My trading system

[BeginnerJoe]

I don't suggest anything - I don't give trading signals - If I did I would charge for them. Another reason why we should not go into partnership Lol

G/L

People always get the wrong idea when I put up a partnerships idea. They always think it is a one way street, but it isn't. Specifically I was offering to make you rich. Who else would do such a thing ? If you don't want the deal it is as much a loss to you as to me. So you don't have to justify why you don't want the deal. I wasn't interested in your strategy in its entirety, just the bit that would complete mine. So a deal would have bought value in both directions.

Giving an advanced trading signal would add some confidence to your claim of 90% accuracy. Otherwise we can all point to a past chart and say we would have bought low and sold high.

 

[counter_violent]

People always get the wrong idea when I put up a partnerships idea. They always think it is a one way street, but it isn't. Specifically I was offering to make you rich. Who else would do such a thing ? If you don't want the deal it is as much a loss to you as to me. So you don't have to justify why you don't want the deal. I wasn't interested in your strategy in its entirety, just the bit that would complete mine. So a deal would have bought value in both directions.

Giving an advanced trading signal would add some confidence to your claim of 90% accuracy. Otherwise we can all point to a past chart and say we would have bought low and sold high.

This is number 2 in my 2012 list. Kin priceless...no really !




Just highlight it all !

 

[BeginnerJoe]

**** sake's Joe.

First you wanted statements !

Now you want videos !

I hope you don't want a video of teh hare, bringing up the rear !

The hare prides himself at never contributing but always tagging along. So I doubt he would ever have a video. But you can be sure he's at the rear looking on with great interest. You on the other hand seem keen to give me a video for my learn to trade from youtube thread. You have already done so before with someone else's videos. So, at your convenience please !

 

[Liquid validity]

Who said lulz was dead

 

[the hare]

The hare prides himself at never contributing but always tagging along. So I doubt he would ever have a video. But you can be sure he's at the rear looking on with great interest. !

Amazingly for once, you are right !

I try not to contribute, t2w causes enough damage without me encouraging them. I don't have a video either !

Wherever there is lulz, I'll be watching

 

[counter_violent]

The hare prides himself at never contributing but always tagging along. So I doubt he would ever have a video. But you can be sure he's at the rear looking on with great interest. You on the other hand seem keen to give me a video for my learn to trade from youtube thread. You have already done so before with someone else's videos. So, at your convenience please !

Ok Joe, suppose at some point i'll have to reveal how I got to the top.

 

[neil]

The hare prides himself at never contributing but always tagging along. So I doubt he would ever have a video. But you can be sure he's at the rear looking on with great interest. You on the other hand seem keen to give me a video for my learn to trade from youtube thread. You have already done so before with someone else's videos. So, at your convenience please ![/QUOTE]

Joe -really! Enticing Hare to meet you in a toilet

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Ok Joe, suppose at some point i'll have to reveal how I got to the top.

I didn't know you were at the top. Do you mean the top of your local bowling league ?

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Here ya go. I called out short and I have the pips to show for it. If people prove their claims by call outs, I'd have no need for statements.

It was a slow trade and less interesting than watching paint dry. I'll run it a bit more with a trailing stop.

 

[Dimtrad]

First off - indicators or any tech analysis for that matter is not predictive. Seccondly the ones that tend to say they don't 'work' tend be those that haven't found them useful themselves. thirdly - the clue is in the name -'indicators' - they indicate that one thing may happening over another and I understand how I use them and what they may be telling me. Lastly - I use indicators - they help to tell me something that price alone cannot in the market I trade in - I have set-ups involving indicators that have a 90% strike rate of a successful outcome - but like all set-ups (repeating patterns) they have to be validated by price action itself. (I won't be showing them on an open forum - they are part of my trading edge and as such I regard it as intellectual property.)

It's a misleading and overly simplistic argument to say 'indicators' don't 'work period.'

G/L

I agree, it is pretty simple to design an indicator with 90% strike rate, for example 200 days or any number of days moving average. When the price goes below buy and sell when it recovers, the strike rate is phenomenal on indices, the drawdowns too.
The problem with most indicators is that they either do not work or can not be traded profitably with the acceptable level of risk. As I mentioned before, the markets are fairly efficient so while there are some patterns that can be exploited these are quickly discovered and eliminated.

 

[Dimtrad]

I am eager to hear what that balance is like for you, and how you make up that balance ? How you would measure those 'probablitities' you're talkin about.

regards

Well, nothing sofisticated here I calculate the highest point that the price can reach given the current volatility of the instrument and put my trades above that point. I also look at the overall market and make a judgement call. For example I would look at the live cattle futures and make a call that prices probably won't reach 1.21 in the next month or so, the reasoning for this is that corn prices seem to be going down which is supportive for live cattle. If I am wrong with this call the market gives me plenty of time to adjust my position or get out. In addition the account is diversified so bad judgement calls do not hurt that much.

