Best Thread Live Cable Trading

[Kaffee]

right here we go...

JPG's attached of both Long and Short trades since Jan 03..

couple of assumptions made...ie that the breakout occurs with the 8-9am period, ie, within 1 hour of the 7-8am high..

as you can see, both sides are losers after costs are taken into account..

please don't trade this long term unless you can find a decent filter..

and no, don't use a moving average as a filter.. it is one of the worst filters for breakout strats you can have...

FC

FC... isn't this the point though "...if all trades had been exited at the high".

Like I said earlier you could have nailed 25 points on a short this morning from the 7 - 8 range. The fact that it subsequently reversed is the real issue. Would your system class this scenario
as

1) Winner of say 18 - 20 points (This is where the filter comes into play I'd say, not to cut it too soon/late)

2) Breakeven trade

3) Stop loss of say 25-30 ??

Depends which way you look at it I'd say.

 

[Baruch]

zuke, from experience, the majority of breakouts occur within the 1st hour..


FC

Yes, I agree, and if not, it's because there comes important eco news later in the morning, but what is "the 1st hour"? Between 7 and 8 am or 8 and 9 am?

 

[Baruch]

FC... isn't this the point though "...if all trades had been exited at the high".

Like I said earlier you could have nailed 25 points on a short this morning from the 7 - 8 range. The fact that it subsequently reversed is the real issue. Would your system class this scenario
as

1) Winner of say 18 - 20 points

2) Breakeven trade

3) Stop loss of say 25-30 ??

Depends which way you look at it I'd say.

Kaffee,

You must have traded Big Kaffee because there was not 25 pips in a short with Big Ben...

 

[trendie]

Yes, I agree, and if not, it's because there comes important eco news later in the morning, but what is "the 1st hour"? Between 7 and 8 am or 8 and 9 am?

I would say 7-8 is Zero hour, as it sets the scene for the action. ( defines the High and Low range )
first hour = 8-9am.
second hour = 9-10 etc.

 

[Baruch]

FC..that assumes that you make an entry with the first couple of hours. This is the distinction between the Big Baruch and Big Ben. On Big Ben 7-8 is the range. When it breaks out you trade it..even if it doesnt break out until 5pm. On Big Baruch..(so Baruch tells me..although this always seems to be subject to change :cheesy: ) you trade the first MOVE after Long open if its "confirmed" by the Euro. Too subjective for me..thats why I trade the Big Ben.

Yes, that's the basic rules (and I have not changed them).

PS. Nice trade you had yesterday with Big Bin Laden... :cheesy:

 

[zuke]

zuke, from experience, the majority of breakouts occur within the 1st hour..

if you can dig up the old "is this one spot on" thread that JonnyT initialised, you will see that 70%+ of the triggers occurred within the first hour..

also, there is very little correlation between narrow ranges, and then expanding ranges..at least on a daily basis..

i have done Narrow Range backtesting on futures indices, and frankly, the range after a NR4/NR7 day is virtually the same as any other day... eg, its yet another of the fallacies that are thrown around by people without testing and analysis..

FC

FC..Im confused..how could the Spot on trades b/o's in the first hour? I thought the range was 7-10?? Or do you mean the first hour after the range has been set?

 

[Kaffee]

Kaffee,

You must have traded Big Kaffee because there was not 25 pips in a short with Big Ben...

No ? Range 7-8 = 7585 / 7559

First breakout of that range was to the short side and it hit 7534... ok not 25 pips if you include costs. Sorry !! But you get the idea

And don't forget, on JohnnyT's advice, we're not applying a filter so you trade bang on the range.

 

[FetteredChinos]

DC, holiday snaps should now be attached.

FX engines is a server-based auto-execution fx platform..

basically you can create your entry rules (subject to rather basic criteria as standard - though you can get them to create custom specialised entries - ie im sure they could code up genesis for a fee ) and then they host those rules on their servers and execute them in live trading, charging 1 pip as their fee..

in actuality, i am using them more for their backtesting capabilities, than their execution capabilities, as their entry criteria only have RSI, MA's, Stochs, ADX and Breakouts as their basic rules, (which you can customise) and they are pretty limited.

fc

 

[Kaffee]

Blimey it's heating up in here now isn't it ?!

