My forecasts by EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, GOLD

[strategist]

How to use forecasts based on the "Strategist" trading system

Content:
1. Forecasts update frequency
2. Forecasting time frames / term of the forecast
3. What the system is using (basis of the trading system)
4. Opening positions
5. Variants of events to develop
6. Designation of trend lines



1. Forecasts update frequency
Forecasts are updated regularly on the basis of relevancy. Forecasts won’t be updated (current forecast remains valid) until the pair will reach targets given in the forecast, or the technical picture will change dramatically.


2. Forecasting time frames / term of the forecast
Forecasts are given over two time frames: H4 and Daily (forecasts over time frames lower than H4 are not given). Forecast relevancy (reaching the target of the pair) over H4 time frame lasts for a period of three to seven days. For Daily time frame this period varies from two weeks to a month (sometimes more).
A strategic target of the pair is given over Daily time frame, and a local target is given over H4 (relative to Daily; H4 time frame represents internal waves of the trend from Daily time frame). Therefore, there are two presentations: a strategic (long-term) and a local one (short-term).


3. What the system is using (basis of the trading system)
The "Strategist" trading system uses classic trends and figures of technical analysis.
Examples of trends:

Trends are being built basing on trend lines.

Examples of figures:

Figures are being built basing on trend lines, just like trends are.


4. Opening positions
A position is opened when a trend line gets broken (when the pair breaks a trend line and then goes for 30 pips in the same direction). A stop loss is set behind a trend line. Upon breaking of every trend line or trend, a new target is formed, and the market has to reach it.

An example of trend breaking:

The breaking of a trend line/trend/figure can be a false one when, after the breaking, the pair repeatedly breaks the same trend line without reaching the pair’s target. In case of the false breaking the forecast becomes irrelevant.

Breaking of trend lines at daily time frames is connected with releases of important news. Sometimes a trend line can be broken before news is released but, as a rule, such breaking proves to be a false one and the true breaking happens after news release.


5. Variants of events to develop
In forecasts multiple variants of events to develop are suggested at once. Variants come true in case of breaking either one or another trend line. Each variant takes place under a specific condition (causal connection), which should be satisfied in order to realize the variant.

An example of forecasting:
GBP/USD pair is in “a-a+” ascending trend and is constrained within the range (1.4700 – 1.4940) between two trend lines: “C+” and “D+”. There are 3 variants of events to develop:
1. Variant: the pair breaks “D+” trend line and heads to the target level 1.5800.
This forecast is cancelled in case the pair manages to drop below “D+” trend line after breaking it (indicates a false breaking).
2. Variant: the pair stays in range 1.4700 – 1.4940 between “C+” and “D+” trend lines. Upon bounce off “C+” trend line the pair will head to “D+”, break it and make its way to the target level 1.5800.
This forecast is cancelled in case: see Variant 1.
3. Variant: the pair will not manage to break “D+” trend line. After breaking “C+” trend line and then also “a-a+” trend, the pair will head to the target level 1.4050.
This forecast is cancelled in case the pair won’t be able to develop a descending motion after breaking “a-a+” trend and it will go up above “a” and “C+” trend lines (higher than level 1.4700).
http://forexmillion.com/uploads/posts/1234732378_5-1.gif - img

Forecast result:
http://forexmillion.com/uploads/posts/1234732330_5-2.gif - img



6. Designation of trend lines
Trend lines are designated by letters with only purpose to make it clear for the reader of a forecast which line exactly is described. As a rule, trends at H4 graphs are designated as “a-a+”, at daily graphs as “B-B+”, and at weekly graphs as “C-C+”. The rest of trend lines designations are made arbitrarily.


Trading signals
Trading signals for given forecasts will possibly appear at the site for free access after some time.


RISKS WARNING
Forecasts are not the trading signals! They help to reveal the direction of the market’s motion as well as the market’s future intentions to move along one or another side upon satisfying one or another specific condition. When you trade, rely solely on signals of your trading system; use forecasts only for seeing the market’s prospect and the targets of the market’s motion. The trading radically differs from the forecasting. In the situation when an analyst sees a straightforward motion of the market, a trader can close a number of deals, most of which will probably be unprofitable if a trader will not observe the rules of his or her trading system.
The author of the forecasts is not liable for the results of trading that is guided by offered forecasts.

