Live & Die by the sword....

[trendie]

FC, ( hope you dont this question on this thread )

re: Jenkins, Geometry of Stock Market Profits. ( GSMP )

are you ignoring the first 30 minutes of the Dow when doing any calculations etc, ?
( he recommends using 1-hr bars, and using a 6-hr day ).
also, are you ignoring 6-hrs for Sat and Sun ?

PS: I think the 8,13 and 21 hr Fib counts are a bit pants. ( I cant find any real patterns, unless I squint until my eyes are closed )

 

[FetteredChinos]

thanks dan.. are you basing it on my results so far? ive got a spreadsheet up and running that im going to upload at stumps tonight..

i think ive ballsed up the number of trades so far, as i appear to have about 38 at the moment.. looks like ive missed a couple, or couldnt add up on here.. total points is correct though!

FC

 

[danfreek]

Looks like I must have missed a few trades too then I've only got 35 completed trades! I just went through the thread writing down the entry and exit for each trade. I'll have to compare my data to yours. I've got you at total profit of +311 so far excluding your open trade. Is that right?

 

[FetteredChinos]

Trendie, as for ignoring the first half hour/combining it with the next hour, im not so convinced by this.

I know tom houggard spent months tidying up his data so he could have just the 6 hour day. im not sure what benefit this really has, with the Dow futures being largely a 24 hour market anyway.

as for fib counts, you need to find a confluence of fib points. (easier to see and calculate on daily data)

eg, draw up a list of recent highs and lows and their dates in excel

then add fib numbers to each of these dates.

see if you get a confluence of dates which point to a change in momentum. this is where you are likely to get a turn.

also bear in mind the big Gann cycles (not mentioned in Jenkins if i recall) from recent tops..

eg, major divisions of 360.

so you could be looking at a turn 180,90,45,22.5 days/weeks/months since a major high/low

used in isolation, they arent all that reliable, but when you see a cluster of turn dates close together then you could be in business.

fc

 

[FetteredChinos]

Looks like I must have missed a few trades too then I've only got 35 completed trades! I just went through the thread writing down the entry and exit for each trade. I'll have to compare my data to yours. I've got you at total profit of +311 so far excluding your open trade. Is that right?

ive got +331 from 38 closed trades as far as i can see.

ive gone back and checked against my trading platform, and that seems to match.

either way, the missing trades are pretty consistent with the current hit rate..


stop moved to 1.7553 now, locking in +59.

FC

 

[FetteredChinos]

oh my god this is brilliant!

Bob Carolgees now runs a candle-shop...

the world truly is an hilarious place...

http://www.carolgeescandles.com/

 

[Texas_Hedge]

I bet you have made a right stack, Today..... FC

 

[FetteredChinos]

lol yup.. locked in +73 and still trailing.. been a corking week actually..

approx +200 or so.

you dont seem to have done too badly either..?

 

[The Baptist]

I believe I have see signs of USD weakness again, so:

USD SWiss at 1.2859 - stop 1.2932
Long Aus USD at 0.7529 - stop 0.7468 - really like this trade pendant on hourly chart

Also went short GBP Yen at 197.09 - stop 197.76
and Short Ftse at 5244 - I am touch cautious on this, given FTSE strength of late - Stop 5285

stopped and reversed on first two trades (Loss -73) Swiss USD 1.2932 - stop 1.2847
Ausd 0.7506 stop 0.7535 (Loss -23)

other two daring better currently 196.55 (+54 pts) - Ftse 5229 (+7)

 

[Texas_Hedge]

lol yup.. locked in +73 and still trailing.. been a corking week actually..

approx +200 or so.

you dont seem to have done too badly either..?

This week

XXX Gain
XXX Loss

 

[FetteredChinos]

This week

536 Gain
185 Loss

damn you.. you're outperforming my coin..

im going to have to trade the other pairs at this rate to keep up with you lol


seriously though.. well done mate. im pretty impressed..

you seem to be fading the edge of channels? certainly has seemed that way on a few trades.

 

[Texas_Hedge]

Im going to be doing the opposite from today.

Single instruments only. For size

 

[FetteredChinos]

stopped out at 1.7548 for +64 total of +73 for the day


good weekend coming up

i make that +395 from 39 trades..

i'll attach the spreadsheet in a few mins.

FC

 

[mjward]

fettered just seen the spreadsheet, im in awe. I think I will be duplicating your trades next week! Where did you get the 3 point spread trades from? I've been using cantorindex and when long on sept ftse on monday at £9 a point, yesterday got up to 350 but didnt cash in foolishly. My stop loss kicked in at 5220 and Im now down £250 for the week

 

[FetteredChinos]

3 points is the spread on CapitalSpreads trading platform. Oanda has 1.5 on Eur/USD

others are similar as well.

no point paying extra costs unnecessarily.

on another note, please dont duplicate my trades exactly.

if you want, do your own random entries, and just manage the position from there with a trailing stop.

the sample size is getting pretty sizeable.. another 2 weeks of this should convince people that exit is the most important thing.

however, you can improve your chances of getting a favourable exit by improving the entry, but that might be the subject of another month's testing....

have a good weekend, all

FC

 

[neil]

Mr Happy

Great work FC. I too have been having a better day albeit my stops tend to be tighter due to the set ups I use. It's interesting how two people have different aproaches to a trade yet both end in profit. Good weekend all.

 

[FetteredChinos]

right... slight change of plan over the weekend..

did some tick by tick backtesting of random entry on cable.. over the course of well over 1,000 trades, it only resulted in about 6,000 points BEFORE any transaction costs.. eg, with 3-4 pips spread, its looking like 3 pips per trade, which if you include slippage on stops during announcements etc, means that it is a bit of a no go..

am currently investigating automating my other fx strategies with fxengines. found a couple of decent breakout strats that average 100 pts per month after costs, so i might go down that route.

im afraid the coin-experiment will have to be abandoned at this juncture.

hope you all had a good weekend.

FC

 

[JillyB]

am currently investigating automating my other fx strategies with fxengines. found a couple of decent breakout strats that average 100 pts per month after costs, so i might go down that route.

When you say automated - exactly what do you mean? Writing a program that will execute the trades for you? or something easier than that?

 

[FetteredChinos]

something a lot easer than that.

have a look at www.fxengines.com

dont bother with using indicator based entries, just focus on the breakouts.

the only problem is that they "charge" 1 pip per trade currently, which means you are trading cable at an effective 5 pip spread..

hence you have to go for longer term swing trades, rather than intraday scalps.

 

[FetteredChinos]

here is an example backtest report, its pretty thorough


ENGINE NAME: TURTLES LONG
SUMMARY: This engine had a net performance of 3048 pips with a 41% success rate. Had all trades been exited at the high, the engine would have been worth 19761 pips. However, an average of 86.15 pips per trade were "given back" from the high to the point where you exited. The maximum drawdown for this engine was 812 pips, with 10 losing trades during the worst losing streak and 7 winners during the best winning streak.

loads more stats as well, the only thing lacking is an automatic equity curve generator.

FC