market direction

[FXTrend240]

im sure he said 20- i know it's 2% so when he said 20 i was like wtf .

anyway the chart below shows how well our boys at the brokerage house did, i think they said 'all our hopes are on sandisk,all eggs in one basket, if it fails we'll lose our jobs' or something to that effect 😀

 

[DionysusToast]

i find it intresting that not many people participate in this thread, perhaps because there are no pretty indicators?

I'm reading - not much to add though. But consider this a raa-raa post.

Perhaps you could use a different colour to keep those with short attentions spans interested.

I heard purple is the new black.

 

[DionysusToast]

the closest thing i will give away is this. i trade bubbles. bubbles happen in all speculative markets wether it is over a few days, months, years, decades. its all the principle.

this is how a bubble works, it can be applied to ANY market.


it goes,

Insiders buy
Profesionals buy
more profesionals buy
retail trders buy
idiots buy

LOL ! Sad but true...

 

[Benton D Struckcheon]

I'm reading - not much to add though. But consider this a raa-raa post.

Perhaps you could use a different colour to keep those with short attentions spans interested.

I heard purple is the new black.

I second that.
I'm partial to red, myself. Bordello red, as if you didn't already know that...

 

[barryb]

Rothschild, from how you spoke before you started this thread, i had a feeling you faded hysteria in lamens terms, and in principle i agree with this concept. However constant media attention and public participation sometimes can only be warnings to volatile corrections within the continuing maintrend. Is this where your options strategy comes in? Exiting cable shorts on hysteria a few weeks ago is what i did, however i still maintain it's going down, although with some very nasty corrections. The same with Eur/Usd, i think it's still going down, but with severe corrections which the 90% won't be able to time right. Of course my opinion means no more than the next man's, and i'm wrong more than 50% of the time on occasions, but i just thought i'd share my thoughts.

 

[Splitlink]

LOL ! Sad but true...

It's very hindsighty, though. I can remember writing on a forum that British credit card debt at 600 billion could not go on for much longer.. What did it top out at? 1.3 trillion? Probably more.

Now they are saying that borrowing requirement on this year's budget is 177 billion, was it? And the interest payments cost more than our defence budget, which in the UK is huge.

We all have to ride on the back of the tiger. Many will fall off, of course.

 

[N Rothschild]

so have you bin trading sugar?
i haven't traded comms but have looked at continuous charts every now and again but I really don't see how "bubbles" is something you can trade on...probably a good indication that it works.

yes i was in sugar, exited last week. sugar is a perfect example of the bubble

 

[N Rothschild]

Rothschild, from how you spoke before you started this thread, i had a feeling you faded hysteria in lamens terms, and in principle i agree with this concept. However constant media attention and public participation sometimes can only be warnings to volatile corrections within the continuing maintrend. Is this where your options strategy comes in? Exiting cable shorts on hysteria a few weeks ago is what i did, however i still maintain it's going down, although with some very nasty corrections. The same with Eur/Usd, i think it's still going down, but with severe corrections which the 90% won't be able to time right. Of course my opinion means no more than the next man's, and i'm wrong more than 50% of the time on occasions, but i just thought i'd share my thoughts.

really not liking euros at the moment!

 

[N Rothschild]

jpy approaching buy zone

live cattle is ripe for the picking!

 

[N Rothschild]

tripple bottom on cable, should be interesting

 

[N Rothschild]

I second that.
I'm partial to red, myself. Bordello red, as if you didn't already know that...

im a stripper pink man myself

 

[N Rothschild]

Rothschild, from how you spoke before you started this thread, i had a feeling you faded hysteria in lamens terms, and in principle i agree with this concept. However constant media attention and public participation sometimes can only be warnings to volatile corrections within the continuing maintrend. Is this where your options strategy comes in? Exiting cable shorts on hysteria a few weeks ago is what i did, however i still maintain it's going down, although with some very nasty corrections. The same with Eur/Usd, i think it's still going down, but with severe corrections which the 90% won't be able to time right. Of course my opinion means no more than the next man's, and i'm wrong more than 50% of the time on occasions, but i just thought i'd share my thoughts.

yes mate with certain option strats you can basically have limited risk to the downside, the risk being the premium pade for the options, and unlimited upside. i like using synthetic puts/calls. that is where you buy futures contracts long and purchase in the money puts to protect the downside. obviously the market has to move a certain amount before you are in the money, but with position trading this isnt to much of an issue.

i asses my risk on the premium, so lets say i wanted to risk $10,000 on a trade, i would calculate how many in the money options i can purchase for this amount and that would give me the size of my position in the underlying futures market. So say you could buy 20 corn puts for 10k, my long position would then be 20 corn contracts.

for instance the oil position i exited yesterday, i was long from $79, which meant i also was holding $79 puts. The in the money zone was about +$2. I exited at 86.50 minus the premium on the options which netted roughly $5.5 to the upside in crude.

 

[FXTrend240]

can you get currency futures options? a while back i looked at options instead of stop losses and it seemed to make sense;but then i realised options are way more complicated than i thought

 

[scose-no-doubt]

Hi Roths, I'm just wondering why bother with the synth?
If you just went straight long the extra 10k margin could allow you to swallow more loss if you really really wanted to hold on.
Seems to me like you're paying the premium to hold gamma risk once the option becomes profitable.
Suppose if you're picking the swings well it wouldn't matter but do you see what I mean? Say the future stays rangebound what do you do?
What kind of period are you holding trades for?
Sorry to be pedantic but I'm just quite curious about how these strategies perform in practice. 🙂

 

[JER08]

"Say the future stays rangebound what do you do?"
"but I'm just quite curious about how these strategies perform in practice?"

Same question from me.

 

[Waterfield]

He trades bubbles! They won't be range-bound! 🙂 (And then again, not often do you see something range-bound for over a month).

 

[robster970]

i find it intresting that not many people participate in this thread, perhaps because there are no pretty indicators?

I suspect that most people don't take a wider view of all markets and underlying economics & fundamentals to shape their trading, especially 'technical' traders for want of a better phrase.

 

[N Rothschild]

i think natty gas may make one more daily low tbh

 

[N Rothschild]

Hi Roths, I'm just wondering why bother with the synth?
If you just went straight long the extra 10k margin could allow you to swallow more loss if you really really wanted to hold on.
Seems to me like you're paying the premium to hold gamma risk once the option becomes profitable.
Suppose if you're picking the swings well it wouldn't matter but do you see what I mean? Say the future stays rangebound what do you do?
What kind of period are you holding trades for?
Sorry to be pedantic but I'm just quite curious about how these strategies perform in practice. 🙂

the main reason is you can adjust your risk. lets take live cattle, yesterday saw a huge gap up and sell off. if you maintained ur initial outlook that the market is a short, you can off loaded your hedge at a profit. or you can just hold onto to it.

range bound market, you eat the loss simple as. but in my style of trading there arnt a huge amount of range bound markets as water field pointed out. or you can just roll the options

 

[N Rothschild]

also remember some of these commodity markets can get rather thin at times and be subject to monster gaps, you deffo dont want to experiance one of these un hegded. i have done and it hurt big time (talking near 6 figures) will never naked punt again after that. it was also this monster loss which led me to the epiphany of my current setup, hence im not to eager to reveal it.