Keeping track of deltas

[bulldozer]

T2W appears to have taken a turn for the strange. Is it now a gay dating site or something?

GET A ROOM, LOVEBIRDS!

Hello Spam,

Theres only one way to find out? Would you like an invite?
I'm sure Soc can arrange another ticket! I love mysteries dont you?

I have NO problems with gays or Lisbo's! they never get anywhere wiv me anyway!

Bull

Yesterday is history Tomrrow is a mystery Today is a GIFT hence called PRESENT. :cheesy:

 

[Profitaker]

I have a better idea, Bully.

You are invited as a guest to the next Wizards' Lunch. I will send you details by PM as to venue and date, etc.,

You will find the fare delicious and the company absolutely superb, absolutely top drawer, as these are experiences money cannot buy, and to be shared by like minded people and away from the glare of monkey business

Brilliant !

Keep it up and I might start to like you LOL

 

[Spam Man]

Would you like an invite?

I'd love to come, but sadly I've got a prior engagement at an Elf's Tea Party.

 

[bulldozer]

I'd love to come, but sadly I've got a prior engagement at an Elf's Tea Party.

But you dont know the date yet? unless your name is Paul Daniels or Uri Geller? :cheesy:

 

[Bigbusiness]

I have NO problems with gays or Lisbo's! they never get anywhere wiv me anyway!

Bull

I thought your two friends weren't that keen on them. Thou shalt not shirt lift or fudge pack and all that. Not that I have anything against them. Each to their own

 

[bulldozer]

Soc,

How would you like an EVENS bet ? That the 2 mice /Copouts will NOT come up wiv a Option strategy that makes worthwhile profits after all fees/costs been detucted before Xmas.
Take your pick From $1,000 to $10,000 EVENS You have only 48 hours to accept my generous offer!1 Plz make your decision known on the boards for all to see. One condition though is that i must see the trade first before the deal is sealed. If i feel the trade has less than 50 % of success I may offer you better odds.

Bull

 

[bulldozer]

Soc,

The closing price for that NOV 5075 PUTS is now 7.5 mid Dont you just love how the "THETA" eats into those prices leading to expiry :cheesy:

Bull

 

[Profitaker]

Dont you just love how the "THETA" eats into those prices leading to expiry

I think you'll find it was the spot movement that did it.

Tell me, what is the daily theta on those options now ?

LOL

 

[frugi]

Bull,

All that writing and still no book?

This might be up your street

GOOG Mar 2006 350 puts are currently on sale for $18.30.

In the interests of fun and possibly charity, might you be able to offer me a BETTER price, kind sir, say perhaps a round $18 for ease of calculation? :?: :?: ... if so I would like to buy one from you. :-0 Premium at a discount, if you like.

I can send monies by Paypal for your convenience and my satisfaction (say a 1/100th of full size, or I might be accused of taking this seriously )

They've got Property of Bull written all over them, I'd say: they're well out of the money AND drenched with lashings of lovely time value to decay - at whose expense? MY expense, of course. :cheesy: :cheesy: $18 of fat juicy premium, straight into your pocket. Consider it a donation to a charity of your choice.

Please good Bull, don't pass up this SUPERB opportunity for you to offload a delightful wasting asset onto another SILLY blind mouse. Remember I gamble in vega, eat gamma with pineapple and watch plays in the theta ... a sitting duck, or is that wodent?

PS :cheesy: This isn't in any way a challenge I merely saw a chance to use the excellent Bulldozer price improver market-making service and seized it with my sharp teeth. :

PPS Though it probably sounds churlish, I must reserve the right to sell it back to you at any time before expiry (at market bid price minus the original discount), if by any scintilla of an iota of a minuscule chance it becomes worth more than I paid you for it :cheesy: :cheesy: In turn I will donate the original premium + 20% of any profit to charity.

What say you?

 

[bulldozer]

I think you'll find it was the spot movement that did it.

Tell me, what is the daily theta on those options now ?

LOL

Hello Mr $100, 000mouse or is it Mr Copout :cheesy:

Tell me/us, has that price [ Nov 5075 put] gone below 10 pts according to your calculations?

