JillyB's Blog

[JillyB]

Down to Test Support?

At the moment the Dow is at 10,906/10 which is right on the cusp of two different trades.

The first trade - if it opens lower than this level will be Trade 58. Which means we would be waiting for a close outside the previous days range to dictate the direction of the trade.

The second trade - if it opens higher than this level will be Trade 3, which means we will be looking at a SELL trade down to at least 10,806. We may even go lower than this to test support at 10,720 level.

This is going to be a tough one to call and will depend entirely on where the Dow opens.

 

[JillyB]

The difference between < and >

I wasn't happy with the todays trade. As I said in my earlier post it was right on the cusp of two trades - 3 and 58. With Trade 58, I would have to wait until the index closed outside the previous range on a 30 min chart - which it has still to do, although it has now hit the high.

Trade 3 was giving me a SELL signal, and this did perplex me a little, due to my own reading of Friday's chart. On Friday we had an early fall and then consolidation at a lower level, indicating that there was very little bear pressure on the market to push it any lower. There was also a shake-out seen on the 5 min chart, where the index dropped to 10,831 before bouncing back up immediately. Both these items pointed my thoughts in the direction of today being an up day.

So I sat down and manually entered the figures and calculated the values I required to define the trade. My manual calculations gave me something different - BUY up to the high - as happened on Monday 10th July.

This made me interrogate the programme to see what had happened. I soon spotted the error < where it should have been >. Simple mistake, but catastrophic when it comes to trading.

I'm only pleased that I was hesitant today. My gut feeling went against the system and for once it was proved correct and I didn't suffer any loss.

As I didn't trade today, there is no update on the current system analysis and it stays as is.

 

[JillyB]

Better Luck Today

Hopefully all the gremlins of yesterday have now been fixed and we should be into some good trading times again.

At the moment the Dow is at 11,035 which gives me Trade 6

This has
BUY up to the previous high at 11,064 - this may possibly go higher to around 11,075

Then reversal SELL back down to open - using trailing stop after 50% reversal has been achieved.

EDIT:
14.31 In at 11,030/34 for BUY trade

EDIT:
15.04
Target hit of high at 11,064 - 30 points profit

EDIT
15.10
In at 11,077/81 for SELL trade

EDIT
15.34
Touched 11,033 (open) missed this. Out at 11,036/40 for 37 points

That then gives me
Total of 45 trades - 37 winning and 8 losing
Winning trades (37) = 1240 points
Losing trades (8) = 175 points
Nett points = 1065

37 wins out of 45 trades = 82.2% success rate.

 

[JillyB]

Similar Sort of Day

At the moment the Dow is at 11,095, which is just below the close of last night.

At the moment we have Trade 1. Which gives me

BUY up to the close at 11,104 and possibly on the high at 11,132.

Then look for a reversal for a SELL trade and hold until 8pm .

EDIT
15.20 Stopped out for -31

This means we now have 9 losing trades and the statistics look like this.

Total trades = 46
Winning trades (37) = 1240 points
Losing trades (9) = 206 points
Nett points = 1034

37 Wins out of 46 trades = 80.4% success rate.

 

[JillyB]

Phooey! Stopped out just before low!

Phooey! and Double drat! I was stopped out of todays trade at 11,049 for 31 point loss. That's what stop losses are for - I know. First cut is the cheapest and all that. But then what happened? After making a low of 11,044 (5 points below my stop) it turned tail and hit my target. Alright, I give you that it took some time getting there but it was still hit.

I have my stop to prevent the 20% of trades that don't go my way from running off with all my profit. And my previous studies have shown that I should never be exposed to more than 30 points of 'noise' before it heads in the direction the trading plan has told me. Except for today where we had another 6 points of 'noise'.

It's a very rare occurence, to be stopped out like this and then see the trade correct itself. However I've still recorded it as a losing trade and that is the way it will stay - Phooey!

 

[JillyB]

Trade 3 Again

The Dow is currently at 11,139 which gives me Trade 3. However if it opens any lower than this we will be looking at Trade 58, which is a whole different ball game.

Trade 3 gives me
BUY up to the high at 11,155 the
SELL to the open

Not many points in this I'm afraid.

If it does open lower than this then, as I said, we will have Trade 58. This means that we will have to wait until it closes outside the range to trigger an BUY trade. However if it goes up to the high, but does not close above it on a 30 min chart, then we would be looking at a SELL from that point.
Similar to Trade 3 when you look at it, I suppose.

I'll update later.

EDIT: 14.45
The open was at 11,138 which as I said gave us Trade 58 -
The index has now closed above the previous days range on a 5 min chart - I am testing this against a 30 min chart - I'm going to let it pull back a bit and then trade it to continue the uptrend.

