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Yamato
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Sooner or later, I'll lose because one of my trades went close to takeprofit and then turned around and went all the way to my stoploss. It will happen, and I will have to accept it, without changing my rifle. Because it's the same rifle that will have saved me in so many other situations. What I mean is that other times you feel it's not going your way, you close it early, and instead it would have gone your way. So this is my rifle, and I'll keep it the way it is. Unless of course they give me a rifle that is clearly better, but I won't change it for another one that would have done better only in a given situation.
Yamato
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Good one... Not the best one, but I am glad I made my target.
The trade began here:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-journals/72598-my-journal-120.html#post999378
And it ended one and a half hour later. The good trades usually last less than half an hour. This obviously wasn't, because it didn't go my way, but went all over the place before reaching my target:
So far these are my trades with this rifle (recently modified and made a +/- 20 ticks rifle, removing early exits and only allowing one trade per day):
20091130: takeprofit
20091130: takeprofit
20091201: early exit with 1 tick profit
20091202: stoploss
20091203: takeprofit
20091204: early exit with 5 ticks loss
20091207: takeprofit
20091208: takeprofit
Let's get rid of the early exits, since the rule was abolished. Out of 6 trades, five are good. But only 3 of them are "good because good", because they lasted less than 30 minutes and acted according to my predictions. The other 2 are "good because lucky", because they lasted several hours (one last 1 hour and a half, that was today's), markets went all over the place and finally went my way. Maybe not entirely lucky, but not entirely correct either.
If I keep going like this, I would say that, after having taken out those two null trades. I am having an accuracy of over 80%. If I keep going like this for another month or two, I might consider increasing my position to two contracts.
Overall, in less than two weeks, I made 1000 dollars (5-1=4 and 4*250=1000). Apparently, it would not seem much: I was used to making more with my discretionary gambling. Only this time I won't have those -2000 dollars trades every few weeks, which in my old gambling days would not only wipe out all previous gains but also gradually blow out my account.
The trade began here:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-journals/72598-my-journal-120.html#post999378
And it ended one and a half hour later. The good trades usually last less than half an hour. This obviously wasn't, because it didn't go my way, but went all over the place before reaching my target:
So far these are my trades with this rifle (recently modified and made a +/- 20 ticks rifle, removing early exits and only allowing one trade per day):
20091130: takeprofit
20091130: takeprofit
20091201: early exit with 1 tick profit
20091202: stoploss
20091203: takeprofit
20091204: early exit with 5 ticks loss
20091207: takeprofit
20091208: takeprofit
Let's get rid of the early exits, since the rule was abolished. Out of 6 trades, five are good. But only 3 of them are "good because good", because they lasted less than 30 minutes and acted according to my predictions. The other 2 are "good because lucky", because they lasted several hours (one last 1 hour and a half, that was today's), markets went all over the place and finally went my way. Maybe not entirely lucky, but not entirely correct either.
If I keep going like this, I would say that, after having taken out those two null trades. I am having an accuracy of over 80%. If I keep going like this for another month or two, I might consider increasing my position to two contracts.
Overall, in less than two weeks, I made 1000 dollars (5-1=4 and 4*250=1000). Apparently, it would not seem much: I was used to making more with my discretionary gambling. Only this time I won't have those -2000 dollars trades every few weeks, which in my old gambling days would not only wipe out all previous gains but also gradually blow out my account.
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Yamato
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Interesting paradox
What's interesting is that with my sniper's discretionary system, after each trade, I feel a lot of insecurity and fear, but I'm being overall profitable. Whereas with my discretionary gambling, I used to feel confident and cocky throughout the trades, and only a bit in despair in the final part, when I lost 2000 dollars. Or maybe i don't remember it right, and actually I was angry the whole time. Yeah... overall I am much more serene and confident now... no, wait: less confident, but because it's like an exam each time and I have to do my homework, because I want to pass. Before, with my discretionary gambling, I never did any homework, and instead I said to the markets "i dare you to fail me, you mother ****ers!". Just like I did in my student years with most professors.
