Atilla
Legendary member
- Messages
- 20,848
- Likes
- 4,028
Only way for Sterling to rise against anything let's say rest of the world or any index are;
UK inflation < Rest of World
UK B o P > Rest of World ie eXports > iMports
UK has +ve Hot capital flows
UK Interest Rates > Rest of World (this is same as +Hot K flows)
Anything else is just goodwill opinion factored in based on some expectations theorem at a guess. :whistling
Considering we have a positive flow in Services with finance being a big contributor it is not unrealistic for the market to factor this in thus a deteriorating BoP is very much a high probability and thus the big hit on the pound seen already by as much as up to 20+ % already.
Been a quiet start to the week and tomorrow is series of eu pmi related data that isn't particularly interesting. If there are major deviations across much of it then I will be dabbling but will refrain from trading it otherwise. Will be tuned to the news feeds for any brexit or trump sentiment that can be traded.
Wednesday, besides the weather reporting it will likely be the hottest day of the week has some opportunities. We have ausi cpi for the quarter and this will provide a clue on the direction of q3. The BOA are currently in a hold stance and waiting on data before policy changes. They have stated rates are likely to go up next but also note it will only be in 2019. If the cpi data is good it might bring forward expectations of a hike and that should be ausi positive. So long as trade war sentiment doesn't offset anything, we could have a trading opportunity.
Later in the eu session we have German sentiment. This indicator has dropped off significantly from 115 to 101. If there is a pickup then we should see some reaction in the euro but it needs to be significant for the reaction to have legs. If not we might get 15 to 20 pips on a good deviation to the upside.
Later in the day is crude inventories. Saudi Arabia have said they are not going to increase production much to affect prices. If there is miss on extectation to either side we should get an opportunity in cad. Will have to see what sentiment is on the day to pair it with a counterpart.
Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk
Wednesday, besides the weather reporting it will likely be the hottest day of the week has some opportunities. We have ausi cpi for the quarter and this will provide a clue on the direction of q3. The BOA are currently in a hold stance and waiting on data before policy changes. They have stated rates are likely to go up next but also note it will only be in 2019. If the cpi data is good it might bring forward expectations of a hike and that should be ausi positive. So long as trade war sentiment doesn't offset anything, we could have a trading opportunity.
Later in the eu session we have German sentiment. This indicator has dropped off significantly from 115 to 101. If there is a pickup then we should see some reaction in the euro but it needs to be significant for the reaction to have legs. If not we might get 15 to 20 pips on a good deviation to the upside.
Later in the day is crude inventories. Saudi Arabia have said they are not going to increase production much to affect prices. If there is miss on extectation to either side we should get an opportunity in cad. Will have to see what sentiment is on the day to pair it with a counterpart.
Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk
Tomorrow is AU cpi, a key piece of data that could being their hike forward. The question is the current trade war going to affect an opportunity.
https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/us-to-hold-hearings-on-china-tariffs-on-july-24-25-20180723
No word on the outcome of this yet and news could coincide with CPI data so there are risks that would offset at least temporarily any positive cpi data point. It's tempting but the time is rubbish so will opt for an early morning start instead of staying up for it. If the data is good and no news on this meeting or other trade war related news that might mess with sentiment, then we should see at least a modest reaction as the eu session kicks off. I am however reluctant and it would need to be a major deviation because I have been only moderately successful trading off an earlier news release. I think my issue has been context to be fair such as the data point not being significant enough for a follow through. For this reason I will only participate on a significant deviation.
Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk
https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/us-to-hold-hearings-on-china-tariffs-on-july-24-25-20180723
No word on the outcome of this yet and news could coincide with CPI data so there are risks that would offset at least temporarily any positive cpi data point. It's tempting but the time is rubbish so will opt for an early morning start instead of staying up for it. If the data is good and no news on this meeting or other trade war related news that might mess with sentiment, then we should see at least a modest reaction as the eu session kicks off. I am however reluctant and it would need to be a major deviation because I have been only moderately successful trading off an earlier news release. I think my issue has been context to be fair such as the data point not being significant enough for a follow through. For this reason I will only participate on a significant deviation.
Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk
P
postman
Now I have (some) scruples, and I won't crash someones thread just to have a pop at them BUT (theres always a but) you lied in order to make yourself look like a victim.
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/indices/120172-anyone-scalping-ftse-futures-5740.html#post3053252
And when I called you out on it rather than man up and admit you lied (or made a mistake heaven forbid) you thought you'd just ignore it and it would go away.
If you cant admit your mistakes on an anonymous forum the market is going to eat you alive, because your broker wont let you put him on ignore when you make a trading mistake!
My last word on the matter on this thread.
More on aus cpi
https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/aud-trader-heads-up-for-cpi-data-due-soon-preview-20180724
Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk
https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/aud-trader-heads-up-for-cpi-data-due-soon-preview-20180724
Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk
Trading approach
I trade what I believe (right now) based on what the markets are doing and follow all the usual processes to reach a decision. When I get the process right, then I make some money. I have developed my own style of trading that works for me through trial and error ( I am basically self taught). My time frame for been in a trade(s) varies a lot from minutes to days. The currency pairs I prefer to trade are: AUD/USD, NZ/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/USD and sometimes GBP/USD and USD/CAD. Those six are enough to keep up with and mostly have good spreads. I use both fundamental and technical analysis to help in my trading processes.
I like the lifestyle trading brings and enjoy working from a home office after working for around 27 odd years in the Corporate world. I also do a few hours accounting work each week (for private clients).
Hi FXX
I trade what I believe (right now) based on what the markets are doing and follow all the usual processes to reach a decision. When I get the process right, then I make some money. I have developed my own style of trading that works for me through trial and error ( I am basically self taught). My time frame for been in a trade(s) varies a lot from minutes to days. The currency pairs I prefer to trade are: AUD/USD, NZ/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/USD and sometimes GBP/USD and USD/CAD. Those six are enough to keep up with and mostly have good spreads. I use both fundamental and technical analysis to help in my trading processes.
I like the lifestyle trading brings and enjoy working from a home office after working for around 27 odd years in the Corporate world. I also do a few hours accounting work each week (for private clients).
Oscar Reed
Senior member
- Messages
- 2,485
- Likes
- 739
So I didn't stay up to trade it and the deviation was 0.1 softer than expected. Had anyone been around it was worth at least 20 pips but not much more and doubtful there will be any follow through this morning. What it does give us is a currency we can use to pair as a weaker counterpart. So if the German business climate data out this morning is a deviation to the upside and is significant enough then we could pair it with aud, so euraud for a trade.
Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk
Thanks Bluedog. You are living my dream buddy. Hoping to be able to give up work in the not too distant future. Giving myself a 10 year target (trying to be realistic) but hoping to get there sooner. Hope we can discuss interesting topics and feel free to chip in if you fancy it.
Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk
Oscar Reed
Senior member
- Messages
- 2,485
- Likes
- 739
I didn't take you for a vegetarian Oscar
Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk
Not a vegetarian, but do love them mate
No growth in Aussie apart from government costs.
http://theconversation.com/government-spending-explained-in-10-charts-from-howard-to-turnbull-77158
AUD data
Shorted the AUD against USD just after the Consumer Price data came out at 1.30pm (NZ time) when it shot upwards then dropped nicely. Sold at 74.41 and brought at 74.01 (3 full contracts). Had an set a limit of 40 pts so closed out automatically. Got this one right!
I use IG markets so your broker may have slightly difference quotes and range during this time.
Shorted the AUD against USD just after the Consumer Price data came out at 1.30pm (NZ time) when it shot upwards then dropped nicely. Sold at 74.41 and brought at 74.01 (3 full contracts). Had an set a limit of 40 pts so closed out automatically. Got this one right!
