Excellent. I am eagerly awaiting that document.
Making Money Trading
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Excellent. I am eagerly awaiting that document.
black bear
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seen the light, well done
Hi Lurker
Well done on recent trades
Thats the start, you are improving, you sound to me from reading your posts Lurker like you can for the first time see what you are doing wrong
You are in control or beginning to gain control
You are on your way
trade less and think how to run your trades
try taking one trade at a time (less work) really try to get it right. When you have closed out watch the trade and try to learn a little more on each one.
You have I think found a method and time frame that suits you Lurker, I really do from reading your posts over the last month.
You are identifying trade set ups you are happy with, considering the risk etc and taking the trades
Your last grumble is one that will take time and hard work to resolve to your satisfaction.
You must not be to hard on yourself regards this one, I think FW gives good advice on this one IMO sorry if mis-quoted FW, no problem if you correct me
AT ENTRY NO YOUR EXIT, when you are getting consistant with your trades perhaps have a paper trade running alongside at EXIT take it with real money and let the paper tiger run on and see how he goes and learn that way
Hope it helps a bit Lurker
Keep going
Andy
Hi Lurker
Well done on recent trades
Thats the start, you are improving, you sound to me from reading your posts Lurker like you can for the first time see what you are doing wrong
You are in control or beginning to gain control
You are on your way
trade less and think how to run your trades
try taking one trade at a time (less work) really try to get it right. When you have closed out watch the trade and try to learn a little more on each one.
You have I think found a method and time frame that suits you Lurker, I really do from reading your posts over the last month.
You are identifying trade set ups you are happy with, considering the risk etc and taking the trades
Your last grumble is one that will take time and hard work to resolve to your satisfaction.
You must not be to hard on yourself regards this one, I think FW gives good advice on this one IMO sorry if mis-quoted FW, no problem if you correct me
AT ENTRY NO YOUR EXIT, when you are getting consistant with your trades perhaps have a paper trade running alongside at EXIT take it with real money and let the paper tiger run on and see how he goes and learn that way
Hope it helps a bit Lurker
Keep going
Andy
trader_dante
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Develbis has been encouraging so I'm going to be harsh
Lurker, your problem is simple.
You have no discipline.
What happened to your resolve only a few posts ago to close your charts and wait for the end of each hour before reviewing your position?
I was struck by what you wrote above: "First, my BE stop would have been untouched had I left it there, even after that pretty spectacular fall."
That simple line is, for me, the most telling part of your mistake.
If you entered on the hourly TF and monitored it on the hourly would you have seen a "spectacular fall"?
I drew an arrow to the decline I presume you are talking about. Remember, reactions in a trend are to be expected and are NECESSARY to ensure the continuation of that trend.
The only reason this minor reaction would take on anything more in your mind than a small and temporary setback is FEAR.
FEAR of giving back profits.
Why are you scared? Only you can answer this.
Is it anything to do with a desire to make back the loss on your Eur/Usd position?
We all need to analyse ourselves in this way. On one wall of my home office I have a whiteboard. I review every trade I take in my mind. If I believe that the cause of that loss is a MISTAKE rather than an outcome of simple probability, I write down the trade, the emotion that caused the loss and the amount of money that I paid to the market for tuition.
Don't be pacified by telling yourself "one day I'll learn".
I'm afraid that some people never learn and eventually they realise they have expended too much time and too much money on this game.
You can make it but you MUST learn from your mistakes.
I'm going to post more about the gbp/Jpy trade in the next post.
Lurker, your problem is simple.
You have no discipline.
What happened to your resolve only a few posts ago to close your charts and wait for the end of each hour before reviewing your position?
I was struck by what you wrote above: "First, my BE stop would have been untouched had I left it there, even after that pretty spectacular fall."
That simple line is, for me, the most telling part of your mistake.
If you entered on the hourly TF and monitored it on the hourly would you have seen a "spectacular fall"?
I drew an arrow to the decline I presume you are talking about. Remember, reactions in a trend are to be expected and are NECESSARY to ensure the continuation of that trend.
The only reason this minor reaction would take on anything more in your mind than a small and temporary setback is FEAR.
FEAR of giving back profits.
Why are you scared? Only you can answer this.
