Making Money Trading

[trader_dante]

Hi ER2-D2,

You said you prefered pins that weren't in a range, do you mean the latest couple of bars have been moving sideways? A range can of course be quite wide and tradeable so just wanted to be sure I understood you correctly.

This is very hard for me to explain. (There are some excellent videos that explain this in the J16 PF - As it happens I watched one for the second time last night)

Trading a pin bar within a range can be profitable but I want to see the pin bar creating space away from the other bars immediately surrounding it.

Chart 1 is an example of TWO pin bars within a range on the Gbp/Usd daily TF that I would NOT have taken. The bars themselves look perfect and their nose touches the lows of the range but they appear within a sideways movement. They don't swing DOWN into the support.

Chart 2 shows a pin bar in a range on the Usd/Jpy 1hr TF. This pin bar has created a lot of space away from the other bars. It swings UP into the resistance and is firmly rejected. I would certainly have taken this.

Not going to go o/t on my second post, but it'd make me think more about a topic which was briefly touched upon many pages ago in this thread; how to manage trades that don't have much above resistance.

How would such a market be traded differently by you, if you don't mind touching upon that again?

When a market goes into uncharted territory I rely on my EMAs and price action as it develops in order to trail my stop.

 

[trader_dante]

TD,
I wondered, how often do you start drawing new lines from a fresh chart?
I don't think you can give exact numbers but is it more like once a week or every day?
I have drawn the lines some time ago now, and feel like starting with a fresh chart, cause a number off the old lines don't tell me anything anymore.

This is something you have to stay on top of. You are right when you say the old lines will stop telling you anything.

In general, areas drawn on the daily TF will last longer. This is a very rouch guideline but I would say at the end of every week, evaluate your daily TF to see if any new levels are being created

On my hourly charts I only have ONE MONTH of data. I only like to keep the areas that I can SEE are significant so if I have a line on my hourly TF but the highs and lows that created it occured longer than a month ago and I can no longer SEE them, I delete that line.

I look at the hourly TF more frequently. Twice a week is an approximation.

 

[Tenapenny]

Good luck t_d. I'm sure you will succeed and thank you for all that you have shared with us.

 

[forexbee]

Chart 2 shows a pin bar in a range on the Usd/Jpy 1hr TF. This pin bar has created a lot of space away from the other bars. It swings UP into the resistance and is firmly rejected. I would certainly have taken this.

Hi TD,

What do you mean by "created a lot of space away from other bars", Couldnt understand that on the chart..Pls clarify.

I believe you will continue your lessons in this thread.

Fxbee

 

[trader_dante]

What do you mean by "created a lot of space away from other bars", Couldnt understand that on the chart..Pls clarify.

Firstly (and this may seem like a stupid question) can you see the chart correctly? The reason I ask is that when I click to open it, it resizes it to view in the browser window. This distorts the picture but not in any immediately visible way. When I look at it on this computer for example, there is NO pin bar at all until I enlarge the image!

At any rate, the concept of creating space is hard for me to define.

I was hoping that the charts I posted would provide some kind of intuitive sense of the bars that qualify.

The best I can do to explain is to say that the BODY of the bar should be sharply higher or lower than the preceeding bars (except for the immediately preceeding bar).

I am not sure if this makes sense but I am having trouble conveying my meaning.

I believe you will continue your lessons in this thread.

I certainly will.

 

[forexbee]

Firstly (and this may seem like a stupid question) can you see the chart correctly? The reason I ask is that when I click to open it, it resizes it to view in the browser window. This distorts the picture but not in any immediately visible way. When I look at it on this computer for example, there is NO pin bar at all until I enlarge the image!

Yes TD, whenever i open chart i either click on image to zoom it (in Windows Vista) or hover the mouse on chart and you get a zoomin icon at bottom right corner (Windows XP). So perfectly fine with it.

