Live & Die by the sword....

[trendie]

me too. LN from '84. ( bounce off S-1 ). my stop-loss is below 1.7317. ( S-2 ).
have no idea when to get out.

 

[Windlesham1]

FC -Cilit Bang has enhanced my life in many ways,but cable? That's a bonus......................Bang!

 

[JillyB]

Hi FC

System just generated signal for GBP/USD at 12.10pm

Long at 1.7344/47
Stop at 1.7332
Aiming for 1.7358

 

[trendie]

excellent, Jilly.

you appear to have picked the reversal. its been sliding all morning.
bit concerned about your risk to reward: risk=15, reward=11.
you must have a high expectancy ?

 

[JillyB]

I agree - this is a very small movement. However what I posted is the stop and exit points that the system I'm testing has generated, so I'm just trying to be honest about it. If it was me, I would be looking for more reward - and as the trade progresses the system may give that - I will have to wait and see.

In following the rules of the system I have just moved the stop up to 1.7339.

 

[danfreek]

Jilly, I'm trying to follow your method on prorealtime, I've got the bollinger bands and price set up as explained in this thread, but I don't seem to get a signal at 12:10, also it seems to wipsaw alot around the bolinger band, clearly I have set up the indicators wrong, could you post a chart of the trade for us all to see the setup?

FC, hows it working out today?

Thank you

Dan

 

[JillyB]

Hi Dan

Attached is the CMC screen capture of when the trade was placed.

10 minute chart
The price is (H+L+O+C) /4
The inner bollinger is set to MA 9, standard deviation of 1.85, method - simple, applied to H+L+O+C.

The outer bollinger is set to MA 11, standard deviation of 2.5, method - simple, applied to close.

Hope this helps.

Ps trade closed at for +14 points

 

[FetteredChinos]

right... stopped out for -45 boo hoo..

long again from 1.7349..

last trade of the day as fridays are too quiet....

 

[danfreek]

Cheers Jilly, that's very clear now. It's a very interesting set up.

The only thing I'm still confused about is why you didn't go in at 11:00 and just after 11:30 when the black line crosses up through the bollinger band?

 

[FetteredChinos]

nice work Jilly.. lots of food for thought there..

hows the backtesting coming along?

fc

 

[JillyB]

I've now completed the five years backtesting and emailed it to Chump, who is going to look through it with an unbiased eye.

On the face of it, it appears quite promising. The system seems to generate between 3,000 and 3,500 points a year, with a rate of between 66% and 75% winning trades. But whether this will hold up under scrutiny I will have to wait and see.

 

[FetteredChinos]

i'll try to code this up over the weekend to see if it matches Jilly..

would you mind summarising the entry/exit rules in one place and complete?

i can do a longer test if need be..

fc

 

[JillyB]

Cheers Jilly, that's very clear now. It's a very interesting set up.

The only thing I'm still confused about is why you didn't go in at 11:00 and just after 11:30 when the black line crosses up through the bollinger band?

Only because I was out of the office - but in theory I could have done and these would have been losing trades which got stopped out. As I say the system isn't the holy grail and initially I was looking at the Dow end of day - which is what all the backtesting has been done on. It may be that the settings need to be tweaked slightly to suit the conditions of the FX market. It's all work in progress, but interesting. :cheesy:

 

[danfreek]

That's as good an explaination as any! I wan't expecting a holy grail, I came to terms with the fact that they don't exist long ago, I just assumed that you had filtered the trades out somehow since you hadn't mentioned them.

As I said before, it's a very interesting setup, I'll do a bit of investigation myself and see what I find.

 

[FetteredChinos]

spiked out at 1.7390 for +41

short from 1.7401 now.. (couldnt resist a cheeky one.)

couple of hours til it dies.. might get some decent points before then..

fc

 

[FetteredChinos]

going well so far

i really do think 50 pips is too wide a trail for intraday. might be ok on overnight positions, but i seem to give up too much.. its rare for a move to hit +100 then keep going, which is what i would need to balance out the -30s, 40s and 50s that happen..

next week its a 40 pip trail.

 

[G-Man]

going well so far

i really do think 50 pips is too wide a trail for intraday. might be ok on overnight positions, but i seem to give up too much.. its rare for a move to hit +100 then keep going, which is what i would need to balance out the -30s, 40s and 50s that happen..

next week its a 40 pip trail.

Have you thought about adding a profit target to your trades, FC?

As you say, there are not that many days where the price moves 200 pips in one direction. Adding in a 100 or 120 pip limit in addition to your 40 pip trailing stop would give you a risk reward of at least 2.5:1. Get the win % right and you are on a roll.

Incidentally, how much are you trading on this, if you would be so kind as to tell us?

G-Man

 

[FetteredChinos]

£5 a point which isnt too subtantial.. wont make me rich, or poor

ive thought about profit targets.. perhaps 150 points (1 daily ATR from a recent swing high/low)

but then if my profit limit gets hit, what happens if i then get another signal in the same direction? where would i exit then?

im thinking of divergance-based exits, as they are usually indicative or a 20-30 pip retrace at least...

that might be a better, more dynamic exit...

pain in the arris to backtest though. coding RSI decently into excel is no easy task...

 

[mofo]

Hi Guys

Whats going on round here then ?

I go on holiday, come back to find the ftse strategy has been replaced by coin tossing & forex

 

[FetteredChinos]

Welcome to the Chinos Experimental Station...

i hope you enjoy your stay...