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Position is about 4 pips in profit but too long in trade. Moved stop to 99.79 to reduce risk. Just wait and see for now.

Peter
 
short UJ 99.70 stop 99.85
target 99.50

Failed to breakout over 100.00 2 days in a row. Looking for a sell off now as traders get worried it may not reach the number.

Peter

Daily chart shown.
Here's the drop I was expecting, although most of the sell off occurred during the last 2 hours of trading today. My timing was off. There's some support at 98.50, but there's a good chance it will drop to 97.80 to fill this week's opening gap. Sunday open should be interesting.

Peter
 

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Daily chart shown.
Here's the drop I was expecting, although most of the sell off occurred during the last 2 hours of trading today. My timing was off. There's some support at 98.50, but there's a good chance it will drop to 97.80 to fill this week's opening gap. Sunday open should be interesting.

Peter

nice analysis wacky,hope you made a few quid
 
Just in case I develop a reputation for providing red hot signals (doh!) my rationale for going long gbpjpy was that it had breached the 49 ema to the upside after a downward trend (trading the 15 minute chart) and tested it, apparently finding support. As with all these potential trend reversal setups, they are also possibly pullbacks before continuation so I assume that risk on entry. It's still live and although 45 pips in the hole at the moment appears again to have tested and found support on the ema. Given how the other gbp pairs reacted to the news releases at 09:30 I'm pleased my stop wasn't more closely approached on this pair. It may still turn out to have been merely a pullback before continuation (of downward trend), but if not, I'll have got into the reversal reasonably early. The trick then will be to stick with my target and not get wobbly and move my stop up too close.

I appreciate the price isn't really 'finding support' or reacting with the ema or anything else and it's purely my own, and probably quite idiosyncratic modelling of the price action. But if the price appears to react and perform in certain ways on a frequent basis, sufficiently so for it to register consciously, then surely it's valid to utlise that behaviour as if it really is reacting and responding as I so simplistically suggest.
 
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