trendie said:
Thirteen described SB as gambling. I have to disagree. Gambling is a state of mind. Trading without a plan, or logic to the trades.
( bear in mind, there are "preofessional" gamblers, who consistently win money. This is because they have a plan, understand the probabilities, and know when to fold when the odds are against them )
I see where you're coming from and there is some truth in what this.
However, I must say I tend to agree that SB is gambling. After all the clue is in the name! Why dont they call it Spread Trading? Because you're not trading you are Betting (gambling)
For those who dont know the difference here it is:
When I enter a trade it may not work in my favour. However, I have the opportunity to get out of that trade with a small profit or a small loss as soon as this condition registers. The SB doesn't have this opportunity. He has already thrown his money down the loo as soon as he pulled the chain (err I mean pulled the trigger). So the trader has the ability to manage his trade and his money according to the prevailing market conditions. He can react accordingly. The SB cant. He has already thrown his ego into the pit of wolves.
Any profitable trader will tell you one thing. He doesn't know what the next tick will be, let alone where price will be in 5 minutes or 5 days. BUT he does have an edge that tells him there is a probability of something happening to his favour. If that edge doesn't plan out then he can go on a damage limitation exercise. The SB doesn't have this luxury. He gambles on market direction. He also has a massive spread to contend with that puts him behind even more.
So, in short, the trader trades an edge. The spreadbetter takes a gamble on market direction. MASSIVE difference.
I only know of one person on these boards (he rarely posts these days - a great shame) who I actually believe makes money spread betting. I believe him because he used to be a market maker for 18 years in the City and has kept in touch with his mates. Therefore, when they have a market moving order on their books, he knows about it and takes his bet accordingly. Therefore, as a ex-market maker he actually understands trading and what edge is. He makes sure he has the edge over the spread betting shop. I'm afraid all others - unless they can explain their edge, and claims to make a living from SB I simply do not believe and I write them off as an ego that should be ignored at all costs. Think about it - all knowledgeable people know as soon as people start becoming consistently profitable at SB, then the SB company starts widening the spread and insisting you call in orders etc - in other words increasing the edge in their favour.
Do you ever hear Warren Buffet, George Soros, Paul Tudor Jones or any of the other greats talking about SB? Get real!