I was hoping that the charts I posted would provide some kind of intuitive sense of the bars that qualify.

The best I can do to explain is to say that the BODY of the bar should be sharply higher or lower than the preceeding bars (except for the immediately preceeding bar).

I am not sure if this makes sense but I am having trouble conveying my meaning.

I understand partially, but i feel i have to feel that naturally when iam viewing the market. I hope in due course of period i will understand this.

Fxbee

 

[firewalker99]

Hi Firewalker,

There are a couple of reasons why i probably would have taken it:
1. It's a valid pin
2. it's at a 50 ret. fib line
3. if you look to the left, you see that the momentum down is bigger (sharp angle descending red bars) then the struggle back up.

I think i would have taken it, but i was asleep when it happened, so thats the reason why i didn't.

Hasn't moved a whole lot in the meantime, but still a profitable trade by the looks of it.
Chart attached is a blow-up view of what happened.

 

[firewalker99]

The next stage for you

...

Will not copy&paste your whole post here t_d, but I would like to say "so true".

Excellent and honest post, and wishing you all the best on the journey to a master -fulltime- trader you are close to becoming.

 

[ER2-D2]

Hasn't moved a whole lot in the meantime, but still a profitable trade by the looks of it.
Chart attached is a blow-up view of what happened.

That's interesting, I'm just looking into that PA pattern since it is a 2-bar pin (2 equally long full body bars, 1 red/1 green). The only thing it has against it is slower rejection on the timeframe you're looking at.

 

[ER2-D2]

Hi ER2-D2,



This is very hard for me to explain. (There are some excellent videos that explain this in the J16 PF - As it happens I watched one for the second time last night)

Trading a pin bar within a range can be profitable but I want to see the pin bar creating space away from the other bars immediately surrounding it.

Chart 1 is an example of TWO pin bars within a range on the Gbp/Usd daily TF that I would NOT have taken. The bars themselves look perfect and their nose touches the lows of the range but they appear within a sideways movement. They don't swing DOWN into the support.

Chart 2 shows a pin bar in a range on the Usd/Jpy 1hr TF. This pin bar has created a lot of space away from the other bars. It swings UP into the resistance and is firmly rejected. I would certainly have taken this.

When a market goes into uncharted territory I rely on my EMAs and price action as it develops in order to trail my stop.

Thanks a lot TD. It is pretty clear.

 

[ER2-D2]

Drawing pivots

I've looked at EURAUD and was wondering about the amount of pivots you would recommend drawing?

I've attached daily and weekly charts, I've drawn in all pivots (not just the ones closest to current price). TD, would you have settled for this amount, or are they even at the areas you'd have set them?

I went down to hourly as well but didn't see much of interest during the last rally, as far as pivots go.

Thanks, and once again, I wish you best of luck.

 

[trader_dante]

Eur/Aud

ER2-D2,

I'll take a look now.

In the meantime, have a look at the two day pattern on 25-26 July and then compare it to that of 31 Oct-01 Nov.

This is one of the most remarkable things I have seen in a long time.

Tom

 

[trader_dante]

I've looked at EURAUD and was wondering about the amount of pivots you would recommend drawing?

I've attached daily and weekly charts, I've drawn in all pivots (not just the ones closest to current price). TD, would you have settled for this amount, or are they even at the areas you'd have set them?

I went down to hourly as well but didn't see much of interest during the last rally, as far as pivots go.

Thanks, and once again, I wish you best of luck.

Hi ER2-D2,

Yes this is an acceptable amount - it looks like you have marked all the significant pivots. Good job

Tom

 

[lurkerlurker]

Well, it didn't go as I expected.
Luckely I moved my stop late last night to BE, when i saw there wasn't any power in the move (it's called momentum isn't it? ) after two candles. (see chart)

TD,
I wondered, how often do you start drawing new lines from a fresh chart?
I don't think you can give exact numbers but is it more like once a week or every day?
I have drawn the lines some time ago now, and feel like starting with a fresh chart, cause a number off the old lines don't tell me anything anymore.

