Best Thread Live Cable Trading

[trendie]

It's a bad system because in the afternoon you enter positions just before the big data news - and that's bad. It's not trading, it's gambling. If you want to trade Hans123, then only trade the 10.00 ECT signals.

why throw the baby out with the bathwater ?
if back-testing suggests taking the reversal if it meets criteria is a valid method, then rather than not trade the afternoon at all, why not simply not trade on major news days ?
( that way you dont take the afternoon trade on just a couple of afternoons per month, rather than avoid all afternoons )

 

[Baruch]

why throw the baby out with the bathwater ?
if back-testing suggests taking the reversal if it meets criteria is a valid method, then rather than not trade the afternoon at all, why not simply not trade on major news days ?
( that way you dont take the afternoon trade on just a couple of afternoons per month, rather than avoid all afternoons )

I think that if you trade a system you must take ALL signals - you can not choose which one to trade and which one not to trade. But I can be wrong.

 

[Kaffee]

why throw the baby out with the bathwater ?
if back-testing suggests taking the reversal if it meets criteria is a valid method, then rather than not trade the afternoon at all, why not simply not trade on major news days ?
( that way you dont take the afternoon trade on just a couple of afternoons per month, rather than avoid all afternoons )

Exactly. It's no different to doing all your analysis, taking a trade on and then the Fed putting the bubble in and wiping 90 points off Cable in a blink. (Er... just like last night !!)

It's all gambling. But you only need to be a fraction better than the house over time to do ok I would imagine.

Edit:- Now turning to today, what's going on with Cable ?? Support on the hourly, but it's having trouble breaking away.

Lots of pressure overhead on the 7 o'clock candle .... Mixed bag today.

 

[trendie]

I think that if you trade a system you must take ALL signals - you can not choose which one to trade and which one not to trade. But I can be wrong.

but if you choose according to quantifiable principles, ie; avoid NFP days or all Fed announcement days, then it simply becomes another objective rule, defineable in advance.

( this is no different to trading in MA cross-overs, but to ignore cross-overs if the range constricts to less than a quantifiable amount, to avoid whipsaws, and thus improve overall hit-rate. )

 

[trendie]

I think cable may make a heroic attempt to rise, but will close down on the day. ( its a "red" day for me )

 

[Baruch]

but if you choose according to quantifiable principles, ie; avoid NFP days or all Fed announcement days, then it simply becomes another objective rule, defineable in advance.

( this is no different to trading in MA cross-overs, but to ignore cross-overs if the range constricts to less than a quantifiable amount, to avoid whipsaws, and thus improve overall hit-rate. )

OK, but then it's not Hans123 anymore - it's trendie123? :cheesy: PS. It's not only NFP or FED which moves the market - all surprise news moves the market.

 

[dc2000]

You must use some pretty big stops

Not at all, I was stopped out of both my earlier shorts, I was expecting a short, as the news came out I hit the sell got massive slippage from 834 to 827 but rode it down to 764. hence a bad day turned out pretty good thanks to the FED boys.

As for today I currently have a small short 809 looking for 768 then take the rest of the day off as I expect a sideways day with as Trendie says an attempt to rise

 

[trendie]

Has anyone tried to solve Short-Term Delta for cable ?
My first attempt - broad-brush.
I think the Point-1 ( key point where most reversals are likely to take place ) is in mid-point of Blue Day. Am looking to define other points now.

 

[Baruch]

Better than expected UK PMi data, but who cares? This afternoon we will get US ISM (and EIA Petroleum Status).

PS. I suppose Hans123 is short in euro and cable now.

 

[zuke]

I think that if you trade a system you must take ALL signals - you can not choose which one to trade and which one not to trade. But I can be wrong.

Disagree Baruch..I use a variation of the tunnel method and dont trade it on major news days.

 

[zuke]

Morning All, Im SHORT 782 by the way (trading BB) looking for my 50-60 pips today.

 

[Baruch]

Disagree Baruch..I use a variation of the tunnel method and dont trade it on major news days.

It's maybe a good idea, but if you trade Hans123, you must follow the rules - if you change the rules, it's not Hans123 anymore.

 

[trendie]

Disagree Baruch..I use a variation of the tunnel method and dont trade it on major news days.

is this variation based on the Vegas Tunnel, and Stratobalster Tunnel ?

 

[dc2000]

Was tempted with the long, But more tempted with the day off :cheesy:

 

[Baruch]

Was tempted with the long, But more tempted with the day off :cheesy:

DC,
Long? I thought you were short? I think a surprise number in US ISM later today can make some action, even with NFP later this week. But have a nice day off... 😉

 

[zuke]

is this variation based on the Vegas Tunnel, and Stratobalster Tunnel ?

Vegas..its a pretty good system, if you can deal with the inevitable lag.

 

[Kaffee]

If you beleive what goes down, must go up.... Hans123 might be in for a good February:-

On monthly basis the results are:

March 2005: +721 pips
April 2005: +940 pips
May 2005: +296 pips
June 2005: +857 pips
July 2005: +1,352 pips
August 2005: + 35 pips
September 2005: -20 pips
October 2005: +1,825 pips
November 2005: +554 pips
December 2005: +345 pips
January 2006: +73 pips

 

[fseitun]

If you beleive what goes down, must go up.... Hans123 might be in for a good February:-

On monthly basis the results are:

March 2005: +721 pips
April 2005: +940 pips
May 2005: +296 pips
June 2005: +857 pips
July 2005: +1,352 pips
August 2005: + 35 pips
September 2005: -20 pips
October 2005: +1,825 pips
November 2005: +554 pips
December 2005: +345 pips
January 2006: +73 pips

Kafee

are those pips for real?

If YES, whoever uses that method should be filthy rich by now, granted that a proper money management is adopted.

I'd be happy with 2-3 of those months for the whole year!

 

[Kaffee]

Kafee

are those pips for real?

If YES, whoever uses that method should be filthy rich by now, granted that a proper money management is adopted.

I'd be happy with 2-3 of those months for the whole year!

Let me guess which 2 - 3 months !!! 😉

Nobody has been able to confirm they are correct through backtesting. But I'm not sure how good the programming is behind the back test.

Best I did was download a years worth of data and rough check a couple of months by eye before I got bored..... and it was there or thereabouts.

But it requires too much capital for Joe Public IMHO.

Only really posted the totals again for those of us trading breakout strategies... just to give some hope !! 😉

 

[ChowClown]

Hans' current Max Drawdown is 622 pips. I seem to remember reading somewhere on the Hans thread (on t'other channel), that Feb '05 resulted in a loss of 800+ pips? Hans has posted that he is a full-time trader and trading the method live. He recommends a $50k+ account...