Best Thread Live Cable Trading

[smbtnt]

sell orders triggered at 8540 sl: 20 pips

 

[indexgold]

http://www.easy-forex.com/en/

Nice site for forex traders

 

[rav700]

sell orders triggered at 8540 sl: 20 pips

So has mine ........why is it so hard to trade cable today ..aghhh

 

[marmoset]

Well, whatever, dampened sine time....

short 8542 .1 filled, so I'll try to catch the downswing. Then I'll close the 3 longs on the upswing.
Tokyo open is usually associated with a 15 pip drop (anybody got an idea why, the days of GBP interest being bigger than USD have been over for quite a few months now, Japs used to jump on the free ride back then...)

:|

 

[rav700]

I am out at 5 pips profit..I have had enough for today

 

[marmoset]

Well trendie et alteri, the idea is HEDGING.

I've got a long breath. I'm limiting my daily losses with "no-touchie" hedges. Well, today I've violated that rule BIG TIME. My usable margin went down 10%...

I have deepred shorts around 7800, along with hedges that are so deep green I have to fight the temptation to cash in. If I close out all of them, I'd still have enough to keep going, but the idea is not to, as I'm in a currency pair with nary an interest diff., costing me hardly any rollover costs.
The volatility is excellent, plenty opportunities.

So deepreds and deepgreens become "positions", daily trading earns plenty to open and close new postions and have a safety cushion. The trend eventually turns around (figure 2011 is a realistic time horizon ) and it's jobbing all the way down again.

Not everybody's style, nothing wrong with that. I do my thing, hardest days are straight up days, because every bounce missed, every hurdle gap, every wrong "take off the red hedges" reduces available margin.

To play this method, you need liquid nitrogen for blood, no attachments (house/car payments, worrying partners etc.) and a commitment that makes "singleminded" sound wimpish.

I walk alone and keep telling everybody "kids, don't try this at home". :cheesy:

Hope my figs don't cause too much blood on the ground...

 

[jezza888]

Well trendie et alteri, the idea is HEDGING.

I've got a long breath. I'm limiting my daily losses with "no-touchie" hedges. Well, today I've violated that rule BIG TIME. My usable margin went down 10%...

I have deepred shorts around 7800, along with hedges that are so deep green I have to fight the temptation to cash in. If I close out all of them, I'd still have enough to keep going, but the idea is not to, as I'm in a currency pair with nary an interest diff., costing me hardly any rollover costs.
The volatility is excellent, plenty opportunities.

So deepreds and deepgreens become "positions", daily trading earns plenty to open and close new postions and have a safety cushion. The trend eventually turns around (figure 2011 is a realistic time horizon ) and it's jobbing all the way down again.

Not everybody's style, nothing wrong with that. I do my thing, hardest days are straight up days, because every bounce missed, every hurdle gap, every wrong "take off the red hedges" reduces available margin.

To play this method, you need liquid nitrogen for blood, no attachments (house/car payments, worrying partners etc.) and a commitment that makes "singleminded" sound wimpish.

I walk alone and keep telling everybody "kids, don't try this at home". :cheesy:

Hope my figs don't cause too much blood on the ground...

I'm still just trying to get my head around how you do it to be honest but it certainly seems to be working.... congrats to you, I like my simple methods and will be content with 50 ish pips on a daily average, I think I'd just get too confused myself, but very impressed with the amount of pips you pull in especially as you actually seem to be more concerned with hedging!

 

[trendie]

I'm still just trying to get my head around how you do it to be honest but it certainly seems to be working.... congrats to you, I like my simple methods and will be content with 50 ish pips on a daily average, I think I'd just get too confused myself, but very impressed with the amount of pips you pull in especially as you actually seem to be more concerned with hedging!

yes. we simple-folk prefer knowing which direction we are facing.
this hedging idea seems great. being able to place trades in the morning, and watch as 138 pips roll in requires a considerable understanding of either market behaviour, volatility plays and statistics. Or all.
but, be aware that the 138 collected is at the price of ( at the time I wrote my initial synopsis ) being 3 lots short in a rising market. ( this has changed to being net short by 1. 3 short, with 2 longs. this is clearly the clever bit of off-setting positions and reducng net exposure. )
Hope you have exit strategies when the market only goes in one direction. ( the cable has risen 1000 pips in past 3 weeks or so. )
thats the function I want to see dealt with.
keep posting, this is clearly fascinating.