Tell me/us, When are you going to show that your vessell is not empty like mine and put on a trade? before we all get tired of waiting! Its worse than waiting for paint to dry.

Tell me/us, when are you planning to start the year ban? You still have nothing of interest to show us. When do you fink we will see some real meat on your posts if your not planning on the ban?

Tell me/us, how long does it normally take you to decide to put an Option trade wiv your broker ? is it days or weeks or centuries? :cheesy:

Tell me /us, Are you keeping an eye on the DEC's SHORT puts? Cause the Nov's 5075 are heading for ZERO value expiry shortly

Tell me/us, How long are you planning to amaze us all wiv your brilliant knowledge and talent of the contents of your above post? :cheesy:

Tell me/us, Is your side kick [Mr Scum] still helping you out trying to work out a trade to amaze all the viewers?and amaze myself and SOC :cheesy: So when do you fink it will ready to put out on these boards?

Bull

 

[bulldozer]

Bull,

All that writing and still no book?

This might be up your street

GOOG Mar 2006 350 puts are currently on sale for $18.30.

In the interests of fun and possibly charity, might you be able to offer me a BETTER price, kind sir, say perhaps a round $18 for ease of calculation? :?: :?: ... if so I would like to buy one from you. :-0 Premium at a discount, if you like.

I can send monies by Paypal for your convenience and my satisfaction (say a 1/100th of full size, or I might be accused of taking this seriously )

They've got Property of Bull written all over them, I'd say: they're well out of the money AND drenched with lashings of lovely time value to decay - at whose expense? MY expense, of course. :cheesy: :cheesy: $18 of fat juicy premium, straight into your pocket. Consider it a donation to a charity of your choice.

Please good Bull, don't pass up this SUPERB opportunity for you to offload a delightful wasting asset onto another SILLY blind mouse. Remember I gamble in vega, eat gamma with pineapple and watch plays in the theta ... a sitting duck, or is that wodent?

PS :cheesy: This isn't in any way a challenge I merely saw a chance to use the excellent Bulldozer price improver market-making service and seized it with my sharp teeth. :

PPS Though it probably sounds churlish, I must reserve the right to sell it back to you at any time before expiry (at market bid price minus the original discount), if by any scintilla of an iota of a minuscule chance it becomes worth more than I paid you for it :cheesy: :cheesy: In turn I will donate the original premium + 20% of any profit to charity.

What say you?

================================================================


WOW! WHATS ALL THIS NOISE? from a Forum moderator too
How did this cute little Gold fish end up in the middle of the INDIAN ocean?amongs all the SHARKS

I normally dont reply to posts like these until i recieve the 3rd post.
Sorry thats just one of my rules, I can asure you i have a good reason for these types of rules.
I'm a dissaplined Option writer and every thing has to be right before i make my move!

So you need to come down to my rules SIR! PLZ

I look forward to your next 2 posts. And i will assure you i will reply to you more fully.

Rgrds

Bull
Monkeys or MICE that mess with BULLS always end up getting BOTH HORNS! Like i said many times before>> In most cases its sooner rather than latter! and also plz remember BULLS dont have BREAKS they cant stop! if a monkey or mouse happens to be in his path especialy when he is doing over 20 mph! :cheesy: its curtains for the little creatures

 

[Pitscum]

some one stuck some research past my nose today:

armed with data going back to 1993, so avoiding some big events just prior to this date it threw up some interesting numbers:

by calculating the ftse's third std deviation on every new options cycle and selling a put spd and call spd simultaniously at those points, your return, annualised and up to the current date would be a shade under 6.5%. this was also employing 10% of your capital as chips at the table.therefore, because u had only sold a c/s and a p/s , your p/l was identifiable.

however, naked options writing during the same period returned an overall loss of capital in excess of 90%: this did assume you also closed down the postions the minute they were atm (if you had a chance)

other interesting figures that arose: yes, short premium players win 90% of the time but on the 10% times that they do lose, their scale of loss is frequently in excess of 500% to the profit they assumed to make.

events that can cause such catostrophic loses occur at least at odds of 10-1. although most years produce a likelyhood of 5-1(therefore two major events a year).

so. brag all you like, bullsh++, you havent made the money you'd love everyone to believe you made and infact, have probably lost a lot of other peoples money along the way........ho hum.

