Munchie "the noob" dude's Virgin Trading journal

i still really can't see what those indicators are showing you :-(

anyway, just for the record, I've just gone Long at 1.4380
target 1.4440, SL 1.4366
 
sorry, I know it's your thread and I won't post MY trades again.
Just fancied a little afternoon sport with you :)
I'm just away now for an hour or so, let's see what happens when I log back in :)
good luck
 
i still really can't see what those indicators are showing you :-(

anyway, just for the record, I've just gone Long at 1.4380
target 1.4440, SL 1.4366

lol, i cant see what the indicators are showing me as well lol

well tbh, the macd simply showing me convergence of moving avg, and the convergence is increasing as the macd goes does, if it crosses over midpoint (the "crossover") it could signify a reversal of the trend to the downside but im sure you already know this and im not stating the obvious here. the sell stop order ive placed coincides with the sup level that, if broken, i would expect for further downside.

not an exact science to be fair but with every trade or order i place, im getting a good experience whether the trade is hit or not. if the macd crossover proves unreliable, my account balance and trade stats should pick this up over time and i may well ditch it and try other strategies like fading breakouts or watching for chart formations or even your sug of MA and VA.

dont worry bout posting your trades here also, i would like to get an idea how ppl trade and what triggers they use to further help my development.

lets see where we go with the eur/usd :)
 
updated: pending orde rnot triggered altho h1 shows macd weakening to downside, i fully expect 1.4365 to be strongly tested in the PM session.
 
update: eur/usd being tested at sup level. macd still weakening on the H1, expecting a macd crossover. pending trade not triggered but still valid.
 
position now moving to +ve.next bar print on H1 in 9 mins, macd and stox both showing weakness.

nxt step: move s/l to b/e if price reaches 1.43475
 
ok, trade still valid, coupled with negative gdp data from germany, bears beating bulls atm on eur/usd. reading on macd suggests that crossover could occur at 2pm gmt.

still monitoring trade.
 
still believe in short bias on eur/usd.

looking for confirmation of crossover on macd before making a move.
 
:) its all fun and games!

i have just been thinking about my trades and my approach. i've come up with some basic realisations that io thought i would note here. obviously its only been 2 days so its not concrete per se but just something that i have noticed.

point 1:- last 2 days i've noticed that when trading off the H1 and T30 TF's, the macd rarely crosses over the midline and since i was ideally looking for a midline cross as a trigger,that meant i didnt have any trigger to trade these last few days as the eurusd has carried on pretty much as it started.

point 2:- i notice that the macd indicator doesnt give an accurate representation of trend reversal (i appreciate that its a lagging indicator) and it seemingly gives off delayed signals and too gradual for picking entries.

i note that on shorter TF's, the stocs in particular, gives off a much more reliable signal of trend reversal, espcially when the lines cross and the stocs is either touching or above 80 or touching/below 20.

in asessing the macd, in my mind, it seems one to show gradual trend reversals and coupling this with a higher TF, can be used to assess general trend in the present moment.

there is much more 'noise' in the T1 timeframe that t30+.

strategy going to be amended in next post.

this is as much for my benefit in terms of documenting my thoughts as it is for sharing. Some may question why change my strategy after only 2 days. well my honest answer to that is that the strategy was only begun recently and not backtested (yes, im an idiot and destined to lose a pile of ££££).
so reasons for change:
1. i cannot identify entry triggers.
2. im uncomfortable with indicators and their supposed purpose

please feel free to comment if you feel you could add anything constructive, positive or negatve, to this line of thinking. i would particularly like to hear from anyone that is using a mix of stocs/macd for their trading currently.
otherwise, thanks for taking an interest. i will post a newly updated strat in a moment.
 
ugh

if you want to use indicators then just use the macd histogram and wait for divergence. example in coffee recently.

20110816-r97cb2w6hy24py8hb11x8ciju.jpg
 
hey, rawrschach, thanks for your input, it must be frustrating watching a noob like me stab in the dark but hey...im trying!

would you elaborate what you mean by wait for divergence and what the middle and bottom indicators are?


sorry for the noob Q :s
 
middle is volume - not relevant for FX.

bottom is the MACD histogram.

Divergence - the market makes a lower low but the histogram makes a higher low - the two pink lines are pointing in different directions, this is divergence. I bought on the first bullish day - denoted by the arrow. So long as you have the sense not to do this in a strongly trending market it hardly ever fails.
 
thanks rawrschach, your explanation and graph is clear to the point. with this strategy, i assume its not suitable for trending mkts, only ranging?
 
Well not necessarily, it depends on the price action. Look at sugar, in a monster uptrend yet with some nice swings counter trend

20110816-g4rpp9bsyiiip3j6qd5d7qbgkh.jpg


as opposed to gold where the action is so tight i'd never want to go counter trend

20110816-bxpd8kipk93rj3efq4bbcipph.jpg
 
very interesting to see it develop, trading divergence and convergence on macd is something new but i will definitely explore it further, thanks!

i will post my strategy for tomorrow, im just doing a spreadsheet to log my trades!
 
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