What's interesting is that with my sniper's discretionary system, after each trade, I feel a lot of insecurity and fear, but I'm being overall profitable. Whereas with my discretionary gambling, I used to feel confident and cocky throughout the trades, and only a bit in despair in the final part, when I lost 2000 dollars. Or maybe i don't remember it right, and actually I was angry the whole time. Yeah... overall I am much more serene and confident now... no, wait: less confident, but because it's like an exam each time and I have to do my homework, because I want to pass. Before, with my discretionary gambling, I never did any homework, and instead I said to the markets "i dare you to fail me, you mother ****ers!". Just like I did in my student years with most professors.
Yamato
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Uncontrolled impulse trade on the EUR (not entirely gambling)
I made an overnight trade outside the system. Sorry. It came as natural as breathing. LONG from 1.4700, takeprofit 1.4730. I am hoping for the usual overnight reversal. I couldn't help helping my systems (automated and discretionary) with what seemed an easy 30 ticks. We'll see tomorrow morning how it went. If it goes well, I'll be beyond 5500 finally, and breathe some oxygen.
How the impulse to trade came to me... maybe
I think I remember vaguely how this impulse trade might have evolved. I was closing my automated systems excel file, and then wrote an email, and while i was typing the address, being used from work, I was typing in, as the addressee, my boss' email address. This reminded me of how badly I want to leave my job, how much I hate the fact that tomorrow I'm having to go to work, and probably at a subconscious level this made me trade in order to achieve my financial freedom a little faster.
These counter-trend overnight trades (all my impulse trades are counter-trend) however, are not half as bad as the intraday counter-trend gambling trades, because reversals do happen at night, at least to some degree, and especially if it's been going in just one direction all day long (down today, on the EUR). So these overnight counter-trend trades are not all about compulsive gambling because probability is indeed on my side. However, I must also add that I didn't add a stoploss, because I'll close it tomorrow morning on a time-based rationale, unless the 30 ticks takeprofit will have been triggered. (But the fact that I didn't add a stoploss of course reminds me that this contradicts everything I have been saying in the past dozens of posts). Even my last trade on the GBP was a good one, but, after watching it all night, I gave up on it and exited with a 200 dollars loss, and a few minutes later it started going in the direction I expected.
In short, it was a gamble, but one with probabilities on my side. I don't like what I've done but I'm desperate for money. Let's say it was something I want to forget about: i don't want it to become a habit. I want to get those 30 ticks during the night, and forget I every made that trade. But I reported it here, because I couldn't just be quiet about it after all I've said about telling the truth, even though the thought of not talking about it crossed my mind.
I made an overnight trade outside the system. Sorry. It came as natural as breathing. LONG from 1.4700, takeprofit 1.4730. I am hoping for the usual overnight reversal. I couldn't help helping my systems (automated and discretionary) with what seemed an easy 30 ticks. We'll see tomorrow morning how it went. If it goes well, I'll be beyond 5500 finally, and breathe some oxygen.
How the impulse to trade came to me... maybe
I think I remember vaguely how this impulse trade might have evolved. I was closing my automated systems excel file, and then wrote an email, and while i was typing the address, being used from work, I was typing in, as the addressee, my boss' email address. This reminded me of how badly I want to leave my job, how much I hate the fact that tomorrow I'm having to go to work, and probably at a subconscious level this made me trade in order to achieve my financial freedom a little faster.
These counter-trend overnight trades (all my impulse trades are counter-trend) however, are not half as bad as the intraday counter-trend gambling trades, because reversals do happen at night, at least to some degree, and especially if it's been going in just one direction all day long (down today, on the EUR). So these overnight counter-trend trades are not all about compulsive gambling because probability is indeed on my side. However, I must also add that I didn't add a stoploss, because I'll close it tomorrow morning on a time-based rationale, unless the 30 ticks takeprofit will have been triggered. (But the fact that I didn't add a stoploss of course reminds me that this contradicts everything I have been saying in the past dozens of posts). Even my last trade on the GBP was a good one, but, after watching it all night, I gave up on it and exited with a 200 dollars loss, and a few minutes later it started going in the direction I expected.
