Define risk

tomcat said:
Would be intersting to here peoples view on reducing risk together with probabilties of reward.
Tricky to answer precisely Tomcat.

Give us some idea of what is watering down your surplus.
ie low % A ( accuracy)
stopouts
bad exit ( you had the profit on the chart and let it go)
slippage ( in & out)
brokerage
overheads ( Wife´s new RR)

There is an answer for everything if you frame the question correctly.
 
SOC,

Skilled traders do not view commissions, stops, platform costs, telephone bills, stationery, or datafeed subscriptions as risks, they view these as business expenses.

Agreed, for the most part. However, "stops" are not business expenses, they are indeed part of the "risk" and for very good reason.

Stops, when they were first introduced into the traders arsenal as a money management tool in the early 1900's, were a sound and logical progression within the speculators methodology for attempting to profit from price fluctuation.

As "Charting" gained popularity, and the numbers utilising the concepts increased, so the variety of methodologies became inversely proportionate, which makes sense, as the truely horrible methods would see you broke quickly. Thus, the more successful the methodology, gradually the greater the number of people using it.

The outcome, is that, on any given signal to buy or sell, ever greater numbers of people are competing, within a compressed time frame to either enter, or exit.
This by definition causes competitive buying and selling, which in the aggregate, must result in a higher buying price, or lower exit price.

I would expect your answer to be somewhere along the lines of..............I always get the price I planned, ........the early bird, someone must always be first, and this will be proportionate to the skill, execution speed of individual traders, floor traders will be first in most instances, followed by the best of the rest, ............but for the 95%, my previous assertion holds true, therefore stoplosses increase their risk, over and above any cost of doing business.


cj12,

Many of life’s failures are people who did not realize how close they were to success when learning to day trade. But they gave up.A man can fail many times,day trading but he isn't a failure until he begins to blame somebody else.

The old saying 95% lose day trading.I rather say 95% of the failures come from people who have the habit of making excuses

All very nice, and I'm sure like many of the self-help books out there, more than a kernal of truth. However, all the self-motivation provided by these books are non-specific to the task at hand..........viz. I could be a failing surgeon, due to anxiety attacks, (we just got that TV series, my wife loves it) and possibly the advice contained would allow the ramping up of self-confidence, esteem,.........however, all the pumping-up in the world will not help unless you have the skills, and as we continuously see, even very intelligent people struggle in the financial markets. Therefore, the positive vibe, will in all likelihood increase their losses, unless they can go back to square one, and start the whole learning process again, most can't or won't.

RUDE,

Ducati, again, do agree with you in the most, but if expenses are high then a person needs to know how to economise here, it's a buissiness, after all. A simple charting package and a broker, maybe? Got to rush!

Unfortunately, as alluded to in my response to SOC, speed of execution is of primary importance to the daytrader, and even to myself, who will wallow in and out of positions.
Scrimping on trading platforms is a false economy, as it will without a doubt increase your losses.

c6,
And how many T.Edisons are there in the worlds population, anywhere approaching 5% or less?

RUDE,
Ducati, you mention 'self delusion', 'self delusion' as a self controlable part of the human psyche, defines 'winners' and 'losers'. It's up to the individual to be able to control how deluded they become about the markets. Delusion/risk, risk/delusion, in a way they create each other. Just my 2 cents?

Weeeeeeeeeell, how would you ....
1...realise you were self-deluded, if in point of fact you were?
2...and what would you do to rectify this unhappy circumstance?

SOC,
The reduction of risk to a very large extent hinges on trading ability. Trading ability relies on dealing skills and knowledge. Knowledge is not enough, there are other components that compliment it and the trader's familiarity with the instrument and its potential and or idiosyncrasies.

Disagree.
Accurate recognition and defining of risk is step one.
Step two involves the assessment of how this risk can be managed, if at all.
Step three, formalise a plan for your personal management of the risk.
Step four, take the risk (enter) or, reject the risk, (stand aside)

You imply that trading skill can overcome risk. This is nonsense.
I would agree that knowledge is vital, without this, you can not recognise,define, or manage your risk.

I think (personal observation) that you assume a greater level of knowledge within the participants on these boards, and thus jump or skip the basics, which are now purely subconscious for you, but lethal to someone just starting out. The rest of your post is undoubtably true.

cheers d998
 
Ducati, the markets never lie to anybody. To answer your question, i suppose if a person was so self deluded they would just keep on losing money, indefinately! By the way, what i have said before also applies to dissolusioment( excuse my spelling if this is wrong). To answer the other question, a person needs to possess self awareness, or self knowledge. A distinct lack of this within a person is very negative, they should not be involved in the markets, but who explains this to them? If a person needs to see a shrink before getting involved in the markets...lets just hope its not Nick Leeson?
 
Ducati, risk is only tangible after the event, tangible risk is only a consequence of the 'then', we need to apply ourselves to the 'non', how we do this is up to, and only, ourselves. This implies skill and knowledge, by the way, i have none?
 
RUDE,

Ducati, the markets never lie to anybody.

