JillyB's Blog

Test of High and Sell

At the moment the Dow is at 11,030, if it stays around this level until the open then we will be looking at Trade 10.

This trade gives me the following:-

Place a BUY trade to continue uptrend to previous high at 11,042. This may go above the high, up to 11,045-50.
Look to take no more than 15-20 points from this first trade.

Then look for a possible reversal on a 2 or 3 min chart at 3.10-3.20pm to place the SELL trade, down to the close at 11,013 and possibly beyond this. (This is where the points are!)

If the index does not reach the high until after 3.30pm, the reversal will not be until around 6-7pm - this may then happen as a breakout from consolidation.

Lets see how it goes.

Edit: 15.31.
Well the first part of the trade was successful and we're now trading ar 11,002. Move the stop down to the level of the close at 11,013, to lock in profits. It's going to struggle with the 11,000 level, but if it keeps going down, the next target will be the low of Friday at 10,974. Again, if it reaches this and trades below it, we'll lock in profits at this level too. (I'm going to trail the stop down based on the highs on a 5min chart).

Edit: 15.40.
Stop moved down to 11,006 locking in 34 points (Trade entered at 11,044 for SELL trade, didn't bother with initial BUY trade at beginning, but could have bagged 10 points on this as well. Thought I would wait for the main sell trade).

Edit: 16.03.
My stop has been hit, so I'm out of the trade for +34 points.

With Fridays 2 trades between the open and close (didn't generate many points, but were correct). This now gives us 25 trades executed: 19 correct, 6 wrong: 76% win rate (getting better). Fridays trades netted 16 points (2 at 8 points) and todays 34 points.

That gives me a total of:-
Total winning points(19 trades) = 499
Total losing points (6 trades) = 114
Nett points = 385
 
Not so Sure Today.

Yesterday was a pretty accurate forecast. Even got the top of the initial uptrend nailed. However I do need to look at my stop, especially when trailing it down, yesterdays was too close and I got stopped out too early, missing the afternoon fall.

Today - at the moment the Dow is showing 10,952. Which gives me stinking Trade 58 again. Now last time we had this I said I was going to revise the theory and look for a break above/below the high or low, then look for a retracement from this.

I think today we may be looking at an initial test of the low, a bounce back up to the close (this would be the time to enter) for anothe Sell trade down past the low.

Having said that it seems to be in a very bullish mood, edging higher all the time. However it has a long way to go if it want to test the high of yesterday. The trade at this point - if it tested and failed - would be a Sell back down to the close.

If it tested and went through - closed above on a half hour chart - then it will continue on up.
 
Does this prove the theory?

So here we have it, two Trade 58's in a row.

Yesterdays was a no trade day, as the price failed to make it beyond the previous days range and trigger any potential trade. This, of course, is based on the new trading plan for Trade 58, which I outlined in an earlier entry. In brief, in order to confirm direction the price must close outside the previous days range on a 30 min chart. If it does this at the low of the previous day then it will bounce back up to the close and this is then the trigger to place a SELL trade for the rest of the session. If however, like today, it closes outside the high of the range on a 30 min chart, then this is the trigger to place a BUY trade for the rest of the session.

It closed above the high at the close of the 14.30 candle then dropped slightly to retest this level before continuing on it's way an entry at 11,031 was as good as it got really. I did get the jitters though around the 11,050 range as there is heavy resistance here and we did start to see a lot of top tails on the 5 minute candles. I'd set my stop to 11,036 - break-even +1, at least I would have a little profit on the day - but I did have my fingers crossed that it wouldn't get stopped out. Thankfully it didn't.

The old rules for Trade 58, looked for an exit of the trade at around 5-6pm - when the trade had signalled a BUY and hold day - and right now that is just what I've done at 11,106, for 71 points profit.

So far then the revision to Trade 58 looks to be working. It will still generate no trade days - like yesterday - but I'm hoping it will be more reliable in capturing at least some profit on the other days. It won't help catch the early profits I know - there were over 50 points that were left on the table at the beginning of the session while I waited for it to confirm that it was going to break the high. Still you can't win 'em all.

That gives me a total of:-26 trades
Total winning points(20 trades) = 570
Total losing points (6 trades) = 114
Nett points = 456

6 losing trades: 20 winning trades gives a win rate of 76.9% - it's getting better.
 
Upward to start with, but then??

At the moment the Dow is showing 11,054 which would give us Trade 1. For this trade we have

BUY up to the close at 11,076 and on to 11,094.
Then look for a reversal for a SELL trade back down to the close at 11,076 and the possibly lower - use a trailing stop on this.