In short, it was a gamble, but one with probabilities on my side. I don't like what I've done but I'm desperate for money. Let's say it was something I want to forget about: i don't want it to become a habit. I want to get those 30 ticks during the night, and forget I every made that trade. But I reported it here, because I couldn't just be quiet about it after all I've said about telling the truth, even though the thought of not talking about it crossed my mind.
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Yamato
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I guess being an obsessive-compulsive trader doesn't help my trading, because just like I do anything obsessively - not exactly: just the things I perceive to be good for me - I'll also have feel the urge to place trades obsessively, because making money is good. The term "obsessive-compulsive", it's not a coincidence, has something in common with "compulsive gambling". I don't care that it's self-diagnosed and that I may not qualify as "obsessive-compulsive" in general, but I qualify as far as my own trading.
Yamato
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Good morning
Oh, what a beautiful morning, oh what a beautiful day
I've got a beautiful feeling everything's going my way.
The trade got executed by one tick. So lucky... the High was 1.4731. Capital is higher now.
Now I'll go to work. And meet with the boss and will tell him: "look, until now I've worried about getting everything done, and well, but since you've kept increasing my share of work and asking for more quality and quantity, now I'll be like everyone else and I won't care about getting it done anymore".
Oklahoma!
Oh, what a beautiful morning, oh what a beautiful day
I've got a beautiful feeling everything's going my way.
The trade got executed by one tick. So lucky... the High was 1.4731. Capital is higher now.
Now I'll go to work. And meet with the boss and will tell him: "look, until now I've worried about getting everything done, and well, but since you've kept increasing my share of work and asking for more quality and quantity, now I'll be like everyone else and I won't care about getting it done anymore".
Oklahoma!
Yamato
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All right... I've spoken to my boss, and maybe he understood some of my points, but as usual he didn't seem to understand how much actually I've been working in terms of quality and quantity. When I said that at this rate I'll start falling behind more and more, he told me "everyone is behind with work" and "you were privileged until now to not be behind" in the sense that now I am behind like everyone else and it's not a big deal. I said that it is a big deal because it's going to be a disaster if I fall behind, since the whole organization of the reports rests on my shoulders, and "I've been privileged because I work better", and "yes, everyone is behind, but most are behind because they don't even do the little work they have, while others are behind because they can't possibly finish everything". I told him how I see everyone around me going for coffee breaks all day long, and I am here having a nervous breakdown because I have to do their work. Also, when he asked about my two days off, thursday and friday, I told him "I was tired". And he asked if I had the medical papers, and I said, "no, look, I was tired - if you want, go ahead and fire me...". That was at the start, because then I went on telling him for half an hour: you either allow me to decrease quantity (which I can't, because we'd all be screwed) or quality, or I'm going to fall behind. We reached some compromise when he told me: from now on don't even read any emails from anyone (with work from other people), just focus on the suspicious transactions reports. It sucks, but it's better than nothing.
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Yamato
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More reasons in favor of sniper trading (one trade per day)
If you trade and you win, you will be excited and confident and you'll be more likely to miss the next trade. So that is why you shouldn't trade a second time during the same day.
If you trade and you lose, you will be upset and thirsty for revenge, and you'll be more likely to miss the next trade. So that is why you shouldn't trade a second time during the same day.
If you trade and you win, you will be excited and confident and you'll be more likely to miss the next trade. So that is why you shouldn't trade a second time during the same day.
If you trade and you lose, you will be upset and thirsty for revenge, and you'll be more likely to miss the next trade. So that is why you shouldn't trade a second time during the same day.
Yamato
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Getting ready for my daily trade... not looking bearish. The GBP is too oversold for EUR to go down anymore, the day looks bullish. Yesterday I was mistakenly thinking it was Wednesday, and saying how Wednesdays are bullish, whereas I did go short and made money. Today is a bullish day. I am waiting for a long signal, in about an hour, above the pivot line.
Yamato
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Closed a quick long on the GBP, for a few ticks, and about 70 dollars profit. I couldn't waste that easy money and the risk was zero, plus the GBP is a small contract. But yes: once again I broke the rules. However, for my survival I am relying on my rifle and my one shot method (yes, it's ridiculous to say so and then trade outside it as much as I feel like it, i realize that), and if I'll ever increase contracts it will be with my one shot method.
