Mad Cows Trading Journal: EURUSD

[StupidCow]

EURUSD
Long
4363
4347
4377 (Manual - adjusted lower)

I will now consider a Short reversal of this trade should it get Stopped out at 4347. But, for now it stands.

 

[StupidCow]

Probability now 78%.

 

[StupidCow]

Larger Bearish harmonic point C still holding, so that continues to allow its point D to realize a minimum of 61.8 of its XA, which is still around the 4377 level.

 

[StupidCow]

Larger Bearish harmonic has been invalidated at its point C, with a push lower to 4349 at 17:01 GMT.

This is now a hourly fade of the previous hours downward move. However, a smaller Bearish harmonic is now taking shape: X = 4364, A = 4349, B = 4362 and C sits currently at 4353.

Probability now 81%. But, again, the market continually throws these smaller Bearish harmonics in the way.

 

[StupidCow]

Smaller Bearish harmonic point C is now be reset to 4348.

(C resets lower)

 

[StupidCow]

Probability drops to 72%.

 

[StupidCow]

Long Signal is rapidly decaying.

 

[StupidCow]

Smaller harmonic has no change into a shallow AB=CD pattern pushing price lower.

 

[StupidCow]

EURUSD
Long
-16

Did not reverse into Short.

 

[StupidCow]

-47% of daily total.

Scanning for next Trade Signal....

 

[StupidCow]

Smaller harmonics were too many in number to overcome. Pretty much a gang tackle. Sometimes smaller harmonics come out of nowhere like that when the market starts to compress at the wrong time. Turns into a knife fight in a phone booth when that happens. Most of the time I get my way, but not on that round.

 

[StupidCow]

Five (5) more hours of trading left. Down approximately 18 pips on the day.

 

[StupidCow]

Bearish Harmonic forming: X = 4362, A = 4340, B = 4350, C = 4341 and D is currently 4351 at 50% of XA and 88.6% of BC.

 

[StupidCow]

Point D, typically releases faster than this on smaller harmonics, so I'm going to assume that there will be a point D that is higher than 50% of XA. XA range is only 21 pips, so D needs to reach a significant level before I risk an entry Short.

 

[StupidCow]

EURUSD
Long
4354
XXXX
XXXX

 

[StupidCow]

D now 88.6% of XA.

 

[StupidCow]

Maybe I'll get a double move here if D behaves itself.

 

[StupidCow]

EURUSD
Long
4354
4347 (Revisable)
4368 (Initial target. Revisable)

 

[StupidCow]

If this is a double-top D near the 88.6% of XA, then a hard spike down could be the result shortly.

 

[StupidCow]

BTW - I'm using the 1 minute chart for the harmonic stuff, so that's why my legs are rather tight. I user the smaller time-frames to get in a bit early on the larger moves. Of course, the also equates to more volatility, tighter stops and more frequent trades.