Is it anything to do with a desire to make back the loss on your Eur/Usd position?
We all need to analyse ourselves in this way. On one wall of my home office I have a whiteboard. I review every trade I take in my mind. If I believe that the cause of that loss is a MISTAKE rather than an outcome of simple probability, I write down the trade, the emotion that caused the loss and the amount of money that I paid to the market for tuition.
Don't be pacified by telling yourself "one day I'll learn".
I'm afraid that some people never learn and eventually they realise they have expended too much time and too much money on this game.
You can make it but you MUST learn from your mistakes.
I'm going to post more about the gbp/Jpy trade in the next post.
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firewalker99
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You must not be to hard on yourself regards this one, I think FW gives good advice on this one IMO sorry if mis-quoted FW, no problem if you correct me
AT ENTRY NO YOUR EXIT, when you are getting consistant with your trades perhaps have a paper trade running alongside at EXIT take it with real money and let the paper tiger run on and see how he goes and learn that way
Wow, I didn't realize I came to the point people quoted me. I must be doing something right
I think develbis gives excellent advice here, and I can't add much to it really. Good to see you are making progress lurker, but it will take another important step to let those profits run. Walking away from the screen is one way of doing it.
Perhaps also keep in mind that you don't need to score "perfect trades" (i.e. perfect entry & perfect exit) to be profitable. Striving for perfection can be destructable. If you are happy with what you took out of the trade, than it's okay. If you are not and you think you should've taken more, than you either must adjust your strategy or you must try to enforce more discipline on yourself.
"Profitable situations can provide us with as much pain and anguish as the unprofitable if we work it right."
"If perfection is your standard or goal, art (or machine tools or theoretical mathematics) is the field for you. Not Wall Street."
"It all depends on how you measure your values. If you insist on using a fantasy of perfection for a mirror, you are bound to be threatened by the danger that the reality will intrude itself on the pleasant image. There is no reason you need to regard selling out of something less than the top as a defeat."
"If perfection is your standard or goal, art (or machine tools or theoretical mathematics) is the field for you. Not Wall Street."
"It all depends on how you measure your values. If you insist on using a fantasy of perfection for a mirror, you are bound to be threatened by the danger that the reality will intrude itself on the pleasant image. There is no reason you need to regard selling out of something less than the top as a defeat."
- John Magee
trader_dante
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Gbp/Jpy
Time and time again I find that I have anticipated the turning point in the market almost to the exact tick.
I always thought to myself that if someone managed to do that it was largely the result of luck until it started to happen to me with enough frequency that I started to believe it was something more than that.
The key is to look for the areas that price has previously reacted to.
If you study your charts for these areas you will find they stand out more and more until you can look at most charts and you see them almost instantly.
Before we look at the Gbp/Jpy trade that Lurker took, I want to digress.
I came across a website the other day called The Stock Bandit. I know absolutely nothing about this website or what it offers but the first part of its tagline summed up the essence of trading in a very captivating way:
"Perfect your plan
Break the biggest bank on the planet"
I think this analogy is absolutely spot on.
Just like breaking a bank you need to have perfected your plan and know everything in detail:
- When are you going in?
- How are you getting in?
- What is the risk if you get caught?
- How are you going to get out?
- What are you going to do if someone intervenes with the plan? (the market makes an unexpected move)
You'd be a SUCKER if you walked through the front door brandishing a pistol.
Yet that is exactly what most amateurs do. They jump into a trade because they know that there is money to be made and then they start wondering how and where to get out.
It gets hard to think when the market is moving just as it gets hard to rob a bank if the place is surrounded by police and you've got no idea how to exit. At this stage both amateur traders and hardened criminals find themselves panicking.
GREED gets them in. FEAR carries them out.
HAVE A PLAN. YOU NEED TO MAKE SURE EVERY CONTINGENCY IS COVERED.
OK, lets look at the Gbp/Jpy trade.
These areas are already on my charts so if I had happened to be watching I would have clearly seen a pin bar reacting to a well defined S/R pivot on the hourly TF.
Time and time again I find that I have anticipated the turning point in the market almost to the exact tick.
I always thought to myself that if someone managed to do that it was largely the result of luck until it started to happen to me with enough frequency that I started to believe it was something more than that.
