My Story

[Signalcalc]

Hi all,

This is my story and thoughts, I am not proficient in trading and anything I state is just borne from my own experience and thoughts - I started trading in August 2015, so now I have been trading and learning for about 10 months and still consider myself as a newbie.

From the word go I started with Elliot Wave, no other knowledge or training involved, I took all my signals from EW providers such as EWI, EWT, EWF etc.

I didn't use, and wasn't really aware of, the concepts of money management, trading psychology, financing positions, or much else to do with trading other than how to place trades using UK spreadbetting.

In 6 weeks I went from zero to hero, from a £3.5K starting account to nearly £40K p/l, I wasn't using stops and I was over leveraged across any one of the 50 markets I was trading (£125 pp at one time), also I was over confident and over trading, I was fitting trading in with a full-time job and holidays, much was suffering, I had no spare time as I was watching the markets and losing sleep checking my phone etc. Yet I was winning, I had calculated how long it would take to pay off my mortgage and was heading for the moon

Then came the mistakes, only 2 trades, the markets changed and I had losing positions, the account went negative and I was adding money from my savings to keep the trades open (using no stops), I was one of the numpties with the illusion that the market would turn in my favour.

I kept this up for 6 weeks before I finally cracked as my funding was too far extended and the financing costs were horrendous, I closed the positions leaving some money in the account to be able to continue trading, but I had lost a good amount of my savings. So now I was on the down coaster and losing more sleep, figuring out how to make up for these losses.

Then guess what - the markets turned in my favour, within a couple of days price was heading towards where my trades were, 2 months later I would have been sitting on the moon

So one blown account and I embarked on one of the steepest learning curves of my life, not just learning about how to trade like a professional would but how to deal with the psychology of the losses I'd sustained. Luckily it was money I could afford to lose, but massively gutted nonetheless and it will take me a while to reach breakeven now.

I have experienced fear, greed and illusion, 3 deadly enemies of successful traders.

So now I have ditched EW and tried many different methods of trading, I have found (so far) a single consistent technical method to make profits that does not interfere with my lifestyle or work and I can concentrate on it, I have discovered that I am a mechanical trader taking technical signals, no discretion, some finesse and a few rules across a select few instruments, for me it's just a numbers game, the statistics over the long term should bear this out. Combine this with the massive lessons I have learnt in psychology, discipline, consistency and money management, it's early days but I hope I will become one of the 5-10% that stay in the game and be profitable even if not full time.

So my advice to any other newbies is, don't rush in, the markets always have opportunities, they vary from 80% ranging to 20% trending, there will be drawdowns, be in it for the long term and expect to grow your account slowly, take some time to understand yourself as a trader and a style that suits you, there are no shortcuts or holy grails, you will need to learn to lose money and dealing with this is one of the keys to becoming successful, have a plan and stick to your rules, find a way of trading that does not disrupt your life too much, beware of snake oil and don't trade with money you really can't afford to lose. The longer you can stay in the game by using money management, discipline and sorting your psychology, the better the chance you will of finding a way of trading to make you money.

And for me at least, I don't even pretend to understand how the markets work (the professional forecasting services show how difficult that can be), that may come in time, but you need to understand how your trading (and the brokers) works first before attempting to understand how the markets are 'manipulated'.

Cheers !

 

[timsk]

I wasn't using stops and I was over leveraged across any one of the 50 markets I was trading (£125 pp at one time)

Hi Signalcalc,
Welcome to T2W - excellent debut post - most entertaining.

The part I've quoted makes you one double hard ar$e so 'n so with cajones made of solid steel. If I traded like that I'd have to wear nappies. As for holding down a job when you've got £125 on the line, that's just class! On a more serious note, like anyone else who reads your tale, long before the end, one just knows that it won't end well. A part of me was hoping that you turned the £40k into £400k and then a million and that you're now leading the life of riley. One day, someone will make that post!

The one thing that I didn't quite understand was why you ditched the EW methodology? Is there any merit in sticking with it, but this time applying sensible risk and money management strategies? Anyway, I'm glad you've got out relatively unscathed and, hopefully, have learnt the lessons necessary so you won't repeat the same mistakes in future.

Hope you enjoy the forum and I look forward to hearing how your trading progresses.
Tim.

 

[purple_turtle]

Nice post - think we have all had those winning streaks where we start mental car shopping, before it all crashes down.