 

[Profitaker]

Frugi - LOL

Pits,

Interesting numbers. I’m just wondering why they looked at trading 3 Standard Deviations away. I would have thought that if you looked at trading 2 or 1 StDev’s away the covered writes Vs naked writes P&L would be closer aligned. Also, to exit the naked write following a 3 x StDev move where the IV has just gone ballistic might not be the best strategy. Probably better off hedging direction in the underlying and waiting for vol to ease. Interesting numbers all the same.

Bulldozer,

Can you give me odds of the Dec 5025 Puts expiring worthless please ? On the subject of worthless and your 90% theory, check out the facts http://www.cboe.com/LearnCenter/cboeeducation/Course_01_03/mod_03_02.aspx

That’s from the CBOE, though I’m sure you’ll still argue. LOL

 

[bulldozer]

Frugi - LOL

Pits,

Interesting numbers. I’m just wondering why they looked at trading 3 Standard Deviations away. I would have thought that if you looked at trading 2 or 1 StDev’s away the covered writes Vs naked writes P&L would be closer aligned. Also, to exit the naked write following a 3 x StDev move where the IV has just gone ballistic might not be the best strategy. Probably better off hedging direction in the underlying and waiting for vol to ease. Interesting numbers all the same.

Bulldozer,

Can you give me odds of the Dec 5025 Puts expiring worthless please ? On the subject of worthless and your 90% theory, check out the facts http://www.cboe.com/LearnCenter/cboeeducation/Course_01_03/mod_03_02.aspx

That’s from the CBOE, though I’m sure you’ll still argue. LOL

Hello
Mr $100,000Mouse, Mr Profitlooser, Mr CopoutMouse,

Your vessell is very FULL wiv info and trades we the viewers cant cope wiv it all :cheesy: When do you fink you will be showing the audience your next winning trade on options? How much longer do they need to wait?

Now you want to talk on MY TRADE the Short Dec 5025 puts?! :cheesy: and you want me to prove to you again that i will make a profit on those juicy 18 pts premiums [now showing around 25 mid price] And if i win? and prove you wrong again will you get off the forum for one year? or 2 yrs? and be a MAN INSTEAD OF A MOUSE! :cheesy: for once! :cheesy:

I am NOT the CBOE and the CBOE are NOT ME!! The CBOE dont know which trades i write or the underline i write on! or the strike or the month i write on! or the STYLE [american or EU STYLE] the CBOE dont know my "HEDGE!" or my "EDGE"! the CBOE dont KNOW how i transfer a bad loosing trade to another player! Do i need to tell you more on the CBOE? :cheesy:

NOW, Mr BIGSHOT do you want the wager on the DEC's 5025 SHORT PUTS? and just to add one more thing ! > I WILL MAKE A PROFIT ON THE SHORTS PUTS AT THESE PRESENT LEVEL OF 25 AND SEE THE POSITION REDUCE TOWARD ZERO = BUYER LOOSE AND ME THE WRITER WIN AGAIN! YOU HAVE UNTIL SUNSET TO ACCEPT THE WAGER! :cheesy: if i dont make a PROFIT on the 25 or the 18 pts premium i will get off this forum for 10 yrs! you have a MANS word on it NOT a MOUSE!!

THIS OFFER IS ALSO TO Mr Goldfish [frugi] and Mr Scum too :cheesy:


RGDS

THE MALTESE BULL

 

[Profitaker]

The CBOE dont know which trades i write or the underline i write on! or the strike or the month i write on!

No, but they know precisely what percentage of options expire worthless, which is more than you do, old bean. You even argue with CBOE data - you really are priceless LOL

NOW, Mr BIGSHOT do you want the wager on the DEC's 5025 SHORT PUTS?

What odds are you giving, and what's the maximum bet size you'll accept ?

 

[bulldozer]

No, but they know precisely what percentage of options expire worthless, which is more than you do, old bean. You even argue with CBOE data - you really are priceless LOL

What odds are you giving, and what's the maximum bet size you'll accept ?