 

[jeffsmith]

Seeing the graphs of this pair it seems that it is voliatle and can move in any direction.

EUR/USD 1.2763 - 16 February
EUR/USD Open 1.2790 High 1.2940 Low 1.2720 Close 1.2858

Euro/Dollar attempted to drop Friday. The currency couple reached a bottom at 1.2819, but further descending motion was rejected as the pair turned upwards sharply, closing at 1.2858. On the daily chart a reverse hammer is formed, which is an indication of potential turning upward. Signals today, however are downwards in the short term with possible testing of the 1.2720 support level, and neutral in the long term. Next support further down is 1.2950. Immediate resistance is represented by the 1.2950 level. The CCI indicator has crossed down the 100 line on the 4 hour chart, suggesting potential decreasing pressure.
Technical resistance levels: 1.2950 1. 3055 1.3180
Technical support levels: 1.2720 1.2605 1.2515

Trading range: 1.2775 - 1.2710
Trend: Downward
Sell at 1.2763 SL 1.2793 TP 1.2723

 

[strategist]

EUR/USD forecast

H4 graph
The pair is being traded in the "a-a+" half-side half-ascending trend. A trading range 1.2604 - 1.2755 has been formed by numerous resistances from above

and supports from below. I can't say that the pair has an ascending intention right now, because the higher bound of the side daily trend - "B+" trend line -

is crossing the level 1.2770. This trend line will hold up all ascending attempts until it gets broken.
Analyzing the present picture, three variants of events to develop are seen:
1. continuation of trading in the side trend, in 1.2604 - 1.2755.
2. by breaking the lower bound of "a-a+" trend ("a" trend line) the pair heads to the "Z" trend line - level 1.2430 (if the pair drops below 1.2600).
3. by breaking "B+" trend line the pair heads to the level 1.3110 (if the pair rises above 1.2820).

Daily graph
The pair is being traded down the "B-B+" side descending trend, which has a potential to carry the market up to the level 1.2320. I can't tell about a clear

development of any picture unless the pair exits from this trend by breaking its higher bound "B+". If "B+" will get broken and the pair goes above level

1.2840, then reaching of the support at 1.3300 is guaranteed.

 

[strategist]

EUR/USD

H4 graph
The pair is confidently moving along the ascending trend. Trend’s target is at levels between two resistances: 1.3820 and 1.4000, where "Y" trend line passes. I expect a potential turn from those levels. There are no signs of trend’s turn yet, that’s why ascending motion is confident for now.

Daily graph
If signs of trend’s turn appear, the pair will perform a correction to 1.3300, followed by resuming of the ascending trend targeted at testing the "Y" trend line. In case "Y" trend line will get broken, the figure #44 will be the pair’s next target.

 

[strategist]

EUR/USD

H4 graph
The pair had passed the "R" resistance trend line (level 1.3480) and now it's being traded along an ascending trend with the target of growth to level 1.3750. The support is found at level 1.3455; intermediate resistance is at 1.3570. If the pair goes below level 1.3350, an ascending trend is supposed to be replaced by a descending one
Looks trading signals

Daily graph
An ascending trend having the target of growth to the resistance level 1.3750 had been developed at H4 graph. Upon reaching the stated level, there are 3 scenarios of events to follow:

1. If the pair rises above level 1.3800 (breaks the "Y" trend line), then target 1.4360 will be reached.

2. If the pair bounces off level 1.3750 ("Y" trend line), a "double top" turning figure will be formed having its basis at level 1.3112. Upon the bounce off 1.3750 the following is supposed to happen: "M" trend will get broken, figure's basis level and then the support at 1.3112 will be reached, after that the pair will bounce again and grow to level ~1.3650, then break the "Y" trend line and reach level 1.4360.