EDIT:14.53
Pullback has gone past the 61.8% fib of the initial rise and this has negated the uptrend. On the 30 min chart the index is now below the high of yesterday, so we may be looking for a SELL trade now.

EDIT: 15.03
Well it closed 1 point above the high on the 30 min candle. This now gives another BUY trade - however the indecision is bothering me - and I've taken the view that I don't want to trade this today. Try again tomorrow.

 

[JillyB]

Todays Trade

At the moment the Dow is at 11,148. Which once again gives me Trade 3

BUY up to the previous high at 11,186 - it shouldn't go too much above this, sometimes only 2 points.

SELL back down to the open.

I'll update this entry during the afternoon

EDIT:14.47

Open was at 11,151/55

In at 11,152/56 for BUY up to 11,186 - hit at 14.45 for 30 points

SELL at 11,186/90 back to 11,151

EDIT:15.11
Chickened out at 11,153/57 - I have to stop doing this!

That's 29 points on the way down making a total of 59 for the day.

The statistics now look like this

48 trades - 39 winning: 9 losing

Winning (39) trades = 1299 points
Losing (9) trades = 206 points
Nett points = 1093

39 winning trades out of 48 trades = 81.25% win rate.

 

[JillyB]

Phone Line Problems

Sorry I missed posting todays trade. We've been having problems with the phone/broadband cutting out over the weekend and it's been a real pain in the bum! Anyway at 2.15pm the phone engineer turned up to look at the problem - hence no posting. The fault was with one of the wires across at the pole, so now that it's been fixed we should hopefully be ok.

The Dow opened at 11,184 and I'm in at 11,179/83 for a BUY trade to go up. According to the Trading Plan we have Trade 1 which is BUY up to the close at 11,205 and possibly on to around 11,215-225.

After this look for a SELL trade to go back down to the close at 11,205 and possibly on to the low at 11,148. It will depend on what time the reversal happens. If it happens after 3.30pm then it will only go down to the close at 11,205.

I'll edit this entry during the afternoon.

EDIT: 17.12
Well it seems that the phone line still isn't working properly. The phone man had been gone about 20 minutes before it started playing up again. While he was here he did say he thought it could be where our line goes across next doors new extension that was causing the problem. The line is trapped under the eaves of the new extension and then goes over the ridge of the existing lower part of the house. The phone man thought the wire could be rubbing against the ridge tile and wearing through. Also it's quite breezy here today, so that may also be why we're getting it as an intermittent fault. When the wind blows and moves the wire we lose connection and when it calms down again it's restored. We've now phoned them back up to tell them it's still not working properly and the chap is coming back out to it, though it looks like it will be tomorrow now before he comes.

Anyway because of this I exited my trade early. The constant loss of connection to CMC wasn't doing me any good. I got out for +13, at 11,196. However I did note that it went back to the close at 11,205, though what's happened since then I'm not sure as I've given the whole thing up as a bad job for today and switched my trading pc off.

In view of this, I'm just going to take the points I've earned today as the result.

This therefore gives me.

49 Trades in Total - 40 winning and 9 losing
Winning trades (40) = 1312 points
Losing trades (9) = 206 points
Nett points (40 trades) = 1106

40 Winning trades out of 49 Trades in total = 81.6% win rate.

 

[JillyB]

Back On Line

My phone line has been fixed and hence my broadband connection is now working once again. (This is why there was no post yesterday for the Dow, without a connection there was no way I could post, let alone trade.)

It turned out to be a new one anyway. Trade 7 - so as luck would have it a watch and observe day only.

Today the Dow is currenlty at 11,152, which gives me Trade 58. Again we have to look to see if this will trade outside the previous days trading range (I hate this trade, I have to admit - I like to be in there and trading not waiting for it and seeing the points tick away.)

Anyway I'm going to stick my neck out and say we will at least have a test of yesterdays high at 11,160 - not too difficult as it's only 8 points away. After that I will have to wait for a close above the high or not. If it doesn't this would indicate a SELL down to the close of yesterday.

However if it goes much higher before the open, and gets closer to the high, then this changes the trade and we would have Trade 13. Here we would be looking for rise to the high of the few remaining points and then to take a position above 11,160 for a SELL back down to yesterdays close at 11,122. Before looking for a bounce and a BUY up to the open.

 

[JillyB]

Opened at 11,162

The Dow has just opened at 11,162. Which gives me Trade 34

BUY to continue uptrend and look for around 40 points.

Then reversal SELL back down to open.

I'll edit this later.

EDIT: 15.43

I've been stopped out for +2 when it fell below 11,167 earlier. I'm not sure whether I've put my trailing stop too close or whether this trade is going to fail.

It did go up - as I said - but by only 19 points, not the 40 expected. Then it did fall back to the open - as I said. So perhaps it's only the amount of rise on the first part of the trade that needs to be looked at. This trade has only happened twice before, the last time being 16th March (which was real-time trading) and before that 9th Februrary (which was part of the backtesting).