Mr Profitlooooser, Mr Million$$$$$$$Mouse,

Read my post again! Max bet is MY 10 yrs against your 2 yrs :cheesy:

Are the data on CBOE on my tradesand style ?????? :cheesy:

I dont work for the CBOE and the CBOE DONT WORK FOR ME EITHER!!

So when are you going to show us your opening trade on OPTIONS?????

rgrds

Maltese BULL

 

[Bigbusiness]

I don't understand Profitaker's logic. It can't be that hard for bulldozer to write the 30% of options that expire worthless. Even if he can't do that, he can use a strategy to reduce or eliminate the loss. Other people do it, so I don't see why bulldozer can't.

 

[Profitaker]

I don't understand Profitaker's logic. It can't be that hard for bulldozer to write the 30% of options that expire worthless.

He actually thinks that 90% expire worthless, but let him have those thoughts. Anyway, could you tell me which 30% will expire worthless in December ?

Even if he can't do that, he can use a strategy to reduce or eliminate the loss.

Sure you can, but only by reducing potential profits - there is no free lunch.

Other people do it, so I don't see why bulldozer can't.

I didn't say he couldn't. In fact anyone can write options, you just whistle up your broker and give him the order.

I have made two points during this debate which haven't changed (despite being destracted by drivel from cloth ears above)....

1) Selling DOTM puts, in sufficient quantities so as to give a reasonable return on capital, is a very high risk strategy. Most of the time you pocket a small amount, but the sharp moves can, and often do, wipe you out.

2) Option writers do not have any inherent advantage over option buyers. If they did, the market would move to bring the bias back to equilibrium (that means everyone would sell them Mr.B), i.e. an efficient market.

That's it, two simple points, but oh so painful to get across.

Thanks for your input BigB - sensible discussion needed.

 

[bulldozer]

He actually thinks that 90% expire worthless, but let him have those thoughts. Anyway, could you tell me which 30% will expire worthless in December ?

Sure you can, but only by reducing potential profits - there is no free lunch.

I didn't say he couldn't. In fact anyone can write options, you just whistle up your broker and give him the order.

I have made two points during this debate which haven't changed (despite being destracted by drivel from cloth ears above)....

1) Selling DOTM puts, in sufficient quantities so as to give a reasonable return on capital, is a very high risk strategy. Most of the time you pocket a small amount, but the sharp moves can, and often do, wipe you out.

2) Option writers do not have any inherent advantage over option buyers. If they did, the market would move to bring the bias back to equilibrium (that means everyone would sell them Mr.B), i.e. an efficient market.

That's it, two simple points, but oh so painful to get across.

Thanks for your input BigB - sensible discussion needed.

Mr Profitlooser Mr CopoutMouse,

1. NOT everybody Can or allowed to write Options on ftse index! Some brokers WONT let you write!

2. I can tell you NOW which options will expire worthless: :cheesy: > NOVEMBER PUT strikes 3025 to 4025! from 4025 to 5025 how many strikes is that? :cheesy: And on the CALLS from 5525 to 5725 and from 5725 to 6725 and from 6725 to the MOON ALL FINISH WORTHLESS!! :cheesy: And all the buyers that bought any of these will lose every penny to the WRITERS!! :cheesy: INCLUDING the money they dont own!! borrowed money! :cheesy: Now how many MILLIONSof DOLLARS IS THAT OR SHUOLD I SAY POUNDS STIRLING :cheesy:

3. Thanks for making your 2 points Casinos and bookies take high risks too and take money from people like option writers do! and you say they dont have the advantage??! That cool! How many options buyers go bust compared to writers? I'm NOT trying to convert you! we need buyers the more the merry!

4. Please tell us when you are going to show an Option trade so we can monitor the performance?and sample your techniques or style? Cause i need a well deserved break dont you think?

Bull

 

[Profitaker]

Casinos and bookies take high risks too and take money from people like option writers do! and you say they dont have the advantage??

Casino's have an undisputable advantage, I never said they didn't.

I'm NOT trying to convert you!

You can't convert me - I'm an option trader, that means I buy and sell options.

Now please, get back under your stone - you stiffle good debate.