Make 20% profit in a year?

[KIMMRUNNER]

Im not here

250% returns in a year? - So what exactly are you doing on this board?

I am not generally on this board. Havent posted here for many months.
I just look in frpm time to time out of curiosity - and what sparked my attention was
someone paying hundreds for a trading course which seemed to contain a rehash of what is in a £10 book.

I was trying to find out how someone justified spending several hundred pounds on a trading course -the post that attracted my attention- which is why I posted on this thread - to psycho analyse that situation. As I indicated, I have tried selling a scheme that actually works, (for change), only to discover that the psychology of traders prevents ever being able to sell a working scheme at any price at all.

If it is cheap noone believes it or buys it, but if it is expensive, suprisingly they are probably more inclined to believe it but even less likely to buy it still!. So there is no way around peoples own credulity.

Sad , but true.

 

[roguetrader]

Personally I am surprised that "how it is" sparks so much surprise or interest, all seems fairly logical to me, not bright but logical

It's a fairly well established fact, in the advertising and marketing industry, that the vast majority of No1 (best selling) products in their field are not the best product in that field, often far from it, they are simply the best marketed.

 

[roguetrader]

As I indicated, I have tried selling a scheme that actually works, (for change), only to discover that the psychology of traders prevents ever being able to sell a working scheme at any price at all.

As for your trading system, let us suppose, just for a minute, that it didn't work. Do you think you would have had any more success selling it? I doubt it, so whether or not the system really works is not really the issue. It is simply yet another system amongst a plethora of systems and will sell or not by how well it is marketed.

 

[karmit]

I am not generally on this board. Havent posted here for many months.
I just look in frpm time to time out of curiosity - and what sparked my attention was
someone paying hundreds for a trading course which seemed to contain a rehash of what is in a £10 book.

I was trying to find out how someone justified spending several hundred pounds on a trading course -the post that attracted my attention- which is why I posted on this thread - to psycho analyse that situation. As I indicated, I have tried selling a scheme that actually works, (for change), only to discover that the psychology of traders prevents ever being able to sell a working scheme at any price at all.

If it is cheap noone believes it or buys it, but if it is expensive, suprisingly they are probably more inclined to believe it but even less likely to buy it still!. So there is no way around peoples own credulity.

Sad , but true.

Thanks KIMMRUNNER for your kind visit to the board.

Please do share your pearls of wisdom.

 

[*JDR*]

The entire point I have been trying to make is summed up in JDR response
( no offense intended mate! but the psychology fascinates me)

None taken, because I don't believe you understand the psychology.

Trading is all about psychology. You can give a person the best "system" in the world and they will still fail.

You can give a good trader a random pick system and they will succeed.

Interesting logic - that it should be given away, when JDR has said that he would only part with such a thing for massive fees and a percentage!

Again, I do believe a "system" should be given away. If you want to sell something then sell the seminars that concentrate on psychology.

Regarding my "massive fees" comment you are selectively quoting me and quoting me incorrectly. I said:

Very true. If I had magically hit upon a system that gives me 2% return a week guaranteed (using that number as I am sure i have seen some market that return), then the best offer you would get out of me is that for a hefty cut of the profits, I will manage your money

Key words are "magically" and "guaranteed"... You will see no mention of "massive fees".

More misquotes are welcome.

 

[KIMMRUNNER]

Picking nits

First of all JDR I am here simply because the discussion interests me - so please do
not take anything I say as either personal or offensive.

BUT, I disagree with most of your last post so here goes:

You can give a good trader a random pick system and they will succeed.
.

Not so !! & I challenge you to produce any shred of evidence to substantiate that.

Random picking, of instrument type, time and direction is clearly fatal: and would
only make your broker rich , not you.

The moment you start actively choosing either the timing, direction or both, of entry or exit of a trade you are no longer random picking but following some kind of logical trading "system", whether written or not, mechanical or not, instinctive or not: it is still a system, not random picking - and every succesful trader follows a system.

I said:
Key words are "magically" and "guaranteed"...

Keep to the real world of trading ?. No guarantees are possible- if you want guarantees keep to index linked bonds, not trading: moreover if you ever found your 2% system, you nor anyone else could give a guarantee. I do believe high probability of success is possible though, and have at least to my own satisfaction proven it.

Regarding my "massive fees" comment you are selectively quoting me and quoting me incorrectly. I said:
.