The lower the actual open is then the lower the target on the BUY trade will be, so this will need to be watched. Look to go up to the close and then trail a stop after it.

Let's see what the afternoon session brings.

Edit: Stopped out - losing trade

Trade entered at 11,060/64 - initial target 11,074 then trailing stop up to 11,092-102. Stop at 11,032/36

Stopped out at 11,033 for -31 points.

That gives me a total of:-27 trades
Total winning points(20 trades) = 570
Total losing points (7 trades) = 145
Nett points = 425

7 losing trades: 20 winning trades gives a win rate of 74% - not so good!
 
Another Sell Day for the Dow

At the moment CMC give the Dow at 10,991 - this is 14 points above the low of yesterday.

Again, as yesterday the trading plan gives me Trade 1. However the difference with this one is the proximity of the low to the open. The trade says:-

SELL trade down to the low at 10,979 and possibly on to 10,964 -10,959 area.
Then look for a reversal BUY trade - possibly around 3.30-4pm (may be a little earlier depending on how quickly it moves passed the low). This should go up to the close at 11,011.

Lets see if this one can do better than yesterday.

Edit 14.38

Well we've made it to the low very quickly - first 5 mins, now we should look to lock in some of that profit.

Forgot to add that I'm not trading it this afternoon as I've a meeting at 3pm to go to. See you all later.

Edit: 16.27
Just back from my meeting and I see the reversal happened. By locking in profits we may not have been able to secure all of the downtrend to the low. By using a 5min chart - as I've done before - we would have moved the stop down to 10,981 (top of the 14.35 candle - this had a long top shadow so it would have given a good stop level). However this was stopped out by the return on the 14.40 candle.

This trigger of the stop should also have triggered the BUY signal for the up trade to the previous close at 11,011, which was hit and surpassed by 28 points.

For the purposes of the journal I am going to take these as the traded levels. (Though if I'd been in a real trade, I would probably have let it go up through the close and trailed a stop after it to lock in more profit).

Therefore we have
1. SELL trade at 10,998 - out at 10,981 = 13 points after spread.
2. BUY trade at 10,981 - out at 11,011 = 26 points after spread.
Total points for day = 39

That gives me a total of:-29 trades
Total winning points(22 trades) = 609
Total losing points (7 trades) = 145
Nett points = 464

7 losing trades: 22 winning trades gives a win rate of 75.8% - BETTER!
 
It's a Bit Late

The Dow opened at 10,994 which gave Trade 6.

SELL to the low at 10,966, then look for a reversal and a BUY trade back up to the open at 10,994.

I got in at 11,003/07, so not bad - perhaps could have got a better entry point as it went up to 11,017, but never mind.

Let's see how it does today.

Edit: 14.51
Chickened out at +11 points - Don't ask me why - I think I'm back to my old habits again. It was struggling with the close of yesterday at 10,991 and not making any new lows, plus there was a bullish divergence on the MACD on a 2 min chart. So I decided to take my profit.

Edit: 15.13
So glad I did that. Sometimes it helps to read the charts a bit. We seem to have a bit of bullish sentiment still there at the moment. It's failing to close above the earlier high of 11,017, but the MACD is showing stronger bullish and no divergence as yet. I'm keeping out of a short trade at the moment.

Edit: 15.41
Third test of 11,017 and a failure to close above it on the 5 min chart. Time for a SELL trade I think. I'm looking for it to go down to the open at 10,994 or close at 10,991. I will lock in profits at this level.

Edit: 17.01
It's hit the level of the close and I've locked in profits. In at 11,013/17. Stop now at 10,991/94 locking in 19 points. Still looking for it to go down to the low at 10,966 - or this trade will have to be logged as a failure, even though I've made money out of it.

Edit: 17.16
Stop moved to 10,985/89. Locking in 25 points.
 
Do I allow it?

It's a tough one this. Todays trade made it to 2 points of the low, before turning and going back up to the open.

It was a profitable trade, 11 off the first phase (before I chickened out) and 25 off the second (before I was stopped out). Technically I could also have reversed the trade to a BUY at this point and made another 5 or 10 points, in accordance with the trading plan.

I followed the trading plan and I made money on the trade. Surely I can't class this as a failure then? After all this is what trailing stops are for, isn't it?

It's also something that I've seen happen before. Today's sentiment was somewhat bullish and at time like this it can fall a couple of points short on a sell trade. Just as it can on a bearish day, fall just short of target on a buy trade.

