Price did indeed reach 131.20 and a little above it before stalling. Feels good to see progress in short term analysis.
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Price did indeed reach 131.20 and a little above it before stalling. Feels good to see progress in short term analysis.
Price at time of post 131.09
Reasons for trade:
Narrow range today in MP and value area is small. MP P shaped and above kumo cloud on all time frames. Looks like it is ready to break out soon.
Has good kumo cloud support beneath.
OBV has made a higher high.
Price should head toward a monthly POC control about at 131.71
I placed TP well below value area high of May MP.
Entry is near the bottom of current value area low.
Probability of price having an up day is pretty good so I will play the odds.
I think 60 pips is a nice target but I'l shoot for 90 because it there is a valid target in sight and if I am correct price is about to break up swiftly today or tomorrow barring news to the ccontrary.
Reasons for trade:
Narrow range today in MP and value area is small. MP P shaped and above kumo cloud on all time frames. Looks like it is ready to break out soon.
Has good kumo cloud support beneath.
OBV has made a higher high.
Price should head toward a monthly POC control about at 131.71
I placed TP well below value area high of May MP.
Entry is near the bottom of current value area low.
Probability of price having an up day is pretty good so I will play the odds.
I think 60 pips is a nice target but I'l shoot for 90 because it there is a valid target in sight and if I am correct price is about to break up swiftly today or tomorrow barring news to the ccontrary.
Didn't get the price I wanted. Missed it by just a hair. Amazing how accurate these levels can be sometimes. Took the buy at market 131.15 because I don't think it will go back to my initial price. Same stop loss.
Still a mild case of chasing price but I should have set the buy at this price anyway. Trying to get the absolute low price has cost me good moves in the past. A few pips wont hurt especially if I am right. If I am wrong the risk has already been set and will not change. The intial balance is showing an extreme of 131.95 so I will take 131.85 as TP
Still a mild case of chasing price but I should have set the buy at this price anyway. Trying to get the absolute low price has cost me good moves in the past. A few pips wont hurt especially if I am right. If I am wrong the risk has already been set and will not change. The intial balance is showing an extreme of 131.95 so I will take 131.85 as TP
Quick check before turning in for the night and an old lesson rears its head. SET your price and leave it alone lol. I would have been filled at my original price, cost me 15 pips. Oh well, I will let the trade run as is. But I will be sure to simply set and forget from here on out.
On a side note, in the past I would have definitely put in another trade at the lower price to make up for the mistake. Often those moments turned into big losses because the trade ended up going the wrong way. Even now I really wanted to add on but I didn't. My mindset is simple. Take my target and don't get greedy. If this trade goes bad its just one trade. The mindset of making up trades killed my accounts many times. So now I can say I have at least rid myself of that bad tendency.
On a side note, in the past I would have definitely put in another trade at the lower price to make up for the mistake. Often those moments turned into big losses because the trade ended up going the wrong way. Even now I really wanted to add on but I didn't. My mindset is simple. Take my target and don't get greedy. If this trade goes bad its just one trade. The mindset of making up trades killed my accounts many times. So now I can say I have at least rid myself of that bad tendency.
Got out of trade with 1 pip loss this morning. OBV has made a lower lower and price has stalled It may still go up but im not taking my chnaces and will wait for a better set up.
Price turned around at initial balance 1st extreme. If price does move down from here I would expect it to rotate to at least the other initial balance extreme around 130.73. I think a better entry can be had so I will wait or sit this move out.
As it is, I think price will be heading down around 132.30 area if not before now. Not gonna try and pick a top.
Price turned around at initial balance 1st extreme. If price does move down from here I would expect it to rotate to at least the other initial balance extreme around 130.73. I think a better entry can be had so I will wait or sit this move out.
As it is, I think price will be heading down around 132.30 area if not before now. Not gonna try and pick a top.
looks like I should have stayed in the trade as of this post. Price has gone back up past 131.40, this is intial balance extreme point from asian session. If it goes much further past this then I expect price to hit projected target. I am already out of the trade with a loss of a pip but I will monitor to see if my analysis was correct and note the outcome.
All the same I see weakinig momention on hourly and it made a lower low. it tells me that price will reverse soon. The daily OBV is already for a while now showing slowing momentum and its high have been lower than price highs for awhile. I think I will look for sell opportunites soon now. I would like to see how price does over 132.00 towards 132.30
All the same I see weakinig momention on hourly and it made a lower low. it tells me that price will reverse soon. The daily OBV is already for a while now showing slowing momentum and its high have been lower than price highs for awhile. I think I will look for sell opportunites soon now. I would like to see how price does over 132.00 towards 132.30
Price seems to be stalling around 131.70 an area of interest to me since it was a previous point of control. This stall along with momentum weakening on OBV tells me that it may be going down for the next session. In the past I know I would have tried to guess the top here and enter short. While I think its a good shot to go down I will follow my system and wait til it tells me when it is a good time to buy or sell. Right now it is showing up. I did not make my plan around getting every pip possible, I like to get the middle part. So I will miss the start of a possible trip down. If price gets to around 132 - 132.30 then I may think of shorting there.
Originally Posted by Purple Brain View Post
This is what makes this market. ndnole long while I'm short. Within our own timeframes and trading methods and position constructions we could both end up being right or both end up being wrong.
For the record:
I'm short on a break below 129.98. Stop 130.38.
Move to b/e at 129.80.
Targets 129.60, 129.26, 128.55 and 128.24 where I take 25% off initial position size off at each and move stop down to next higher SR level.
Just one note .
Make sure you are not on the end of the rope and allways trade with the trend.
I noticed that the lowest low to the left was only at 129.65 so the room for profit not that great but with a bit of luck you got another 37 pips before it pulled back
250 pips had you taken the other trade the 61.8 fibo from Aug. 12 to Aug. 23.
What i am telling you is time is the only unknown here everything else we can get to so your best friend is know were you want to enter and exit because those are the best places at the moment to profit.
This is what makes this market. ndnole long while I'm short. Within our own timeframes and trading methods and position constructions we could both end up being right or both end up being wrong.
For the record:
I'm short on a break below 129.98. Stop 130.38.
Move to b/e at 129.80.
Targets 129.60, 129.26, 128.55 and 128.24 where I take 25% off initial position size off at each and move stop down to next higher SR level.
Just one note .
Make sure you are not on the end of the rope and allways trade with the trend.
I noticed that the lowest low to the left was only at 129.65 so the room for profit not that great but with a bit of luck you got another 37 pips before it pulled back
250 pips had you taken the other trade the 61.8 fibo from Aug. 12 to Aug. 23.
What i am telling you is time is the only unknown here everything else we can get to so your best friend is know were you want to enter and exit because those are the best places at the moment to profit.
Last edited:
For today this may be my 2cents of trading help
EUR/JPY
enter 131.60
s/l 131.30
t/p 131.99
I see price possibly going as low as 130.80 if it breaks 131.35
I think price if it breaks 131.35 will go down as far as 130.80, then bounce to around 131.15 to 131.20 and head down again. Im out until I see what the market is going to do. Plus some news is coming out so best for me to stay out the way. Price currently 131.53
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