Good Morning All,
...The pattern suggests dollar strength to .4800.
I didn't mean in 1 day. Jeez Louise.
Working with a trader from Singapore in the Trader Success Program, we were looking at possibilities for a strategy he is interested in developing. Well a set-up happened with his parameters so I took a long entry while we were trading together. Way too high but just as an example.
That entry failed but I was confident in the support levels I had 50 pips lower so we had a little fun and I just averaged into the remaining weakness. Picked the last one up at 4725A. I set targets to close each at the previous entry and I chickened out on the last target today so I took +45 for the trade.
One of the ideas I was trying to convey while we were getting long into the selling were:
Never trade with money you can't afford to lose. The money cannot be important. I find that if I make the money at all important, it gets in the way of my trading and I lose money. We had fun getting long into pretty strong selling because
a) I have confidence in a well defined method with a proven track record.
b) The money risked didn't matter and I had logical s/l levels defined so I knew the probabilities were high that it wouldn't get out of hand.
If I was focused on the money risked or on the anticipated profit as something I needed to pay my rent or something else, I may have had a very difficult time entering and may not have made 45 pips on this trade. Sure there are very experienced and disciplined traders who have worked through the psychological and emotional issues of trading with necessary money, but I just find it easier to earn a living with money that is not important.
I suggest to my students..."Fear of losing money will most likely cause you to lose money"...If you make the money the focus...and it becomes the least bit important...you increase the odds that you will lose the money. If the money doesn't matter and you have your risk defined, are entirely willing to lose what you risk, and are not asking anything from the market...you increase the odds greatly in your favor of getting stinking rich - trade by trade.
This 'focus on the money instead of the trade' malady can pop up at any time and cause problems. (hence the chickening out of the last target - which by the way - was subsequently hit).The money all of a sudden became important and I made less than I could have.
This 'money not important' idea - a very helpful one for me - is a goal I recommend traders in the program set for themselves...on the way to our goal we will fall short of our chosen ideal time and time again....making progress towards the goal as we go. Trading is very much a journey of self-discovery and overcoming weaknesses not so much in our trading method...but in ourselves.
Everyone is eligible for a backslide even periods of backslipping. But if we keep the goal in sight, trade with money we can afford to lose, and don't expect anything from the market in return, we get a little closer to it with each trade.
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So are we going to have a 1.4800 - 1.5150 range in EURUSD for the forseeable future? I think it's a decent possibility.
I have a very difficult time believing that correcting the excess in the market now is something the powers that be want to happen. After all that effort and expense to generate momentum, to risk derailing the consumer during the biggest consumer event of the year would kinda be like shooting oneself in the foot don't you think?
The market may want to correct, but I think they may wait on that one.
So let's look for the range to continue here let's say 1.4800 - 1.5150...lower bound 4750.
most likely to 