Your phrase was "a hefty cut of the profits" - I fail to see the distinction between that and my unintentional paraphrase "massive fees" which seems to be to be picking nits?.
I will strike the words "massive fees" and allow you the phrase " hefty cut" if the distinction matters.

You can give a person the best "system" in the world and they will still fail.

This begs the question:

Why are you looking at a board about mechanical trading when you clearly do
not believe the underlying precept that mechnical trading is possible?

I do believe it & in as far as is reasonably possible have demonstrated it.

I have also demonstrated to myself at least that there is a psychology problem which prevents any information of this type of real value to be saleable: the answers to my poll have confirmed it. Nobody is prepared to believe that any system for sale can have value, by virtue of the fact that it is for sale.!! - which is the interesting piece of psychology to me.

The oddity is that this is not true in all walks of life - even all walks of gambling life, and lets not dignify anything other than long term trading with the word "investment" it is essentially gambling. The principles of sports betting arbitrage are there in the literature, and there is no doubt that if you can be bothered with it , it works within limits. The mere fact that such information is for sale does not devalue the information.

I can only assume that the people that ARE clearly buying expensive systems, are actually from outside the world of trading, hit perhaps by one of these interminable mailshots?, and the lure of riches?

Finally

I do believe a "system" should be given away

By your own admission if you had such a system you would not do this!
Why do you expect anyone else to do so?

Enough. This topic is now exhausted really,

Except to say that I hope your " Random Picking, because you are a good trader" does as well as my "System based upon noticing that the indexes are nowhere near as random as you might believe". If I knew nothing about trading and had to back one of two people with those separate rallying cries, I know which I would choose.

I can tell at least one trader on this board who shall remain nameless, but has been reading this board, that whatever his recent short of the DOW was based upon in technical terms, he picked a dreadful! time to do it and stood at best only 20% chance of success, and so I think events proved.

Time to move on.

 

[*JDR*]

First of all JDR I am here simply because the discussion interests me - so please do
not take anything I say as either personal or offensive.

Dito. Just like quotes to be accurate.

Not so !! & I challenge you to produce any shred of evidence to substantiate that

I believe I could, but do not have the time to trawl through all the rubbish that will come back should I search for this on google. We shall just have to differ on this point.

Why are you looking at a board about mechanical trading when you clearly do
not believe the underlying precept that mechnical trading is possible?

All things about trading interest me. I am smart enough to know that I don't know a lot, so I am happy to read all and any opinions to do with any subject that interests me.

Mechanical systems can work if you can totally remove the psychology. I don't believe you can do this. When trader X, Y & Z are all drawn down 50% following the same system. Most likely all will abandon the system and miss the swing back into positive returns. Only those that have the psychology to deal with this will come through it unscathed.

Time to move on

OK, bye.

 

[Hook Shot]

You guys have made my day ........ so far !!!
Thx

 

[lachie]

Ahh Darren Winters, what a prat.

My brother and I who were beginner spreadbetters at the time (though we both do work in the City) went along to one of these to hopefully learn something.

I don't know how this guy can sleep at night, the rubbish he was trying to sell to a room full of non-financial savvy people. Making it sound like it was so easy to be a stock market millionaire (if you did his £3000 course of course!)

He even had the gall to brag how rich he was and the only reason he did these seminars was because he wanted to develop a new skill of public speaking!

My brother and I got up and walked out in the middle of it, should have seen Darrens face, he stopped mid sentence and stood with open mouth while we made our way to the door, noisily opening and closing it behind us, it was priceless.

 

[*JDR*]

You guys have made my day ........ so far !!!
Thx

Although happy to entertain, I hope your day improves considerably.

 

[mr_cassandra]

20% in a year

I think with some work, you can find mutual funds which deliver 20% annual and avoid all that work. I think vanguard heatlh fund has been doing it for many years. There are also mechanical systems discussed at Ihub that are public, free and documented that deliver far more than 20%. There's a poster there named nocona who has an excellent rsi-5 hourly system on qqqq and lately has moved up to a 15 min bar system. They post clear details on what they do all day long. Nothing for sale, free and public. Like any other system discussed on the boards, you'll get harrumphing detractors who say it can't be done. Drive around them and check for yourself.

Hey,

I went to a introductionary evening for WINtrading last night. Basically pitched as a free course in trading but really a sales pitch for their £££ 3 day course to trading.

The talk had a very good sales person using the right skills to get people in the room thinking that its an opportunity NOT to be missed. tbh i thought it was a bit overkill and got me instantly on the backfoot.

