neil
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TheBramble
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stevet said:
Sorry I'm a couple of month's late in replying, but this is all so true.
If 95% of traders give their money to the other 5%, that's a ratio of 1:20. But you don't have to be 20 times smarter, more intelligent, quicker, brighter or better financed to be in the top 5%.
You just have to be that little bit more intelligent and/or quicker and/or brighter than the average punter.
Stevet's words sum it all up - work hard, keep at it, persevere. If you love it, you'll have no problem doing it - If you don't love it, why are you doing it anyway?
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Good thread, I certainly would like to know if the small guy can win big quickly or if this is a myth.
I started paper short term trading this year for about 6 months. At first it was really messy. Even on paper I was losing badly, 20 loses in a row one day, I didn't have a clue what I was doing but I was determined to give it a go and learn. Anyway to cut a long story short, its all about 'believing' you can do it and accepting that you will lose some trades. Once you accept that you will lose, then your trading decisions will get so much simplier. If you want to win more than lose then self confidence is the biggest factor in my trading. After working hard I seem to be getting my game together. I started live trading two weeks ago and I'm averaging 150 p pw. If I was honest with myself, some self doubt is creeping in, I may be lucky in these last two weeks but I have to force my thinking to thinking more positive.
I started paper short term trading this year for about 6 months. At first it was really messy. Even on paper I was losing badly, 20 loses in a row one day, I didn't have a clue what I was doing but I was determined to give it a go and learn. Anyway to cut a long story short, its all about 'believing' you can do it and accepting that you will lose some trades. Once you accept that you will lose, then your trading decisions will get so much simplier. If you want to win more than lose then self confidence is the biggest factor in my trading. After working hard I seem to be getting my game together. I started live trading two weeks ago and I'm averaging 150 p pw. If I was honest with myself, some self doubt is creeping in, I may be lucky in these last two weeks but I have to force my thinking to thinking more positive.
Can you win quickly? Only if you're really lucky. And if you miss when you take the one big chance, you're out of the game.
This is basic algebra -
Return = Risk x Capital x Time
Therefore, to get 10 x Return you need to either have on the other side of the equation 10 x Risk or 10 x Capital or 10 x Time. Since you're not prepared to increase Time and you don't have any extra Capital (or else why ask the question) all you can do is increase Risk. Most high-risk situations are losers, or else they wouldn't be high risk. So the answer is, No, the small guy can't win big quickly.
When you're just starting out, just concentrate on not losing. Your 20 losses in a row could be a blessing in disguise as they force you to confront the possibility this can happen (and so could happen again). Just practice, develop your technique, keep losses small, and you will win. This could be big, but it won't be quick. No need to set yourself a life-change target, like being self-supporting within 2 years: that's just extra pressure which won't help you improve your trading.
This is basic algebra -
Return = Risk x Capital x Time
Therefore, to get 10 x Return you need to either have on the other side of the equation 10 x Risk or 10 x Capital or 10 x Time. Since you're not prepared to increase Time and you don't have any extra Capital (or else why ask the question) all you can do is increase Risk. Most high-risk situations are losers, or else they wouldn't be high risk. So the answer is, No, the small guy can't win big quickly.
When you're just starting out, just concentrate on not losing. Your 20 losses in a row could be a blessing in disguise as they force you to confront the possibility this can happen (and so could happen again). Just practice, develop your technique, keep losses small, and you will win. This could be big, but it won't be quick. No need to set yourself a life-change target, like being self-supporting within 2 years: that's just extra pressure which won't help you improve your trading.
I meant to say something about losers too.
If you have a well-tested system that works long-term, let's imagine optimistically it is as good as 80% successful (wish I had one this good). So in every 100 trades you should have about 20 losers. Are those 20 losers mistakes? No, they are statistically unavoidable in your search for the 80 winners. They are just business overheads, like staff wages, lights and power. A mistake means you have to change your system: but as long as you keep at around the 80% mark, you are making no mistakes at all. Just keep going.
If you have a well-tested system that works long-term, let's imagine optimistically it is as good as 80% successful (wish I had one this good). So in every 100 trades you should have about 20 losers. Are those 20 losers mistakes? No, they are statistically unavoidable in your search for the 80 winners. They are just business overheads, like staff wages, lights and power. A mistake means you have to change your system: but as long as you keep at around the 80% mark, you are making no mistakes at all. Just keep going.
new_trader
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Brilliant, Honest Thread
Exactly, Agree 100%
Agree, 100%
Agree, 100%
An excellent thread filled with fantastic contributions from obviously battle hardened real traders rather than book learned pontificators posting quotes from their favourite books which they cling to like grim death.
Exactly, Agree 100%
Agree, 100%
Agree, 100%
An excellent thread filled with fantastic contributions from obviously battle hardened real traders rather than book learned pontificators posting quotes from their favourite books which they cling to like grim death.
Thank you to all of you who have contibuted so much of your time and wisdom to this thread. I have certainly learnt a lot and in many ways am fired up. The road ahead is long but undeniably promising; I have a great deal to learn but mastery is in sight.