3. If after the bounce off 1.3750 and reaching the figure's basis at level 1.3112 the pair goes under this level, it will reach an intermediate support and then the main support at 1.2500 ("U" trend line) - the lower bound of the "triangle" figure from weekly graph

Weekly graph

 

[strategist]

EUR/USD

H4 graph
The pair is being traded along a downtrend. It has just exited from the “triangle” figure through its lower bound. Taking to account such a picture, we have 2 variants of events to develop:

1. The pair doesn’t manage to rise above resistance 1.3080; that gives an opportunity of lowering to accumulation of supports around 1.2840–1.2745, and in case the pair drops below the level of support 1.2745, it will reach level 1.2525.

2. Downtrend fades gradually, and the signs of turn show themselves. In such case we should consider switching from downtrend to uptrend only if the pair rises above level 1.3310; if that happens, the pair will reach resistance 1.3370. If the pair passes this resistance and goes up further, it will reach level of the next resistance – 1.3670.

Daily graph
There is a “triangle” figure. Breaking of this figure gives an opportunity to grow, as well as to drop. At the moment euro/dollar is striving to get under the figure’s lower bound, and if the pair doesn’t manage to rise above resistance 1.3080, it will get to support 1.2745. If after that the pair will drop below this support, it will reach level 1.2525.

Another variant takes place if the pair rises above the “triangle” figure’s higher bound – level 1.3370. In this case the pair will reach resistance 1.3690, and if it gets over it, then reaching of levels 1.4100 and 1.4400 is supposed.

 

[strategist]

EUR/USD

H4 graph
The pair is consolidating under the “triangle” figure’s lower bound, being held up by resistance level 1.3080. After “triangle” got broken the market was supposed to rapidly make a leap down, but that didn’t happen – downtrend impulse faded owing to support 1.2898 (the maximum on 02/25/09). Taking this picture to account there are 2 variants of events to develop:

1. The pair rises above resistance 1.3080, which speaks in favor of finishing of the “triangle” model and of the downtrend. Next, upon breaking above level 1.3155 an uptrend will take effect, having the target at resistance level 1.3320 (the higher bound of the “triangle”). A correction to 1.3155 is likely to happen from that level, followed by retesting of level 1.3300. If after that the pair will successfully rise above 1.3350 – a “flag”, figure of trend’s continuation, will take effect and level 1.3570 will become the pair’s target.

2. The pair stays under 1.3080 and then goes below 1.2980 – in such case the pair will get to accumulation of supports between 1.2857–1.2776. In case the last mentioned support will be passed, the pair will head to 1.2525.

Daily graph

 

[jeffsmith]

1,1494. USD CHF is in a consolidation after the last bearish movement. The volatility is high. ForexTrend 1H (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bearish configuration. 1H, 4H ForexSto (Modified Stochastic) indicate a bearish pressure on USD CHF. The price should find a resistance below 1,1570 (76 pips). The downtrend should continue on 1,1400 support (94 pips).
We won't take a position. The risk/reward ratio is too high to take a position.
Resistances
1,1530 - 1,1565
Supports
1,1490 - 1,1400

 

[jeffsmith]

The Euro (EUR/USD) the Euro moved advanced during the Asian session, fell down at the London open, recovered and then fell down in the US session, finally ending the day slightly higher. Volume was low as of the bank holiday in most of Europe and the pair managed to hold more than the 100-day simple moving average. Today, there was a no Euro-zone economic release.

The Pound (GDP/USD) On Friday, cable moved much higher, testing the 1.4900 level at the end, as the Pound rallied after the UK manufacturing PMI beat analysts’ outlook, coming in at 42.9 and on news that mortgages approval gained to the highest level in 10 months in March. The pair increased about 100 pips on the day and closed at the highest level of the week.

The CAD (USD/CAD) Equity markets were closing higher, oil prices ahead almost $2 a barrel and better than estimated US. ISM manufacturing PMI all added to the CAD rising on Friday. Each economic release that gives a sign the global financial crisis may be finding a bottom gives an increase to the Canadian and we have seen the CAD declined for three straight days. The pair plunged 70 pips on the day and closed just over the 200-day simple moving averages.

 

[strategist]

EUR/USD


Daily graph
The pair is being traded along the “C-C+” side downtrend, which in fact is a “flag” trend-continuing figure that has a five-waved structure (in Elliot’s notation). Currently the 4th wave is supposed to be completed, and the 5th one to be started aimed at dropping to accumulation of supports 1.2766–1.2660.