I would say that they lie to everyone......continuously.
Let me use an analogy.
When I go and play golf, I am at best average, at worst, dreadful, but.......every now and then I hit a couple of absolute perfect shots.........and it brings me back for further punishment another day, irrespective of how many new balls I must purchase to replace those swimming with the fishes. And the truely frightning aspect is that I understand exactly what is happening, yet continue the endeavour regardless.

To markets, usually, but not always, the aggregate losses, are interspersed with the odd winner, and sometimes big winner.
This dichotomy of results, far from revealing the self-delusion, actually strengthens the belief that success is only round the corner.

To those that lose all, by definition they cannot realise that they are deluding themselves, as they have continued to utter destruction, and even in the aftermath will not correctly attribute for their failure.
Traders, specifically poor traders (bad) share many of the same characteristics as gambling addicts.

Ducati, risk is only tangible after the event, tangible risk is only a consequence of the 'then', we need to apply ourselves to the 'non', how we do this is up to, and only, ourselves. This implies skill and knowledge, by the way, i have none?

Absolutely not.
Risk is quantifiable, not in exact terms, as this implies an ability to fortell the future, but in terms concrete enough to define what an intelligent and rational decision should consist of.
With a quantification of the risk, will develop a strategy to offset, mitigate, or avoid the assumption of that risk.

Ducati, its a nonentities thing, its all in the mind?

Got me here, I'm not sure I understand what you're trying to convey?

cheers d998
 
I'll lay my cards on the table! I've wiped out, not in one, took about 3 stages. It was probably the most self realising lesson i have ever learn't. Why? Because i really enjoy trading, and at the time it bloody well hurt, because i could not trade anymore. Now, i know my limits. The money i have behind myself i can afford to lose, not that i would want to, but i can afford to lose the lot. My psyche is, i want to make money but i also love the challenge. Trading offers both of these opportunities!
 
RUDE,

I'll lay my cards on the table! I've wiped out, not in one, took about 3 stages. It was probably the most self realising lesson i have ever learn't. Why? Because i really enjoy trading, and at the time it bloody well hurt, because i could not trade anymore. Now, i know my limits. The money i have behind myself i can afford to lose, not that i would want to, but i can afford to lose the lot. My psyche is, i want to make money but i also love the challenge. Trading offers both of these opportunities!

Well I certainly admire your candour and honesty.
So lets see if we can put you on a profitable track, and EARN your money back.

1...Never mix business with pleasure.
By this I mean, although you may love daytrading, or technical trading, if it is not paying you within the strategy you are employing, time to critically analyse what and why things are failing.

2..What are your limits?

3...You can NEVER AFFORD TO LOSE MONEY.
This you must come to terms with. The mindset must be NEVER, NEVER LOSE MONEY, and to do so must be creative enough to find ways that will absolutely minimise, the need to take a loss.

My psyche is, i want to make money but i also love the challenge. Trading offers both of these opportunities

This part of your post implies a competitiveness. This competitiveness is commendable within sport, business, and many activities in which we participate. It is strangely inappropriate in the financial markets, where the exact opposite actually delivers superior results.

cheers d998
 
See what you are saying Ducati, but this one could go round and round forever. The simple facts are forget 'black and white', this is not a deliberate evasion to your trading stance, but rather a deliberate stand for what i want out of all this. I don't want your concept in its entirerity and this is probably what you want in the least, looking at my view on the whole situation. Zero sum, i believe is the phrase?
 
RUDE,
Fair enough, to each their own. I however was not advocating a change to fundamentals, more a revision of your approach to technicals.
Cheers d998...........best of luck to you.
 
Besides, the markets are competitive, or there would be no such thing as 'buying' or 'selling' pressure. Infact, the futures market only come about from competitive speculation.
 
RUDE,

Besides, the markets are competitive, or there would be no such thing as 'buying' or 'selling' pressure. Infact, the futures market only come about from competitive speculation

The markets are indeed competitive, possibly one of the most competitive places on earth outside of war.

However, to profit from them, ironically, involves manipulating the competitiveness, not directly joining it.

cheers d998
 
RUDE,
Cheers, and I shall leave you with one of the immutable truths of the stock market.

Multa renascentur quae iam cecidere, cadentque
Quae nunc sunt in honore.

cheers d998
 
ducati998 said:
Let me use an analogy.
When I go and play golf, I am at best average, at worst, dreadful, but.......every now and then I hit a couple of absolute perfect shots.........and it brings me back for further punishment another day, irrespective of how many new balls I must purchase to replace those swimming with the fishes. And the truely frightning aspect is that I understand exactly what is happening, yet continue the endeavour regardless.

To markets, usually, but not always, the aggregate losses, are interspersed with the odd winner, and sometimes big winner.
This dichotomy of results, far from revealing the self-delusion, actually strengthens the belief that success is only round the corner.
This is very confusing to me. You play golf, and expect to shoot 90+. You know you will porbably have to record 9 bogeys and 7 double bogies. At the end of each golf game, your score card still shows 90+ strokes, right? So even if you occasionally get an eagle or a hole in one, there's no chance you would confuse yourself with a pro, right?