Therefore if it's ok with everyone I'm going to allow this. I will write the trade up as 1/1 successful - not the 2/2 that it should be - as trading the second part would have been tricky. I will also only allow my 25 point trade in the figures and discount the 11 points, as it wouldn't be a fair representation of the trading plan. Therefore this gives me.

That gives me a total of:-30 trades
Total winning points(23 trades) = 634
Total losing points (7 trades) = 145
Nett points = 489

7 losing trades: 23 winning trades gives a win rate of 76.6% - GETTING BETTER!
 
Sell day for the Dow?

Curious one this, as the trading plan is coming up with a sell day.

The Dow is currently at 11,038, which gives me Trade 17. Even if it creeps up higher - nearer to the close of yesterday - we would have Trade 6. However both of them give the same option.

SELL initial target around 11,001-11,011, then use a trailing stop to go down to the low of yesterday at 10,968.

This is odd as i thought yesterdays bullish sentiment would carry over into today. I didn't expect that we would potentially have a total reverse.

Edit: 15.14
Just thought I'd add, that the open was higher - at 11,044 - than I'd noted above. Therefore this alters the initial target given, to between 11,004 -11,014.

I was in at 11,047/51 and chickend out at 11,037/41 for 6 pts. However it did go back up then to 11,056. Where - if I'd been sensible I should have got back in again, but didn't!!!!
 
I shouldn't doubt the trade!

Oh ye of little faith!

So I took 6 points. Then I got nervous. The Dow seemed to like the higher levels and after the bullish finish to yesterdays trading I had my doubts that todays trade would prove to be correct. I admit that I doubled checked it a couple of times, just in case I'd made an error inputting the numbers - but no.

Yet it proved to be correct!

I have to learn to trust the trade. It has just gone through the level of yesterday's low at 10,968, which was my final target and which from the open would have given 76 point - spread = 72 points. (And I took only six of them!)

What am I thinking of. Yes I made a profit, but I left so many other points on the table. I have a good system here, I just have to learn to stick with it and let the trade run.

My get out to take the 6 points though, was absolutely correct and well traded. I just lost my nerve to get in again - which I could easily have done and at a better price than my first trade. I really do need to get my act together. If I am going to be successful at this trading I need to trust the trade and LET THE PROFITS RUN!

I'm cross with myself - as you can probably tell. I made a profit and yet I feel as if I've made a loss. How absurd is that?

Anyway as far as the trading plan goes we have another successful trade

That gives me a total of:-31 trades
Total winning points(24 trades) = 706
Total losing points (7 trades) = 145
Nett points = 561

7 losing trades: 24 winning trades gives a win rate of 77.4%

If anyone is interested the Positive Expectancy for the system is

(77.4 x 29.4) / (22.6 x 20.7) = 4.86
 
New Trade Today

I didn't add an entry into the journal before the open of todays market as it looked as if it was going to generate a new trade - and it has done.

The low and the close were very near to each other and the open was 31 points away from the close. Therefore we have Trade 14. So far it has behaved as I expected with a retest of yesterdays low. Now I am expecting a bounce back up to the open and possibly higher - still it's early yet and I will have to wait and see if that happens. Either way today is a watch and make notes day. Hopefully tomorrow we will have something to trade.
 
A Difficult One to Call

The Dow is currently at 11,030/34. 53 points above the high of yesterday and 55 points above the close.

This is a difficult one to call as it gives me Trade 59. This trade has only happened once before in all the data I have so far and this was on 18th November 2005. It formed part of my back-test data and therefore has never been traded in real-time.

On the 18th November the index went up until 3pm and then fell back to the close of the previous day before then resuming its upward trend.

However we do have a noted variable to watch for here, that the trading plan alerts me to. This is that the close and the high of yesterday are 2 points away from each other. On the 18th November there was an 11 point difference. It is this difference that may cause a variation in the trade. It indicates that after making the high the index fell away from it. Where as yesterday it finished quite strongly and held on to the upper figure.

This may be the one difference that gives the index strength to continue with its upward movement and not to fall back and retrace to the close.

With this indecision and the variable that the trading plan is alerting me to, I am therefore designating this a stand-aside day. I will instead be watching the days action and taking notes.
 
More upward movement signalled

The Dow is currently at 11,228/32 on CMC, which is above yesterdays range and more than 40 points from the close of yesterday.

This currently gives me Trade 5, which is another trade - like yesterday - that hasn't occurred since last year. 31st October 2005 to be precise. This also means this trade, like yesterdays has not been tested in real time.