The level, which the pair is being traded at, is a key level because the pair can either go down in the 5th wave, or get over the higher bound of the “flag” figure (1.3350) and then go to resistance level 1.3550. Hence, we will consider two variants of events to develop: #1 – main and #2 – alternative.
#1. The 4th wave is completed; in the 5th wave the pair goes to accumulation of supports 1.2766–1.2660. Development of this variant requires the pair to go under level 1.3190, and then under a key support 1.3010.
#2. The higher bound of the “flag” figure (“C+” trend line) is unable to keep the pair from growing, so after rising above level 1.3350 the pair will head to resistance 1.3550.

Variant #2 is the one I like less, because after leaving the “flag” figure the pair has to rise to level 1.3700, but there is a huge obstacle on the way up – “D+” trend line (level 1.3550), which passes through points of 07/15/08 and of 12/18/08. This is a very strong and important trend line, which can be broken only by a very strong ascending impulse, which obviously is absent at this moment, when the pair is being traded within a correctional wave at H4 graph.

Variant #1 is more favorable for following reasons:
1. Rising higher than 1.3550, the pair won’t get to 1.3700 due to support at 1.3550. Hence it needs to get down to 1.2890 or below, before it will eventually gain strength and develop a strong ascending impulse.
2. The 3rd wave’s completion was caused by the bounce off support level 1.2890, and now the pair is bouncing off higher bound of the “flag” figure, which is identical to level 1.2890 in aspect of strength. So, why wouldn’t the pair complete the 4th wave now, if we also take to account that it’s being traded with a descending attitude?
3. Bounce off the “C+” trend line is accompanied by a turning candle model development, what amplifies the descending potential. And at H4 graph we see that this model is nothing but a “double top” trend-turning figure.




H4 graph
The pair is being traded along the “B-B+” correctional uptrend, it is set against higher bound of the “flag” figure – “C+” trend line (1.3270). A “double top” trend-turning figure is being formed. There are two variants of events to develop:

#1 Main. Upon getting under level of support/“double top” figure’s basis 1.3190, the pair will head to level 1.3010 – “B-B+” trend’s lower bound. Upon getting under 1.3010, the pair will reach accumulation of supports between levels 1.2760–1.2660 (key level).

#2 Alternative. The pair rises above level 1.3350, in such case it will reach resistance 1.3550 (“D+” trend line).

 

[strategist]

EUR/USD

H4 graph
The pair went above level 1.3550 – key resistance had been passed; owing to that, target of the pair’s growth is now set at resistance level 1.3910. Support is at 1.3550.

Daily graph
Level 1.3550 proved to be a key level. The pair’s rising above it led to development of a strong uptrend, having targets of growth set at intermediate resistance 1.3910, target level 1.4230 and then, possibly, at 1.4400. Support is currently at 1.3550.

 

[strategist]

USD/JPY

H4 graph
As we can see at H4 graph, the pair approached support level 96.40 closely – this is the level which coincides with the “head & shoulders” figure’s neckline. Now we’re at the stage of the figure’s right shoulder formation. Bounce off 96.40 is possible; in such case the pair will find a resistance at level 97.90, pushing off which the pair will head to the neckline (96.20) again, continuing the downtrend. But if the pair gets under level 96.05 (under the neckline), the figure will be executed and the pair’s dropping target will be set to level 93.50.

Daily graph
The “head & shoulders” trend-turning figure’s right shoulder formation is in progress. The pair is about to get under level 96.05 (under the figure’s neckline); in such case it will reach the target level 93.50. There are also two target levels below, hence, if the pair drops below 93.50, it will reach target 92.20, and successively the target will be set to level 90.25.

 

[strategist]

EUR/USD

H4 graph
The pair is being traded along a downtrend having the lowering target set to levels 1.3550 and 1.3450. A slight correction takes place now, caused by the bounce off level 1.3800 (the neckline of “head and shoulders”). Levels 1.3953 and 1.4000 (gap level) are the resistances; the pair is supposed to turn from those levels soon. To gain a continuing down-trending impulse, the pair needs to get down below levels 1.3800 and 1.3700 again, what will lead to dropping to target levels 1.3550 and 1.3450. However, this lowering may be quite wavy, since the pair is moving along the 4th correctional wave (this is clearly seen on daily graph).