 

[jezza888]

confused to hell

so, is this roughly what your looking at in the morning?

The blue dotted lines being limit orders and the red already open? The arrows being the direction of the limit orders?

 

[jezza888]

yes. we simple-folk prefer knowing which direction we are facing.
this hedging idea seems great. being able to place trades in the morning, and watch as 138 pips roll in requires a considerable understanding of either market behaviour, volatility plays and statistics. Or all.
but, be aware that the 138 collected is at the price of ( at the time I wrote my initial synopsis ) being 3 lots short in a rising market. ( this has changed to being net short by 1. 3 short, with 2 longs. this is clearly the clever bit of off-setting positions and reducng net exposure. )
Hope you have exit strategies when the market only goes in one direction. ( the cable has risen 1000 pips in past 3 weeks or so. )
thats the function I want to see dealt with.
keep posting, this is clearly fascinating.

That we certainly do......... :cheesy:

I had one short signal in the morning which pulled back to 5 and then the long which I just closed at 9 (CS close and I won't hold overnight).... saying that... on days when marmoset is in his element, I'm fortunate to breakeven!

Certainly is fascinating to watch though!

 

[hornblower]

this thread is an eye opener
I had not looked at things this way
please keep posting
hornblower

 

[rav700]

That we certainly do......... :cheesy:

I had one short signal in the morning which pulled back to 5 and then the long which I just closed at 9 (CS close and I won't hold overnight).... saying that... on days when marmoset is in his element, I'm fortunate to breakeven!

Certainly is fascinating to watch though!

I know what you mean
I have been consistent with making about 50- 60 pips a day but this guy is something else.....

Today's cable trading was stressful and I could not get in at the right times either...
Too frustrating..........

But well done marmoset

 

[neil]

CME and FX.

Taken from CME website - for info. of anyone interested.

http://www.cme.com/trading/prd/fx/fxmarketspace.html


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Through the joint venture, CME and Reuters will pool their expertise in data dissemination, distribution, trade matching and central counterparty clearing services. FXMarketSpace will offer market solutions to capitalize on the growing demand for broader access to the FX market, the emergence of FX as an asset class, the growth of non-bank financial institutions in global FX markets and the growth of electronic and algorithmic trading.

For additional information, read the full Press Release,Q&A and Technology Overview below:


http://www.cme.com/about/press/cn/06-60AnonymousProject18424.html

 

[rav700]

Trades 4 tonight

I cant really sleep at this point as I am intrigued to see what happens:
The three potential trades I can see at this point are:
Buy at 1.8507 stop loss at 1.8495 and lmit @1.8545
and the reverse trade with a 15 point stop
Lets see what happens

I have placed both these orders in now
1:[email protected] SL 1.8485 and Limit @1.8540
2:[email protected] SL 1.8560 and [email protected]

 

[marmoset]

Whoa! Tokyo range is flat, i.e. 40pips... That has happened in front of every straight up-day since April 14, fwiw. (see April 27 and 28 in particular) Not a sign of a Big Ben building up...

I'm stretched a bit thin and won't have time today to call my broker to minimize damage from aforementioned potential lift-off... My "rake in the pips in the chop" strategy doesn't work all too well in straigh up-days, we're looking at a potential of 200-300 pip upswing (or down)

OK, since it's a "sit-on-the-sidelines" day, I'm taking out all long limits and keep my fingers crossed. All of yesterday's open order with their limits, also open shorts and limits stay in place though. Did a quick count, everything's hedged, figure I've battened down the hatches tight. Ready to ride out the storm (or it might fizzle and I'll be the laughing stock of this forum, but for the moment preservation of capital, aka self-preservation, is more important than my ego )

When I'm back home at 18.00GMT I'll assess the damage and take corrective measures.

Call me chicken if you like, but I've overslept (even though I crawled into bed early, sorry for not addressing above posts, will try during the day) and don't have time to come up with a workable solution at the moment.

Right, quick shower, shave and off to my befuddled 'puter klutz clients...

Gentlemen, start your engines! :cheesy:

 

[Chocolate]

Chocolate,

Japan is more predictable, usually starting out going down, then up (see earlier posts).
Very often the bounces occur around nearest resistance and support.

What was unusual last night is that it simply went down, very slowly. Might be holiday-related.

Thanks for the info and I sure will, but when a thread reaches 600 odd pages you know it'll take more than a quiet moment to take a look at it!! A quiet month more like it... But keep up the great posts everyone - one day, I hope, I will trade sterling.

