Hi Simon,
I understand your point completely and, on the face of it, what you say appears logical; obvious even. However, (you just knew that was coming, didn't you :cheesy: ) I fear you are falling prey to gamblers fallacy. I expect you know what this is, but for the benefit of newer T2W members who don't, it goes something along these lines. Mr. Punter at the Roulette wheel notices the ball lands on red 10 times consecutively. Gamblers fallacy dictates that surely the ball will land on black on the 11th spin of the wheel and he bets accordingly. It doesn't, and he loses. Now, having landed on red 11 times in a row, Mr. Punter is even more convinced that the ball will land on black on the 12th spin of the wheel and bets accordingly. This goes on ad infinitum, usually with Mr. Punter betting more heavily each time, convinced that the ball can't continue to land on red time after time. But it does and Mr. Punter leaves the casino in disbelief and with empty pockets. The probability of the ball landing on black with the next spin of the wheel does NOT increase over time. It is ALWAYS 50/50 (excluding the 0 which I believe is white).
Whilst one might be encouraged by Mr. Charts' students becoming successful traders, their success (or failure) has little or no bearing on our own probability of success. There is one very simple reason why some students fail. They are not Mr. Charts. Period; end of story. No one will trade like Mr. Charts except Mr. Charts himself. He says his methods are "simple". They are. He says it's "not rocket science". It certainly isn't. He says there are big profits to be made intra day, not everyday perhaps, but several times a week at least. He's demonstrated this time and again very plainly, very openly, for all to witness on these very boards. Naz too for that matter. The ones that succeed may be able to duplicate his methods better than the ones who fail, but ultimately, their success is down to them and their unique abilities.The problem, as Neil pointed out earlier in the thread, has absolutely nothing to do with Mr. Charts, Naz or whoever. The problem and, most importantly, the solution, lies within each one of us. I believe that I have the potential to be a good trader. I am not a clone of Mr. Charts and I don't want to be one. (Okay, there's a tiny lie here, but that is just jealousy on my part because I'm not as successful as he is). I'm ME, you are YOU. Mr. Charts, Naz and the like can't make any of us successful traders an herein lies the rub. . . this is something we all have to learn to do ourselves. You could have a day's coaching with David Beckham. You wouldn't expect a premiere league club to come knocking on your door wanting to sign you up the day after, would you? Yet aspiring traders expect to be profitable straight after a day's coaching with Mr. C!!!! However, in time, you might become a great footballer and even eclipse Mr. Beckham. The coaching may prove to be pivotal in your career but, ultimately, your success will result from your own dedication, focus, tenacity, drive, commitment etc., etc. In this respect, trading is no different to football.
Tim.