You were stopped out for BE too? Oh well, as TD says, it is just another trade in time.

 

[lurkerlurker]

I just wanted to let you all know that I have just handed in my notice at work and will be leaving my job shortly to become a full time trader

Pleased to hear it mate. I understand exactly where you are coming from as I too left work to trade full time for 9 months. I made a profit in the end, but not enough to support myself (although it was never my intention to trade full time for a living, and I knew I couldn't with that account size). I just wanted to see what trading full time was like, and whether I could make a profit. You can blow a large account as easily as a small account, so I obviously didn't start with enough that it would affect me to lose it all, which also meant it wasn't enough to live off.

It will be difficult for the reasons you state, but I'm sure this thread will keep you busy enough in the quiet times.

 

[lurkerlurker]

The one thing I have to overcome is the negative reaction from those around me. Friends, family and loved ones want to believe in me but deep down whatever WE know about it - trading to everyone else is simply a socially acceptable roulette wheel. It's hard to change anyones opinion on that whether you make money at it or not. So I've given up trying. It is hard when people constantly tell you that you cannot or will not succeed but in the end you have to trust in yourself.

There was a good thread about this on T2W. Personally I tell as few people as possible that I trade. This was the case when I was doing it full time. Now I mention it if it comes up in conversation, but I tend to play it down where possible. Everyone has a few shares in their ISA/PEP, but nobody believes sitting in front of a screen speculating is a substitute for being a wage slave.

 

[ER2-D2]

ER2-D2,

I'll take a look now.

In the meantime, have a look at the two day pattern on 25-26 July and then compare it to that of 31 Oct-01 Nov.

This is one of the most remarkable things I have seen in a long time.

Tom

Thanks TD. That is indeed pretty amazing. Makes you wonder why you don't look at price action more. Well, personally anyway.

 

[Paresh]

Go for it.

Good luck in your endeavours td

 

[lurkerlurker]

GBPJPY Hourly Pin

Just testing my new alert service, and it flagged this trade up nicely.

Note this is the third day in a row where there was a profitable pin from those levels. I took this one short on the break at 90, and unfortunately covered it prematurely to get to bed.* I see it has fallen as far as 50 now. Too tired to post a chart, and I have no business being up at this time, but these pins can be very profitable to the patient and discerning trader.**


* - also, got burned the other night with an abrupt reversal, and it was too soon to sensibly set a stop at breakeven, so I banked my profit instead.

** - okay, so how do I become patient and discerning? Practice? Further study under the excellent TD?

 

[lurkerlurker]

More Hourly Pins

Just about to go to bed when I checked my alert service at 3:01: GBPUSD hourly pin just formed.

This is effectively betting against GBP weakness in the same way as the GBPJPY short, so it isn't all about the Yen tonight (although carry pairs have been firing off signals all over the place).

I've an order in to sell 2.0725 with a stop at 2.0765, target open but first S likely to be around 2.0680. Note that this pin bar bounces off the 50% fib for the recent swing high and low.

There is also a signal on the CHFJPY which bounces off a strong consolidation range. I'm going to pass this up because I am unfamiliar with this pair and don't see any more confluence.

A further signal on the EURJPY in the form of two back to back bearish hourly pins. The entry is very close to support, so I'll need to be careful with this one, but a break would indicate a good trade indeed. Otherwise, the risk is 65 pips. Note that a break of the EURJPY hourly pin is also a break of the previous days daily pin bar - pretty convincing to me that the upside is being rejected however the previous day pin bar is well within the range of each of the daily bars for some time, so this trade is a touch speculative.

EURJPY order is in short at 161.02 with stop at 161.67.

Looks like no bed for me if these are filled before 4am. Otherwise I'm pulling the orders as I've seen better looking setups fail if not triggered on the next bar.