lets define the correct yardstick

[TheBramble]

The action since the gap up indicates higher volume on the bear bars.

The bull moves are on much lighter volume.

You're close to testing recent levels of Resistance.

Even without the upper channel line - it's still an up-trending channel.

A safe play would be to exit on the left and enter on the right - if the channel holds.

A more adventurous play would be to see if volume continues to be more bearish and if the manipulation of higher prices on lighter volume is still being played. If this is so, your name could be Patsy along with all the rest if you're Long on a 'break' through Resistance. I'd short it under these circumstances with an extremely tight stop.

Without a longer term picture it's impossible to speculate further (no pun intended).

 

[contrakt]

Thank you.
I will chew on your advice now.
Made a small scalping profit on the intermarket short action at 12:52.
Tight stops.

 

[contrakt]

Bramble, I see what you mean. Thanks again.
Your examples are the bigger moves intra-day.
I have been eying these for some time now, but I dont have the skills yet to play them correct.

My focus is still very much on the very short term.
On the other hand made 3 short trades that where inspired by direct momentum in the smh underpinned by the relevant
inter market action.

All 3 profitable :cheesy: .

 

[contrakt]

The snapshot of today

afternoon price photo
with convincing channel
strategy for today:
a]scalping inter-market moves limit entry & market exit
b]bigger moves enter left exit right
c]wait for convincing double top

take on now at 1:07
scenario a] and or c] might be unfolding.
because all things I watch are not making new highs recently after big run (from the standpoint of a short term perspective).

I have decided not to solve the question on what time frame to choose.
Instead I want to focus on what price-change ranges I want to play.
That said, I like high frequency trades.
They feel like bread and butter.
But sometimes there are eminent bigger things going on.

 

[contrakt]

Strategy and edge

strategy= flexebility towards pricechange

edge=
-intermarket momentum timing
-Dutch tax regime
-IB

 

[TheBramble]

The snapshot of today

The picture has changed. Look at the price action and the volume.

 

[contrakt]

smh 2:34 support at

now around
38.64?
after upspike low volume on rising candles and bigger volum on down candles

use volume near the expected turns?!

 

[TheBramble]

now around
38.64?
after upspike low volume on rising candles and bigger volum on down candles

use volume near the expected turns?!

It wasn't an up 'spike' - it was an up move - it closed at the top - no spike.

And then relaxed on decreasing volume. Looks like it's taking a breather.

Dunno about 'support'. Based on this chart alone (15 min for just under couple of weeks) it's impossible to make that call. Where's the support/resistance in higher timeframes? Is there any?

As for 'expected turns' - what are they? Anticipation is a wonderful thing, providing you have a response planned for all eventualities. The other point, as you alluded to yesterday, is that one man's turn is another's blip...

Good luck

 

[contrakt]

It wasn't an up 'spike' - it was an up move - it closed at the top - no spike.

And then relaxed on decreasing volume. Looks like it's taking a breather.

Dunno about 'support'. Based on this chart alone (15 min for just under couple of weeks) it's impossible to make that call. Where's the support/resistance in higher timeframes? Is there any?

As for 'expected turns' - what are they? Anticipation is a wonderful thing, providing you have a response planned for all eventualities. The other point, as you alluded to yesterday, is that one man's turn is another's blip...

Good luck

Bramble, Good stuff.

 

[contrakt]

Pertinent Radar

While never forgetting the importance of protection of capital, the goal is to eliminate unnecessary (e)motion and negative mental distractions in order to consistently repeat professional performance.

How do I get better and more efficient at this? With that said, how important is time? How important is learning to perceive time? How important is it to re-calibrate and train my internal clock? More specifically, what time-frames photos will I choose to segment, analyse, and improve the development, planning and exploitation of all the strategies Im considering for my target market SMH?

And how often will I refresh these photos?

