Best Thread Live Cable Trading

[Baruch]

will this afternoon be weak with regards to trends / volatility, due to it being Presidents Day in the US ?

Maybe. There are no more data news (except leading indicators from Canada) today, so we can expect some technical trading from the small traders. But Trichet speaks this afternoon - the problem is that nobody can understand what he says... :cheesy:

 

[jacinto]

humle opinion, revisits 7400, then back up around 7530.

 

[JonnyT]

I used to think that days when the US is closed the market will be thin. It has consistently proved me wrong and the markets moved a Country mile!!!

Maybe today will be the exception now I've posted.

JonnyT

 

[zuke]

SHORT 412..looking for 30 pips to start the week 20 pip stop

Well I got my ass spanked on that one 😱 😱 stopped out for -30 😱

 

[Kaffee]

3rd Monday in February 2005 (last President's Day) Cable moved in a range between 8923 and 8998 from 6am to 10am.

After lunch it more or less bobbed around in a 30 point range.

Ho hum... back to my book.

 

[trendie]

3rd Monday in February 2005 (last President's Day) Cable moved in a range between 8923 and 8998 from 6am to 10am.

After lunch it more or less bobbed around in a 30 point range.

Ho hum... back to my book.

still havent finished colouring that in yet, Kaffee ? :cheesy: :cheesy:

EDIT: forgive me, it IS a quiet day.

 

[TheBramble]

The fascinating thing about a narrow range is the possibility of getting faked when it breaks. Assuming it does break... 😆

Trying hard not to have a higher expectation of an eventual up move for the day, which could well be preceded by a fake to, or slightly beyond the 408 level I mentioned this morning (which has been touched once already).

If I was able to manipulate these things, I'd take it a tad below the 400 level to get the Shorts triggered and any remaining longer term Longs stopped out - and then...

 

[Baruch]

Here is two threads about Straddles On News:

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexforum/showthread.php?t=3292&highlight=straddle

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexforum/showthread.php?t=3315&highlight=straddle

And a Straddle Calculator: http://www.hawaii4x.com/about/straddle_calculator.html

 

[TheBramble]

Baruch, are you trying to tell us something?

I haven't exactly had to hang onto my hat today...yet.....

The straddle before 'Big' news has always been an obvious strategy, but I don't recall many on this thread mentioning playing with FX Options. Would be an interesting sub-forum perhaps?

The more basic approach to it is to have a vanilla Long and Short positions placed either side of the band and kill the one that doesn't get triggered. But as I alluded to a couple of posts back, that approach often get's taken out by an initial fake or feint from the range. Far better to play it manually in those circumstances - or not play at all.

 

[Baruch]

Baruch, are you trying to tell us something?

I haven't exactly had to hang onto my hat today...yet.....

The straddle before 'Big' news has always been an obvious strategy, but I don't recall many on this thread mentioning playing with FX Options. Would be an interesting sub-forum perhaps?

The more basic approach to it is to have a vanilla Long and Short positions placed either side of the band and kill the one that doesn't get triggered. But as I alluded to a couple of posts back, that approach often get's taken out by an initial fake or feint from the range. Far better to play it manually in those circumstances - or not play at all.

I trade the news, but I place my orders after I have seen the news and the initial action - I just placed those links to those here, who might be interested in this approach, and would like to comment it.

 

[TheBramble]

Tuesday, February 21st 2006

After yesterday's Roller-Coaster ride I'm sure we could all do with a breather today. But, alas, with it currently swinging wildly 5 or 6 points every hour, looks like it's action stations all over again.

🙄

Outside bands I'll be looking at today are 392/468 with the inner 'bands' (actually closer today to a single level from a non-scalping trading perspective) at 424/436.

Normal range play within and confirmed BO around these levels.