The key is to look for the areas that price has previously reacted to.
If you study your charts for these areas you will find they stand out more and more until you can look at most charts and you see them almost instantly.
Before we look at the Gbp/Jpy trade that Lurker took, I want to digress.
I came across a website the other day called The Stock Bandit. I know absolutely nothing about this website or what it offers but the first part of its tagline summed up the essence of trading in a very captivating way:
"Perfect your plan
Break the biggest bank on the planet"
I think this analogy is absolutely spot on.
Just like breaking a bank you need to have perfected your plan and know everything in detail:
- When are you going in?
- How are you getting in?
- What is the risk if you get caught?
- How are you going to get out?
- What are you going to do if someone intervenes with the plan? (the market makes an unexpected move)
You'd be a SUCKER if you walked through the front door brandishing a pistol.
Yet that is exactly what most amateurs do. They jump into a trade because they know that there is money to be made and then they start wondering how and where to get out.
It gets hard to think when the market is moving just as it gets hard to rob a bank if the place is surrounded by police and you've got no idea how to exit. At this stage both amateur traders and hardened criminals find themselves panicking.
GREED gets them in. FEAR carries them out.
HAVE A PLAN. YOU NEED TO MAKE SURE EVERY CONTINGENCY IS COVERED.
OK, lets look at the Gbp/Jpy trade.
These areas are already on my charts so if I had happened to be watching I would have clearly seen a pin bar reacting to a well defined S/R pivot on the hourly TF.
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trader_dante
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Gbp/Jpy *continued*
Here is how I would have planned this trade:
When are you going in?
The ENTRY will be on the break of the pin higher.
How are you getting in?
I am placing an order to go long above the pin bar. If the low of the pin is violated before entry, I will cancel the order. If it is not violated but the order has still not been filled I will review the conditions and decide how to react based on the price action I see.
What is the risk if you get caught?
The risk is X amount of pips from entry to beneath the low of the pin bar. I will adjust my trade size so it risks a percentage of the account that I am comfortable with.
How are you going to get out?
I am going to target the area marked on the charts. Why have I marked these areas in a particular? Because they are potential problem areas that price may run into trouble.
I can tell you where they lie very quickly because they are already on my chart. (See chart)
The first is the potential pivot level that is made by minor previous resistance and then significant previous support.
The second is the descending TL that connects the bar highs. Remember a TL is not confirmed until it has been tested for the third time. Therefore this one is not valid but its certainly interesting that it comes in not far from that pivot.
If the market moves into profit I will look for momentum coming into the resistance and trail my stop at a place which, if hit, will tell me that the momentum is fading.
If the market reaches the target area I am going to bring my stop in and see if the market can move higher. I will base my stop on the price action leading into this area. I want to give the market room to consolidate but not to significantly reverse.
What are you going to do if someone intervenes with the plan? (the market makes an unexpected move)
I have a contingency for all situations that I can predict. Every problem I can think of is covered.
Here are some possible unexpected occurences:
a) What if there is a power cut and I lose my landline?
- I can use my mobile phone to call my broker. Planning involves having brokers number and account number to hand.
b) What if my brokers website goes down and the broker does not pick up the phone?
- Planning involves having another account with sufficient funds to conduct an emergency hedge
c) What if the market makes a huge and sudden move upwards on no visible news although it obvious something significant has happened?
- Close half the position with a windfall profit as moves are often quickly faded. If I only have minimum size then move stop to nearest significant support or consider a full exit using discretion based on experience.
d) What if the market makes a huge and sudden move downwards on no visible news although it obvious something significant has happened?
- Let my stop loss do its work
Here is how I would have planned this trade:
When are you going in?
The ENTRY will be on the break of the pin higher.
How are you getting in?
I am placing an order to go long above the pin bar. If the low of the pin is violated before entry, I will cancel the order. If it is not violated but the order has still not been filled I will review the conditions and decide how to react based on the price action I see.
What is the risk if you get caught?
The risk is X amount of pips from entry to beneath the low of the pin bar. I will adjust my trade size so it risks a percentage of the account that I am comfortable with.
How are you going to get out?
