Making Money Trading

[trader_dante]

@TD, Hi TD how was the getogether yday in london....! iam a bit struck in my work in guildford, possibly in two months i might move for my job to london...Will try to meet you guys in next getogether....

Hi forexbee, I had a really good night. It was great to put faces to some of the names on here. Thanks to Fibonelli for arranging it all - you did a very good job! Fxbee, I hope to see you at the next one

 

[forexbee]

Lurker, look at the daily on this pair you just shorted. The price has bounced at the 61 fib which coincides with the bottom of the range in this market.

TD,
Asusual , you shed more light by teaching to look on longer timeframe chart (daily) to view the hourly pinbar is good enough for the ride...! (which a newbie like me might take it immediately jumping after identifying like this without considering the full study of it)...Good lesson learned.

lurkerlurker, Good work mate,

Thanks, Fxbee

 

[lurkerlurker]

90 minutes in and the trade is showing diminished potential. I'm thinking about bailing MOC if it forms a bullish daily pin. If it does so without taking out the high, we have 2 bullish back to back pins with the same high print. Also, at the fib and a support level as TD mentioned.

Looks like I'm wrong on this trade. Looking for an exit now, but can't see a better decision than the break of the 3pm high.

 

[trader_dante]

Looks like I'm wrong on this trade. Looking for an exit now, but can't see a better decision than the break of the 3pm high.

As discussed above this was not the best trade to have taken but you are still not WRONG until the high of the pin is broken.

Any exit beforehand is pre-empting the market and second guessing yourself and in my opinion should only be done if there is a good reason such as an actual market close where you cannot offset out of hours.

 

[Paresh]

Shares

Hello TD,

I've been a member for a while, just haven't traded that much until relatively recently, I just finished backreading through your entire thread. Very interesting. Could you just remind me why your methods do not work for shares?

Thanks

Paresh

 

[lurkerlurker]

As discussed above this was not the best trade to have taken but you are still not WRONG until the high of the pin is broken.

Any exit beforehand is pre-empting the market and second guessing yourself and in my opinion should only be done if there is a good reason such as an actual market close where you cannot offset out of hours.

Perhaps not the best trade, but the high hasn't been violated, and we've just made a new low since the pin triggered. I'm cautious since this is one large down bar in 15 minutes, however I should follow the technicals and stay in the trade!

 

[trader_dante]

Perhaps not the best trade, but the high hasn't been violated, and we've just made a new low since the pin triggered. I'm cautious since this is one large down bar in 15 minutes, however I should follow the technicals and stay in the trade!

Keep the faith. You are in profit. If I was in this I would put a stop at BE and see if it can take out the minor S/R level it is testing right now. Good luck Lurker and well done!

 

[lurkerlurker]

A winning trade from TD

Keep the faith. You are in profit. If I was in this I would put a stop at BE and see if it can take out the minor S/R level it is testing right now. Good luck Lurker and well done!

Thanks for that. I think this will close below the minor S/R level at 8550. Unfortunately, IG won't let me move my stop in this close on the AUD/CAD, so I can't do a BE stop. As I am going out, I can't really leave this trade running.

Back when it had moved against me, I revised my target by half as I identified S/R at 50. I placed a limit order to take profit. I pulled this order when I saw the market was about to fill it, but after waiting another 15 minutes I was out of time. If I had been able to do a BE stop I would have, and I'll leave a "paper trade" here on that basis.

Anyway, I took the short entry based on TD's system entering a few ticks below the low of the pin, and set a stop a few ticks above. Even accounting for spread, that gave a decent R:R. I covered for +22.

I could post charts here, but TD already has, but since this is my first live forex pin bar trade, it will be going in my journal soon with before and after charts, and additional commentary.

2 trades today, both winners. These pin bars are really powerful. Just don't drop down to a lower timeframe and panic an exit if they move against you - as TD teaches, the only safe place for the stop is beyond the nose of a pin.

If I follow the system, this could be the first in a string of profitable trades. Bear in mind there may be some losers along the way, but this system has a high win % compared to what I am used to. I am the sort of trader who would prefer to win 80% of the time with 1:1 RR rather than 50% of the time with 3:1 RR. Also, I was damaging my account (and confidence) by overtrading on small timeframes and getting shaken out. I should be more comfortable with the longer timeframes.

Thanks again for showing us the way TD.

 

[trader_dante]

Hello TD,

I've been a member for a while, just haven't traded that much until relatively recently, I just finished backreading through your entire thread. Very interesting. Could you just remind me why your methods do not work for shares?

Thanks

Paresh

Hi Paresh, it DOES work on shares. Have a look at the Randgold chart that Fibonelli posted yesterday! The only thing I said is that I PERSONALLY do not trade shares anymore. I have built up a feeling for the markets I trade because I watch them every single day that I can. The number of shares that are listed and the different indexes they are listed on makes the stock market simply too vast for me to get to grips with.