GBP/USD

H4 graph
Level 1.6240 ("H" trend line) has unleashed its force again making the pair go for a correction. But current trend is still a downtrend with the lowering target set to level 1.5900 (due to the fact that the pair is being traded below the lower bound of “B-B+” daily uptrend). The pair is supposed to find a resistance at level 1.6580 (crossing of “B” and “K” trend lines), but also it may start going down before getting to this level. Unlike the rest of main pairs, GBP has lesser down-trending impulse against dollar owing to the picture over EUR/GBP, where we can see a rapid dropping of that pair.
In order to reinforce the pair’s down-trending attitude, it needs to get under support 1.6240 (“H” trend line), and then under level 1.6100 (crossing of “Z” and “P” trend lines). After that the pair will get to 1.5900 (the lower bound of “C-C+” weekly uptrend).

GOLD

H4 graph
Gold is being traded below level 944 (below the neckline of “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure), what speaks in favor of getting to target level 903 in nearest future (within the “a-a+” uptrend). Resistance is found at level 944 once again.

 

[strategist]

EUR/USD

H4 graph
The pair is being traded along side trend that is turning to a downtrend due to the pair's lowering below level 1.3900. In addition, the trading goes within a "down-trending triangle" figure ("C-C+" red channel) that implies developing of a downtrend with lowering target set to support level 1.3550, which is the main lowering target by the moment. However, execution of "triangle" upon exit below level 1.3690 will empower developing of a more deep downtrend, which will have lowering target set to level of a strong support 1.3285, and also probably to 1.3160. But those levels should be considered later, basing on situation over the market. Up to this moment, the situation in dollar is generally saying about dropping to level 1.3550, and we should be expecting that to happen in nearest future.

GBP/USD

H4 graph
The pair reached resistance level 1.6580, what caused very massive sells. After that it went under level 1.6460 ("a+" trend line), clearing the way for dropping to support 1.6250 ("P" trend line) that the pair is currently moving to. Basically, situation is favorable for lowering below level 1.6250 after passing support 1.6190 (the minimum of 06/18/09). Breaking of support 1.6190 will also set the lowering target to level 1.6050 ("C" trend line).

USD/CHF

H4 graph
The pair couldn't get any lower than support level 1.0780 and then went above level 1.0800 ("Y" trend line), what speaks about the pair's intention to test resistance level 1.0940 ("triangle" figure's higher bound). Next, the pair will rise above this level and get a growing target at level of intermediate resistance 1.1030 ("K" trend line; because the pair is being traded above the higher bound of "B-B+" daily downtrend). Level 1.0940 will become a support then. After getting over level 1.1030 the pair will get a growing target to key resistance levels 1.1145 - 1.1245. Currently support is at level 1.0800.

GOLD

H4 graph
Gold is being traded below level 944 (below the neckline of “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure), what speaks in favor of getting to target level 903 in nearest future (within the “a-a+” uptrend). Resistance is found at level 944 once again.

 

[strategist]

EUR/USD

H4 graph
The pair had bounced off level 1.4200 (“E” trend line) again, what lead to emerging of another massive selling wave (which was confident this time).

The pair went under level 1.4035 and broke the lower bound of “a-a+” 4-hours uptrend on its way down, setting the pair’s lowering target to support level 1.3850 (“neckline”) – right where we are now moving to.

A correction may then start from that support; and if so, it is supposed to be finished at resistance level 1.4000, from which the pair will go back to 1.3850. In case the pair drops below level
1.3820, it will clear the road to the lowering target at support level 1.3650 (“D” trend line).

Trend status: side trend in transition to downtrend
Current resistances: 1.4055
Supports: 1.3960, 1.3850

GBP/USD

H4 graph
Last week the pair attempted to update the maximum of 06/03/09 (level 1.6661), but failed. Having bounced the pair went under level 1.6530, what lead to development of a downtrend.