I am going to target the area marked on the charts. Why have I marked these areas in a particular? Because they are potential problem areas that price may run into trouble.
I can tell you where they lie very quickly because they are already on my chart. (See chart)
The first is the potential pivot level that is made by minor previous resistance and then significant previous support.
The second is the descending TL that connects the bar highs. Remember a TL is not confirmed until it has been tested for the third time. Therefore this one is not valid but its certainly interesting that it comes in not far from that pivot.
If the market moves into profit I will look for momentum coming into the resistance and trail my stop at a place which, if hit, will tell me that the momentum is fading.
If the market reaches the target area I am going to bring my stop in and see if the market can move higher. I will base my stop on the price action leading into this area. I want to give the market room to consolidate but not to significantly reverse.
What are you going to do if someone intervenes with the plan? (the market makes an unexpected move)
I have a contingency for all situations that I can predict. Every problem I can think of is covered.
Here are some possible unexpected occurences:
a) What if there is a power cut and I lose my landline?
- I can use my mobile phone to call my broker. Planning involves having brokers number and account number to hand.
b) What if my brokers website goes down and the broker does not pick up the phone?
- Planning involves having another account with sufficient funds to conduct an emergency hedge
c) What if the market makes a huge and sudden move upwards on no visible news although it obvious something significant has happened?
- Close half the position with a windfall profit as moves are often quickly faded. If I only have minimum size then move stop to nearest significant support or consider a full exit using discretion based on experience.
d) What if the market makes a huge and sudden move downwards on no visible news although it obvious something significant has happened?
- Let my stop loss do its work
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trader_dante
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Gbp/Jpy *continued*
I can give you example after example of where I have called a move like this almost to the tick.
Even in a large and unpredictable move like the interest rate cut from the US I got in almost right at the bottom and out almost exactly at the top of the intraday move.
The point is not to brag. It's to show you how easy this is to do.
Will it happen like this EVERY time? Of course not.
The point is to mark the areas and watch the market.
I can give you example after example of where I have called a move like this almost to the tick.
Even in a large and unpredictable move like the interest rate cut from the US I got in almost right at the bottom and out almost exactly at the top of the intraday move.
The point is not to brag. It's to show you how easy this is to do.
Will it happen like this EVERY time? Of course not.
The point is to mark the areas and watch the market.
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trader_dante
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Everyone should refresh the page. I just turned the latest posts into full essays
Hi TD,
My friend at RBS, he sees everything!!!! gbpchf, gbpjpy and gbpusd.
Well done on the terrific posts and trades.
trader_dante
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Hi TD,
My friend at RBS, he sees everything!!!! gbpchf, gbpjpy and gbpusd.
Well hopefully he has seen Eur/Gbp.
This is THE market to be watching at the moment
trader_dante
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Have a look at this post that I wrote yesterday: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/374807-post901.html
I mark a clear S/R pivot at 1.4763. You can see a copy of the chart below (Chart 1)
Chart 2 is todays move.
I don't post this to prove anything other than that you can do this too.
It's not hard. It just takes a little practice.
Price does not always react so predictably but I can tell you that since I have been drawing these lines I can call market turns to within a few pips often enough to build an account from almost nothing to a considerable stake.
I mark a clear S/R pivot at 1.4763. You can see a copy of the chart below (Chart 1)
Chart 2 is todays move.
I don't post this to prove anything other than that you can do this too.
It's not hard. It just takes a little practice.
Price does not always react so predictably but I can tell you that since I have been drawing these lines I can call market turns to within a few pips often enough to build an account from almost nothing to a considerable stake.
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lurkerlurker
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TD - I'm a little surprised. I'm a bad trader, but I'm not that bad. The bar I was referring to was the > 100 pip decline in 15 minutes - which would be bar "8" on the hourly chart attached! I was merely pointing out that my initial BE stop was in a safe and sensible position and ought to have been kept there.