I guess the big question is will you learn from it? Or will, if it happens again, will you just get caught up in the moment again?

 

[Signalcalc]

Hi Signalcalc,
Welcome to T2W - excellent debut post - most entertaining.

The part I've quoted makes you one double hard ar$e so 'n so with cajones made of solid steel. If I traded like that I'd have to wear nappies. As for holding down a job when you've got £125 on the line, that's just class! On a more serious note, like anyone else who reads your tale, long before the end, one just knows that it won't end well. A part of me was hoping that you turned the £40k into £400k and then a million and that you're now leading the life of riley. One day, someone will make that post!

One day....

The one thing that I didn't quite understand was why you ditched the EW methodology? Is there any merit in sticking with it, but this time applying sensible risk and money management strategies? Anyway, I'm glad you've got out relatively unscathed and, hopefully, have learnt the lessons necessary so you won't repeat the same mistakes in future.

Hope you enjoy the forum and I look forward to hearing how your trading progresses.
Tim.

I found EW useful for understanding how the markets could be, but difficult to trade when screen time is limited, also low number of signals and unproductive in ranging markets.

 

[Signalcalc]

Nice post - think we have all had those winning streaks where we start mental car shopping, before it all crashes down.

I guess the big question is will you learn from it? Or will, if it happens again, will you just get caught up in the moment again?

Good question, my logical brain says I will stick to my mechanical methods, my creative brain tempts me to do to otherwise. Where does discipline belong.

 

[nickycambo]

Without too much detail (obv not wanting to reveal edge etc) what method have you settled on using for trading?

 

[Signalcalc]

Without too much detail (obv not wanting to reveal edge etc) what method have you settled on using for trading?

I am using a proprietary mechanical system, that provides signals from overnight action on a few select pairs in FX, the signals provide a bias for the following days action.

It's something I can do around around a day job requiring less than an hours screen time each day split throughout the day. It's early days as I've only been trading it for 3 weeks and the markets have been a bit choppy, but it seems to be providing around 55% win rate with an R:R of at least 1:1. So far this month is +700 pips, earlier in the year when markets were trending well it was apparently producing 2000-4000 pips/month, unfortunately I wasn't on board at that time (always the way )

But 3 weeks is not long enough to be able to evaluate this system, I will need around 6-12 months to be able to provide a better evaluation.

 

[nickycambo]

I am using a proprietary mechanical system, that provides signals from overnight action on a few select pairs in FX, the signals provide a bias for the following days action.

It's something I can do around around a day job requiring less than an hours screen time each day split throughout the day. It's early days as I've only been trading it for 3 weeks and the markets have been a bit choppy, but it seems to be providing around 55% win rate with an R:R of at least 1:1. So far this month is +700 pips, earlier in the year when markets were trending well it was apparently producing 2000-4000 pips/month, unfortunately I wasn't on board at that time (always the way )

But 3 weeks is not long enough to be able to evaluate this system, I will need around 6-12 months to be able to provide a better evaluation.

Would be interested to hear more about your background, type of work you do for your day job, education etc.

 

[nickycambo]

I am using a proprietary mechanical system, that provides signals from overnight action on a few select pairs in FX, the signals provide a bias for the following days action.

It's something I can do around around a day job requiring less than an hours screen time each day split throughout the day. It's early days as I've only been trading it for 3 weeks and the markets have been a bit choppy, but it seems to be providing around 55% win rate with an R:R of at least 1:1. So far this month is +700 pips, earlier in the year when markets were trending well it was apparently producing 2000-4000 pips/month, unfortunately I wasn't on board at that time (always the way )

But 3 weeks is not long enough to be able to evaluate this system, I will need around 6-12 months to be able to provide a better evaluation.

Oh and keep up the effort. Sounds like you have learned a hard lesson as so many others do yet have persevered to find a potential decent strategy. Well in.

 

[options-george]

But 3 weeks is not long enough to be able to evaluate this system, I will need around 6-12 months to be able to provide a better evaluation.

Thanks for sharing your story on the forum - very interesting!