In March it went up by 40 points before returning back down to the open. Unfortunately my charts won't now go back as far as the beginning of February intraday, so I can't tell what happened. As it was a time before I was real-trading it, I didn't make any notes on the days progress, just the High/Low/Close/Open.

So all in all, the direction was spot on - it's the target that requires a bit of attention.

EDIT: 19.14
I've just returned from a meeting to find that the Dow has gone up and hit my initial target of 11,202 (open +40 points). I think the trade needs a bit of rewriting with times to incorporate a retest of the previous high if the initial upward movement is slower - as today. ie. if the target isn't hit by 2.50 -3pm then look for a retest of the previous high, before it resumes the upward trend.

 

[JillyB]

Win or Lose Today?

So I now have the dilemma of whether or not I register today's trade as a win or lose.

Technically I have to say that it is a win. My stop at the open was at 11,132 and this hasn't been hit all day. Yes it went up and then came back down to test support. But then it did go up to my target. So if you take the stance that you have a stop order and a limit order and whichever is triggered first determines whether the trade is a win or lose, then this would have to be a win trade.

And this win would have generated 40 points - spread = 36 points profit. As it was I took 2 points because I moved my stop up.

I would add to this that I've amended this trade to add in some timescales. So if it moves up quickly - as it did in April - then the target of 40 points can be taken and a reversal looked at between 3.30-4pm. If, like today, the movement is more slow and the target is not hit by 2.50-3pm then the index will do a retest of the high before it resumes its uptrend to the target level. On these slower days, when the upper target is not hit until later than 3.30pm the reversal back down to the open will not occur. I'm hoping now that this will fine-tune trade 34. They say that you shouldn't fine tune a system to fit the parameters of a particular day, but I've found with the system that it's worked quite well. I now have trades that I am very certain of because they've been well tested in the market and their fine-tuning has withstood this test. I'm hoping that this trade will now join those others.

So with my stop not being hit, I am calling today a win. However I am only going to show the system taking the 2 points - as I did. Not the 36 points that were possible, as I noted above.

Total of 50 trades with 41 wins and 9 losses.
Winning trades (41) = 1314 points
Losing trades (9) = 206 points
Nett points = 1108

41 wins out of 50 trades gives a win rate of 82%

In case anyone is interested, the positive expectancy looks like this.

(82 x 32) / (18 x 22.9) = 6.36

 

[JillyB]

Trade 68

At the moment the Dow is at 11,145 which gives me Trade 58.

This trade has only happened once before on 3rd March this year, but we'll see how it goes. The trade says.

BUY up to the close at 11,191

There may possibly be a reversal later in the day, 6-7pm time for a SELL trade back down to the open - but this may not happen and it may consolidate.

Let's wait and see.

EDIT:15.21

Just got out when the target was hit at 11,191
I was in at 11,134/38 - so that's 53 points profit for today.

This now gives me: 51 trades in total
42 winning trades and 9 losing
Winning trades (42) = 1367
Losing trades (9) = 206
Nett points = 1161

42 winning trades out of 51 trades in total = 82.3% win rate

 

[JillyB]

No Trade Today

The Dow is currently at 11,319, which is 76 points from yesterdays close and 51 points above the high of yesterday.

This is a new trade - Trade 40.

Unless the Dow drops below 11,300 before the open - which I can't really see, then this is what we will have. Below 11,300 we would have Trade 8.

EDIT: 14.30
The Dow opened at 11,314 - so we do have the new Trade 40 - which is therefore a watch and observe day.

I'm on holiday all next week (again) so the next posts will be on Tuesday 15th August.

 

[JillyB]

Holiday Update

So here I am back from my latest jaunt and raring to go again. Having looked at last weeks trades it seems that I didn't miss much either - there were 2 losing trades, 1 new trade and 3 correct trades. So I'll detail them below and then add the figures into the analysis I've been running.

Monday 7th August - Trade 1 - BUY = 17 points then SELL = 41 points - TOTAL = 58 points

Tuesday 8th August - Trade 48 - NEW

Wednesday 9th August - Trade 3 - LOSING = -31 points

Thursday 10th August - Trade 6 - BUY = 39 points

Friday 11th August - Trade 1 - LOSING = -31 points

Monday 14th August - Trade 59 - BUY = 44 points then SELL = 112 points - TOTAL = 156 points

So we now have the following

58 trades in total with 47 winning trades and 11 losing trades
Winning trades (47) = 1620 points
Losing trades (11) = 268 points
Nett points = 1352

47 winning trades out of 58 trades in total = 81% win rate.

