Best Thread Market Breadth

[isatrader]

Yesterday saw the NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) reverse back to Xs for the first time since early April. Which now puts it back on Bull Confirmed status along with the other three P&F charts I focus on. So using a Dorsey football analogy; your team has possession of the ball in the middle of pitch and it's now your job to try to score in the end zone.

Here's the updated chart

 

[isatrader]

Attached is the updated breadth charts, of which most have moved to Bull Correction status.

 

[isatrader]

Attached is the updated P&F breadth charts. The short term NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 50 Day Moving Average ($NYA50R) moved back to Bull Confirmed status with Fridays price action, but the medium term charts are still in Bull Correction status. But all four are on a buy signal currently, so the breadth trend is up.

 

[isatrader]

Here's this weeks cumulative weekly and daily Advance Decline charts and the weekly and daily New Highs New Lows charts. All of which favour the bulls currently as well.

 

[isatrader]

Yesterday's price action moved the short and medium term breadth charts back to a column of Os and into Bull Correction Status. However, the 50 and the 150 are both very close to giving sell signals, and 150 made a lower high which isn't a good sign normally.

 

[isatrader]

The short and medium term breadth charts both continued their move lower and gave sell signals and are now on Bear Confirmed status. Here's the charts:

 

[isatrader]

Attached is the updated P&F breadth charts.

This weeks whipsaw has left a mixed picture on the breadth charts with the short term NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 50 Day Moving Average ($NYA50R) and NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 150 Day Moving Average ($NYA150R) reversing back to Xs after their earlier sell signal. They haven't broken a new double top yet, and so are still on the sell side for the time being, but the $NYA50R is only one box from a new buy signal, although it's moved into the upper portion of the chart, which indicates increased risk.

Another way I like to look at the breadth charts is as a line chart, so that I have a direct comparison with the S&P 500 price action. I've determined that a good buy signal is when the breadth line goes above the 30 week weighted moving average and manages to close the week with a higher high and also the moving average turns up. I've highlighted this with the green areas on the chart, and the opposite for a sell signal. Below is the chart which is still on the sell side and has yet to make a new move above the moving average, so it could take another month to get back to the buy signal, if it does at all that is, as it could easily continue lower from here as well as the trend is still down.

 

[isatrader]

An intraday trend change on the S&P 500 (SPY) versus the US 30 Year Treasuries (TLT) 1 box reversal chart. So the trend has turned back in favour of equities again.

 

[isatrader]

Attached is the updated P&F breadth charts.

Today's (6th Aug) moves in the broad market has put the entire four P&F breath charts back to Bull Confirmed status with new buy signals on 3 of the 4. The short term NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 50 Day Moving Average ($NYA50R) has broken above it's two month consolidation and is now back in the high risk zone. However, the medium and longer term NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 150 Day Moving Average ($NYA150R) and the NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 200 Day Moving Average ($NYA200R) are both in good field positions with only medium risk. So there is plenty of room to the upside still for those charts. Positive signs again.

 

[isatrader]

Here's the updated cumulative daily and weekly Advance Decline charts and the daily and weekly New Highs New Lows charts. All of which are still looking good, with new highs for the cumulative Advance Decline line charts, and new highs holding above the key 100 level for the New Highs New Lows.

 

[isatrader]

Another of my breath charts went positive yesterday, which was the line version of the NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 150 Day Moving Average ($NYA150R) closing above the 30 week WMA. It's only a preliminary signal though, as it needs to close the week above it first to be valid.

 

[isatrader]

Another of my breath charts went positive yesterday, which was the line version of the NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 150 Day Moving Average ($NYA150R) closing above the 30 week WMA. It's only a preliminary signal though, as it needs to close the week above it first to be valid.

The breadth buy signal was confirmed for me with a close at the end of the week above July's high. So a higher high, and a break back above the 30 week WMA.

 

[isatrader]

NYSE Advance Decline Cumulative Volume

Another breadth chart I recently discovered when reading one of Stockcharts blogs was the NYSE Advance Decline Cumulative Volume / NYSE Primary Market Total Volume ($NYUD:$NYTV). This measures the volume of the NYSE Advance Declines and so is another useful way of gauging the market strength as you can compare it against the straight AD chart to see if there is volume backing any advance or decline.

Currently this is above it's moving average and has broken above it's previous June high and is showing volume coming back into the market after the May sell off.

You can also look at the Nasdaq A/D Cumulative volume with symbol $NAUD:$NATV

The weekly chart is also interesting as it's broken out to new highs, which backs up the straight weekly cumulative charts move to new highs. The crosses above and below the 30 week MA also look useful for medium term timing.

