I can take solace in the fact that I didnt take the trade because I stuck to my rules and watched the open closely. Did not trigger due to no upward push. in fact the open at 8pm showed othertime frame was looking to sell, an early sign that price above value was unfair in other time frame participants eyes. An example to me of sticking to my p-lan willhelp me not to make a bad trade.
I can also note that I saw the likelyhood of a trend happening was high. Indeed it trended just in the opposite direction. Up or down these are the days I want to be in.
With that being said I have to note a flaw in my trading that may just be the biggest hurdle for me to be consistant. And here it is:
At 1pm eastern I noted a noticable drop on OBV 15 minute indicating that price was likey to fall at least 60 points from where it was at the time of around 98.80. Subsequently, the one hour OBV also so a signifigant drop further giving strength to the analysis. It became apparent to me that price was not going to stay up without taking a nice dip. However, my bias was up and the news about the debt deal had me thinking the pair would go up since it was going up with a hint of the deal being done. Foolish thinking of course but this a journal to be honest and document thought process.
Had I heeded those early clues I would have realized the big boys were SELLING as price was going up at least since 1pm eastern. Another clue was volume did not go higher even as price did. And lastly when I saw rejection of upper value I should have put all this together and got in short. I could not get past my bias. I see I have more work to be done in that area.
Also, it was hard to change bias because price was above all moving averages when I saw this weakning. I can at least say the main reasin did not go with the obvious short is because in the past I was burned many times going against the trend and going against a trend is something I absolutly will not do, even after this. And I am not overly reliant on MA's in fact I just use them as a guide (3 ducks actually) to help keep me on the right side of a trend.
Lastly, while I like to trade technical I see some knowledge of fundamentals are needed to filter out when to trade a certain pair and why depending on what is going on in the markets.