Best Thread Live Cable Trading

trendie said:
will this afternoon be weak with regards to trends / volatility, due to it being Presidents Day in the US ?
Click to expand...

Maybe. There are no more data news (except leading indicators from Canada) today, so we can expect some technical trading from the small traders. But Trichet speaks this afternoon - the problem is that nobody can understand what he says... :cheesy:
 
I used to think that days when the US is closed the market will be thin. It has consistently proved me wrong and the markets moved a Country mile!!!

Maybe today will be the exception now I've posted.

JonnyT
 
3rd Monday in February 2005 (last President's Day) Cable moved in a range between 8923 and 8998 from 6am to 10am.

After lunch it more or less bobbed around in a 30 point range.

Ho hum... back to my book.
 
Kaffee said:
3rd Monday in February 2005 (last President's Day) Cable moved in a range between 8923 and 8998 from 6am to 10am.

After lunch it more or less bobbed around in a 30 point range.

Ho hum... back to my book.
Click to expand...

still havent finished colouring that in yet, Kaffee ? :cheesy: :cheesy:

EDIT: forgive me, it IS a quiet day.
 
The fascinating thing about a narrow range is the possibility of getting faked when it breaks. Assuming it does break... :LOL:

Trying hard not to have a higher expectation of an eventual up move for the day, which could well be preceded by a fake to, or slightly beyond the 408 level I mentioned this morning (which has been touched once already).

If I was able to manipulate these things, I'd take it a tad below the 400 level to get the Shorts triggered and any remaining longer term Longs stopped out - and then...
 
Baruch, are you trying to tell us something?

I haven't exactly had to hang onto my hat today...yet.....

The straddle before 'Big' news has always been an obvious strategy, but I don't recall many on this thread mentioning playing with FX Options. Would be an interesting sub-forum perhaps?

The more basic approach to it is to have a vanilla Long and Short positions placed either side of the band and kill the one that doesn't get triggered. But as I alluded to a couple of posts back, that approach often get's taken out by an initial fake or feint from the range. Far better to play it manually in those circumstances - or not play at all.
 
TheBramble said:
Baruch, are you trying to tell us something?

I haven't exactly had to hang onto my hat today...yet.....

The straddle before 'Big' news has always been an obvious strategy, but I don't recall many on this thread mentioning playing with FX Options. Would be an interesting sub-forum perhaps?

The more basic approach to it is to have a vanilla Long and Short positions placed either side of the band and kill the one that doesn't get triggered. But as I alluded to a couple of posts back, that approach often get's taken out by an initial fake or feint from the range. Far better to play it manually in those circumstances - or not play at all.
Click to expand...

I trade the news, but I place my orders after I have seen the news and the initial action - I just placed those links to those here, who might be interested in this approach, and would like to comment it.
 
Tuesday, February 21st 2006

After yesterday's Roller-Coaster ride I'm sure we could all do with a breather today. But, alas, with it currently swinging wildly 5 or 6 points every hour, looks like it's action stations all over again.

:rolleyes:

Outside bands I'll be looking at today are 392/468 with the inner 'bands' (actually closer today to a single level from a non-scalping trading perspective) at 424/436.

Normal range play within and confirmed BO around these levels.

Baruch's post last night about Straddles (which attempt to capture imminent directional moves, but not direction) was interesting. While a straddle using FX options wouldn't have paid off in yesterday's market, it was clear from a few posts yesterday that many 'expected' low volatility. Even with the tools to sell volatility though, how would you be sure you were going to be in a low-range day?
 
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7424 has been tested 3 times in succession on the 5min bar so I'm now Short at 7421 with a stop at 7435.
 
I used to bracket / straddle E/$ on NFPR day, was using GFT at the time. orders to go long and short with contingent stops 4 pips wide (3 of those where spread) just outside the 15 min swing H/L leading upto data. Was the next best thing to free money!! was great until everyone pulled the "guaranteed stop" offerings (well... you cant give away free money forever!! :LOL: ).
You cant play news in this way now without problems (slippage/nofill/etc).
Playing news on manual after the announcement for direction is great but you need the tools (speed / execution / platform), not to mention plans and nerves set in concrete :LOL: .. not for the faint hearted.

Was thinking about thinking options(something i know very little about). havent looked into it though..surly they must priced accordingly on/near NFPR day!?
 
darktone said:
Was thinking about thinking options(something i know very little about). havent looked into it though..surly they must priced accordingly on/near NFPR day!?
Click to expand...
You bet!

But they also, by the vary nature of any skew inherent in the pricing/premium bias (either to the upside or downside), give an indication of which way the pros think it's going to go. Which can be useful. :LOL:

I have found that by looking at the pricing of the FX exotics prior to big news can give a quick and reasonably clear indication of (any) bias. The exotics are quicker to calculate than vanilla options. If anyone have a quicker way of getting RT vanilla options pricing - let me know!

However, I personally do wait for the action to confirm. I know I'm often going to lose pips in the process, but I'd rather have 20 fewer pips on a winner than an outright loser.

Call me Mr. Cautious.
 
one of the frustrating things about live calls is that a call can skew your perceptions into wondering if you should be on the ride, and skew your analysis to see if the call can be validated using ones one rules / indicators.

Using the DiNapoli 8,3,3 Stoch, there is a cross-over to the downside, with the MACD down.
( however, I want the LBR hook to confirm )
 
Oh god please no... not another range bound day. I've spent 2 months tryng to sort a trend based system !!!
 
darktone said:
I used to bracket / straddle E/$ on NFPR day, was using GFT at the time. orders to go long and short with contingent stops 4 pips wide (3 of those where spread) just outside the 15 min swing H/L leading upto data. Was the next best thing to free money!! was great until everyone pulled the "guaranteed stop" offerings (well... you cant give away free money forever!! :LOL: ).
You cant play news in this way now without problems (slippage/nofill/etc).
Playing news on manual after the announcement for direction is great but you need the tools (speed / execution / platform), not to mention plans and nerves set in concrete :LOL: .. not for the faint hearted.

Was thinking about thinking options(something i know very little about). havent looked into it though..surly they must priced accordingly on/near NFPR day!?
Click to expand...

I read about a trader, jasperforex, which used day options from ig index before major news like NFP. He bought both call and put options, so he's only risk was if the market didn't move.
 
First trade of the day stopped for -14.

"I love the smell of Napalm in the morning..."


trendie - One of the prime rules of successful trading (see my results from above to confirm my status as a Master Trader and able to make such pronouncements :eek: ) is to NOT be swayed by what others are saying/doing.

On this thread you're normally OK as there's usually as many going one way as the other - just like the markets. :LOL:
 
Brambs,

why did you bail out at 35 ? the previous range high was around 39/40 ?

[rules] I think I would make a good general, as I am always finding rules to trade the last trade that I missed.
 
Morning all...interesting discussion about exotics (I used to structure exotics for a living). The main problem with the straddle is getting taken out by a head fake. Also very touch to execute as a small speculator due to the usual fun and games..slippage etc.

Bramble..are you still playing with digitals?? Or was that FC?
 
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