Now the pair is sitting on support 1.6300 formed by the lower bound of “E-E+” side trend and the lower bound of “C-C+” weekly uptrend.

We can’t say about confident continuation of downtrend until the pair drops below level 1.6240, opening the straight road down to support level 1.5900 (the lower bound of “W-W+” side trend).

A correction may then start from that level; and if so, it is supposed to be finished at resistance level 1.6240, from which the pair will go back to 1.5900. In case the pair drops below level 1.5855, the lowering target will be set to level 1.5500 (the lower bound of “D-D+” weekly uptrend).

Trend status: downtrend
Current resistances: 1.6400, 1.6490, 1.6550 (crucial)
Supports: 1.6300, 1.6200

USD/CHF

H4 graph
The pair’s trading continues within a side trend; however the analysis of other main pairs speaks in favor of emerging an impulse to develop an uptrend.

The pair got over level 1.0845 (broke the higher bound of “a-a+” H4 downtrend), what clears the road up to resistance 1.1145 (the higher bound of “C-C+ weekly downtrend).

Trend status: side trend in transition to uptrend
Current supports: 1.0830
Resistances: 1.0880, 1.0940, 1.1145

GOLD

H4 graph
Having bounced off levels 940–945 (which “neckline” and “K” trend line pass through) gold formed a “diamond” trend-continuing figure. Dropping below level 925 clears the road down to level 916. In its turn, dropping below level 916 clears the road down to crucial levels 888 and 877.

 

[strategist]

EUR/USD

H4 graph
The pair keeps trading along a sideways trend (“O-O+”) between two key levels – 1.4390 (a very strong resistance) and 1.4215 (turning level). This trend is transforming into a “triangle” figure, which is being formed now and has its top at level 1.4425, where the 4th wave of this figure is supposed to emerge. Basically, we may consider the figure as such that will turn the sideways trend either upwards or downwards, so we should take the levels into consideration anyway.

There are two variants of events to proceed:
1. If the pair breaks above level 1.4425, the “triangle” figure may be treated as an uptrend-continuing figure. This way, the market sets the target of growth to level 1.4580. However, there is a very strong resistance on the way up – level 1.4500 (the higher boundary of “C-C+” sideways trend weekly). So, we may try to open buy positions above 1.4425, then it is necessary to close them right before approaching 1.4500 and buy additionally only upon break above ~1.4545.

2. The “triangle” figure is becoming the figure bearing a downtrend in case the pair breaks below level 1.4215 (gets below “B” and “O” trend lines); in such case the pair will get to essential support 1.4085 (“P” trend lines).
Personal prejudice:
I wouldn’t trade for buying while the pair is located above level 1.4545, since there are a whole lot of important resistances, which won’t let the market to pass them easily – the market is going to twitch. It is more secure to sell after drop below level 1.4215 with the target set to 1.4085.

 

[strategist]

H4 graph
The pair is still following the sideways trading pattern between key levels 1.4360 and 1.4175, and correction won’t be finished until one of those levels is passed.

Variants of events to proceed:
1. The pair retreats to support 1.4175 again, then drops below level 1.4135. In such case it will clear the road of lowering to level 1.3900 (the lower bound of “C-C+” sideways trend daily).
2. The pair rises above level 1.4360. In such case it will clear the road of growth to level 1.4500 (the higher bound of “C-C+” sideways trend daily).

 

[strategist]

GBP/USD

H4 graph
The pair is trading under level 1.6335 (below the “C” trend line), which speaks in favor of dropping to level 1.5950. Some correction is developing now, which is supposed to be finished at 1.6335. I suggest selling from current levels with a stop set above 1.6385 and the target set to 1.5950.

Alternatively, in case the market rises above level 1.6385, a “double top” trend-turning figure will be formed and the pair will set its target of growth to level 1.6510 and over. And if it then will rise above 1.6510, it will get to a huge free upper area, which it will be able to pass easily. If it will go that way, the target will be set to level 1.6900.