Baruch's post last night about Straddles (which attempt to capture imminent directional moves, but not direction) was interesting. While a straddle using FX options wouldn't have paid off in yesterday's market, it was clear from a few posts yesterday that many 'expected' low volatility. Even with the tools to sell volatility though, how would you be sure you were going to be in a low-range day?

 

[TheBramble]

7424 has been tested 3 times in succession on the 5min bar so I'm now Short at 7421 with a stop at 7435.

 

[darktone]

I used to bracket / straddle E/$ on NFPR day, was using GFT at the time. orders to go long and short with contingent stops 4 pips wide (3 of those where spread) just outside the 15 min swing H/L leading upto data. Was the next best thing to free money!! was great until everyone pulled the "guaranteed stop" offerings (well... you cant give away free money forever!! 😆 ).
You cant play news in this way now without problems (slippage/nofill/etc).
Playing news on manual after the announcement for direction is great but you need the tools (speed / execution / platform), not to mention plans and nerves set in concrete 😆 .. not for the faint hearted.

Was thinking about thinking options(something i know very little about). havent looked into it though..surly they must priced accordingly on/near NFPR day!?

 

[TheBramble]

Was thinking about thinking options(something i know very little about). havent looked into it though..surly they must priced accordingly on/near NFPR day!?

You bet!

But they also, by the vary nature of any skew inherent in the pricing/premium bias (either to the upside or downside), give an indication of which way the pros think it's going to go. Which can be useful. 😆

I have found that by looking at the pricing of the FX exotics prior to big news can give a quick and reasonably clear indication of (any) bias. The exotics are quicker to calculate than vanilla options. If anyone have a quicker way of getting RT vanilla options pricing - let me know!

However, I personally do wait for the action to confirm. I know I'm often going to lose pips in the process, but I'd rather have 20 fewer pips on a winner than an outright loser.

Call me Mr. Cautious.

 

[trendie]

one of the frustrating things about live calls is that a call can skew your perceptions into wondering if you should be on the ride, and skew your analysis to see if the call can be validated using ones one rules / indicators.

Using the DiNapoli 8,3,3 Stoch, there is a cross-over to the downside, with the MACD down.
( however, I want the LBR hook to confirm )

 

[Kaffee]

Oh god please no... not another range bound day. I've spent 2 months tryng to sort a trend based system !!!

 

[Baruch]

I used to bracket / straddle E/$ on NFPR day, was using GFT at the time. orders to go long and short with contingent stops 4 pips wide (3 of those where spread) just outside the 15 min swing H/L leading upto data. Was the next best thing to free money!! was great until everyone pulled the "guaranteed stop" offerings (well... you cant give away free money forever!! 😆 ).
You cant play news in this way now without problems (slippage/nofill/etc).
Playing news on manual after the announcement for direction is great but you need the tools (speed / execution / platform), not to mention plans and nerves set in concrete 😆 .. not for the faint hearted.

Was thinking about thinking options(something i know very little about). havent looked into it though..surly they must priced accordingly on/near NFPR day!?

I read about a trader, jasperforex, which used day options from ig index before major news like NFP. He bought both call and put options, so he's only risk was if the market didn't move.

 

[TheBramble]

First trade of the day stopped for -14.

"I love the smell of Napalm in the morning..."


trendie - One of the prime rules of successful trading (see my results from above to confirm my status as a Master Trader and able to make such pronouncements 😱 ) is to NOT be swayed by what others are saying/doing.

On this thread you're normally OK as there's usually as many going one way as the other - just like the markets. 😆

 

[trendie]

Brambs,

why did you bail out at 35 ? the previous range high was around 39/40 ?

[rules] I think I would make a good general, as I am always finding rules to trade the last trade that I missed.

 

[zuke]

Morning all...interesting discussion about exotics (I used to structure exotics for a living). The main problem with the straddle is getting taken out by a head fake. Also very touch to execute as a small speculator due to the usual fun and games..slippage etc.

Bramble..are you still playing with digitals?? Or was that FC?