my journal

[Yamato]

Today I met one of these Roman taxi drivers. Not Polanski, Roman from Rome I mean. It was the usual unpleasant experience. I mean the real Roman ones suck really badly. They just suck. Rude. Animals basically. So that's why I gambled I think.

 

[Yamato]

1) time is 15.00 to 20.00 CET
1) it's your first discretionary trade today (you can't trade discretionary outside this system)
2) your entry and your take profit are >=10 ticks away from any pivot lines
3) you've looked at "correlated" chart (3 months to 1 hour): no LONG/SHORT if you think markets are highly OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD
4) the 225-period ma is in favor by > 10 ticks
5) the 15-period ma gets crossed by price (in favor) after being on the other side >= 4 minutes


I am ignoring #2 not being met.

 

[Yamato]

Only have time for another 50 minutes to make my entry, until 20.00 CET.

 

[Yamato]

This is hilarious - I gambled compulsively for three hours, and now I am switching into a different personality, the "sniper". I'll now wait patiently for the signal, to fulfill all requirements above (except #2).

 

[Yamato]

Too close to the the slow moving average to make any trades. Other than that, I can trade in either direction, long or short.

 

[Yamato]

Damn... it's going up. Why didn't I just leave it open? Because I was in gambling mode, and I had no confidence whatsoever about my trade.

I can't take this signal. I have to wait for the second one, 10 ticks above the slow average.

 

[Yamato]

If it works, and I make my target with those 2 contracts, I'll get above the 6k capital. Forget about the fact that today with my other trades, I risked losing my usual 2000 dollars.

 

[Yamato]

I'll be back in 10 minutes to execute the LONG signal hopefully.

 

[Yamato]

No, wait, this is terrible. The pivot line is at 1.4650. The slow average will be at least at 1.4615. So this means I can only take a LONG signal at 1.4625. But then the take profit will be at 1.4645, which is NOT 10 ticks lower than 1.4650, and so that means that I cannot take a LONG signal in the next 40 minutes, because those will be the areas concerned.

So I can only hope for a short signal. Yes, because I am totally a gambler, but if I have to execute this system I stick by the rules (except #2).

1) time is 15.00 to 20.00 CET
1) it's your first discretionary trade today (you can't trade discretionary outside this system)
2) your entry and your take profit are >=10 ticks away from any pivot lines
3) you've looked at "correlated" chart (3 months to 1 hour): no LONG/SHORT if you think markets are highly OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD
4) the 225-period ma is in favor by > 10 ticks
5) the 15-period ma gets crossed by price (in favor) after being on the other side >= 4 minutes

 

[Yamato]

Be back in 10 minutes to execute a SHORT signal, hopefully.

 

[Yamato]

No, wait: each fall lasts about 20 minutes. And each rise lasts about 10 minutes. (I am talking about today).

So...at best the next SHORT signal will be in 30 minutes, which is beyond my 20.00 CET limit. So I can't trade with my system today, because I missed those two awesome signals, that would have made money. Cause i was busy gambling. You moron!!!

 

[Yamato]

And had i stayed in my position, with confidence, now I'd be making 500. But I gambled, so I neither made the sniper money, nor the gambling money, because from the whole recipe was lacking the confidence ingredient.

 

[Yamato]

That's what my systems do: have few ideas, few statistics on their side, but they stick by them, and so they work. Once your confidence is gone, you cannot be profitable.

So I'd like to gamble so badly right now, to make back some money, but I cannot: why? Because gambling is a recipe that doesn't contain the confidence ingredient. It's basically drunken trading, and being drunk... well, anyway. **** gambling, **** me. **** me, as usual. And **** the ****ing diaz brokers.

Closing all charts for the day. The week is over. I am doing ok: better than last friday, despite the gambling relapses. Capital at about 5800.

 

[Yamato]

Today the system would have given me a bunch of good signals and just one or two bad signals, had I followed it. Instead, even if I had been at home, I would have said "too oversold", and would have avoided the signals. I am going to get rid of that rule that says "if it looks oversold stay out". The good signals in yellow, and the red signals are the bad ones. Only the first one would have lost, because the second one would still be open.



