My FX Journal - 80% Fundamental 20% Technical

Thank you for answering.. interesting insights and I like the blended approach to the trade. Do you trade in anticipation of the news or off the reaction? 20 pip hard stop is impressive given the volatility that often accompanies these events. Nimble fingers required!


a good news feed makes all the difference. Metastock Zenith gives you millisecond releases and ransquawk breaks down the heavy lifting for you by dissecting the important info. you also need a broker that wont screw with you during these releases. i am normally sitting with a quote screen up next to Zenith with the pairs i want access to buy or sell right next to each other. every second counts
 
Good comments and I agree about broker.. the amount of requotes in and out and platform "freezes" leads to intense angst particularly when trying to cover in profit! (I did trade full time for a bit whilst on "sabbatical".
I am in a full time job atm and hence don't trade the news because you have to be on the ball!
Thanks for posting though as I have gleaned some good info which has helped me in my approach to markets.
 
a good news feed makes all the difference. Metastock Zenith gives you millisecond releases and ransquawk breaks down the heavy lifting for you by dissecting the important info. you also need a broker that wont screw with you during these releases. i am normally sitting with a quote screen up next to Zenith with the pairs i want access to buy or sell right next to each other. every second counts

Thanks. I have used financial juice (free) with its feed....not bad imho. Gives you a feel of the squawk even if a little delayed so you can watch price reaction. Also keeps you company...sad I know unless you have budgie, gerbil or dog etc as trading can be a lonely pursuit!
 
Good comments and I agree about broker.. the amount of requotes in and out and platform "freezes" leads to intense angst particularly when trying to cover in profit! (I did trade full time for a bit whilst on "sabbatical".
I am in a full time job atm and hence don't trade the news because you have to be on the ball!
Thanks for posting though as I have gleaned some good info which has helped me in my approach to markets.


I also work full-time and using the economic calendar i can work a profitable trading schedule around my daily job. I couldn't trade otherwise as you need to be tapped into the market all day. It is fantastic to be able to focus on working but being able to set alarms for T-minus 5 mins before news to catchup and prep for a trade. I think there is a market for this type of trading because you can avoid having to have charts up all day. I do have news feeds running but that's to capture opportunities within sentiment shifts. You don't need to do that however and can just look at news trading on it's own. Going into every week knowing exactly when i might be trading is tremendously advantageous.
 
Good comments and I agree about broker.. the amount of requotes in and out and platform "freezes" leads to intense angst particularly when trying to cover in profit! (I did trade full time for a bit whilst on "sabbatical".
I am in a full time job atm and hence don't trade the news because you have to be on the ball!
Thanks for posting though as I have gleaned some good info which has helped me in my approach to markets.

In my industry working on your own is the way to go - i am surrounded by incompetence and find it extremely stressful dealing with people especially ones holding a seat of management. To give you an idea of how bad it is, i have almost 20 years experience working within data (databases, data warehouses, big data, programming). I am an architect and the head architect has zero data experience coming from a security background yet she is designing data architectures. Half my day is spent spoon feeding her as she can't even hold a technical conversation. you can't make this stuff up!!

working in isolation - heaven in my books
 
In my industry working on your own is the way to go - i am surrounded by incompetence and find it extremely stressful dealing with people especially ones holding a seat of management. To give you an idea of how bad it is, i have almost 20 years experience working within data (databases, data warehouses, big data, programming). I am an architect and the head architect has zero data experience coming from a security background yet she is designing data architectures. Half my day is spent spoon feeding her as she can't even hold a technical conversation. you can't make this stuff up!!

working in isolation - heaven in my books

Feel for you...I have worked at every level bar the "C" suite but I am the boss at my level and encourage an atmosphere of teamwork and lighthearted banter...works wonders
 
Trade for today

No news on calendar so was looking at sentiment. There was a gap down in oil (wti) which fits the fundamentals as opec have increased production by a million barrels per day. Price seemed to work its way back up to Friday's high which just didn't make any sense. Seen it as a fairly low risk trade so shorted at 69.30 and just closed at 68.30 which is the lower end of the range.