Daily graph (09.06.09)
The pair rebounded from support level 1.6170 formed by the crossing of trend lines “H” (monthly trend line) and “D” (the lower bound of daily uptrend). This was followed by a drop below the lower bound of “C-C+” daily sideways trend with subsequent return to the channel. That fact speaks that there is a very strong support under the channel and now the pair will try to find a stronger resistance in order to test level 1.6170 again. But the pair may not find proper resistance since there are no strong resistances above level 1.6510, and by going above level 1.6510 the pair will break the “B-B+” daily downtrend, after which it is supposed to rise to level 1.6900. For the reasons above the pair either will turn from current levels for testing 1.6170, or it will eventually rise above level 1.6510.

Two variants of events to proceed are seen:
1. In case the pair rises above level 1.6510, it will get to resistance 1.6900 / 1.6950.
2. In case the pair drops below level 1.6070, it will get down to support 1.5480.

GOLD

H4 graph
The gold is consolidating at level 994 (the crossing of “Z” weekly trend line and “B+” – the higher bound of daily uptrend). This level is a key one and it determines further direction of the market for near future. As we can see, the higher bound of the “triangle” figure had been broken (level 977, “C+” trend line), which speaks in favor of the gold’s rising to the level of intermediate resistance 1024 (“K” weekly trend line). But it’s now worth excluding the variant of downtrend development followed by drop to level 974, and possibly even to 940.

That’s why there are two variants of events to proceed:
1. Since the higher bound of “triangle” was broken up, we’re moving towards level 1024. This scenario is confirmed if the gold manages to hold ground above 994 and doesn’t drop any lower than 974.
2. “Z” trend line shows a strong resistance and the gold retreats to support 974, if it drops below level 984. Such fact will weaken the hope for continuation of the uptrend and getting to level 1024. That’s why, if the market will then go under level 974, it will get to support 940.

 

[strategist]

GBP/USD

H1 graph
The pair rebounded from resistance 1.6440 (the higher bound of “B2-B+” downtrend). During the rebound a “double top” trend-turning figure had been formed and executed, so the pair’s next drop target is now set to level 1.6310 – the lower bound of “Z-Z+” sideways trend. That sideways trend comprises another “double top” trend-turning figure itself, and the figure mentioned above is the right shoulder of this one. Generally speaking, a “diamond” figure is also seen within this large double top, but the “Z-Z+” has clearly outlined itself, so we should consider it primary. In case the pair drops below level 1.6290, the large figure will be executed and the next drop target will be set to level 1.6180. But first the pair needs to get under 1.6350 and keep itself from going above 1.6415, or else the whole trading plan is cancelled.

 

[strategist]

EUR/USD

H4 graph
The pair is trading along the uptrend, which has a local growth target at level 1.4635 (“F” trend line). In case that level is passed, the next target level will be set to resistance 1.4719 (2008.12.18 high). It’s also worth reminding that after the pair rose above level 1.4550, it had broken the higher bound of an “up-trending triangle” figure, so the strategic target of the pair is now set to resistance level 1.4935.

If any correction happens, the pair is supposed to find the support at level 1.4515. Then the growth towards 1.4635 will be resumed. Otherwise, if the pair drops below level 1.4465, we can state the trend’s turn and the first local dropping target will be set to level 1.4355 (“E” trend line).

GBP/USD

H4 graph
The pair is trading along the uptrend, which has a growth target set to a rather distant level 1.6900. Although that level is far away there are no serious resistances on the way up, so reaching that level is completely real. In order to continue the uptrend the pair needs to get over resistance 1.6590, while the nearest support is found at level 1.6535. The next support is located at level 1.6400 – a strong key level. We can speak about changing of current uptrend to a downtrend only if the pair drops below level 1.6365, and in such case the dropping target will be set to level 1.6170.

GOLD

H4 graph
The gold is on the way up, and it is supposed to reach the local target – resistance level 1025 (“K” trend line, see weekly graph). After having a rest at the higher bound of broken “B-B+” daily uptrend, the gold started some consolidation (a figure of trend continuation is being formed). In case the gold rises above level 1004, the up-trending momentum will gain strength again. Support is found at level 990. Otherwise, if the market drops below level 986, it will get to support 974 (the higher bound of the “triangle” figure) and the correction will endure. But if the gold succeeds going under level 969, the uptrend will be lost and soon replaced with a downtrend, which will has the dropping target set to level 948.