I looked at the course book and it all looked a bit simple and i would prob get more from reading a few decent books and chatting on forums. I think id need to sit down and watch a daytrader make money in real time, that would be the only course that would interest me i think. Anyone have any good reports on this course?

Anyway one good thing i picked up was this longer term strategy. Do you think this would work...

Make 20% profit in a year
1) Get a list of the Dow Jones 30 stocks from www.stock1.com
2) Select the 10 with the highest dividend yield
3) from these 10 select the 5 with the lowest stock price
4) on the first day of the year buy equsal amounts of each of these 5
5) hold for one year then sell them all
6) repeat the process next year

Few questions:
1)Would this strategy work?
2)What broker would it be best to use to buy american stocks. I use selftrade and would they still give a good spread on american markets?
3)Do they mean at the start of the financial year or in january? when do i need to buy in order to get dividend rights?

Good to know what people think!
Craig

 

[KIMMRUNNER]

I think with some work, you can find mutual funds which deliver 20% annual and avoid all that work. I think vanguard heatlh fund has been doing it for many years. There are also mechanical systems discussed at Ihub that are public, free and documented that deliver far more than 20%. There's a poster there named nocona who has an excellent rsi-5 hourly system on qqqq and lately has moved up to a 15 min bar system. They post clear details on what they do all day long. Nothing for sale, free and public. Like any other system discussed on the boards, you'll get harrumphing detractors who say it can't be done. Drive around them and check for yourself.

Sorry to sound dumb!

What is "lhub"?

 

[*JDR*]

I think he might be referring to investorshub.com

 

[Hittfeld]

I think with some work, you can find mutual funds which deliver 20% annual and avoid all that work. I think vanguard heatlh fund has been doing it for many years. There are also mechanical systems discussed at Ihub that are public, free and documented that deliver far more than 20%. There's a poster there named nocona who has an excellent rsi-5 hourly system on qqqq and lately has moved up to a 15 min bar system. They post clear details on what they do all day long. Nothing for sale, free and public. Like any other system discussed on the boards, you'll get harrumphing detractors who say it can't be done. Drive around them and check for yourself.

Hi mr_cassandra /mvp

I am aware of nocona`s hourly rsi5 system -which he is not using anymore?- , but not of a 15 min bar system. I thought he was dabbling with woodie`s cci. Could you give a link on the ihub csg post describing his system?

Thanks

Hittfeld

 

[mr_cassandra]

Link to NERS system

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=14508055

Hitt, most of the entire board discussion is about this. See nocona and gloe. Too fast for me, not enough time.

Hi mr_cassandra /mvp

I am aware of nocona`s hourly rsi5 system -which he is not using anymore?- , but not of a 15 min bar system. I thought he was dabbling with woodie`s cci. Could you give a link on the ihub csg post discribing his system?

Thanks

Hittfeld

 

[mr_cassandra]

You raise a number of good points

First I strongly agree not everyone is suited to trading, regardless of the method. Like life it takes patience, perseverence and drive. How many people would be discouraged at the first loser, or kite off to a different method as they saw it.
I love the critics of for sale systems and all their reasons it must not be true. If someone works at it for years and its viable, why not ? Collective2.com gives them a good way to prove it first.
I'd say more realistic instead of dismissing them all ofhandedly, always demand independent verification.
Then you have the armchair system critics who proudly pronounce 'if really worked, everyone would do it and it would become self-negating'. Those fellas realy need to study human nature.
Human nature wants every trade a winner, little or no work, never a drawdown or loss. Therefore, no system or method will ever become that widespread.
Your question about where do they get all the idiots? Again remember human nature. Greed and laziness. This combined with a smooth sale pitch, you'll always get particpants.
I sat in a seminar for wade cooks rolling stocks. The speaker showed everyone a chart of a so-called 'rolling stock'. I watched their faces as well as the speaker. No one seemed to know they were looking at a utility stock 3 month ex-dividend pattern. Sad.

It took 5 years of looking to discover what I know.

But as regards anyone can be a succesful trader I am not at all convinced. It is very much the
same targument hat not many are equipped psychologically to run their own businesses. -
the background I am from. I get bored with trading and the discipline of following a system, and come unstuck when I go "off piste"!!!



Latter numbers are more or less right - only discovered the scheme just over a year ago so it has 19 years back testing and a year trading ( and if you saw how it worked you would realise that it is so fundamental to the market that it gives confidence that it is unlikely to change)



QED the psychology I stated - the assumption that if it was any good it would not be for sale.!!!