So no news just an opportunity that presented itself as price didn't align with fundamentals. The trigger for me on this was research I did and uncovered an article that disclosed hedge funds trimming oil positions. Haven't made a hundred pips in a while and a great start to the week.

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Trade for today

No news on calendar so was looking at sentiment. There was a gap down in oil (wti) which fits the fundamentals as opec have increased production by a million barrels per day. Price seemed to work its way back up to Friday's high which just didn't make any sense. Seen it as a fairly low risk trade so shorted at 69.30 and just closed at 68.30 which is the lower end of the range.

So no news just an opportunity that presented itself as price didn't align with fundamentals. The trigger for me on this was research I did and uncovered an article that disclosed hedge funds trimming oil positions. Haven't made a hundred pips in a while and a great start to the week.

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Good job on the 100 pips!

I was short on the GBP/USD last week and grabbed an 80 pip move. Got greedy and stayed in far too long and got stopped out the next day haha.

To be fair I was just getting into the market for the sake of being in it. I'd be more likely to spend more time getting back into trading if I had an position open.

Fun times!
 
Good job on the 100 pips!

I was short on the GBP/USD last week and grabbed an 80 pip move. Got greedy and stayed in far too long and got stopped out the next day haha.

To be fair I was just getting into the market for the sake of being in it. I'd be more likely to spend more time getting back into trading if I had an position open.

Fun times!

Cheers, I don't normally trade it directly but the opportunity was there alongside an empty economic calendar.

Try avoid those "for the sake of trading" moments. It's the hardest thing to get rid of, at least it was for me and I still have to fight it occasionally. This is another reason I like using a schedule because it keeps me out of trouble. The other thing that's going to keep getting you is greed for more profit. I use the average daily range as a guide but also sentiment (if it wanes I am out of the trade). Best to start your journey back to trading without those bad habits. How's the job going?

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Cheers, I don't normally trade it directly but the opportunity was there alongside an empty economic calendar.

Try avoid those "for the sake of trading" moments. It's the hardest thing to get rid of, at least it was for me and I still have to fight it occasionally. This is another reason I like using a schedule because it keeps me out of trouble. The other thing that's going to keep getting you is greed for more profit. I use the average daily range as a guide but also sentiment (if it wanes I am out of the trade). Best to start your journey back to trading without those bad habits. How's the job going?

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Yeah, I hear you man.
I need to make more time for trading homework. Been all over the place lately. I have the time, I just need to organise it better.

Job is going ok I guess. I have the next stage of training later this week but I'm already getting restless there. The money is just so bad...

I moved over here to work as many hours as possible. Instead of making up for lost time, I'm feeling like I'm wasting it working there since the wages are so low and progression will take too long. I've already put my feelers out for a job working in a college. Hoping to have a coffee with a head of one of the department's this Friday to discuss what might be available/suit me.

I really just want to add some new skills to my repertoire and save up some decent money to trade with.

Going to take 1 or 2 pairs and just focus on those. Maybe watch oil.

How's things on your end? Any exciting or out of the ordinary news?
 
Yeah, I hear you man.
I need to make more time for trading homework. Been all over the place lately. I have the time, I just need to organise it better.

Job is going ok I guess. I have the next stage of training later this week but I'm already getting restless there. The money is just so bad...

I moved over here to work as many hours as possible. Instead of making up for lost time, I'm feeling like I'm wasting it working there since the wages are so low and progression will take too long. I've already put my feelers out for a job working in a college. Hoping to have a coffee with a head of one of the department's this Friday to discuss what might be available/suit me.

I really just want to add some new skills to my repertoire and save up some decent money to trade with.

Going to take 1 or 2 pairs and just focus on those. Maybe watch oil.

How's things on your end? Any exciting or out of the ordinary news?

