Live & Die by the sword....

[trendie]

right... slight change of plan over the weekend..

did some tick by tick backtesting of random entry on cable.. over the course of well over 1,000 trades, it only resulted in about 6,000 points BEFORE any transaction costs.. eg, with 3-4 pips spread, its looking like 3 pips per trade, which if you include slippage on stops during announcements etc, means that it is a bit of a no go..

am currently investigating automating my other fx strategies with fxengines. found a couple of decent breakout strats that average 100 pts per month after costs, so i might go down that route.

im afraid the coin-experiment will have to be abandoned at this juncture.

hope you all had a good weekend.

FC

FC,

are you saying the trades posted were an anomoly ?
and, over the long-term, would have been break-even at best, or at least, have no edge ?

 

[FetteredChinos]

yup trendie, thats the one..

from what i have seen, i think we may have just been going through a good patch lately..

if you can trade with 1-pip spreads on globex futures, then it is a possibility, and you would have an edge of approx 5pips per trade, which is better than an awful lot of methods out there, especially for one that trades several times a day..

i trust the fxengines backtesting as they have about 15GB worth of tick data for each of the currency pairs..

i advise having a look at it..

eg, most simple breakout strategies on the longer timescales can yield approx 100 pts per month (5 per day average) with a lot less hassle..

plus they are automated..

am currently "forward testing" the 2 engines i have come up with over the weekend, and will post a summary report in a few weeks time, when they have had enough time to perform a few trades...

have you looked at them before?

 

[ChowClown]

eh-yup fc, have to say my attention has veered more towards fxengines again, now the live platform has been launched. I've attached a snap of the performance of some of my 'engines' this month so far, which when trading with the prevailing trend, work well. For those unfamiliar with fxengines, this summary is for engines that trade in one direction only (ie long or short), so the report shows the result of engines trading trend and counter-trend. If both long and short versions of each engine were left open to trade for a longer timeframe, the performance would be pants!

Do you have a long and short version of the same engine under forward test, or are you using a different approach? I'm working on defining a consistently reliable trend indicator for each engine, but so far haven't found one that significantly improves the stats....any thoughts on that one?

gl with the testing
Si

 

[trendie]

yup trendie, thats the one..

from what i have seen, i think we may have just been going through a good patch lately..

damn.

anyone interested in buying 2 pallet-loads of Cillit-Bang ?
All sensible offers considered.


PS: It was fun while it lasted, FC.

 

[FetteredChinos]

yup chow, ive got exactly the same parameters running for both long and short trades, pm me with your current email, and i'll send you the settings..

both long and short net a profit since jan 2003, (impressive considering the bull run) longs +3500 shorts +200 or so (!)

running both concurrently and forgetting about them might well be the best way to approach things!

as for a decent trend indicator..

try using RSI on a daily time frame (>50 bullish, <50 bearish) and then use a lower timeframe for your entries consistent with the daily trend..

ive done 80 tests so far today, and havent found an improvement on the RSI (incidentally, EMA's , WMA's, Stochs are all inferior to the daily RSI... interesting)

FC

 

[Windlesham1]

Have you thought of using http://www.freecycle.org ???

 

[FetteredChinos]

damn.

anyone interested in buying 2 pallet-loads of Cillit-Bang ?
All sensible offers considered.


PS: It was fun while it lasted, FC.

my offer will be 2 pence.. one careful owner :cheesy:

 

[ChowClown]

thanks FC, i'll batter RSI about abit. pm on it's way.

 

[bmittal]

Hey FC,

I have read your posts and have also heard from others that spreadbetting shouldn't be done for intraday trades... I really can't understand why..... could you explain a bit please?

Your help is greatly appreciated!

Kind regards....

 

[FetteredChinos]

Hey FC,

I have read your posts and have also heard from others that spreadbetting shouldn't be done for intraday trades... I really can't understand why..... could you explain a bit please?

Your help is greatly appreciated!