Yamato
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Pivot line is at 1.4751. I can only make trades >= 1.4761
1) time is 15.00 to 20.00 CET
1) it's your first discretionary trade today (you can't trade discretionary outside this system)
2) your entry and your take profit are >=10 ticks away from any pivot lines
3) you've looked at "correlated" chart (both 1 month and 15 minutes): can't go long/short if most correlated markets are heavily overbough/oversold
4) the 225-period ma is in favor by > 10 ticks
5) the 15-period ma gets crossed by price (in favor) after being on the other side >= 4 minutes
I did make one extra discretionary trade today, but I am pretending I didn't.
1) time is 15.00 to 20.00 CET
1) it's your first discretionary trade today (you can't trade discretionary outside this system)
2) your entry and your take profit are >=10 ticks away from any pivot lines
3) you've looked at "correlated" chart (both 1 month and 15 minutes): can't go long/short if most correlated markets are heavily overbough/oversold
4) the 225-period ma is in favor by > 10 ticks
5) the 15-period ma gets crossed by price (in favor) after being on the other side >= 4 minutes
I did make one extra discretionary trade today, but I am pretending I didn't.
Yamato
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1) time is 15.00 to 20.00 CET
1) it's your first discretionary trade today (you can't trade discretionary outside this system)
2) your entry and your take profit are >=10 ticks away from any pivot lines
3) you've looked at "correlated" chart (both 1 month and 15 minutes): can't go long/short if most correlated markets are heavily overbough/oversold
4) the 225-period ma is in favor by > 10 ticks
5) the 15-period ma gets crossed by price (in favor) after being on the other side >= 4 minutes
1) it's your first discretionary trade today (you can't trade discretionary outside this system)
2) your entry and your take profit are >=10 ticks away from any pivot lines
3) you've looked at "correlated" chart (both 1 month and 15 minutes): can't go long/short if most correlated markets are heavily overbough/oversold
4) the 225-period ma is in favor by > 10 ticks
5) the 15-period ma gets crossed by price (in favor) after being on the other side >= 4 minutes
Yamato
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Have to be away by 10 ticks from both pivot line at 1.4751
and slow moving average (right now) at 1.4731.
So that means I can't trade for the first from 1.4741 to 1.4761, and for the second from 1.4721 to 1.4741 (right now, because the moving average moves).
So that means that I can only enter > 1.4761 or <1.4721. And now we're at 1.4724.
and slow moving average (right now) at 1.4731.
So that means I can't trade for the first from 1.4741 to 1.4761, and for the second from 1.4721 to 1.4741 (right now, because the moving average moves).
So that means that I can only enter > 1.4761 or <1.4721. And now we're at 1.4724.
Yamato
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It looked bullish to me, but here's what my rules say as far as a SHORT trade:
1) time is 15.00 to 20.00 CET
1) it's your first discretionary trade today (you can't trade discretionary outside this system)
2) your entry and your take profit are >=10 ticks away from any pivot lines
3) you've looked at "correlated" chart (both 1 month and 15 minutes): can't go long/short if most correlated markets are heavily overbough/oversold
4) the 225-period ma is in favor by > 10 ticks
5) the 15-period ma gets crossed by price (in favor) after being on the other side >= 4 minutes
1) time is 15.00 to 20.00 CET
1) it's your first discretionary trade today (you can't trade discretionary outside this system)
2) your entry and your take profit are >=10 ticks away from any pivot lines
3) you've looked at "correlated" chart (both 1 month and 15 minutes): can't go long/short if most correlated markets are heavily overbough/oversold
4) the 225-period ma is in favor by > 10 ticks
5) the 15-period ma gets crossed by price (in favor) after being on the other side >= 4 minutes
Yamato
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Still looks to me like a long day. Because the "correlated" ES, CL, and GBP look so oversold, and yet they're almost positive for the day. This looks bullish to me. If it is indeed so, my signal will come in another hour. Just like a sniper I'm having to spend the whole day or at least a few hours for just one good shot.
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