It takes time to get on your feet. The challenge is finding a job that enables you to trade and those are generally none client facing. Things my side are okay, trading going well but I have a long way to go before I can start thinking about this full-time. Next year I will definitely supliment my daily commute with a first class upgrade using trading profits. That's about as exciting as my life gets these days. Its all work work work.

What's your trading plan?

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It takes time to get on your feet. The challenge is finding a job that enables you to trade and those are generally none client facing. Things my side are okay, trading going well but I have a long way to go before I can start thinking about this full-time. Next year I will definitely supliment my daily commute with a first class upgrade using trading profits. That's about as exciting as my life gets these days. Its all work work work.

What's your trading plan?

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First class...why not I suppose!
I've become acutely aware of how bad the rail system is here. Been on trains that all of a sudden decide we are not going where we said we'd take you...waiting on trains that don't arrive... haha. Welcome to blightly, eh!

I was going to to ask you where you felt you are at with your trading. It's interesting to see you say you have a long way to go... you are light years ahead of me, so, that just puts into perspective the size of the mountain in front of me.

I don't have a developed trade plan just yet.
I think I'd like to swing trade instead of day trade. Or at least trade the 8/12/24hr TF's. Still not sure yet so need to sit down and decide.

What I do know though is that I need to incorporate more fundamentals and be less technical. This journal has been very useful to me.

I need to understand the economies I am looking to trade, and then build up an understanding of where their tier 1 data was, is, and be ready to take opportunities when new data enters the field of play. I need to understand sentiment better too of course.


Any suggestions/guidance on what 2 pairs I should focus on?
 
First class...why not I suppose!
I've become acutely aware of how bad the rail system is here. Been on trains that all of a sudden decide we are not going where we said we'd take you...waiting on trains that don't arrive... haha. Welcome to blightly, eh!

I was going to to ask you where you felt you are at with your trading. It's interesting to see you say you have a long way to go... you are light years ahead of me, so, that just puts into perspective the size of the mountain in front of me.

I don't have a developed trade plan just yet.
I think I'd like to swing trade instead of day trade. Or at least trade the 8/12/24hr TF's. Still not sure yet so need to sit down and decide.

What I do know though is that I need to incorporate more fundamentals and be less technical. This journal has been very useful to me.

I need to understand the economies I am looking to trade, and then build up an understanding of where their tier 1 data was, is, and be ready to take opportunities when new data enters the field of play. I need to understand sentiment better too of course.


Any suggestions/guidance on what 2 pairs I should focus on?


yeah with first class 9/10 chance of a seat both ways.

where i am at with my trading. I think i was lucky to be given quality guidance early on by professional traders. what i mean by having a long way to go is in reference to being adequately funded to see the financial benefit of my dedication and effort. i think i will need at least 100k min to make this work full-time - i have no idea how long it would take.

i feel that progress is being made daily but still have some elements that requires work like trading after news. i have been thinking giving it more time but considering how well i am doing with news trading, it is probably for the best that i drop it and focus on cementing my news trading process. i want to start increasing my trade size but before i do that i want the process to be as natural as possible. i am still trading small, 10 pence per pip and have taken a 400 pound account to over 700 in a year. i would probably be over 800 if i didn't trade outside of news. i am putting some of my income aside to pump in when i am ready and even then it will be a gradual process.

the last thing i need is to derail success by shifting focus onto money too early. therefore i shall increment by 10 pence a pip every 10% of account growth up to 1 pound per pip. at this stage i will increase by 50 pence a pip up to 3 pounds at which point i'll start risking closer to 2%. at the moment i am risking roughly 0.3% per trade. yeah i know its chump change but it has grown the account well all things considered.

you wont go wrong with adding fundamentals as your primary trade strategy with technicals only coming into play for entry and managemt. i know 2 professional traders doing this with swing trading 4 hour charts. personally i found that type of trading uncomfortable and perhaps its my personality or just inadequate skills to pull it off. i tried it for several months without success at the beginning. thinking about it now, i might have given it too little time. trading that way only gives you a small number of trades a month which isn't a bad thing but means it takes much longer to acquire the skills through mistakes. maybe ill visit it again but not before i have reached a good level of maturity and on a second account or even demo - why waste valuable capital that could be used to earn instead of learn.

