My, €4.1k to €227k in 2 years, journal.

i guess as a newbie, you're gonna freak when you only get 39% winners, and then will bail out, just one trade before the really profitable Home Run scores big
 
Liquid validity said:
I'd swear people actually buy into all this analysis crap, despite the fact that the same people also usually have strike rates of 40-60%, or returns lower than 1 risk (hence analysis is shown not to work all the time, or dare I say even be random...).
Click to expand...

You are discounting the actual return on strike rate though. If you won twice as much for tails than you lost on heads, you will eventually have a fortune.

Liquid validity said:
Any form of analysis is still just a random reason for entry, nothing more.
No matter how much you kid yourself, that is the case.
Various forms of anaylsis can give you greater accuracy or higher probability,
NOTHING will ever produce a successful profitable trade every time though will it.
So whats the difference between that and a random coin toss?
Click to expand...

(n)(n)(n)(n)(n)

It is impossible for me to disagree more with this view.

And I'm not going to argue about whether the markets are random or whether discretionary trading is any better than tossing a coin....that is absolute newbie sh!t
 
rathcoole_exile said:
i guess as a newbie, you're gonna freak when you only get 39% winners, and then will bail out, just one trade before the really profitable Home Run scores big
Click to expand...

I think id rather stick to pin bars which are very high probability.
 
new_trader said:
You are discounting the actual return on strike rate though. If you won twice as much for tails than you lost on heads, you will eventually have a fortune.

:rolleyes: Yes that is correct, the point was the accuracy of TYPICAL BASIC ANALYSIS, compared to the accuracy of a coin flip.
Obviously return on a risk is a factor.

(n)(n)(n)(n)(n)

It is impossible for me to disagree more with this view.

And I'm not going to argue about whether the markets are random or whether discretionary trading is any better than tossing a coin....that is absolute newbie sh!t
Click to expand...

So you disagree because you have a 100% strike rate I take it?
Which also means that analysis is always 100% correct?
Fair enough if you want to call it newbie sh1t.
I don't care.
Even if a coin toss is newbie sh1t you can still make money with it.

If coin toss randomness is sh1t can you also explain why quant finance has
randomness as its foundation, and explain how that is different compared to a coin toss?

Paul Wilmott Introduces Quantitative Finance
Page 96:

The final form of analysis is the one we are really concerned with in this book, and is
the form that has been most successful over the last 50 years, forming a solid foundation
for portfolio theory, derivatives pricing and risk management. It is quantitative analysis .
Quantitative analysis is all about treating financial quantities such as stock prices or
interest rates as random, and then choosing the best models for that randomness. Let’s
see why randomness is important and then build up a simple, random, stock price model.

So not only Wilmott, but the entire quant finance sector is full of newbie sh1t
for basing models on randomness?
Can you explain why that is wrong, or at least why it does not work.
Fair enough if you disagree with it and it doesn't suit you.

Please explain it to me and show me the error of my ways.
I'm a newbie dumb sh1t you see :)
Or if you want you could just come back and have a civil discussion about it.
I expected more from you, but I'm not surprised.
Prove me wrong as you obviously know better.
Please I'm all ears.
 
blueclaret said:
I think he is taking the **** and too many are falling for it! Funny though :)
Click to expand...

I agree, I'm not falling for anything, I've probably stupidly allowed myself
to get drawn into an opinionated debate that doesn't really matter.
Oh well, I'm here now :)
 
new_trader said:
And I'm not going to argue about whether the markets are random or whether discretionary trading is any better than tossing a coin....that is absolute newbie sh!t
Click to expand...

Well I posted my reply 30 mins ago, and I've seen you viewing this thread.
So I guess you are true to your word and won't discuss it it any more detail.

I've never known you shy away from a bit of heated spirited debate before.
Why now?
Nothing to be bothered by with me.
I haven't taken personal offence at what you said.
In comparitive terms I probably am a newbie sh1t.
Quite possibly an arrogant a$$hole as well, I'm aware of my shortcomings :)
So why not tell me exactly what the issue is then?

Seriously, if you want to talk about it, here I am.
I'm not looking for a flame war, and I'm perfectly willing to concede
you have a valid point, if you'd let me know :)
 
Liquid validity said:
So you disagree because you have a 100% strike rate I take it?

No.

Which also means that analysis is always 100% correct?

No. But why is it either 100% or a coin toss? What if my strike rate is 3/5? That is better than 50/50 isn't it? So according to you, weather forecasting must be 100% accurate or it's just like tossing a coin.

Fair enough if you want to call it newbie sh1t.
I don't care.
Even if a coin toss is newbie sh1t you can still make money with it.

If coin toss randomness is sh1t can you also explain why quant finance has
randomness as its foundation, and explain how that is different compared to a coin toss?

Paul Wilmott Introduces Quantitative Finance
Page 96:

The final form of analysis is the one we are really concerned with in this book, and is
the form that has been most successful over the last 50 years, forming a solid foundation
for portfolio theory, derivatives pricing and risk management. It is quantitative analysis .
Quantitative analysis is all about treating financial quantities such as stock prices or
interest rates as random, and then choosing the best models for that randomness. Let’s
see why randomness is important and then build up a simple, random, stock price model.

So not only Wilmott, but the entire quant finance sector is full of newbie sh1t
for basing models on randomness?
Can you explain why that is wrong, or at least why it does not work.
Fair enough if you disagree with it and it doesn't suit you.