Kind regards....

because, quite simply, the cost of doing business is too great..

when trading intraday via a mechanical/orderly method, it is hard to find anything that generates more than 10-15 points per trade..

now, if you factor in 5 points for spreads and also slippage (dodgy entry) , then you dont have too much margin for error if your system is going through a lean patch.

if you trade inter-day (1-5 days) then you are looking for bigger swings in prices, and spreads are less of a factor, percentage wise.


eg 5 points on an average trade of 100 points is largely insignificant, as opposed to 5 points on an average trade of 15 points.

if you can trade using direct access with 1point (or less) spread, then you can see how much of a difference it can make to your bottom line.

hope this helps, if you need anythign else, then shout.

fc

 

[bmittal]

Cheers FC.... I get it.... the precentage of the average profit per trade taken by the spread is greater doing very short term tardes as compared to swing trading.....

With what broker can you get a spread of 1pip or less (in the FX of course )? My SB bookie currently gives me 3 pips. However, I want to move on because of the conflict of interest that exists between a bookie and his clients - it makes me uncomfortable to think that any money I lose is his profit and vice versa!

Thanks for your continued help!

Kind regards..........

 

[FetteredChinos]

you can trade globex futures on Interactive Brokers (if im not mistaken).

you get a 1pip sprad on the Eur/USD

on spot fx, Oanda is pretty good with a 1.5 spread

others might be able to recommend others..

 

[bmittal]

Yes.... I think IB is the best bet for me.... as I trade oil as well. I maybe should also try Oanda... heard good things about it... However, I still have to get my head around IBs trading platform....

If you go direct access... by how much does the spread increase during times such as NFP and other 'major' events?

Thanks again....

 

[FetteredChinos]

i wouldnt be able to say, as i dont trade direct access myself...

bucket shops fx through fxcm and spreadbet via deal4free and capitalspreads..

 

[JillyB]

FC

What's happened? No posts today and only one yesterday - have you given up on the new system already?

I know , I know - you're yearning for the old day - life just isn't the same without the Cillit Bang coin.

Are you currently long on cable? It's broken support at 1.7329 this afternoon and doesn't seem to be bouncing up much from its recent fall. What's your take on this?

 

[FetteredChinos]

lol glad you are still taking an interest..

no positions whatsoever at all at the moment. im currently working on a few fx automated strategies still.

forward testings has had a couple of trades triggered.. 2 losses, one win (currently +200 on cable short)

im stil toying with ideas, and basic patterns with the aim of going down the full automation route...


just gotta find something robust enough...

 

[JillyB]

Just set sell trades on the Dow - time to sit back and wait for them to be triggered. I think we will see 10,650 again before it heads south. (Well I hope we will now!)

As for cable, the only way I've been trading it today with the candles - nice doji on the top bollinger at 3pm and oops!!! look what happened afterwards. :cheesy: I'm a happy bunny. And since it's my birthday on Friday - I think I will treat myself - I know a nice pair of Jimmy Choos, with my name on them.

On holiday tomorrow and Friday, but will try and look into the site to see what's happening. Let us all know how the testing is going FC - can't wait for the unveiling of the new system.

 

[FetteredChinos]

well, one of the systems, which i wont disclose yet has midblowingly accurate stats, but then it needs to be as it is going for a Larry Williams style 30pip target with a 200 pip stop loss..

and despite that R/R ratio, it is a bit of a corker over the last 30 months...

 

[Texas_Hedge]

well, one of the systems, which i wont disclose yet has midblowingly accurate stats, but then it needs to be as it is going for a Larry Williams style 30pip target with a 200 pip stop loss..

and despite that R/R ratio, it is a bit of a corker over the last 30 months...

There is a lot to be said for a 200 pip Stop. As a lot of my early trading at the start of my thread used a similar stop distance and was probably more, but no less succesful, than using tighter stops.

Keep us informed on progress FC

Peter

 

[FetteredChinos]

well, overall on 250 trades it has a win rate >90%.

its a simple breakout, retrace, then retest of a prior high/low..on 4 hourly charts..

1st trade triggered today for +30