if you are looking to only trade a couple of pairs you should know you are missing out on other opportunities. it isn't difficult following fundamentals of 8 major economies which give opportunities every week. so keep this in mind as it will become psychologically important to feeding your greed. you could be sitting around waiting for a fundamental catalyst and news comes out for another economy and all you can do is watch it knowing you not getting any of it.imagine how that would make you feel and how it will probably force bad habits which will drain your account.

all i can suggest is in context to what i do so you need to discover what type of trader you are so long as it is driven by fundamentals which are the driving forces of this market. each type of trading has its advantages and disadvantages. swing trading takes longer to refine the process because it is so slow. news trading is fast and requires real-time access to news feeds whereas swing trading could be delayed feeds which are cheaper. given your funding is limited you probably will opt for swing trading so prepare to take much longer to get where you want to be as a trader.

oh and i do advise you get a second opinion on what i suggest because i am still learning myself. just ensure it is from someone who knows what they are doing with fundamentals. Lee has a thread you could utilise and has offered to help anyone willing to learn. he is well beyond my skill set and has what looks to be a big account. Brumby is another but haven't seen him about for a while.

all the best pal
 
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yeah with first class 9/10 chance of a seat both ways.

where i am at with my trading. I think i was lucky to be given quality guidance early on by professional traders. what i mean by having a long way to go is in reference to being adequately funded to see the financial benefit of my dedication and effort. i think i will need at least 100k min to make this work full-time - i have no idea how long it would take.

i feel that progress is being made daily but still have some elements that requires work like trading after news. i have been thinking giving it more time but considering how well i am doing with news trading, it is probably for the best that i drop it and focus on cementing my news trading process. i want to start increasing my trade size but before i do that i want the process to be as natural as possible. i am still trading small, 10 pence per pip and have taken a 400 pound account to over 700 in a year. i would probably be over 800 if i didn't trade outside of news. i am putting some of my income aside to pump in when i am ready and even then it will be a gradual process.

the last thing i need is to derail success by shifting focus onto money too early. therefore i shall increment by 10 pence a pip every 10% of account growth up to 1 pound per pip. at this stage i will increase by 50 pence a pip up to 3 pounds at which point i'll start risking closer to 2%. at the moment i am risking roughly 0.3% per trade. yeah i know its chump change but it has grown the account well all things considered.

you wont go wrong with adding fundamentals as your primary trade strategy with technicals only coming into play for entry and managemt. i know 2 professional traders doing this with swing trading 4 hour charts. personally i found that type of trading uncomfortable and perhaps its my personality or just inadequate skills to pull it off. i tried it for several months without success at the beginning. thinking about it now, i might have given it too little time. trading that way only gives you a small number of trades a month which isn't a bad thing but means it takes much longer to acquire the skills through mistakes. maybe ill visit it again but not before i have reached a good level of maturity and on a second account or even demo - why waste valuable capital that could be used to earn instead of learn.

if you are looking to only trade a couple of pairs you should know you are missing out on other opportunities. it isn't difficult following fundamentals of 8 major economies which give opportunities every week. so keep this in mind as it will become psychologically important to feeding your greed. you could be sitting around waiting for a fundamental catalyst and news comes out for another economy and all you can do is watch it knowing you not getting any of it.imagine how that would make you feel and how it will probably force bad habits which will drain your account.

all i can suggest is in context to what i do so you need to discover what type of trader you are so long as it is driven by fundamentals which are the driving forces of this market. each type of trading has its advantages and disadvantages. swing trading takes longer to refine the process because it is so slow. news trading is fast and requires real-time access to news feeds whereas swing trading could be delayed feeds which are cheaper. given your funding is limited you probably will opt for swing trading so prepare to take much longer to get where you want to be as a trader.