Please explain it to me and show me the error of my ways.
I'm a newbie dumb sh1t you see :)
Or if you want you could just come back and have a civil discussion about it.
I expected more from you, but I'm not surprised.
Prove me wrong as you obviously know better.
Please I'm all ears.
Click to expand...

Ph.D analysis...I should have figured...I didn't call you a dumb newbie sh!t, I said the argument is, and it is. I repeat, I am not interested in debating it. I'll leave that to the newbies who don't know any better.
 
new_trader said:
Ph.D analysis...I should have figured...I didn't call you a dumb newbie sh!t, I said the argument is, and it is. I repeat, I am not interested in debating it. I'll leave that to the newbies who don't know any better.
Click to expand...

Well if you mean the argument is dumb as in its all a means to an end,
and analysis and randomness are just different vehicles to arrive at the
same destination, I completely agree :)

If thats cleared up no hard feelings then :)
Yes and fair enough, I was wrong, you didn't call me that :)
 
Liquid validity said:
Well I posted my reply 30 mins ago, and I've seen you viewing this thread.
So I guess you are true to your word and won't discuss it it any more detail.

I've never known you shy away from a bit of heated spirited debate before.
Why now?
Nothing to be bothered by with me.
I haven't taken personal offence at what you said.
In comparitive terms I probably am a newbie sh1t.
Quite possibly an arrogant a$$hole as well, I'm aware of my shortcomings :)
So why not tell me exactly what the issue is then?

Seriously, if you want to talk about it, here I am.
I'm not looking for a flame war, and I'm perfectly willing to concede
you have a valid point, if you'd let me know :)
Click to expand...

Because I find it almost insulting rather than interesting. Maybe a few years ago I would have engaged in this debate, but not now. I've come too far with my trading to even entertain the idea that a coin toss can substitute intelligent analysis. That is the domain of the newbie or someone who has never figured out wot is wot or even bothered to try.

You also changed your stance from "Any form of analysis" to "Basic analysis" half way through.
 
new_trader said:
Because I find it almost insulting rather than interesting. Maybe a few years ago I would have engaged in this debate, but not now. I've come too far with my trading to even entertain the idea that a coin toss can substitute intelligent analysis. That is the domain of the newbie or someone who has never figured out wot is wot or even bothered to try.

You also changed your stance from "Any form of analysis" to "Basic analysis" half way through.
Click to expand...

Slack prose on my part:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/tra...y-5k-400k-2-years-journal-42.html#post1903598
I had made the distinction between in depth analysis and basic analysis
earlier.

I'm not saying a coin toss can substitute tape reading or anything else.
I am saying that it can be more than adequate to generate a return.
A sweeping poorly explained generalisation - yes, I'd concede that.
The point I was making, perhaps poorly, was that no analysis is completely accurate.
 
Quant finance only works in normal market conditions. When you have a massive external (i.e. not price/return driven) event like 2008 and correlations break down etc then you get 20+ sigma events by qd analysis. While it's a sound framework its not the be all and end all. I personally think that scenario specific economic and econometric analysis trumps all. It's dynamic and the approach and thesis can change with any new news etc. Quant finance should be (is?) reserved for assessing and/or estimating risk imho in scenarios where hard and fast rules aren't applicable.
 
Benj1981 said:
Yep wise words. I looked at the margin bit of IG's guide but it went over my head if im honest. Thanks for the explanation.

Good trading to you.

P.S - I might message you if im stuck on "margin" things if that's alright?
Click to expand...

Thats cool if you want. Understanding position size, margin, leverage etc. is most beneficial in not blowing your account.
A lot of the spread betting providers give a rather vague explanation of margin. Playing with the £10000 demo account doesn't explain it either.
The best explanation I've seen was on the Paddy Power Trader website but sadly they no longer offer Financial Spread Betting.
 
scose-no-doubt said:
Quant finance only works in normal market conditions. When you have a massive external (i.e. not price/return driven) event like 2008 and correlations break down etc then you get 20+ sigma events by qd analysis. While it's a sound framework its not the be all and end all. I personally think that scenario specific economic and econometric analysis trumps all. It's dynamic and the approach and thesis can change with any new news etc. Quant finance should be (is?) reserved for assessing and/or estimating risk imho in scenarios where hard and fast rules aren't applicable.
Click to expand...

I agree, randomness is pretty much the only principle from quant finance I use in practise:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/gen...roduces-quantitative-finance.html#post1901206
 
Benj,
you've been reading and studying for 3 or 4 days solid now, so please use your experience to critique my action plan for the Euro.

As I see it, price is in no-man's land at present,
but I'd be happy to Short it if it rises to a certain level (yellow line)
or equally to go with a Short BreakDown if price plummets (trigger, second yellow line)
Target for both potential shorts is marked with X

Conversely, if price continues to rise and breaks out of a channel, I'd be tempted to go Long on a tight leash.

I can't really see the Long happening and am biased towards the Downside, but I've been known to be wrong before .......

Please let me have your thoughts and advice ?
cheers
 

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Morning all, looks like ive missed quite a bit on here! Should probs start by saying to NewTrader and LiquidV, guys, dont understand what youre arguing about but try it keep it civil yeah? (y) GTTY both.

As for the trolls that keep coming on here, one word - haters, the lot of them. Sticks and stones and all that.
 
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