Best Thread Live Cable Trading

[Kaffee]

Yes, but the reserval came after 8 am, and then it's not the Big Ben? But maybe we can call it Big Kaffee? :cheesy:

PS. I suppose Big Ben is a break out from the range between 7 and 8 am?

?? It's the range between 7 and 8 that's important... might not be broken until midday, you've still got to take it on.

Spoken to the marketing guys here, they've siad Big Kaffee sucks as a brand name !!

 

[trendie]

?? It's the range between 7 and 8 that's important... might not be broken until midday, you've still got to take it on.

Spoken to the marketing guys here, they've siad Big Kaffee sucks as a brand name !!

would trading the reversal be called a De-Kaff ??

 

[Kaffee]

BREAKING NEWS..


2nd Whale spotted in the Thames near Southend..

watch out, it's a regular market mover, this one...

Long Whale Steak....

LOL Trendie !!

 

[FetteredChinos]

the way he is trading at the mo, surely hot Kaffee is better?

 

[FetteredChinos]

surely you want to short whale steak? excess supply?

and also short jellied eel while you are at it? excess supply of substitute products..

go long gelatine though...

 

[Kaffee]

surely you want to short whale steak? excess supply?

and also short jellied eel while you are at it? excess supply of substitute products..

go long gelatine though...

Nope... new to market, and in the city as well, which means premiums prices, short it as they try and roll the delicacy out to the sateliite counties and water down the added value.

Dragons Den here we come !!!

 

[FetteredChinos]

ah, trying to skim the market... recover development and harpooning costs as soon as possible.

i like it..

what about the increased distribution costs? "we're gonna need a bigger truck"..?

 

[Baruch]

?? It's the range between 7 and 8 that's important... might not be broken until midday, you've still got to take it on.

Spoken to the marketing guys here, they've siad Big Kaffee sucks as a brand name !!

I don't think your right - the idea is to catch the first break out from the Asia range when the traders in London and Frankfurt starts trading between 7 and 8 am.

 

[Kaffee]

ah, trying to skim the market... recover development and harpooning costs as soon as possible.

i like it..

what about the increased distribution costs? "we're gonna need a bigger truck"..?

Do I have to think of everything ?? We open a riverside restaurant, with a drop side kitchen onto the Thames. Gut the heffer on the shoreline.

 

[FetteredChinos]

hmm, perhaps open the carcass up as a new rollarcoaster after we have finished...

they'll have a whale of a time on it..

 

[Kaffee]

I don't think your right - the idea is to catch the first break out from the Asia range when the traders in London and Frankfurt starts trading between 7 and 8 am.

What are we talking about again ? The pdf version of Big Ben or T2W's version ?

The pdf version says something like "Cable makes a new range low/high (by 25 points) somewhere in the Frankfurt / London opening window, then reverses and trades 25 points above/below opening price. It then reverses once again and THIS is the trade you take on with a filter of about 7 points. Initial stop loss of 40 and cover half at +40 and leave rest to run"

That's a very crude interpretation of that Currency Trader mag article. Best re-read it if you're still unclear. But it looks like textbook stuff today to me.

Our Big Ben (or variant of Johnny T breakfast strategy ) is breakout of 7-8 range.... now trendie raised an interesting question about taking the reverse trade on if the initial break "fails" but I guess that depends on your targets doesn't it ??

Initial break today was good for 25 points.....

 

[trendie]

hmm, perhaps open the carcass up as a new rollarcoaster after we have finished...

they'll have a whale of a time on it..

buy three steaks, get a whale-bone corset free.

like to see that carcass on a catwalk.

 

[Kaffee]

hmm, perhaps open the carcass up as a new rollarcoaster after we have finished...

they'll have a whale of a time on it..

 

[FetteredChinos]

guys, to save you the time, i have tested the breakout strats on fxengines...

it is marginally profitable at best on GBP/USD, assuming an entry within the first 2 hours..

i have tried all manner of trailing stops, time based exits etc, targets and wotnot..

either way, i dont feel it is a valid way of trading..

i will post my results up here in a bit for you to digest, based on 3 years of tick-by tick data..

it ain't good, im afraid.

FC

 

[trendie]

FC, re: above post.

your analysis is on the Big Ben strategy ?

 

[zuke]

FC..that assumes that you make an entry with the first couple of hours. This is the distinction between the Big Baruch and Big Ben. On Big Ben 7-8 is the range. When it breaks out you trade it..even if it doesnt break out until 5pm. On Big Baruch..(so Baruch tells me..although this always seems to be subject to change :cheesy: ) you trade the first MOVE after Long open if its "confirmed" by the Euro. Too subjective for me..thats why I trade the Big Ben.

 

[FetteredChinos]

right here we go...

JPG's attached of both Long and Short trades since Jan 03..

couple of assumptions made...ie that the breakout occurs with the 8-9am period, ie, within 1 hour of the 7-8am high..

as you can see, both sides are losers after costs are taken into account..

please don't trade this long term unless you can find a decent filter..

and no, don't use a moving average as a filter.. it is one of the worst filters for breakout strats you can have...

FC

 

[Kaffee]

guys, to save you the time, i have tested the breakout strats on fxengines...

it is marginally profitable at best on GBP/USD, assuming an entry within the first 2 hours..

i have tried all manner of trailing stops, time based exits etc, targets and wotnot..

either way, i dont feel it is a valid way of trading..

i will post my results up here in a bit for you to digest, based on 3 years of tick-by tick data..

it ain't good, im afraid.

FC

That's very kind of you FC. Bit sorry to hear it doesn't work over the longer time frame..... but to be honest I found that as well when I went back and used some of the data from Livecharts.co.uk.... But I was kind of hoping that it was down to duff data.

 

[FetteredChinos]

zuke, from experience, the majority of breakouts occur within the 1st hour..

if you can dig up the old "is this one spot on" thread that JonnyT initialised, you will see that 70%+ of the triggers occurred within the first hour..

also, there is very little correlation between narrow ranges, and then expanding ranges..at least on a daily basis..

i have done Narrow Range backtesting on futures indices, and frankly, the range after a NR4/NR7 day is virtually the same as any other day... eg, its yet another of the fallacies that are thrown around by people without testing and analysis..

FC

 

[dc2000]

FC I dont see any jpegs and whats fx engines