 

[Dimtrad]

Unless proven with actual consistent profits over an extended period, I suspect whatever he's using would be no better than anything else he tried in the past. The fact he's asking for opinions suggests he isn't sure, presumably because the result remains inconsistent.

No, the results are very consistent the whole point of this strategy is to generate consistent profits. The reason for this post is to discuss the strategy with people who are trading something similar, there is always something new to learn.
I have been quite successful with my previous trading - CFDs on indices and commodity futures in fact I am still trading them, however I needed a strategy which could generate consistent profits month in and month out with limited risk and which could accommodate a sizeable trading account.

 

[Shakone]

Which volatility do you use Dimtrad, historical or implied? (P.S. volatility is an indicator of sorts)

 

[counter_violent]

Ok Joe, suppose at some point i'll have to reveal how I got to the top.

 

[BataviaTrader]

Which volatility do you use Dimtrad, historical or implied? (P.S. volatility is an indicator of sorts)

source

Types of Volatility Indicators

Based on Daily Range (High - Low)

Chaikin Volatility

Volatility Ratio

Average True Range

Price compared to Moving Average

Volatility

Bollinger Bands

 

[BataviaTrader]

Well, nothing sofisticated here I calculate the highest point that the price can reach given the current volatility of the instrument and put my trades above that point. I also look at the overall market and make a judgement call. For example I would look at the live cattle futures and make a call that prices probably won't reach 1.21 in the next month or so, the reasoning for this is that corn prices seem to be going down which is supportive for live cattle. If I am wrong with this call the market gives me plenty of time to adjust my position or get out. In addition the account is diversified so bad judgement calls do not hurt that much.

Interesting, thanks for explaining. I am looking forward to read the rest of the story.

happy trading.

 

[Dimtrad]

Which volatility do you use Dimtrad, historical or implied? (P.S. volatility is an indicator of sorts)

I use implied volatility, but to be honest it does not really matter too much as the system allows for the big margin of error. For example at the moment DAX is at 7200 my bet is that it won't go higher than 7700 in the next month or so. This trade is considered higher risk than normal as DAX has recently touched 7400 area, but should be a good indicator of the logic behind trade selection.

 

[bbmac]

I don't need to add confidence as I am not selling the signals it generates, so I care little of whether the claim is believed or not. Also as you speak of accuracy - for it's sake - If you read my first post on this thread I said I have some set-ups with a 90% strike rate. My edge is composed of various different repeating set-ups and their repeating combinations in repeating opa circumstances on the relevant t/f's - not all of these set-ups have achieved a 90% strike rate.

Just out of interest what bit would complete your own 'strategy' that you are missing - this presumably standing in your own way of becoming 'rich' through your trading endeavours ? Also in such a partnership with me or anyone else for that matter- what exactly are you bringing to the deal that you are so sure would '...bring value in both directions...' and make such a partner and presumably yourself 'rich' - and that you assume is critically lacking from say a trading edge that produces consistent reliable gains from the market ?


G/L

People always get the wrong idea when I put up a partnerships idea. They always think it is a one way street, but it isn't. Specifically I was offering to make you rich. Who else would do such a thing ? If you don't want the deal it is as much a loss to you as to me. So you don't have to justify why you don't want the deal. I wasn't interested in your strategy in its entirety, just the bit that would complete mine. So a deal would have bought value in both directions.

Giving an advanced trading signal would add some confidence to your claim of 90% accuracy. Otherwise we can all point to a past chart and say we would have bought low and sold high.

 

[bbmac]

Well as we get paid on exits not entries - having that part of an edge is good - ie I presume that you have a particular proven strategy when it comes to risk and trade management that enables you to obtain such superior results?

I have to say that for my own part I spent so long on developing the entry set-ups that I forgot about the exit strategy - and so that part of my edge was arguably the hardest won. I am therefore not in need of of a trade management strategy for my edge and I have the risk strategy covered too.

Bets of luck in finding the missing bit of your edge.

G/L

I am only missing high probability entry. I have no need for anything else. I will find what I look for eventually by myself. It would save me some time if someone with more experience but non-optimal results wants to team up. So I bring to the table superior results for people who are unable to convert their good entry to good profits. The hare needn't apply because I know his entry is too weak. Coin tossing is no less lulzy than most other entry methods.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Well as we get paid on exits not entries - having that part of an edge is good - ie I presume that you have a particular proven strategy when it comes to risk and trade management that enables you to obtain such superior results?

I think you are too concerned about getting paid. So long as you avoid losing, getting paid is inevitable. It's neither the function of the entry nor the function of the exit alone. Apart from sizing, trade and risk management are non-critical for my strategy. The superior results will come from a superior understanding of the market for what it is. Anyone seeing my views about the market would no doubt consider those to be strange. There lies my edge.

My short in EURUSD has been knocked out at +17 pips. I am now long. The price is curling up very nicel presumably to resume the up trend. Let's see how it runs.