Best Thread Live Cable Trading

[jezza888]

Volume

Curiosity etching away at me....

Foreign exchange has no global exchange and therefore no accurate volume can be measured.

This chart from Metatrader4 using Interbank feed shows volume.

Both the break to new highs and NFP show surges in volume.

Where does it come from? Is it a relation to 'Interbanks' volumes alone? Is it meaningless and just rises because, obviously, volume would increase around these times? If it is completely meaningless, why do they have it?

Can something really be derived from one feeds volume analysis alone or should it be plunged into the depths and forgotten forever?

 

[Mr.Black]

Nice setup from last week If one have patience to wait
And 30 min Time frame

 

[marmoset]

Tweaked rules backtesting on May 2nd

Unfortunately the chart is incomplete (furthest out 5min chart I could find)

 

[marmoset]

Volume

Curiosity etching away at me....

Foreign exchange has no global exchange and therefore no accurate volume can be measured.

This chart from Metatrader4 using Interbank feed shows volume.

Both the break to new highs and NFP show surges in volume.

Where does it come from? Is it a relation to 'Interbanks' volumes alone? Is it meaningless and just rises because, obviously, volume would increase around these times? If it is completely meaningless, why do they have it?

Can something really be derived from one feeds volume analysis alone or should it be plunged into the depths and forgotten forever?

Hi Jezza,

Yeah, somewhere they're getting this 1.6 trillion $ volume/day from, but from where, especially since there's no obligation to report it... :|

I use the volume as a warning signal, albeit *very* rarely.
The warning: spikes in price during low volume = no liquidity, meaning some mammoth is stop hunting.

NFP and other volume spikes occur around (obviously) major news and fixing times, when ECNs and corporates exchange their positions for the needed currency out of the pair.

As for the breaks to new heights: limits being filled, (too weak) resistance: stops being trampled causing traders to reverse positions in a frenzy, short covering and people in general fearing the gravy train will leave without them. :cheesy: Result: retail brokers' servers grinding to a smoking standstill, gaps etc.

I have noted down or saved the fixing times in a file somewhere, but never got around to properly correlating it to price action... so my above statement is still merely a hunch.

Off to search for the file... oh, and have a look at the volumes of course Curious how your figs correspond to what my broker reports.

 

[marmoset]

(snip)

The next shoe to drop in the dollar will be next week's US Treasury report on International Economics and Foreign Exchange. The report is a lose-lose situation for the dollar regardless of whether the US Treasury names China as a currency manipulator. The reasons are the following:

We now expect the Treasury to label China as a manipulator after the US succeeded in obtaining the backing of the 7 in singling out China in the usually generic sounding G7 FX communiqué, urging it to allow " greater flexibility in exchange rates … critical to allow necessary appreciations". (/snip)

Hi Rav,

Checked around (here for example http://www.forexfactory.com/index.php?page=calendar&week=1147046400&month=5&timezoneoffset= )

There's a hitch: Treasury has not specified what the exact date or time of the release will be next week... Figure we're in to see an unexpected (aren't they all) jump in volatility during NY session...

 

[marmoset]

Tweaked rules backtesting on May 3rd chart

Same new game rules (see post #5920) laid out on ALL of May 3rd (including Tokyo and Big Ben),
to see how it fares if it were an automated system... Not too hot, did better IRL...

OK, new game rules for London and early NY only. Tokyo and Big Ben are MINE, ALL MINE!! Muahahaha

Oops, lost my marbles again. Time to get some fresh air!

 

[rav700]

Thoughts for monday....

So That the weekend over...back to trading
My thought for the cable are pretty bullish.....
I expect a little correction but only till 1.8555 and then I can see us hitting the attempt and proper break for the 1.8600 mark.....so hence here are the trades in view:

Order Number 1: Sell order@ 1.8585 stop @ 1.8605 Limit @ 1.8555
Order Number 2: Buy order@ 1.8595 stop @ 1.8580 Limit @1.6525(scalping tip)
I think it will range for most of the day

Happy Trading

 

[marmoset]

Last backtesting (I swear): 24-25Apr06

24th, rules only:
6 closes: 210pips
4 s/l hit: 120pips
net: +90 pips

First half of 25th (fwiw):
5 closes: 175pips
6 s/l hit: 180 pips (never wise to go long at the start of the Tokyo session, goes against experience)
net: -5 pips

All in favour of new rules, raise your hands and say "Aye"!
"Aye"!
New rules adopted by a majority of one!

Now on to implement S/R pivot levels... Will take a while (let's say a week staring at the screen) :|

 

[marmoset]

OK, Tokyo's open

Went short .2 at 8604, no stop, no limit, waiting out the 1-2a.m. Tokyo low. (reduce open positions entry)

As nobody's posted in the meantime, I'm adding to it (mammoth thread already):
.1 short entry limit at 8644, limit 09 stop 74 (new rule)

Adding pivot levels:
R3 8808
R2 8716
R1 8662
P 8565
S1 8514
S2 8418
S3 8364
so my .1 short entry is 18 pips below R1 (scribbling note on journal)

 

[rav700]

OK, Tokyo's open

Went short .2 at 8604, no stop, no limit, waiting out the 1-2a.m. Tokyo low. (reduce open positions entry)

As nobody's posted in the meantime, I'm adding to it (mammoth thread already):
.1 short entry limit at 8644, limit 09 stop 74 (new rule)

I got in 3 shorts 8614 8617 and 8630

Let see how it goes on

 

[marmoset]

I got in 3 shorts 8614 8617 and 8630

Let see how it goes on

Yep, we're witnessing the spike up at the open, still wondering what that is all about... Any ideas?
Anyway, the spike very rarely holds, hence I'm not worried about my naked .2 short.