 

[isatrader]

The NYSE New 52 Week Highs and New 52 Week Lows chart dropped back into the neutral zone today after the last two months of the New 52 Week Highs trading above the bullish 100 level. However, there was also only 10 new lows, so there is no new signal, but the new highs needs to get back above 100.

 

[isatrader]

Attached is the updated P&F breadth charts, which are currently on short term Bull Correction status. But, the medium and longer term measures continue to be on Bull Confirmed status.

Also attached, is the NYSE percentage of stocks above their 150 day MA (NYA150R) weekly and daily line charts - for those that can't read the point and figure charts. Which shows the positive breakout on the 9th August on the daily chart above the previous swing high and the confirmation on the weekly chart that same week.

 

[isatrader]

The NYSE New 52 Week Highs and New 52 Week Lows chart recovered from it's move back into neutral status, and is now back above the 100 line on Bull Status again.

Also below, is this weeks cumulative weekly and daily Advance Decline charts which continue to be positive and trade close to new highs. However, as the volume has been light during August with professional traders largely on holiday, it will be interesting to see the breadth changes in the coming weeks and if they confirm the current bullish trend.

 

[isatrader]

Attached is the updated P&F breadth charts.

The longer and medium term breadth measures have continued to gain strength with the NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 200 Day Moving Average ($NYA200R) and the NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 150 Day Moving Average ($NYA150R) now in the upper higher risk zone for the first time since the breakdown in early May.

The shorter term NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 50 Day Moving Average ($NYA50R) breadth chart also gave a continuation move and is approaching the top of it's normal range as 80.81% of the 3095 stocks in the NYSE are above their 50 day moving averages. If you look back across the current chart for comparative periods, you'll see late Sept 2010, mid to late October 2011 and late January 2012. So all of those were early in the medium term breakouts, but in October 2011 it was close to a near term high.

If we apply the same comparison across the other two medium to longer term NYSE Percent of Stocks charts then their levels were first reached in Oct06, Jul09, Oct10, Feb12 on the NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 200 Day Moving Average ($NYA200R) and May09, Oct10, Jan12 on the NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 150 Day Moving Average ($NYA150R). Promising signs maybe? As these were good times to buy.

So Bull Confirmed status again across the board, but with higher risk on 3 of the 4 charts now to be aware of.

Attached are the P&F charts and the line chart of the NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 150 Day Moving Average ($NYA150R) for those that don't or can't read P&F charts.

 

[isatrader]

Attached is the updated cumulative daily and weekly Advance Decline charts. The NYSE Advance Decline Cumulative Volume / NYSE Primary Market Total Volume ($NYUD:$NYTV) daily and weekly charts which measure the volume of the NYSE Advance Declines. And the daily and weekly New Highs New Lows charts. All of which are still looking good, but a very high reading on the new highs you'll notice.

 

[isatrader]

As I mentioned earlier in the thread. One tool I find really useful is the Dorsey Sector's Bell Curve, as it shows the distribution of all of their 40 stock sectors bullish percent chart levels on a bell curve. So you can see where the relative strength and weakness is in the market.

I last updated this on the 16th June when it was 39.48% and said it was near the lowest levels it's been at since November 2011. The market has recovered nicely since then and currently the average for this is at 52.64%, which is broadly neutral. And so the individual sectors have plenty of room in either direction still to work with and as the trend has been bullish for the latest few months then that would seem to be the path of least resistance for the time being.

Attached is the comparison chart with the current chart under the previous June bell curve so you can see what areas have improved.

It's not a free resource, so you need to have a subscription to Dorsey's site, but as I mentioned before in post #3 you can create your own free version using stockcharts.com

 

[isatrader]

SPY/TLT Ratio

Yesterday saw the first continuation move in the S&P 500 SPDRs/iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (SPY:TLT) ratio since the trend turned bullish on August 3rd - see post #48 here: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/technical-analysis/147476-market-breadth-6.html#post1931826 and so added some confirmation to the trend status. The 200 day moving average has also turned up and the 50 day moving average is getting closer to crossing it.

Attached is the 1 box P&F chart, but also I'm going to include the line chart versions with the daily and weekly charts for those that don't read point and figure charts. On the weekly chart you'll notice that the S&P 500 has broken above the downtrend line that's been in place for almost 2 years - which is another positive for equities.

The line charts are interesting. I hadn't looked at them before, as I've been focusing on the P&F chart version to determine trend. But the figures are similar to currencies as it's range for the last two years has been roughly between 1.52 and 0.92. It shows that it could be traded like a currency by being long one and short the other depending on the trend.