Why is this any different than the market score card, which is your account? At the end of each day (week, month) it either went up or down. If its not in line with what you expected, how can a trader not understand that they don't have a grip on things?

I paper trade because every d*mn week my account is still about where it was. I'm not losing much anymore, but I'm not gaining yet either. I have no belief that success is only just around the corner. There is no reason for me to suppose this until my account goes up consistently. I have no expectancy. Even if I were to have a couple of big gainers, unless that was part of my outlined plan, I would have to look at it the same way you would a hole in one. -it's just an anomaly - doesn't mean I've suddenly learned how to trade successfully.

JO
 
[duc998
I]Quote
,.........however, all the pumping-up in the world will not help unless you have the skills, and as we continuously see, even very intelligent people struggle in the financial markets.[/I]
...................................................................................................................................

You don't need to be intelligent to make it in the financial markets. I have had ex .taxi ex shop keepers , trade next to me. In the USA also I had very intelligent people trade next to me. Although there may be a few intelligent trading on the floor, most good traders are not all that smart

I don't have an outstanding I. Q so I know it. does not take extraordinary brains to make money. The secret of the game is recognising the truth and acting on it. And you don't have to be intelligent to do that.

CJ
 
JumpOff said:
This is very confusing to me. You play golf, and expect to shoot 90+. You know you will porbably have to record 9 bogeys and 7 double bogies. At the end of each golf game, your score card still shows 90+ strokes, right? So even if you occasionally get an eagle or a hole in one, there's no chance you would confuse yourself with a pro, right?

Why is this any different than the market score card, which is your account? At the end of each day (week, month) it either went up or down. If its not in line with what you expected, how can a trader not understand that they don't have a grip on things?

I paper trade because every d*mn week my account is still about where it was. I'm not losing much anymore, but I'm not gaining yet either. I have no belief that success is only just around the corner. There is no reason for me to suppose this until my account goes up consistently. I have no expectancy. Even if I were to have a couple of big gainers, unless that was part of my outlined plan, I would have to look at it the same way you would a hole in one. -it's just an anomaly - doesn't mean I've suddenly learned how to trade successfully.

JO

If everybody were like you and did what you are doing there would be less grief from all of this. Paper trading is crucial because it shows you without it costing you anything except time what your real results are versus your efforts. When your efforts begin to give you the consistent results you seek, only then should you begin to consider to go live.

Another benefit of paper trading is that you give yourself the opportunity again without it costing you anything but time, to observe the different phases of market development.

Don't forget, if you are busy trading you are not learning, because your focus is not on learning but on trying to make money. You can only make money (consistently) when you have learnt, that is why paper trading is so important.

Later on, in this thread I am going to give a list of all the attributes that make people fail.
This is as a consequence of my observations of people types over the years, backed up by my experience, which is considerable.
 
cj12 said:
[duc998
I]Quote
,.........however, all the pumping-up in the world will not help unless you have the skills, and as we continuously see, even very intelligent people struggle in the financial markets.[/I]
...................................................................................................................................

You don't need to be intelligent to make it in the financial markets. I have had ex .taxi ex shop keepers , trade next to me. In the USA also I had very intelligent people trade next to me. Although there may be a few intelligent trading on the floor, most good traders are not all that smart

I don't have an outstanding I. Q so I know it. does not take extraordinary brains to make money. The secret of the game is recognising the truth and acting on it. And you don't have to be intelligent to do that.

CJ
I agree completely with what you say here.

I will add more to it in due course.
 
cj12,

You don't need to be intelligent to make it in the financial markets. I have had ex .taxi ex shop keepers , trade next to me. In the USA also I had very intelligent people trade next to me. Although there may be a few intelligent trading on the floor, most good traders are not all that smart

You are assuming that I would classify so called blue collar workers as unintelligent, which I would not. Intelligence is correlated to study, but this can be self study, self education, there is no requirement for a piece of paper, or initials after your name.

What I do reiterate however is, stupid people will never make consistent and retainable money from the financial markets.
Now as to floor traders, the system will provide a certain structual advantage anyway, plus role models of successful traders to emulate, thus reducing the individual study required to find and execute a methodology.

JO,

Why is this any different than the market score card, which is your account? At the end of each day (week, month) it either went up or down. If its not in line with what you expected, how can a trader not understand that they don't have a grip on things?

You would think so. I guess it's the mindset that says great offense wins games, as opposed to the mindset, great defence wins games. Great defence requires patience, and recognition of the mistake when it arrives.
Many need to lose on offense before they become risk averse, and switch to defence.
You obviously are already risk averse, which will place you a long way in front when you place money in the market.

My golf analogy was simply to illustrate the gambling phenomenon of, a win, possibly a big win, providing such an adreneline rush, that all the losses are forgotten, as now you have the secret............like my golf swing, every now and then 1 or 2 good shots convince me that I am making progress, and bring me back for more humiliation next week.

cheers d998
 
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