The trade says that the index will rise for the first half hour of trading - I hadn't started putting targets in when I initially wrote the trading plan - it will then fall back to the open.

For a more detailed look - Trade 31 - which will be current if the index opens lower than it is at the moment - around 11,217 region - gives the Dow again going up on the open.

A BUY trade up to around open +40 possibly on to open +60 -+80(use a trailing stop for this). This would give a target of 11,277-11,299 assuming the open is at 11,217.

The trade then gives a SELL trade for a 50% fib of the total rise.

EDIT:
Whilst writing this the index has now gone up to 11,234/36. This gives me a new Trade - 40. Though my expectations would probably be a similar outcome to that mentioned above.

If it does open around this level, it will be a stand-aside day for me as I observe and record the movement.
 
An Interesting Day & Trade 58

Well it seems that the Dow is doing the exact opposite of what the trade was telling me. The open at 11,225/29 was still within the bounds of Trade 5 - which as I mentioned in the previous post we haven't had since 31st October 2005.

I haven't traded this. The detail I entered into the trading plan at the start isn't as detailed as I now like. However looking at the stats for today and the 31st October, they are extremely similar days. Both happen after a +150 point rise on the index and both have the close very near to the high of the day. Both then open the following day (today) 30 points above the high. Theoretically they should both have similar trading patterns and yet they don't. The analysis of the trade isn't as simple as I've indicated above, there are other factors involved, but suffice to say that even looking at all the indicators - there isn't a lot to differentiate between them.

So what do I expect? Well, at the moment, we seem to be holding a level around the close of yesterday (currently we are just below it), but looking at a 5min chart we seem to have a lot of congestion here. There is obviously not much selling off after yesterdays rise. This makes me wonder if we might see a rise back up to the open and the high of the morning at 11,240 at some point today.

Trade 58
I've been looking at this trade again - I'll admit to thinking about it while lying in bed last night - which sounds pretty obsessive, but what I did think about (and tested this morning) did prove to be correct.

I've recently bought a book called the Taylor Trading Technique (I've LeoVirgo to thank for getting me interested in this - thanks!) In the book, part of the theory he used, struck me as important and something that could well influence my trading plan as well. In it ,Taylor records which occured first during the trading day, the day's high or the day's low. So I thought I would look back at my own records and see if this influenced the dreaded Trade 58.

On a 1 hour chart I can get back as far as the beginning of January, so this is where I started testing. From January until the 18th May it was spot on. Whenever we had a Trade 58 and on the previous day the high ocurred first, then the trade would be a BUY and hold till 5-6pm. Conversely when we had Trade 58 and on the previous day the low ocurred first, then the trade would be a SELL at 2.50-3.10pm.

However after the 18th May it all went pear shaped and the significance of the previous days high or low forming first, had no effect on the outcome. It wasn't even in reverse, it was just all over the place.

So what was significant about the 18th May? This was bugging me and was what I was thinking about when I went to bed last night. I knew the Dow had finished it's uptrend and had started on a downtrend just a few days earlier, so could this be significant? I wondered if it had crossed an MA, a 50 perhaps on the daily chart. But no there were other ocassions where it had done this during the time from January to May, and the trade had been correct. What about 100 MA. Yes, it had bounced off this on the daily chart until....... yes, you guessed it, the 18th May. I had also added onto the chart trendlines, starting at the end of October and following the steady uptrend through to May. At the 18th May the index broke this uptrend and turned into a downtrend. Where it has remained until 22nd June. Exactly the timescale I had for when all the Trade 58's went pear-shaped.

We have now come out of the downtrend on the daily chart and have started a new uptrend, so the interesting thing to see will be if the Dow starts to respect this new theory - if the high of the previous day is formed first, then we have an up day. If the low of the previous day forms first then we have a sell day.

Interesting stuff - I'm off out into the garden now to do some more reading.

Have a good weekend everyone.

Edit: No trading Monday or Tuesday as the Dow is closed. I will also be going on holiday on Friday for 10 days, so that only leaves Wednesday and Thursday for trading next week.
 
Typical Behaviour

In past years the Dow has been known to rise in the 4 trading days prior to the 4th July holiday. After that it has retraced and given up some of it's pre-holiday gains. This year has been no exception.