oh and i do advise you get a second opinion on what i suggest because i am still learning myself. just ensure it is from someone who knows what they are doing with fundamentals. Lee has a thread you could utilise and has offered to help anyone willing to learn. he is well beyond my skill set and has what looks to be a big account. Brumby is another but haven't seen him about for a while.

all the best pal



Nooooooooooooooooooooo!
I had to swallow my niavity and accept that I'll have to save up 10k to trade with... there's no chance in hell that I'll save 100k up this side for 40 years...I'll be 71 then hahah

I wish I had some in-person guidance!
I have however been quite lucky to have Brumby helping me (and some of the rest of you) but I was too green to get more out of it. On saying that, he did in still some solid stuff and also beat some things out of me...so I definitely benefited greatly from him.
If you are looking to take on a grasshopper when you get to where you want to be, consider me ;)

It's been really interesting to read your journal. Watching the Ray Dalio video on YouTube on how the economy works (Short/Long-term debt, GDP etc) shifted the way I understood the FX market, but listening to you is filling in some of the gaps.

Your account progress has been soild so far. 400 to 700 in a year like... hopefully you can continue at that pace with the injection of more funds over time as you grow as a competent trader.

I still haven't sat down and thought things through in detail. I guess starting with 2 pairs and then when I understand and have my methods down correctly, then increase the number of markets.

As you said, I need to figure out what sort of trader i am...
I'll figure out some stuff before I go pestering Lee. I don't have the money for live feeds but I'll look I to getting delayed ones, which will suit swing trading anyway.

I do get opening a closing wraps from Anton Kreils group each day, so I should make a point of reading them more often. And start writing stuff down too.

Anyway, keep your journal coming buddy!
 
Risk off tone in the market today. Asia session had the Chinese emperor warning provinces to get ready for a trade war. This is the first time I believe he has upped his rhetoric on trade war.

-> President Xi Jinping … reportedly spent over two hours talking about U.S.-China relations
-> Called on all provinces and ministries to be prepared for a full-scale trade war
-> China expects it is inevitable the U.S. will impose tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods on July 6
-> China will respond accordingly with tariffs
-> In the short term, officials expect the currency will weaken due to trade concerns
-> The PBOC also will refrain from increasing holdings of U.S. Treasuries and, in fact, will seek to reduce them "appropriately"


Asia stock markets all red, EU starting mixed but also moving full scale red.

Currently short USDJPY from 109.89 (stop break even) - keeping a very close eye on EU stock markets and any other sentiment driving news that could shift to a risk on tone. The trade war story isn't new and markets are getting used to them now. That being said the emperor stepping up his rhetoric is a significant development.
 
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Been pretty busy the last 2 days and will continue tomorrow. Last night I shorted audcad off the back of Poloz questions showing a hawkish stance. Basically he said individual data points won't disrupt their view (last weeks bad data) and that they are very confident and in a rate rising environment. With trade issues ongoing the ausi has been under stress so it was a good pairing of strong vs weak. Closed that for 50 pips a short while ago.

I probably won't be posting tomorrow due to work commitments.

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just an FYI - i haven't forgotten about the forum, i am just busy working on exciting distributed in memory data grid technology at work and have been burning the candle on both ends working on it. I am still trading but a little less than normal although i haven't had any time to post. Hopefully will have more time towards the end of the week.
 
Hi FXX, i have enjoyed reading your trading journal. I find it interesting to read how other traders operate and what their thoughts/opinions are. I have been trading FX for over 5 years now, last two basically full time. Its a challenge for sure! All the best and keep posting (if u can).
 
Back to posting


No news on the cards for the day so it was all about sentiment. Brexit turmoil Monday is the name of the game today. I didn't trade Davis resignation but did hear on the wire that Johnson just resigned. Immediately shorted sterling against euro. Currently up 50 pips with a stop at 25 (in profit)

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