I use IG markets so your broker may have slightly difference quotes and range during this time.
i think i have only been around for a couple of AU releases to trade. When i eventually go full-time i will definitely make the effort to trade them especially on days like today with little other news so i can sleep in. Nice little trade you had there. 3 full contracts, a couple of those a week - happy days. I have a question. I am going to give myself another 4 months before i get that warm fuzzy feeling and the confidence to start ramping up my account size. I should be able to pump £500 a month into the account every month in addition to its own growth. When you were in my position, how did you approach it? The last thing i want is to start throwing more capital at this and the money factor throws my success off track?
Ecb today and it has a boring forecast but all eyes will be focused on the conference. Let's recap the last few months. Note
- increasing inflation rate.
- increasing core consumer prices
- increasing m2 money supply
- increasing producer prices
- slowing services pmi
- modest increase in manufacturing pmi
- slowing construction pmi
- mostly flat business confidence
- decreasing economic sentiment
- consumer sentiment unchanged but still a negative reading
- a sharp increase in consumer spending
It's a mixed bag with some indicators pointing to a slowdown while others showing improvement. A highlight is the inflation rate with modest monthly increases and is sitting dead on the ecb target of 2%. There has been a noted slowdown and this was highlighted in the last meeting with inflation expectations for the months ahead to slow. I think we will see another wait and see event but with highlights of improvement and unchanged forecasts. I can't see there being any scope given the mixed data for changes in forward guidance on bringing forward or extending rate hikes but we might get something new on ending QE sooner. They must be somewhat concerned that they do not have the interest rate tool at a level that gives them scope for the next downturn that is due in the USA in the next 1 to 2 years (end of the business cycle and their longest expansion on record). This to me is the most interesting part because they will need to play catchup else have to resort to other tools if there is a recession in Europe. China have stated they are expecting a slowdown over the next couple of years. Recession tea is definitely brewing.
I will not be touching the rate announcement but will be pulling up statement wording and comparing it with the last as well as the speaches and questions. Hopefully this isn't a no event even though the general expectations are that it will be.
Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk
- increasing inflation rate.
- increasing core consumer prices
- increasing m2 money supply
- increasing producer prices
- slowing services pmi
- modest increase in manufacturing pmi
- slowing construction pmi
- mostly flat business confidence
- decreasing economic sentiment
- consumer sentiment unchanged but still a negative reading
- a sharp increase in consumer spending
It's a mixed bag with some indicators pointing to a slowdown while others showing improvement. A highlight is the inflation rate with modest monthly increases and is sitting dead on the ecb target of 2%. There has been a noted slowdown and this was highlighted in the last meeting with inflation expectations for the months ahead to slow. I think we will see another wait and see event but with highlights of improvement and unchanged forecasts. I can't see there being any scope given the mixed data for changes in forward guidance on bringing forward or extending rate hikes but we might get something new on ending QE sooner. They must be somewhat concerned that they do not have the interest rate tool at a level that gives them scope for the next downturn that is due in the USA in the next 1 to 2 years (end of the business cycle and their longest expansion on record). This to me is the most interesting part because they will need to play catchup else have to resort to other tools if there is a recession in Europe. China have stated they are expecting a slowdown over the next couple of years. Recession tea is definitely brewing.
I will not be touching the rate announcement but will be pulling up statement wording and comparing it with the last as well as the speaches and questions. Hopefully this isn't a no event even though the general expectations are that it will be.
Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk
In my first few years of trading, I had to top up my account balance a number of times before I finally became profitable consistently. Although I was right in my trades around 90% of the time, I still was losing money as my losses were larger than my profits. When I fix this issue by using better money management processes and taking less risk, things changed. For me, the most important part of my trading is following my processes, no matter what size my account balance is. In my view, in order to trade for a living, you need a large account balance to handle the times you are wrong and make a decent profits without risking to much. Adding more money to your account, should not change the way you trade but you could increase the size of your contracts depending on your risk tolerances.