PS click reload, I've added levels for today

 

[rav700]

Yep, we're witnessing the spike up at the open, still wondering what that is all about... Any ideas?
Anyway, the spike very rarely holds, hence I'm not worried about my naked .2 short.

PS click reload, I've added levels for today

To be honest I did expect a spike but just ike yourself nothing like that I guess they are back from vacation.......

 

[marmoset]

To be honest I did expect a spike but just ike yourself nothing like that I guess they are back from vacation.......

Back from vacation... Now THERE's something I'd never have thought of (makes note in déja-vu file)

8644 just hit, let's see if R1 holds up

Added: 23:45 CET, frenzy seems to be over, entering comatose (hopefully downdrift) zone. :|

 

[rav700]

Back from vacation... Now THERE's something I'd never have thought of (makes note in déja-vu file)

8644 just hit, let's see if R1 holds up

Added: 23:45 CET, frenzy seems to be over, entering comatose (hopefully downdrift) zone. :|

Intresting.....I will let them cool down

 

[marmoset]

Been very bold here :-0

Cleaned out all shorts below 8000 with their safety hedges... Scraped off some barnacles, working on getting a clean slate to test new rules with. Screen looks much less cluttered now...

Current left-overs from "take no losses" days:
short .1 at 8238 (currently -385 pips)
short .1 at 8269 (currently -354 pips)
short .1 at 8344 (currently -279 pips)
short .2 at 8385 (currently -240 pips)
short .1 at 8452 (currently -174 pips)
short .1 at 8475 (currently -145 pips)
short .1 at 8494 (currently -126 pips)
total .8 short "short position" as in "position trading"

Strategy:
let .2 short ride down to low, close for additional margin.
hedge .8 by going long, add .2 long for additional margin up to Tokyo high.
If pre-Big Ben build-up evident, close .8 and .2, go long to BigBen starting point,
reverse, add .1 short for the ride down
close whatever positions can be closed with extras
reverse, hedge still open short position +.2 for London frenzy (expect it to be big)

Liquid nitrogen day ahead!

short .1 at 8644 closed at 8409: 35pips new rule
given that Tokyo low is around an hour away, no new position is added.
Aw, screw it, taking another .1 short down to pivot level, 8603 limit 8572 stop 8633, chalk it up to "Operation Barnacle".

 

[rav700]

Been very bold here :-0

Cleaned out all shorts below 8000 with their safety hedges... Scraped off some barnacles, working on getting a clean slate to test new rules with. Screen looks much less cluttered now...

Current left-overs from "take no losses" days:
short .1 at 8238 (currently -385 pips)
short .1 at 8269 (currently -354 pips)
short .1 at 8344 (currently -279 pips)
short .2 at 8385 (currently -240 pips)
short .1 at 8452 (currently -174 pips)
short .1 at 8475 (currently -145 pips)
short .1 at 8494 (currently -126 pips)
total .8 short "short position" as in "position trading"

Strategy:
let .2 short ride down to low, close for additional margin.
hedge .8 by going long, add .2 long for additional margin up to Tokyo high.
If pre-Big Ben build-up evident, close .8 and .2, go long to BigBen starting point,
reverse, add .1 short for the ride down
close whatever positions can be closed with extras
reverse, hedge still open short position +.2 for London frenzy (expect it to be big)

Liquid nitrogen day ahead!

short .1 at 8644 closed at 8409: 35pips new rule
given that Tokyo low is around an hour away, no new position is added.
Aw, screw it, taking another .1 short down to pivot level, 8603 limit 8572 stop 8633, chalk it up to "Operation Barnacle".

you must be one rich trader to have so many positions open....
I have made my 40pips for the night...
best of luck mate

 

[marmoset]

Hi Rav,

Not rich, just have enough left-overs from my stocks and currency option days (nary 20years ago) Oh, and hedging helps (nudge nudge wink wink)

Tokyo starting to look iffy, it's 8.26 there, looking to reverse positions

 

[rav700]

Hi Rav,

Not rich, just have enough left-overs from my stocks and currency option days (nary 20years ago) Oh, and hedging helps (nudge nudge wink wink)

Tokyo starting to look iffy, it's 8.26 there, looking to reverse positions

It looks like they are trying to make this a support level around 20's hmm..
Do you think it will still fall at this point..
I am thinking of opening a new position just aint sure it is the right time yet.....

 

[rav700]

It looks like they are trying to make this a support level around 20's hmm..
Do you think it will still fall at this point..
I am thinking of opening a new position just aint sure it is the right time yet.....

I am putting my short in now for a 10 pip scalp at least stop at 50

 

[marmoset]

It looks like they are trying to make this a support level around 20's hmm..
Do you think it will still fall at this point..
I am thinking of opening a new position just aint sure it is the right time yet.....

8600 being the support level (yep, the big figure). I'd short just below for a light bust through pivot 8568 (my short at limit 8572 being VERY aggressive there)