Yes. I'm trying. My next trade will be better. I've now realised that exiting trades in this manner does more damage to my account in the long run, and my execution confidence overall than the amount I would risk on any given trade. It is therefore better to be stopped out at the maximum loss for the trade (ie initial stop level) than to exit prematurely, causing long term negative expectancy. For example, my risk on this trade was 60 pips. Exiting at the time I did cost me more than 60 pips in potential profit. I know I can't catch the tops or the bottoms, but as far as I am concerned the difference between the profit earned from smooth, disciplined execution and the smaller profit "earned" from a sloppy, undisciplined execution might as well represent a "loss". If I cut winners short due to poor discipline, I will lose over time. As I don't assume excess risk per trade, it is better to be stopped out for a loss than to exit prematurely.
I'm going out to buy a white board! (in the interim, my old corkboard with printed charts will have to suffice). The electronic version:
Trade: GBP/JPY, 5 December 2007
Emotion: Fear (due to the EUR trade, and giving back of profits)
Action: Prematurely covering without a valid signal. Exiting at the market rather than on triggering of a properly trailed stop
Cost: The difference between my bad exit and where I would have been stopped out if I had trailed the stop mechanically and correctly, or in this case, 41 pips.
Thanks for your comments - they are helpful as always. However, I think our posts crossed and you missed my #921. I'd appreciate your thoughts on that.
lurkerlurker
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GBPJPY Trades
Just a quick note. Referring to the chart above, there were 2 pin bar signals today. Using the trailing stop on the hourly timeframe, and the entries taught by TD, the following profits could have been achieved.
Trade 1 - Long at 226.03, stopped and reversed at 226.92 for +89 less spread, or +81 in the bucket shops.
Trade 2 - reversal on opposing pin which also coincides with the trailing stop. Short 226.92, trailing the stop down on the hourly TF would give a stop in at 224.97, or a profit of +195 less spread (+187 in the bucket shops).
Executed properly with the appropriate hourly trailing stop using the methods taught by TD, we could all have achieved a total of +268 pips over two trades with a risk of no more than 60 pips per trade. This is on one forex pair. Even at £1pp, this would represent a 25% gain on my account in one day. It can be done. All that is required is knowledge of the method and discipline in executions. This isn't catching tops and bottoms, this isn't being perfect - it is entering on high probability pins and trailing the stop mechanically.
I think I now stand convinced that bad exits are wrong in light of this.
Just a quick note. Referring to the chart above, there were 2 pin bar signals today. Using the trailing stop on the hourly timeframe, and the entries taught by TD, the following profits could have been achieved.
Trade 1 - Long at 226.03, stopped and reversed at 226.92 for +89 less spread, or +81 in the bucket shops.
Trade 2 - reversal on opposing pin which also coincides with the trailing stop. Short 226.92, trailing the stop down on the hourly TF would give a stop in at 224.97, or a profit of +195 less spread (+187 in the bucket shops).
Executed properly with the appropriate hourly trailing stop using the methods taught by TD, we could all have achieved a total of +268 pips over two trades with a risk of no more than 60 pips per trade. This is on one forex pair. Even at £1pp, this would represent a 25% gain on my account in one day. It can be done. All that is required is knowledge of the method and discipline in executions. This isn't catching tops and bottoms, this isn't being perfect - it is entering on high probability pins and trailing the stop mechanically.
I think I now stand convinced that bad exits are wrong in light of this.
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trader_dante
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Hi Lurker - you have my sincerest apologies for that!
You're not a bad trader at all so don't be down on yourself! You just have to find a method that fits your personality and work on it. What you are doing now is a whole new ball game from the very short term Dow trading that you were doing when I first got to know you.
It will take time to master this new style.
I personally have tried many different techniques.
Among them are:
- Fundamental analysis only
- Breakout trading
- Spreads trading
- Latency scalping
- Tape reading of price and volume on shares
- A trend following system with rigid entry/exit rules on the daily TF
- Short term (5m) trading
- Swing trading.
Those are just the ones I remember. As I have said before, it took me seven years to get where I am with a method that I am comfortable with.
That was the post I was commenting on!
trader_dante
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I don't like the second pin. The main reason is because the body is not within the range of the previous bar.
This is where it becomes discretionary.
When you analyse these trades you may find that the body of the candle doesn't make the slightest bit of difference to the expected outcome.
Use your experience to hone your style.
lurkerlurker
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Just taken GBPJPY long at 224.59 on the break of that pin bar which is at similar levels to the rejection of the 224 lows yesterday. Stop in at 223.93, which doesn't seem the safest place in the world but is the only logical place to put this. I'm not too sure how this trade is going to turn out, but a 66 pip loss wouldn't surprise me.