Had I been at home, trading 2 contracts, and with the right mind, today I could have made 3000 dollars (500 times 6) just by going WITH the trend. Even if I counted the last bad trade, I would have still made 2500, thereby doubling my capital. 50% in one day, executing every sniper signal. Next time I want to go into gambling mode, I should think of simply executing every single sniper signal, especially if markets are moving like today.

Then of course, I am forgetting the pivots, which might have kept me out of a couple of trades. So probably the good trades would have been about 4, instead of 6. And I'd also have to include the bad trade... for an overall profit (with 2 contracts) of 1500. Yep. From now on, if I'll be in the right state of mind, I can definitely count on making 500 every single day just being disciplined. Do I want that money?

Anyway, here's the new system, modified:

HOTKEYS
"B" for "buy 1 at market" with 20 ticks bracket order,
"S" for "sell 1 at market" with 20 ticks bracket order,
"C" for "close position".
----------------------
CHARTS
SET UP THESE CHARTS ON IB'S TWS:
3 MONTHS TO 15 MINUTES OF ES, CL, GBP, ZN "line" mode
2 DAYS OF EUR.USD@IDEALPRO 15-minutes CANDLES WITH PIVOTS
4 HOURS OF EUR.USD@IDEALPRO 1-MINUTE CANDLES WITH 15-periods and 210-periods moving averages
----------------------
RULES
ENTRIES can be made if:
1) time is 15.00 to 20.00 CET
1) it's your first discretionary trade today (you can't trade discretionary outside this system)
2) your entry and your take profit are >=10 ticks away from any pivot lines
3) you've looked at "correlated" chart (3 months to 15 minutes)
4) the 225-period ma is in favor by > 10 ticks
5) the 15-period ma gets crossed by price (in favor) after being on the other side >= 4 minutes
EXITS
Bracket order of 20 ticks.
----------------------
TRADES:
Here's my trades as of today and the time (CET) they took place:
20091130 17.20sh to 17.30sh: takeprofit
20091130 21.50sh to 01.00sh: takeprofit
20091201 17.50sh to 18.50sh: early exit +1
20091202 18.40sh to 00.15sh: stoploss
20091203 08.10sh to 08.30sh: takeprofit
20091204 10.40sh to 13.00sh: early exit -5
20091207 16.10sh to 16.30sh: takeprofit
20091208 17.30sh to 19.00sh: takeprofit
20091209 18.40sh to 19.00sh: takeprofit
20091210 19.00sh to 20.20sh: stoploss
----------------------
BRACKET ORDER:
Pictures of weapon and some shots I made.
Some shots I missed.

 

[Yamato]

Analogies of traders with snipers (and not)

Killing shot made at distance of 2,430 metres

...Shots out that far are 60 per cent skill and 40 per cent luck, or vice versa," said Bill. "Usually, it takes two or three rounds, sometimes five. "Normally, a sniper wouldn't take that many shots, but they were out so far we felt confident they couldn't tell where we were...

 

[Yamato]

If anything, in the future, I may allow myself to make more than one sniper shot, because no one is actually shooting back at me, and the first shot has no reason to be better than the second shot. So, if I'll have the patience to wait for all those shots, I should make them. For a combined 1000 dollars a day on average (using 2 contracts).

 

[Yamato]

I almost made a trade on the CL, out of frustration, because my dad came and bothered me with questions, but luckily I didn't have the overnight margin for it.

Now, if my dad, with just some useless questions, or just by being in the house, has the power of making me hurt myself, this says a lot about my problem. I basically should not do the sniping on the markets but at my dad. I mean, once I get rid of him, I will trade fine. So maybe I should just focus on sniping at him. Which by the way is what he's being doing to me my whole life:

1. (Military) (when intr, often foll by at) to attack (a person or persons) with a rifle from a place of concealment
2. (intr; often foll by at) to criticize adversely a person or persons from a position of security
3. (Individual Sports & Recreations / Hunting) (intr) to hunt or shoot snipe

That mother ****er. **** him and **** the ****ing diaz brokers.

 

[Yamato]

 

[Yamato]

New ideas... slight changes to Former Sniper System

Coming up next: new changes on the system... and plan for next week. Simple as usual. Not to be followed as usual.

 

[Yamato]