Are you able to test the performance of the strategy without spending 6-12 months collecting data of how it works? (I assume this might be difficult because it is based on proprietary signal/system)

I would also carefully assess the claims that the system vendors are making - I checked out one last year and found that they were clearly overstating their performance. See this thread fyi http://www.trade2win.com/boards/educational-resources/203290-alpesh-patel-newsletter-daily-setups.html

O-G

 

[Signalcalc]

Would be interested to hear more about your background, type of work you do for your day job, education etc.

I've added a few details to my forum profile.

For study, I'm pretty good at traditional and new Elliot Wave now, although definitely not an expert. I know about Harmonic patterns, supply and demand, trend lines, indicators, harmonic elliot wave, a few traditional TA patterns such as head and shoulders etc, also Fibonacci levels that go hand-in hand with EW and Harmonics.

I also looked at NVP's correlation techniques and a few other theories and things.

All of which make sense before, during and after the fact, but I hope to have found my own style of trading to fit with my lifestyle and will stick with mechanical signals and a rules based approach and if the stats work then that will be good enough for me, I may bring some discretion in at some point in the future and refine my approach as that does appear to bring more success, but more forward testing is required for that.

Options look like an err option, but I will tread carefully until I know what I'm doing.

Maybe some techniques can be combined.

 

[vanillaman]

Hi all,

This is my story and thoughts, I am not proficient in trading and anything I state is just borne from my own experience and thoughts - I started trading in August 2015, so now I have been trading and learning for about 10 months and still consider myself as a newbie.

From the word go I started with Elliot Wave, no other knowledge or training involved, I took all my signals from EW providers such as EWI, EWT, EWF etc.

I didn't use, and wasn't really aware of, the concepts of money management, trading psychology, financing positions, or much else to do with trading other than how to place trades using UK spreadbetting.

In 6 weeks I went from zero to hero, from a £3.5K starting account to nearly £40K p/l, I wasn't using stops and I was over leveraged across any one of the 50 markets I was trading (£125 pp at one time), also I was over confident and over trading, I was fitting trading in with a full-time job and holidays, much was suffering, I had no spare time as I was watching the markets and losing sleep checking my phone etc. Yet I was winning, I had calculated how long it would take to pay off my mortgage and was heading for the moon

Then came the mistakes, only 2 trades, the markets changed and I had losing positions, the account went negative and I was adding money from my savings to keep the trades open (using no stops), I was one of the numpties with the illusion that the market would turn in my favour.

I kept this up for 6 weeks before I finally cracked as my funding was too far extended and the financing costs were horrendous, I closed the positions leaving some money in the account to be able to continue trading, but I had lost a good amount of my savings. So now I was on the down coaster and losing more sleep, figuring out how to make up for these losses.

Then guess what - the markets turned in my favour, within a couple of days price was heading towards where my trades were, 2 months later I would have been sitting on the moon

So one blown account and I embarked on one of the steepest learning curves of my life, not just learning about how to trade like a professional would but how to deal with the psychology of the losses I'd sustained. Luckily it was money I could afford to lose, but massively gutted nonetheless and it will take me a while to reach breakeven now.

I have experienced fear, greed and illusion, 3 deadly enemies of successful traders.

So now I have ditched EW and tried many different methods of trading, I have found (so far) a single consistent technical method to make profits that does not interfere with my lifestyle or work and I can concentrate on it, I have discovered that I am a mechanical trader taking technical signals, no discretion, some finesse and a few rules across a select few instruments, for me it's just a numbers game, the statistics over the long term should bear this out. Combine this with the massive lessons I have learnt in psychology, discipline, consistency and money management, it's early days but I hope I will become one of the 5-10% that stay in the game and be profitable even if not full time.

So my advice to any other newbies is, don't rush in, the markets always have opportunities, they vary from 80% ranging to 20% trending, there will be drawdowns, be in it for the long term and expect to grow your account slowly, take some time to understand yourself as a trader and a style that suits you, there are no shortcuts or holy grails, you will need to learn to lose money and dealing with this is one of the keys to becoming successful, have a plan and stick to your rules, find a way of trading that does not disrupt your life too much, beware of snake oil and don't trade with money you really can't afford to lose. The longer you can stay in the game by using money management, discipline and sorting your psychology, the better the chance you will of finding a way of trading to make you money.

And for me at least, I don't even pretend to understand how the markets work (the professional forecasting services show how difficult that can be), that may come in time, but you need to understand how your trading (and the brokers) works first before attempting to understand how the markets are 'manipulated'.

Cheers !

