Keeping track of deltas

[SOCRATES]

soc...ehhh, sorry, missing why i need your respect?im sorry but i have to laugh at people who say stuff like that.try sniffing air for a change hmmmm???

im not a gambling punter like you guys. i do, however, t-r-a-d-e. you might try it sometime yourself hmmmm?

a one off punt with bullsh++ is as much use as a chocolate fireguard. you can rant off all you like too its great amusement for everyone reading these posts.

like i said soc, you make a comfy sofa. any chance of a side light though?

bullsh++......have you ever tried options trading? you know, one vol against another, buidling a book of posns up in lots of strikes and trading the book so that as the market moves, your book takes on a different perspective? or do you just make a fone call to your lover the broker, sell 2 lots of an otm and then dash for the bunker if? you see, by trading options, its gives you so many different levels to play the game outside fire and hope....or are you too old and bust to change your ways? maybe soc will back you if you've got too badly hurt this last fall...hmmmm?

oh um, 24 and counting.....

Sadly for you, a glass wall separates us. You obviously are most unlikely to be able to cross it at all, and I am not giving up my advantage to do you any favours, I am very sorry to have to tell you. It is best if you remain exactly where you are.

 

[Pitscum]

Sadly for you, a glass wall separates us. You obviously are most unlikely to be able to cross it at all, and I am not giving up my advantage to do you any favours, I am very sorry to have to tell you. It is best if you remain exactly where you are.

can someone translate please?

 

[RUDEBOY]

O.K., Pit, i will be totally truthful here. I don't trade options. I should have kept my big mouth shut (for once). What i do know about option strategies is that they range from the most basic to Nobel prize winning stuff. However an individual wants to trade them is up to them. I don't like using this kind of statement, it's too easy, but unfortunately it's the truth.

 

[SOCRATES]

can someone translate please?

Take it as read, Pitscum. If you understand it good for you, and if you don't ....tough !
That's all.

But I am sure that at a subliminal level you do understand it. very well indeed.

 

[SOCRATES]

Hello Peeps,

Sorry folks i've tried my best to get those 2 monkeys to accept my wager on the selfimposed ban! but it looks like this forum and Admin will be stuck wiv these sort of monkeys that have NOTHING to offer or of benefit to the members or viewers . :cheesy: they wont even tell you what trade they did! even when asked several times! They are gifted in rediculing other peeps trades and when proved wrong they still want to be applauded and remain on the forum! They have NO self respect , dignity or shame at all!! Most decent peeps if they are wrong they appologise or just dissapear cause thier pride is hurt! but not these guys! they will remain here as long as possible until all the decent peeps have left. At the moment i would say there are more monkeys on this forum then on any other I've come accross.

Roll on the 18th :cheesy:

Bull

Bully, you have proved your point without question.

..........................CARDBOARD !!..............................

Now turn your attention to worthwhile things, please.

 

[Profitaker]

That you should be so lucky may an onion grow inside your head god forbid.

You get worse !

Dear dear, The only way to settle this debate, is post a live trade whether it be options or futures.We then see who the real traders are.

That wouldn’t settle anything. My point is that selling DOTM puts is a high risk strategy for not much return. To the misguided soles (like Bulldozer) and novices it looks like money for old rope – but it’s not. The risks taken on the short side are worth every single penny of the premium.


Posted 28/10/05……

Nov ESX (Spot 5176, Forward 5174)

5075 Puts, 36 mid
IV 15.4%
Delta -0.29
Gamma 0.00186
Theta £ 16 / Day
Vega £ 44 / 1% IV
SPAN Margin £ 1210

Actually, now that they’re nearer the money, now that they’re nearer to expiry day, now that Vega risk has reduced, now that leverage has reduced, now that margin has eased, now that IV has risen more than 50% in 3 weeks, and now that the option price more than tripled, well actually, NOW they ain’t too bad a risk for shorting !

The above would have been a reasonable short Put trade.

Let’s do a quick review of Mr. Bulldozer’s spectacular trade shall we ? Below is the data at the close last night.

Nov ESX (Spot 5317, Forward 5316)

5075 Puts, 10 mid
IV 16.4%
Delta -0.10
Gamma 0.000923
Theta £ 10 / Day
Vega £ 20 / 1% IV
SPAN Margin £ 595


Delta has dropped, mainly due to rising spot, partly due to the passage of time. If the delta is a reasonable approximation of an option expiring OTM then there is a 90% chance (1 – 0.10) of the 5075’s expiring worthless. Sure, there is now a high probability of profit, but as always the higher the probability of profit of a trade, the smaller the potential profit in percentage terms (10p to be exact).

Leverage has now increased as time to expiry has reduced and the option has gone further OTM. A 100 point index drop before Friday would see those options double in value. BUT that doesn’t consider IV going through the roof as hedgers and speculators buy Puts by the bucket load, and writers desperately try to buy back their short Puts. If the index dropped by 100 points (that’s less than 2 Standard Deviations) come Friday and IV doubled to 33% those Puts would be worth 70p – that’s leverage for you. Events like that happen quite frequently. Now, who here would want to take on that risk for 10p ?

