rockseller
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Some of us appreciate a lot what laptop1 is doing. Please ask him if you have valid questions regarding this topic discussed. If you wanna challenge him do it with your action by trading live.
It just not smart to interrupt excellent thread for no particular good reason.
By the way laptop1 don't get discouraged keep up your good work. I am looking forward to learn more from your upcoming thread.
It just not smart to interrupt excellent thread for no particular good reason.
By the way laptop1 don't get discouraged keep up your good work. I am looking forward to learn more from your upcoming thread.
29Investments
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Laptop I'm thinking (hoping) we might see a top here. Would appreciate your thoughts ?
Cheers
Cheers
Slapshot
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Chocolate said:
I agree.
Looking at the YM, the last hourly bar to have painted was very wide (diff between the high & low) and the volume was very very high, and yet the bar closed on it's lows. If all that volume was buying pressure it would have closed around the highs.
IMO This up rally from the beginning of march is getting overcooked and due a pull back.
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Slapshot
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Chocolate said:
Yes it certainly could be and looking at the bar & volume in isolation could confirm that.
However, take that volume into account and the action of the bar itself compared to bars at a similar time over the previous days and the picture is different.
Next few days are gong to be interesting
I am going to start a new thread soon trading the Russell 2000 ER2 Futures. I will give 1 or 2 trades a day. I be looking to trade from 1pm to 3.00pm GMT time. I be trading 5 lots scaling in to a 10 lot trade.
I do not want to lose no more than $750 on any one trade, my profit target will be $2300.
The correct way to trade in my opinion, is to scale in to a trade. when I'm wrong I want to be wrong (small) when im correct I want to be correct (Big) with my max on.
I know most traders put the max on and scale out if the market goes they way, but what if the market moves against them as soon as they place the trade. Trading like this, when wrong you are wrong with you maximum bet, but when you are correct you have less on than when you started.
Before I start the thread lets start a decision based on scaling in or out of a trade and what do you think is the correct way to trade. It will be intresing to see.
The way I trade I can be wrong 100 times and be right only 33 times and come out break-even or I only need to be correct 40% if the time and make money. However, my strike rate is more like 70%. This is only trading on average 1 hour a day. Let the discussion begin
I do not want to lose no more than $750 on any one trade, my profit target will be $2300.
The correct way to trade in my opinion, is to scale in to a trade. when I'm wrong I want to be wrong (small) when im correct I want to be correct (Big) with my max on.
I know most traders put the max on and scale out if the market goes they way, but what if the market moves against them as soon as they place the trade. Trading like this, when wrong you are wrong with you maximum bet, but when you are correct you have less on than when you started.
Before I start the thread lets start a decision based on scaling in or out of a trade and what do you think is the correct way to trade. It will be intresing to see.
The way I trade I can be wrong 100 times and be right only 33 times and come out break-even or I only need to be correct 40% if the time and make money. However, my strike rate is more like 70%. This is only trading on average 1 hour a day. Let the discussion begin
Windowsill
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For 16 months until November last year I ran a fairly random position taking on the Dow at 4pm each day. This was either closed at 9pm or left to run to the following day depending on exactly how much was won/lost. No position ran for more than 2 days therefore I had discrete periods which enabled such exercises as yours above to be carried out and do "what ifs" to the Nth degree!! So for clarification I had the open figure ( 4PM), the Close & High and low for each day.
The whole exercise was recorded on a spreadsheet using Capitalspreads actual figures and allowing for costs etc.
And so to the punchline.
Statistically it was always better to open with an amount and let the whole amount run to the close. However a smoother equity curve was made by taking profits at 100pts. Scaling in or out did not work. However this was a very mechanical system and I my discretionary trading is in its infancy, so i have not established how to work it, to say, if it works out or not.
I feel instinctively that its not easy!
If anyones interested, it was also over the period better to take profits at the end of day one, that were 75pts or more than let them run over to day 2.
If one had an 80 point stop with £1 pound bet it made a profit. However if one bet 16 points with a 5 point stop you didn't win very often but it was far more profitable!!!!!!!
Socrates makes another valid point here.
For trading purposes I feel this type of discussion is useful for new traders to get a statistical handle on an instrument and to have some expectations of an outcome before placing a trade. Time perods and stops are the most important elements of trading in my opinion. To date!!
The whole exercise was recorded on a spreadsheet using Capitalspreads actual figures and allowing for costs etc.
And so to the punchline.
Statistically it was always better to open with an amount and let the whole amount run to the close. However a smoother equity curve was made by taking profits at 100pts. Scaling in or out did not work. However this was a very mechanical system and I my discretionary trading is in its infancy, so i have not established how to work it, to say, if it works out or not.
I feel instinctively that its not easy!
If anyones interested, it was also over the period better to take profits at the end of day one, that were 75pts or more than let them run over to day 2.
If one had an 80 point stop with £1 pound bet it made a profit. However if one bet 16 points with a 5 point stop you didn't win very often but it was far more profitable!!!!!!!
Socrates makes another valid point here.
For trading purposes I feel this type of discussion is useful for new traders to get a statistical handle on an instrument and to have some expectations of an outcome before placing a trade. Time perods and stops are the most important elements of trading in my opinion. To date!!
Pat494
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laptop1 said:
Please excuse my ignorance of lots. Could you please restate what you are about to try to do in points e.g.at £1 per point and up to double that - in this instance £2 per point. with a profit target of how many ( Dow ) points and a stop loss of how many points ?
Popeye Doyle
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Hey Laptop, where did you go?
firewalker99
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Let me know when you start Russell 2000; I think it's a very interesting market!
As for scaling in, I don't do it because I don't hold on to my positions long enough. I believe scaling in might be a good strategy if you are trading overnight or have positions on a longer timeframe.
I usually get in quite early in a rather aggressive trade with stops close so if I'm wrong I can get out in time. So each time I would add to my position along the way, it would mean I'm in at an already "worse" time than the original entry... Therefore I prefer to scale out my first half when my first target is hit and then move my stop to breakeven so I basically have a free trade.
But scaling out isn't necessarily the best strategy as I've been analyzing my own results and at times I can be profitable just to exit your position at once on your second target.
I'm still around
I scale in on a small time frame, I can be in a trade from 10 mins to up to 2 hours. The reason I scale in is, when I'm wrong I am wrong small, but when I'm right on the move I'm right BIG. I don't mind taking lots of small losses, because this big wins will always take care of the losses, my aim is to protect my account first..…I should say the trades on this thread are based on an old method I used to trade years back to see if it still works, the only trouble. stops are to big.
I let you know when I post some live calls up, not sure what best to do, this thread would be to slow, think I would need a live chat room we see, anyway with regards to only scaling out, if you are wrong on entry you are wrong with you max on, when you are right on the move you have less on...I think its a matter of preference, some find it hard to scale in, most find it easy to scale out, but as long as you are profitable it does not matter, there is no right or wrong way to trade, as long as you cut your losses.… Most lose, because they tern a day trade in a position trade, we have all done it over the years. I've seen traders hold a position for days or weeks, because they refused to get out when the market went against them 20 pips or so. and they end up holding to a 200 points loss becuse they refused to take the small loss, I have learned to like taking losses, I know over time it will keep me in the game.what markets do you trade firewalker?
firewalker99
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I have a main interest in DAX, but also look at CAC40, FTSE and the e-minis (with preference to DOW and Russell 2000).
I think ER2 has a better daily range and average volatility in comparison to the margin requirements of other markets so you can gain more percentagewise (or lose more obviously).