Anyway, the point is I took the signal as it appeared, and have put stops in place. I'll be checking it again at 11, and again at 11:55 (anxious about holding long sterling into the "rate cut"). I'm pretty sure a cut is at least 50% priced in, so the position might be valid even into a 25bps cut, but I'm not sure if I want to hold long given 50bps could also happen.
I'll let price action be my guide. Good trading all.
Anyway, the point is I took the signal as it appeared, and have put stops in place. I'll be checking it again at 11, and again at 11:55 (anxious about holding long sterling into the "rate cut"). I'm pretty sure a cut is at least 50% priced in, so the position might be valid even into a 25bps cut, but I'm not sure if I want to hold long given 50bps could also happen.
I'll let price action be my guide. Good trading all.
Move the Stop
TD,
This is the first time ive posted on this forum & I want to add my thanks to the mountain already there for helping new traders like myself. Really very much appreciate it. I found this thread 3 days ago & it has taken me this long to read through it!
I have placed two trades since since using your method & both have been profitable, which is encouraging. I would like to post my chart of the second trade (which is the same one as lurker mentioned but I didnt see his post until just now).
I attach a chart of the pin I traded from. I bought GBPJPY long at 22453. Stop at 22400 - bottom of nose.
1) I wrote down a trigger to buy of 22460. But as I was working it out etc.. it had gone through the trigger & then dropped back to 22453. I figured that since I would have ordered at 22460 I was only reducing risk by contining to place my order now, even though it had dropped back to 22453. Is that thinking valid?
2) I would appreciate it if you would be able to comment on the pin I acted from & if I got the S/R points in the right place - did I miss any, etc...
3) The pin after the one I traded is also like a pin bar, but the nose doesnt stick out clear of the previous one. Once that pin had formed would you consider moving your stop to just below that second pin to reduce risk?
TD, thanks again in advance...
TD,
This is the first time ive posted on this forum & I want to add my thanks to the mountain already there for helping new traders like myself. Really very much appreciate it. I found this thread 3 days ago & it has taken me this long to read through it!
I have placed two trades since since using your method & both have been profitable, which is encouraging. I would like to post my chart of the second trade (which is the same one as lurker mentioned but I didnt see his post until just now).
I attach a chart of the pin I traded from. I bought GBPJPY long at 22453. Stop at 22400 - bottom of nose.
1) I wrote down a trigger to buy of 22460. But as I was working it out etc.. it had gone through the trigger & then dropped back to 22453. I figured that since I would have ordered at 22460 I was only reducing risk by contining to place my order now, even though it had dropped back to 22453. Is that thinking valid?
2) I would appreciate it if you would be able to comment on the pin I acted from & if I got the S/R points in the right place - did I miss any, etc...
3) The pin after the one I traded is also like a pin bar, but the nose doesnt stick out clear of the previous one. Once that pin had formed would you consider moving your stop to just below that second pin to reduce risk?
TD, thanks again in advance...
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Hi Tom --- Just dropping in to say hello.Great to see you are doing so well here. You seem to have mastered those last couple of missing pieces in your trading,making money was never a problem to you. I am just emerging from a period of major personal problems but should be able to concentrate on trading 100 % again soon.
As I have said before on here I admire anybody that is prepared to stick thier head above the parapet wall and run a thread like this, so well done and maybe see you on Messenger soon.
Kelvin ..........
As I have said before on here I admire anybody that is prepared to stick thier head above the parapet wall and run a thread like this, so well done and maybe see you on Messenger soon.
Kelvin ..........
lurkerlurker
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skynt, it is a good trade but is forming an opposite pin, and also we have the interest rate statement at 12. A cut could even be bullish for the pair as people would buy GBP to invest in FTSE stocks and after all the interest rate differential in this pair is decent whether our rates are at 5% or 6%.
Either way, I've no idea what they are up to on Threadneedle St, and even less idea how the market will react, so I've covered this position now.
Either way, I've no idea what they are up to on Threadneedle St, and even less idea how the market will react, so I've covered this position now.
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