As for time decay, most of that has already happened in the 5075’s – OTM has thin tails, it's ATM (with it's fat tails) where you want to be.

Will he make a profit ? Almost certainly.
Was it a good trade considering the risks ?, Not even close !

 

[bulldozer]

You get worse !

That wouldn’t settle anything. My point is that selling DOTM puts is a high risk strategy for not much return. To the misguided soles (like Bulldozer) and novices it looks like money for old rope – but it’s not. The risks taken on the short side are worth every single penny of the premium.


Posted 28/10/05……




The above would have been a reasonable short Put trade.

Let’s do a quick review of Mr. Bulldozer’s spectacular trade shall we ? Below is the data at the close last night.

Nov ESX (Spot 5317, Forward 5316)

5075 Puts, 10 mid
IV 16.4%
Delta -0.10
Gamma 0.000923
Theta £ 10 / Day
Vega £ 20 / 1% IV
SPAN Margin £ 595


Delta has dropped, mainly due to rising spot, partly due to the passage of time. If the delta is a reasonable approximation of an option expiring OTM then there is a 90% chance (1 – 0.10) of the 5075’s expiring worthless. Sure, there is now a high probability of profit, but as always the higher the probability of profit of a trade, the smaller the potential profit in percentage terms (10p to be exact).

Leverage has now increased as time to expiry has reduced and the option has gone further OTM. A 100 point index drop before Friday would see those options double in value. BUT that doesn’t consider IV going through the roof as hedgers and speculators buy Puts by the bucket load, and writers desperately try to buy back their short Puts. If the index dropped by 100 points (that’s less than 2 Standard Deviations) come Friday and IV doubled to 33% those Puts would be worth 70p – that’s leverage for you. Events like that happen quite frequently. Now, who here would want to take on that risk for 10p ?

As for time decay, most of that has already happened in the 5075’s – OTM has thin tails, it's ATM (with it's fat tails) where you want to be.

Will he make a profit ? Almost certainly.
Was it a good trade considering the risks ?, Not even close !

================================================================

Bottom line is: PROFITS NOT LOSSES!! :cheesy:

Bulldozer made a profit!! from 26 and 32 and also soon from the 10 pts!! :cheesy:

Keep your EYES on the "THETA" and SEE with your own eyes how bulldozer tracks the "THETA" to bring the 5075 PUTS to ZERO!! :cheesy: EVEN IF FOOTSIE DROPS BY 100 -200 PTS LEADING TO EXPIRY DAY!!! :cheesy:



MICE or Monkeys or Copouts that mess with the BULL is at their peril!!! :cheesy: When the BULLDOZER is close it is prudent that MICE and Monkeys and Copouts step aside or they risk being FLATENED! :cheesy:

Bull

 

[Bigbusiness]

Anyone remeber TBS? He used to post here but moved to www.thetradepit.com

I remember he used to be an options writer and seemed to be making good money from it. I don't think it would suit me, as I wouldn't like the few times when the buyers get lucky. I know it can't happen that often but I still don't like parting with large amounts of money. For those that can handle that, I am sure it must be a good way to make money.

 

[bulldozer]

Anyone remeber TBS? He used to post here but moved to www.thetradepit.com

I remember he used to be an options writer and seemed to be making good money from it. I don't think it would suit me, as I wouldn't like the few times when the buyers get lucky. I know it can't happen that often but I still don't like parting with large amounts of money. For those that can handle that, I am sure it must be a good way to make money.

====================================================================

Hello BB,

Its good to see you again, how you doin? Doin fine my end

A good Option seller is like a bookie he knows what trades to take on. He also knows how to hedge if he needs too. [bookies do it all the time and SB companies do it too] If you go long on SB and you hold positions for 2-4 weeks and your 200+ in profits does the SB firm lose when you close that trade and take profits? of cause NOT! but he will pay your winnings for sure! [ wiv a smile] where he gets the money to pay you does not make it your concern does it? Your happy so long as that SB company pays your winnings. :cheesy:
Same here we [the writers] are more than happy to pay up! Why? cause it does NOT come out from my account .
Today i did some short [ wrote ] the 5425 CALLS on NOV footsie and recieved good premiums. I'll be more than happy to pay up if positions go ITM . :cheesy:

Writers always pay when the other end wins!! thats why they are a rare breed! they have somethin the buyers dont have! > Brains in the right place, Knowledge of the DELTAS/THETA , good brokers wiv good rules that suited to writers, Big pot, and most importantly HEDGE! and all of that combination put together = EDGE and PROFITS and smile too :cheesy:

Happy trading

Bull

 

[SOCRATES]

====================================================================

Hello BB,

Its good to see you again, how you doin? Doin fine my end

A good Option seller is like a bookie he knows what trades to take on. He also knows how to hedge if he needs too. [bookies do it all the time and SB companies do it too] If you go long on SB and you hold positions for 2-4 weeks and your 200+ in profits does the SB firm lose when you close that trade and take profits? of cause NOT! but he will pay your winnings for sure! [ wiv a smile] where he gets the money to pay you does not make it your concern does it? Your happy so long as that SB company pays your winnings. :cheesy:
Same here we [the writers] are more than happy to pay up! Why? cause it does NOT come out from my account .
Today i did some short [ wrote ] the 5425 CALLS on NOV footsie and recieved good premiums. I'll be more than happy to pay up if positions go ITM . :cheesy:

Writers always pay when the other end wins!! thats why they are a rare breed! they have somethin the buyers dont have! > Brains in the right place, Knowledge of the DELTAS/THETA , good brokers wiv good rules that suited to writers, Big pot, and most importantly HEDGE! and all of that combination put together = EDGE and PROFITS and smile too :cheesy:

Happy trading

Bull

Bully, I love the way you explain the unexplainable to the audience.