It is guys like this that keep the beast that is the FX Spot market fed. Is it wonder I am like Jesus trying to get the crowd trading derivatives. Head to this thread to follow the discussion

Anyway, this fella here is claiming that he was ripping out of some broker bookie nearly 40k and decides to add insult to injury by posting it in a forum. Look at it this way, I needed to have a meeting with a specific broker when I started ripping cash out of them just so they understood they must hedge me at all times in the market. They appreciated the heads up. Anyway I largely trade Option derivatives so all this spot is no consequence to me. These kind of lies are poisonous.

Going forward I think you should really have some soul searching. There are some underlying issues maybe from childhood. Anyway, I guess there is always one.

 

[Signalcalc]

Thanks for sharing your story on the forum - very interesting!

Are you able to test the performance of the strategy without spending 6-12 months collecting data of how it works? (I assume this might be difficult because it is based on proprietary signal/system)

Unfortunately not able to validate, risky I know as it could turn out to be snake oil and I have paid money for it, I am trading it live after a couple of weeks of demo trading, but I know that 2 weeks is not long enough, in fact 1/2/3 months is not long enough to be able to evaluate properly, which is why I will give it 6-12 months to state if it works as expected.

Gut feeling is good, yes risky again, however support is provided through email, telephone and an onsite training course if required, weekly webinars keep up to date with strategy changes and review of trades.

What I have got now is expensive and is split into 2 parts, the first part's profit paid for itself in 6 months which is pretty slow, so I opted for the more involved part which costs more but has the potential to pay for itself more quickly also.

Hopefully I'll be able to make a report about it in a few months on a separate thread.

I would also carefully assess the claims that the system vendors are making - I checked out one last year and found that they were clearly overstating their performance. See this thread fyi http://www.trade2win.com/boards/educational-resources/203290-alpesh-patel-newsletter-daily-setups.html

O-G

I tried Alps end of day signal service for a week (a weeks free trial is all they provide), didn't like it because mistakes were made by the provider (and corrected) and the format was difficult to follow. Also a weeks trial is not long enough to evaluate properly a month is really needed (he says not having tried out the current system I am trading), although the service is cheap enough to try out. I didn't have a great feel for it and it didn't involve me enough in the trading process.

 

[Signalcalc]

It is guys like this that keep the beast that is the FX Spot market fed. Is it wonder I am like Jesus trying to get the crowd trading derivatives. Head to this thread to follow the discussion

Anyway, this fella here is claiming that he was ripping out of some broker bookie nearly 40k and decides to add insult to injury by posting it in a forum. Look at it this way, I needed to have a meeting with a specific broker when I started ripping cash out of them just so they understood they must hedge me at all times in the market. They appreciated the heads up. Anyway I largely trade Option derivatives so all this spot is no consequence to me. These kind of lies are poisonous.

Going forward I think you should really have some soul searching. There are some underlying issues maybe from childhood. Anyway, I guess there is always one.

Haha, I like the way you try to stir things up VanillaIce, you don't rip a broker off when it is only p/l, when you withdraw that cash is when you can say that you 'beat' the broker, unfortunately I lost my p/l before I got to that stage (although at the time my better half was urging me to take it out).

Me - I'm just stupid.

But not stupid enough to deposit my hard earned with an unregulated Cypriot based broker which is the one linked from your website and no doubt the reason why you are posting in this website.

And it seems I'm not the only one with a BS sensor on here (and I've only been on this forum for less than a week)!

 

[vanillaman]

Haha, I like the way you try to stir things up VanillaIce, you don't rip a broker off when it is only p/l, when you withdraw that cash is when you can say that you 'beat' the broker, unfortunately I lost my p/l before I got to that stage (although at the time my better half was urging me to take it out).

Me - I'm just stupid.

But not stupid enough to deposit my hard earned with an unregulated Cypriot based broker which is the one linked from your website and no doubt the reason why you are posting in this website.

And it seems I'm not the only one with a BS sensor on here (and I've only been on this forum for less than a week)!

Awww Signal!, several brokers are based in Cyprus in fact the majority last I checked, and secondly what's this talk of my website? You are seriously funny, of course it has to be mine. Well, if it makes you feel better, you can call it that.