Strategies:
1] Intra-day scalps (in production) will make use of photo D and C;
2] Multi-day swings(under construction) will make use of photo D, C and B;
3] Big multi-week moves(just contemplating) will make use of photo D, B and A;

Top down photos with their respective refresh frequencies:
A] 4years weekly chart: refresh each weekend;
B] 1year daily candles: refresh each weekend and daily if tomorrow has potential to break-out of years range;
C] 20days chart 30m candles: refresh before right before begin of any trade session;
D] 2days chart(Yesterday+today) of 9cents and 5 minute candles: refresh real time.

 

[contrakt]

Strategies:
1] Intra-day scalps (in production) will make use of photo D and C;

Top down photos with their respective refresh frequencies:
C] 20days chart 30m candles: refresh before right before begin of any trade session;
D] 2days chart(Yesterday+today) of 9cents and 5 minute candles: refresh real time.

After contemplation on what deserves my highest priority, I have decided to completely focus on perfecting strategy 1.
Mayor differences between strategy 1, 2 an 3 will be:
-expectation of the size of te potential price-range to be traded;
-instruments:etf for strategy 1 (and maybe for strategy 2). for strategy 3 leaps(long options) might be considered.

 

[contrakt]

Master key

The student who learns that power comes from within, that he is weak only because he has depended on help from outside, and who unhesitatingly throws himself on his own thought, instantly rights himself, stands erect, assumes a dominant attitude, and works miracles.

Lesson 1
Every thought therefore is a cause and every condition an effect; for this reason it is absolutely essential that you control your thoughts so as to bring forth only desirable conditions. The world within is the cause, the world without the effect; to change the effect you must change the cause.

 

[contrakt]

Perfect entry timing for correlated breakouts in SMH

Logical entries for the last 2 days based on my 9cents chart for smh are (see chart).

Before taking these trades, the following 3 questions must be addressed correct and quickly:

1] Given recent trend/range and reaction area's of price in target market, what is a
prudent estimate of the potential for continuation of the ongoing move? answer: see chart C.

2] Does real time momentum of correlated market(s) assist the continuation of the
ongoing move? answer: see chart D for correlated markets and speed and momentum in NQ order-book.

3] What is the quality of the technical protection very recent price behaviour gives
the trade being considered. see chart D for SMH.

Other things that can have a dominant role in deciding to to stand aside or to enter are:
-the time of the day;
-if there is any news scheduled that could instantly influence the current market order.

 

[contrakt]

Perfect initial and trail protection for correlated breakouts in SMH

Istops for Initial protection

Look at last 3 candles before the entry candle.

For Longs: highest open of last (up, down)candle
For Short: lowest open of last (up, down)candle
Istops are underlined (yellow)

Trail protection

Key is:
-pauzes, direction and speed in order-book SMH and NQ;
-(lack) of continued strength/weakness in inter-market

For Longs:
For Short:

 

[SOCRATES]

The student who learns that power comes from within, that he is weak only because he has depended on help from outside, and who unhesitatingly throws himself on his own thought, instantly rights himself, stands erect, assumes a dominant attitude, and works miracles.

Lesson 1
Every thought therefore is a cause and every condition an effect; for this reason it is absolutely essential that you control your thoughts so as to bring forth only desirable conditions. The world within is the cause, the world without the effect; to change the effect you must change the cause.

Very good indeed, excellent.

 

[contrakt]

Sizing

To keep things simple for my self, for now Ill keep size constant.

 

[contrakt]

framework for strategy 1

post 95, 96, 99 and 103

 

[TheBramble]

To keep things simple for my self, for now Ill keep size constant.

Size of what?

Risk?

Capital employed?

R:R?

Stoploss (and if so constant absolute or constant %)?

Number of Shares?

 

[SOCRATES]

post 95, 96 and 99

Good, constructive, I like it, carry on.

 

[contrakt]

Size of what?
Risk?
Capital employed?
R:R?
Stoploss (and if so constant absolute or constant %)?
Number of Shares?

Number of Shares
Stops are set technical.
And trades must have a (potential reward: gross risk)>=2