Point proven.

But then back to my original question that got me into this debate. Why on earth are people
paying severa hundred pounds a throw for a mixture of myth and old hat most of which never did work!

I dont need to sell it - but since it was all extra income that did not affect me in the slightest, why not - we are all capitalists on this board arent we? . I dont need to trade & dont trade much at all (which incidentally I dont enjoy -and for me the challenge has always been in beating the system, which I now feel I have done).

I do enjoy writing and publishing.



Cant answer that because I dont understand the distinction you are trying to draw The system tells me when to buy and sell an index, on the basis of daily trades at close. Dont know whether that fits your definition or not.



Who said full or even part time? never spent more than a few hours on it in the evening.
I spend my life in a lot more creative ways - I am a creative person.



Interesting logic - that it should be given away, when JDR has said that he would only part with such a thing for massive fees and a percentage!


The entire point I have been trying to make is summed up in JDR response
( no offense intended mate! but the psychology fascinates me)

The assumption that if it was any good it would not be for sale or it would be at a prohibitive price. That any $50 bill left lying about must me a fake. So there is almost no way as far as I can see that a legitimate system can ever be sold.

What continues to amaze me however is how many of these scams ( such as the " number one system" apparently prosper!. Where on earth do they summon up enough idiots to pay thousands for the lamentable performance that they put on their website? Most people it
seems to me dont even know the basics of how to evaluate a trading scheme, let alone
how to operate one.

And no, I have no intention of giving away what I know.
I never did release the full system for sale - only enough to achieve the performance I stated.

 

[mr_cassandra]

Let me know what you think after reading.

Also take a look at tmg board there, the program name is merlin.[

QUOTE=Hittfeld]Hi mr_cassandra /mvp

I am aware of nocona`s hourly rsi5 system -which he is not using anymore?- , but not of a 15 min bar system. I thought he was dabbling with woodie`s cci. Could you give a link on the ihub csg post describing his system?

Thanks

Hittfeld[/QUOTE]

 

[Hittfeld]

Also take a look at tmg board there, the program name is merlin.[

QUOTE=Hittfeld]Hi mr_cassandra /mvp

I am aware of nocona`s hourly rsi5 system -which he is not using anymore?- , but not of a 15 min bar system. I thought he was dabbling with woodie`s cci. Could you give a link on the ihub csg post describing his system?

Thanks

Hittfeld

[/QUOTE]


Thanks for the link mr_cassandra. Being a longtime lurker on those boards, I will subscribe this weekend.

Do you know, where I could possibly download an uptodate version of THE spreadsheet ( no- not yours, unfortunately you won`t give it to me - but the CSG...) ?

Furthermore have you ever seen an updated version of TVP5?

And last, but not least, any other free timing spreadsheets?

Thanks

Hittfeld

 

[mr_cassandra]

mechanical systems

Hitt, inquire at link below for a csgcos sheet
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=6260

I've never heard of tvp5

Can't think of any other freebies. I'll be putting mine on the backburner as long as merlin continues to perform consistently. I can always use mine as a backup.

disclaimer merlin is a paid svc. whether one thinks its worth it or not depends on an honest look at ones own results.



Thanks for the link mr_cassandra. Being a longtime lurker on those boards, I will subscribe this weekend.

Do you know, where I could possibly download an uptodate version of THE spreadsheet ( no- not yours, unfortunately you won`t give it to me - but the CSG...) ?

Furthermore have you ever seen an updated version of TVP5?

And last, but not least, any other free timing spreadsheets?

Thanks

Hittfeld[/QUOTE]

 

[Hittfeld]

Hitt, inquire at link below for a csgcos sheet
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=6260

I've never heard of tvp5

Can't think of any other freebies. I'll be putting mine on the backburner as long as merlin continues to perform consistently. I can always use mine as a backup.

disclaimer merlin is a paid svc. whether one thinks its worth it or not depends on an honest look at ones own results.




Thanks for the link mr_cassandra. Being a longtime lurker on those boards, I will subscribe this weekend.

Do you know, where I could possibly download an uptodate version of THE spreadsheet ( no- not yours, unfortunately you won`t give it to me - but the CSG...) ?

Furthermore have you ever seen an updated version of TVP5?

And last, but not least, any other free timing spreadsheets?

Thanks

Hittfeld

[/QUOTE]

Here is the link to TVP5 and ewmsg.zip (messages):

http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/holygrailsm/files/Timing Systems/

Regards

Hittfeld