 

[trendie]

Update:

s .1 8452 lim 8412 closed for +40
s .1 8430 lim 8404 closed for +26
b .1 8355 lim 8398 closed for +43
s .1 8344 lim 8312 open
s .1 8494 lim 8425 open
b .1 8375 lim 8404 cancelled as not triggered
b .1 8252 lim 8296 closed for +29
b .1 8175 lm 8330 safety net long
s .1 8595 lim 8550 cancelled as not triggered
b .1 8305 lim 8396 cancelled as not triggered
s .1 8475 lim 8410 open
b .1 8215 lim 8275 cancelled as not triggered
b .1 8540 lim 8595 NEW open
s .1 8542 lim 8504 Overnight closed for +38.
b .1 8510 lim 8548 NEW open

01: May-04 resulted in 138 pips won.
02: Overnight action May04/05: 38 pips won. ( running total=176 )
03: net exposure: 3 short, 2 long. net 1 short.
04: as per recent post, limits from longs removed. (awaiting action plan)

EDIT: need clarification:if new entry not triggered, then the trade should be cancelled, as they are based on pivots. and a new day renders obselete previous days pivots/entries. I shall assume the above to be correct unless advised.

EDIT2: the "neutral point" of the 5 positions is 8472.60. closing all current open positions at this price results in 0, and thus securing the gains so far. profits below this price.

EDIT3: what am I, stupid? forget edit2 above.
based on 8500 as notional position:
5 positions open:
sh; 8344, - 156
sh; 8494, -6
sh; 8475, -25
ln; 8540, -40
ln; 8510, -10.
net exposure = -237.

 

[a_gnome]

Update:

EDIT3: what am I, stupid? forget edit2 above.
based on 8500 as notional position:
5 positions open:
sh; 8344, - 156
sh; 8494, -6
sh; 8475, -25
ln; 8540, -40
ln; 8410, -10.
net exposure = -237.

Hi Trendie,
Thanks for the analysis, it makes it much easier to understand what's going on.

One comment from someone sitting on the sidelines (current work situation doesn't allow for trading) is that these "don't ever take a loss" methods tend to work fantastically until they blow up your account. I may be mis-representing marmoset's method and all kudos to him for his posting and it's fascinating to watch but there's no such thing as a free lunch in the markets: every approach that you might use will always have a weakness. For example, break-out methods will get clobbered in choppy markets and counter-trend methods get clobbered in trending markets.

What would be a good guide to what's actually going on is a marked-to-market figure of the P&L which is what your broker is actually looking at when he sets the margin and/or closes the account. So if I understand correctly it's +176 in the bag and -237 open positions giving a net of -61.

Having said all that, best of luck to you marmoset. It does make for fascinating reading and livens up my otherwise long working day.

 

[marmoset]

Taking a short break at work here.

Excellent point there a_gnome.

I do have different strategies for different types of market behaviors:
tight range: buy low, sell high, keep the limits 5-8 pips inside the range, see 1st of May

tight range breakout: gap limit entry, reversed position in case it's a false break-out

choppy day (big fun :cheesy: ): see last two days

strong trending: still working on that.

trend reversal: in view of my open positions, still working on that too (probably will do a concept write-up this weekend, will be a short while in the office for testing a new software release)

And yes, there ain't no such thing as a free lunch (TANSTAAFL for the Herbert Heinlein aficionados), see my first stab at it resulting in me blowing my account out of the water for the 3rd time.

But by and large I'm happy with this (very agressive, to say the least) way of trading, I'm live testing and learning by doing at the same time. Sort of putting my money where my mouth is

 

[marmoset]

trendie,

Update:

b .1 8375 lim 8404 cancelled as not triggered
s .1 8595 lim 8550 cancelled as not triggered
b .1 8305 lim 8396 cancelled as not triggered

EDIT: need clarification:if new entry not triggered, then the trade should be cancelled, as they are based on pivots. and a new day renders obselete previous days pivots/entries. I shall assume the above to be correct unless advised.

1st one: correct, cancelled due to being based on a pivot level. In real life I just drag it to a bounce-off point and adjust the limit, saves work.

2nd one: nope, that's a big figure bounce entry, so is the 3rd. The limits are just wider because they're at the outer range for the day, taking advantage of a big leap up/down and reversing partway.
edited to add:
As the range gets closer, limits are adjusted to +/-35 pips, making it a plain vanilla bounce entry.