It started falling pre-open and by the time 2.30pm arrived we were already 47 points below the close of Monday and 12 points below the low. This substantial loss and open below the previous range, gave me a new trade - Trade 66. Therefore meaning that today was an observation and recording day. However looking at past trades where the open has been below the range - but more points below it than today - I did wonder if we would have the same reaction a SELL trade. The only doubt in my mind was the proximity of the low and whether we would see an initial bounce up to this level before it started to drop. As it was we didn't; the Dow rose only 8 pts in the opening minutes before the descent began.

It is so nice when pieces of information you possess agree with one another. It gives more of a feeling of certainty to what you are doing with your trading. Historically I knew that the Dow was in for a fall today and my trading plan - albeit not this new trade - were giving me the same information. It gives me more confidence in what I'm doing. When the information conflicts, then I admit that the thing I doubt is my Trading Plan. This is one of the reasons I never have news on before or during the time I am trading. I never read news websites, listen to analysts or get anyone elses opinions. I trade what I see and what my Trading Plan tells me. If I listen to what anyone else says, or what the news is predicting the Dow will do today, then I lose faith and begin to doubt what I see. For me that is the worst thing. I am not someone who is over-confident, I do suffer with being a nervous trader (hence exiting trades too soon), so the last thing I need is to hear someone saying the exact opposite will happen, from what my trading plan is telling me. That's a sure way to stop me trading that day.

I have a notice on my desk with trading 'promises' to myself that I try to keep. The first one listed is 'I promise to trust the trade'. The second is 'I promise to let my profits run' and so on - you get the picture.

Anyway tomorrow is my last trading day before my holiday, so l hope it's going to be a good one.
 
Trade 10

The Dow is currently at 11,162/66 which gives me Trade 10.

This trade is exactly the same as Trade 58 except on a narrower range from the previous day. Again like Trade 58 I will wait for it to close outside the previous range on a 30min chart before trading it. I'm expecting that this will be in an upward direction.

EDIT: 16.20
Just as with Trade 58, 5pm is the optimum time to take profits. My stop is currently at 11,230 locking in 35 points. (Entry point was 11,191 - following close of 2.30pm candle.

EDIT: 17.18
Stopped out just before 5pm when it dipped below 11,230. So that was 35 points and another successful trade.

That now gives me a total of:- 32 trades (25 winning and 7 losing)
Total winning points(25 trades) = 741
Total losing points (7 trades) = 145
Nett points = 596

7 losing trades: 25 winning trades gives a win rate of 78.1%

That's it for me until 20th July now. I'm off on holiday tomorrow. We're on the 'red eye' from here to Gatwick at 7.00am. Arrgh!!! (I don't do mornings!)

I'll update the journal with the trades that have happened while I was away - just as I did before so I can continue to get an idea of the system performance.
 
Holiday Catch-up

So here I am, back from holiday and it appears that I have missed the Great British Summer. While I was sunning myself in Cyprus it appears that the UK was equally as hot. Today, the weather in Guernsey is cool - 22 degrees - and cloudy; which is what the south of the UK will be getting tomorrow.

So is that it for summer? I hope not - it's my birthday on Saturday and I'd like it to be at least a little sunny for then; perhaps not the sweltering heat of the past week, but at least warm and sunny.

Anyway to the business of trading. I've compiled the trades that happened while I was away and as before I've tried to be as fair as I can in assessing them. On quite a few there were more points to be taken than I've shown - when the index hit the target and then carried on - so what I'm showing is conservative.

Friday 7th July - Trade 19 - At open sell to 11,121-26 Nett = +36 points.

Monday 10th July - Trade 3 - Buy up to high then (+39 points nett) Sell down to close (+79 points nett) Total = 118 points

Tuesday 11th July - Trade 4 - Wait for it to go up to previous low then Sell and hold till 5-6pm. Nett = +26 points.

Wednesday 12th July - Trade 6 - Buy up to high at 11,148 (+16 points). Look for 3pm reversal and sell to open at 11,128 (+16 points). Total = 32 points.

Thursday 13th July - NEW TRADE - 65

Friday 14th July - Trade 6 - Sell to 10,825 (+13 points) Then look for reversal to Buy up to open at 10,842. - No reversal , so second part of trade is losing. Assume maximum stop loss at 30 points, therefore Total = -17 points.

Monday 17th July - Trade 1 - Buy up to close and on to 10,774 (+36 points). Then look for reversal Sell back down to open (+36 points). Total = +72 points.

Tuesday 18th July - Trade 58 - wait until 30 min candle closes outside range. This did so at 18.00 - Sell trade with trailing stop - take 10 points nett.