 

[trader_dante]

Anyway, I took the short entry based on TD's system entering a few ticks below the low of the pin, and set a stop a few ticks above. Even accounting for spread, that gave a decent R:R. I covered for +22.

Hey Lurker, glad you profited from this. It's really not MY system, it's just price action and the way I play it.

The strength of the pin combined with the fact that it came at good resistance worked for you this time but a trader should always be looking at ways to improve and one way of doing this is to analyse all your trades - the good ones and the bad.

Remember that you were trading short into a daily bounce off a key fib level and the bottom of a solid range. When you trade these setups, try and stack the odds in your favour as much as possible. If you trade an hourly setup, always have a look at the daily TF for possible problem areas.

 

[bbmac]

well done lurker, and well done too to trader_dante, very solid advice being imparted here.

 

[Paresh]

thanks

thanks td

 

[trader_dante]

Anatomy of a setup

Sometimes I will see something on the weekly or monthly TF that looks very interesting.

I will show you one pair I am currently keeping an eye on, why I am doing so and what I am looking out for.

EUR/GBP

I have seen traders in forums saying they hate this pair. The reasons that are usually given are that its slow moving and doesn't have a large daily ATR. I guess whether some traders choose this instrument depends on whether they are looking for excitement or looking to treat this as a business and make a profit.

Looking at the monthly TF on this pair, there is a clear breakout of a descending triangle.

Look how price has been turning around the lower support/resistance pivot since 1986.

When I initially see this I want to have a closer look at the price action where it broke out.

 

[trader_dante]

Eur/Gbp *continued*

If we zoom in you can see that the breakout was tested almost to the pip and an inside bar formed.

An inside bar is where the range of the bar (low-high) is LESS than the preceeding bar.

If you get one inside bar it means that the price is CONSOLIDATING.

If I find inside bars at key levels I like to play them in the direction I anticipate the market to break. In this case it would be upwards.

 

[trader_dante]

Eur/Gbp *continued*

So the next thing I want to know is if I WAS to take this, where would it be likely to run into problems?

The first thing I notice is a clearly visible area of resistance around 250 pips higher.

You should be able to see from this chart that although the breakout of this descending trend line gives us a bullish bias, we are still WITHIN a solid trading RANGE.

 

[trader_dante]

Eur/Gbp *continued*

Next I draw in a fib from the all time highs and see where the key levels land.

You can see that the 50 falls NEAR our key resistance (it is approximately 100 pips higher than it but this is a monthly chart)

By having these levels on our chart we know in advance to expect that if this takes off, the move could stall or even turn around on us at this area.

 

[trader_dante]

Eur/Gbp *continued*

Now, since I regularly trade daily and 1hr timeframes, I could go down to one of those levels and search for a better entry.

However, on the lower TF's of weekly, daily and hourly there is a large area of consolidation with choppy price action.

So, in this case, I will put an entry above that inside bar on the MONTHLY chart and a stop below it.

To position trade in this way you have to be VERY patient as it could take a long time for the trade to play out.

Remember, the patience required INCREASES the higher up the timeframes you trade.

 

[Tennis]

So, in this case, I will put an entry above that inside bar on the MONTHLY chart and a stop below it.

To position trade in this way you have to be VERY patient as it could take a long time for the trade to play out.

Remember, the patience required increases the higher up the timeframes you trade.

Hi T_D,

I just want to clarify your entry point - it seems to me there is that initial inside bar following the breakout, and then there is another inside bar within the initial inside bar... are you putting your entry above the initial inside bar or the most recent inside bar? Thanks for the help =)

 

[redart007]

Short AUD/CAD from 8572 with stop of 8620 and target of 8500 or lower based on an hourly pin bar at resistance.

Hi ,

I've had a look at this trade and looked at it in a larger time frame, see attached, not sure if everyone will agree with my analysis but...

As you will see on the weeklys there is alots of S/R going on at the current level and it easier to see the range of prices on the dailys and that the current price is at the low of that range - support.

Rather that try to short through that area my thinking would be look for a Pin to go long?
or wait for the price to reach the top level and wait for an opportunity to short there as itermediate trend is down.

One of the most useful peices of advice is to alway look at the time frame greater then the one you are trading to get a better idea of whats actually happening.

How did it work out in the end?

Cheers

Red

 

[trader_dante]

As you will see on the weeklys there is alots of S/R going on at the current level and it easier to see the range of prices on the dailys and that the current price is at the low of that range - support.

One of the most useful peices of advice is to alway look at the time frame greater then the one you are trading to get a better idea of whats actually happening.

Agreed, I made this point right after Lurker took the trade

How did it work out in the end?

Lurker took profit as it came into the hourly s/r pivot and made it out for +22