 

[Baruch]

No ? Range 7-8 = 7585 / 7559

First breakout of that range was to the short side and it hit 7534... ok not 25 pips if you include costs. Sorry !! But you get the idea

And don't forget, on JohnnyT's advice, we're not applying a filter so you trade bang on the range.

Did it really hit 34? Not on my chart, but it's not your problem. :cheesy:

 

[Baruch]

I would say 7-8 is Zero hour, as it sets the scene for the action. ( defines the High and Low range )
first hour = 8-9am.
second hour = 9-10 etc.

That's not a bad idea. Let's check it out next week, trendie.

PS. But some big moves starts between 7 and 8am.

 

[FetteredChinos]

FC..Im confused..how could the Spot on trades b/o's in the first hour? I thought the range was 7-10?? Or do you mean the first hour after the range has been set?

the first hour after the range has been set..

most successful b/o's occur early soon after the range has been set..

the long it goes on, the more likely that either the high/low for the day were set at the start of the day, or you get head/toe-fakes..

analyse the data for yourselves.. i have done a shed load of excel work on this, and they don't look promising, long term..

 

[dc2000]

Cheers FC found them

I can see Im going to be busy this weekend

 

[FetteredChinos]

FC... isn't this the point though "...if all trades had been exited at the high".

Like I said earlier you could have nailed 25 points on a short this morning from the 7 - 8 range. The fact that it subsequently reversed is the real issue. Would your system class this scenario
as

1) Winner of say 18 - 20 points (This is where the filter comes into play I'd say, not to cut it too soon/late)

2) Breakeven trade

3) Stop loss of say 25-30 ??

Depends which way you look at it I'd say.

i'll give you a million quid/dollars (insert currency here) if you can tell me how to exit at a high or a low...

 

[Kaffee]

Did it really hit 34? Not on my chart, but it's not your problem. :cheesy:

Hmmm.. that might be where we are having an issue. I see that same thing on the Hans123 thread.

I use FXCM charts and yes, that was hit. I'm using Capitalspreads and their bias is to the long side by 1 point over mid from the FXCM charts i.e thier bid is 1 point greater than FXCM's mid quote.

So the prices you could have got would be Sell at 60... buy at 38. (3 point spread). So that's 22 points. Like I said before I only want 20 points a day for a living.

I can post a jpeg of FXCM chart if you still have your doubts.

 

[FetteredChinos]

guys, if 1pip here or there is causing problems in the strategy, then that should set the alarm bells ringing.....

 

[Baruch]

Hmmm.. that might be where we are having an issue. I see that same thing on the Hans123 thread.

I use FXCM charts and yes, that was hit. I'm using Capitalspreads and their bias is to the long side by 1 point over mid from the FXCM charts i.e thier bid is 1 point greater than FXCM's mid quote.

So the prices you could have got would be Sell at 60... buy at 38. (3 point spread). So that's 22 points. Like I said before I only want 20 points a day for a living.

I can post a jpeg of FXCM chart if you still have your doubts.

No, no, it's OK. But according to the Saxo Trader chart it only went to around 45 (bid), but who cares? Make a call here the next time with the range (monday).

 

[Kaffee]

i'll give you a million quid/dollars (insert currency here) if you can tell me how to exit at a high or a low...

Wouldn't need to take the bet if I could tell you that would I ?!

The point is.... I'd like to know what went into the FXEngine model, because if your programmng it to say... take the break out and get me a hundred points per day it ain't going to happen.

However, if you're saying Take the break out and sneak 15,20 or 30 and I don;t care if you then reverse.... well that's a different ball game.

Did play around with a reversal back through the 20 SMA on a 1 minute chart as a exit... and it worked REALLY on those days in December when cable was spiking 60 - 70 points before 10am, but on whipsaw days it's pants.

And if've you've got a million quid, what are you doing playing cable ?? Get yourself some T bonds and hit the beach !!

 

[Kaffee]

No, no, it's OK. But according to the Saxo Trader chart it only went to around 45 (bid), but who cares? Make a call here the next time with the range (monday).

That's what me and Trendie have done this week ?!

 

[FetteredChinos]

lol Kaffee, remember my pm from a few weeks ago....