On to "your story" don't deflect attention. Well, we all have dreams. 40k lost it all stories are way too much on the web. Just be honest... what are you selling? At least I am clearly promoting Vanilla Options because I think derivatives are the way to go. I don't favour any broker but the idea needs to be sold. You on the other hand are pure snake oil... :cheesy: Anyway I am sure everyone is thinking the same.

 

[Signalcalc]

Awww Signal!, several brokers are based in Cyprus in fact the majority last I checked

And the advice is to avoid like the plague

On to "your story" don't deflect attention. Well, we all have dreams. 40k lost it all stories are way too much on the web. Just be honest... what are you selling? At least I am clearly promoting Vanilla Options because I think derivatives are the way to go. I don't favour any broker but the idea needs to be sold. You on the other hand are pure snake oil... :cheesy: Anyway I am sure everyone is thinking the same.

You are entitled to your opinion - after all, everyone has one.

Pssst - I'm not selling anything, nudge nudge, wink, wink, say no more

 

[vanillaman]

And the advice is to avoid like the plague




You are entitled to your opinion - after all, everyone has one.

Pssst - I'm not selling anything, nudge nudge, wink, wink, say no more

I am glad you agree to free speech. My time here will be fun I can see. A den of the misguided and liars selling snake Oil. So let's gain perspective here.

Cyprus is a tax haven, so brokers like it, who can blame them. Secondly you have too much faith in the FCS (FSA's compensation scheme) that caused you to make that statement. Brokers only need prove they are solvent, most have FCA regulation through limited licences anyway. Remember the FSA rules come from Europe that also governs Cypriot rules. So Cyprus regulation is not really that different from the UK only one party wants broker business, the other rather have hedgefunds and investment banks. So you see... your knowledge is quite limited in the matter.

The other point is, if you think tax havens are bad then you clearly have no concept of real money. My money in a Cypriot broker means I can wire it to an offshore bank account and it would be like the asset was not liquidated in the UK at all. While of course for tax reasons in the UK or US this will present issues, this is taxable gain. So tell me how did the tax go for for your 40k worth of gains? Good thing you gave it all back.

Anyway I am tired, quite a few people deceiving, I didn't expect that at all... Like I said I will enjoy my stay.

 

[Signalcalc]

Cyprus is a tax haven, so brokers like it, who can blame them. Secondly you have too much faith in the FCS (FSA's compensation scheme) that caused you to make that statement. Brokers only need prove they are solvent, most have FCA regulation through limited licences anyway. Remember the FSA rules come from Europe that also governs Cypriot rules. So Cyprus regulation is not really that different from the UK only one party wants broker business, the other rather have hedgefunds and investment banks. So you see... your knowledge is quite limited in the matter.

The other point is, if you think tax havens are bad then you clearly have no concept of real money. My money in a Cypriot broker means I can wire it to an offshore bank account and it would be like the asset was not liquidated in the UK at all. While of course for tax reasons in the UK or US this will present issues, this is taxable gain. So tell me how did the tax go for for your 40k worth of gains? Good thing you gave it all back.

Anyway I am tired, quite a few people deceiving, I didn't expect that at all... Like I said I will enjoy my stay.

You appear to be inventing conversation out of nothing and making assumptions and then answering your own questions and assumptions.

For what purpose?

Just to answer your one question that is directed at me, my unrealised £40K would have been tax free if it was realised as it was made through UK spreadbetting.

 

[vanillaman]

You appear to be inventing conversation out of nothing and making assumptions and then answering your own questions and assumptions.

For what purpose?

Just to answer your one question that is directed at me, my unrealised £40K would have been tax free if it was realised as it was made through UK spreadbetting.

Hey signal, I am pulling you leg I am sure you made your 40k from spread betting it is a shame you couldn't keep it. Let's be honest, you probably made 4k in a few months and then lost it all. However, that does not tell a good story... 40k sounds a lot better, really hammers the point home.

Well, I am sure as you keep spread betting you will make another 40k and lose it all. Like I said in the thread about Vanilla Options, that seems to have got so many going, even though I didn't invent it. It is better to trade derivatives than the spot market, that's the reality. So all the advice is no good. I use to make liquidity at a point in time and there is no way you will sustainably make money in spot FX. That's the truth.

 

[Signalcalc]

Hey signal, I am pulling you leg

All's well then

I will take a look at options as I never rule anything in or out and demo trading binaries is going well so I may have a flair for that kind of thing.