So the win rate has slipped back slightly, but is holding above 80% even with what seems to have been a dire week. The positive expectancy still looks good as well

(81 x 35.2) / (19 x 24.36) = 6.16

 

[JillyB]

Trade 3

At the moment the Dow is at 11,190 which gives me Trade 3

This trade gives me
BUY up to the high at 11,203 - it shouldn't go too much above this level

SELL back down to the open at 11,190

Two rather short looking trades with not many points - ah well, that's what trading it all about.

I'll update the entry later in the afternoon.

EDIT: 15.52
Open was at 11,190
BUY trade at 11,188/92
Just hit the target of 11,203/07 for a measley 11 points
(It was also 1 point off my stop - which gave me a few hair-raising moments. But never mind success at last.)

Now on a SELL at 11,203/207 to go back down to 11,190/94 for 9 points

I suppose if I get this it will be 20 points for the day - not bad - but some serious risk/reward worries here. Still the system worked - what more do I want?

 

[JillyB]

Update on Today

Well, 20 points from 2 trades wasn't bad. The profit on the first could have been more if I'd let the index fall longer before entering, but that's not what the system tells me. The entry has to be at the open - or the right side of it for the trade, if possible. Today I managed to another 2 points lower than the open, but then had to suffer as it went against me and came within 1 point of my stop.

So todays figures look like this -2 trades = 11 points and 9 points = TOTAL 20 points

I now have a total of 60 trades in all with 49 winning trades and 11 losing trades.
Winning trades (49) = 1640 points
Losing trades (11) = 268 points
Nett Points (60 trades) = 1372

49 Winning trades out of a total of 60 gives me 81.6% win rate.

 

[JillyB]

Tricky one this

At the moment the Dow is at 11,264, which gives me Trade 59.

Trade 59 happened on Monday this week as well, and today should see a similar pattern.

There will be an initial rise - this is the tricky part - at the moment I don't have enough data on this to give a forecast of how much rise there will be. On Monday it went up 57 points from the open, before it turned tail and headed south. But one lot of data is not sufficient to base the trade on.

The second part of the trade will be a SELL back down to the close at 11,221.

If the index goes up say 40 points from the open before it reverses, then this could be a nice little trade.

I'll update this entry later in the day.

 

[JillyB]

Change of Trade

As I was typing the last entry the dow has dropped back to 11,257. This is not now Trade 59 and instead is a new trade - Trade 45.

Therefore this will be a standaside day.

 

[JillyB]

Up to Start With

The Dow is currently at 11,313 and unless we see any great movement before the open it will be Trade 1 today.

This gives a
BUY trade up to 11,322 and on until 11,338 - this could possibly go up to 11,343-53.

Then SELL back to the open - this could go lower, so use a trailing stop to lock in profits.

If the Dow opens higher than 11,313, then the trade will still remain the same until it gets close to the high of yesterday in which case we will have a different trade.

EDIT: 14.59
I'm out now at 11,330 for 14 points. Perhaps I should have stayed in for the 11,338 - Hec I've just looked and it's trying to get there - 3 points off. Never mind - back to the old ways of taking profits too soon.

EDIT:15.03
What did I say? It's hit the high of yesterday. So that counts as 1 winning trade for today.

I'm now in a SELL trade at 11,342/46 to go back down to the open at 11,312

 

[JillyB]

It's Been A Long Day

Well that was a long trade ( and I don't mean of the BUY variety).

I entered the trade at 15.01 at 11,342 for a SELL down to 11,312 and we're finally getting there. I'm out now for 26 point profit. But it was hard going. First I was in profit, then I handed it all back and went 27 points in the red, before finally it's dropped back down again.

My stop was at the usual 30 points away from my entry and, as my trading plan tells me - I should exit only when either the stop or my target is hit. Yet I have to admit it's hard trading this way sometimes. Usually it has a bit of a stutter but then heads the way you want - but today has been long and drawn out and not done me much good. I keep thinking about turning the screen off and walking away, so I don't sit and fret over it all afternoon.

I once did this. Set my stop and limit orders and then went out for the afternoon. When I came back I'd made 35 points. But if I'd have been sat watching it, it would have been such a roller coaster of trading and my emotions.

So today we've had two trades and 40 points profit, which could have been more if I'd stuck to the trading plan on the first trade. Really with this I should show the targets as being hit and what those would have made in points - not my lesser 'scardy cat' trades. This way I have an accurate measure of how well the Trading Plan is working ( and not me).

So today we gave an initial target of the high at 11,338, with a possibility of going up to 11,343-353, both of which were achieved. For this I'm going to assume the exit was made at 11,343 and the following SELL trade placed at 11,342 ( as I did)

This would then give 27 points for the BUY trade and 26 points on the SELL trade. A total of 53 points.

The running total for the system then is

62 Trades in Total - 51 winning and 11 losing
Winning trades (51) = 1693 points
Losing trades (11) = 268 points
Nett points = 1425

51 winning trades out of 62 total trades = 82.25% win rate.