This now gives me a total of:- 40 trades (32 winning and 8 losing)
Total winning points(32 trades) = 1048
Total losing points (8 trades) = 175
Nett points = 873

8 losing trades: 32 winning trades gives a win rate of 80%

If anyone is interested the Positive Expectancy - at today - for the system is

(80 x 32.75) / (20 x 21.87) = 5.9899
 
Computer Gliche

So I was totally expecting to trade today. I had everything set up and ready, but a connection gliche with the broadband made me extremely hesitant. I'm not sure if it has anything to do with the roadworks that are going on outside the house, but our broadband connection has been very hit and miss this afternoon.

It still is now, which is why this journal entry is being done in small segments as it keeps on losing my entry when the connection fails!

I did intend to trade, but what with the broadband being iffy and me being tired (Bloody Travel Lodge - we arrived there at 1.30am only to find they had no rooms spare. Our friends, who were on the earlier flight had confirmed we would be late in, when they got there, so it wasn't as if they didn't know!) It was infuriating! I spent the night sleeping on the floor of my friends room and my other half on a settee in the hotel reception! We weren't the only ones either. They will be getting an extremely strong letter about it - anyway).

I thought the best idea was just to record the trade as if it was another day of my holiday.

So today we had Trade 31.

BUY up to an initial target of 10,872, then trail a stop up to a high of 10,912. From here look for a retracement of 50% of gains since open ( target 10,879).

10,912 was hit giving 76 points profit after spread.
Retracement to 10,879 happened and this gave 29 points profit after spread.

Total for day = 105 profit.

This now gives me a total of:- 42 trades (34 winning and 8 losing)
Total winning points(34 trades) = 1153
Total losing points (8 trades) = 175
Nett points = 978

8 losing trades: 34 winning trades gives a win rate of 80.9% This is about where I expect the percentage rate to remain - around 80%. I am happy with the system generating this sort of trading returns.
 
Trade 58

At the moment the Dow is showing 11,020/24 - which will give me Trade 58.

This has the new strategy in place where I don't trade until it has closed outside the previous days range. At the moment it is very close to the top of the range so it would seem a likely scenario that the initial movement will be upwards. However it will need to close above this level on a 30 min candle (I am also currently testing shorter time frames for this) for the trade to be activated.

It may go up to the high and fail to close above it, in which case we will have a sell trade triggered.

Lets wait and see.
 
An Uneventful Day

The open today was at 11,025 - and as given in the previous post, we had Trade 58.

The initial move was in an upward direction, as I had envisaged, however it failed to close above the high of the previous day - in fact it fell 4 points short. This then would trigger a Sell trade, but when to get in. How do I know that the previous high isn't going to be broken on a retest? This is a difficult one. In fact on a 5 min chart we had mixed signals and a lot of uncertainty. By 3pm though, we still hadn't breached the previous high and by this time the index was falling steadily away from those levels. At 3pm an entry of 11,006 could have been achieved - as I did - for a Sell trade. This was followed down then and my stop put in once we'd cleared 20 points. I could have gained a maximum of 30 points today, but instead had to settle for 20 points when the index bounced back up again. Still it's not bad for a days trading.

Trade 58 still remains a hard one to trade and it tends to make me a bit more agressive with stops to try and lock in what profit I can.

So with todays trade we have

43 trades in total
35 winning trades - total points = 1173
8 losing trades - total points = 175
Nett points = 998

35 winning / 43 total trades = 81.39%

By the end of tomorrow the system test will have been running for 11 weeks. So far we have generated
998 points/11 weeks = 90.7 points per week on average.
 
Out to Lunch

I've been out to lunch today - hence missing my pre-open prediction for the Dow. It's my birthday tomorrow, so I had lunch with my girlfriends today.

Tomorrow we're off to a small Island called Herm for the day. It's about 20 minute boat trip from Guernsey, and it has some of the most stunning white sandy beaches I've ever seen.

Anyway, today would have been Trade3 (though different to the one of last week) due to the position of the open to the high and low.

The trade was sell at the open and hold with a target of 100 points - which has happened, I see.

For a comparision the last of these trades was on the 19th May - when this also happened. At the time I hadn't split the trade into two and this is what made me revise it. Now it seems to work perfectly which is good.

As I wasn't here to call the trade and I've added this after the event I am not going to include this in the analysis of the system. For me, I know it was a winning trade, but then everyone can call a winning trade after the event. My test of the system is to post here BEFORE the open of the Dow and then to trade the plan. This is what generates the results I've got so far.

See you all on Monday.
 
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