Absolutely superb !

My Compliments to you Bully, well done !....

 

[bulldozer]

=================================================================
Badtrader, Soc, Rboy,

I'll give you guy's a wager that you will NOT see any posts from the famous and well known MICE/Monkeys/Copouts on Option strategies or strategies that show worthwhile profits this side of Xmas or the other side of Xmas :cheesy:

Bull
Keep focused / tracking on those Nov's 5075 puts price.

Soc,

Here is a small example of my style below!

If you decide to take my offer of the wager on those MICE?[ post 257] I'll hedge it by doing the trade also and dont tell you that i did it!! :cheesy: So if in case you win and the MICE do put on a winning trade? I'll be more than happy to pay you! Why? cause i've done the winning trade too! So i'll pay you from the winnings and if there is NO winnings than i win from your wager to me! to offset my loss! :cheesy:

I'll arrange the whole thing [by using an once of wisdom] that whatever happens!! I'll be in profit by at least 10% :cheesy:

Bull

 

[SOCRATES]

Soc,

Here is a small example of my style below!

If you decide to take my offer of the wager on those MICE?[ post 257] I'll hedge it by doing the trade also and dont tell you that i did it!! :cheesy: So if in case you win and the MICE do put on a winning trade? I'll be more than happy to pay you! Why? cause i've done the winning trade too! So i'll pay you from the winnings and if there is NO winnings than i win from your wager to me! to offset my loss! :cheesy:

Bull

I have a better idea, Bully.

You are invited as a guest to the next Wizards' Lunch. I will send you details by PM as to venue and date, etc.,

You will find the fare delicious and the company absolutely superb, absolutely top drawer, as these are experiences money cannot buy, and to be shared by like minded people and away from the glare of monkey business

 

[Bigbusiness]

====================================================================

Hello BB,

Its good to see you again, how you doin? Doin fine my end
Bull

My end is doing fine as well Bull

I still prefer a bit of day trading to options trading but I do remember that when I tried covered calls, I made money from the options buyers every time. Not so sure about going naked though

 

[bulldozer]

My end is doing fine as well Bull

I still prefer a bit of day trading to options trading but I do remember that when I tried covered calls, I made money from the options buyers every time. Not so sure about going naked though

BB,

Theres nothing wrong going naked! :cheesy: If you are more than 85% percent sure its NOTgoing to rain or snow while positions are running! Plus you have a "hedge" at the ready incase its needed! :cheesy:

And always remember this!!! Without writers the WHOLE thing comes to a HALT! :cheesy:

Bull

 

[bulldozer]

I have a better idea, Bully.

You are invited as a guest to the next Wizards' Lunch. I will send you details by PM as to venue and date, etc.,

You will find the fare delicious and the company absolutely superb, absolutely top drawer, as these are experiences money cannot buy, and to be shared by like minded people and away from the glare of monkey business

Soc,
Its sounds interesting! I'm lookin forward to the invite.
I just hope there isn't any MICE or Copouts at the meeting!? :cheesy: Know what I mean? :cheesy:

Talking of mice where have they gone? Perhaps their working on a superb winning option trade?
Bull

 

[SOCRATES]

Soc,
Its sounds interesting! I'm lookin forward to the invite.
I just hope there isn't any MICE or Copouts at the meeting!? :cheesy: Know what I mean? :cheesy:

Bull

Hello Bully, I promise you there will be no mice or other creatures , although already some nuisances are trying to get admitted, does it surprise you ? In any event you will enjoy it very much, that's for certain. I will PM you in due course, and we are very pleased you accept.

 

[bulldozer]

Hello Bully, I promise you there will be no mice or other creatures , although already some nuisances are trying to get admitted, does it surprise you ? In any event you will enjoy it very much, that's for certain. I will PM you in due course, and we are very pleased you accept.

Soc,
I hope you'll explain who "WE" are on the PM too?

Talking of mice where have they gone? Perhaps their working on a superb winning option trade? Cant wait!


Bull

 

[SOCRATES]

Soc,
I hope you'll explain who "WE" are on the PM too?

Bull

Yes.

 

[bulldozer]

Soc,

Whats taking those 2 mice or Copouts to present their winning Option formula?

It would NOT surprise me one bit if they came back wiv some 4 leg positions ie Butterflies or Condors etc :cheesy: and confuse MORE than 90 % of the audiance Cant wait :cheesy:

Bull

 

[Spam Man]

T2W appears to have taken a turn for the strange. Is it now a gay dating site or something?

GET A ROOM, LOVEBIRDS!