Jay's Journal

[jasont]

Thanks for that FW. I didn't actually realize the big drop was at resistance. I don't place my S&R zones on my 2 minute chart and it's the only one I have showing after market action. Now after you mentioned it I can see the area that you are talking about.

Thanks for letting me know about the GE announcement. I saw it in Bloomberg but could never find the time the news was posted. I thought surely they would have times on their articles and news releases. Turns out the time and date is at the bottom of their articles. So you have helped me get off my ass and figure out where they placed the times hehe. In a pretty discreet place actually.

Interesting that you felt similar on Friday. You mentioned that you felt a bit sorry for missing on a short, are you talking about shorting overnight or shorting just after we hit the possible 1352 Support turned Resistance? I know what you mean about Fridays turning into drift days. Some times the market looks as though people aren't willing to take major positions into the weekend, especially towards the end of the day. Thanks for the support FW.

 

[jasont]

Trade Setup For 14th April

Here are the areas I'm watching for 14th April:

Resistance

1339-1339.75
1344.75-1345.50
1351-1351.75
1357.50-1358.25
1364.75-1365.50

Support

1332.25-1331.75
1329.25-1328.50
1319.50-1319
1317-1316.50
1313.75

My Outlook

I am steering towards a downward bias right now. The failure to push through the recent range highs and hold the 57 EMA on the DJIA, SP and NDX has me concerned. We have also rebounded off the 50 EMA on the weekly NYA which is usually a good indicator of broad sentiment.

The VIX looks like it may be making it's bounce higher and could possibly be indicating an increase in volatility is coming. Gold & Oil don't appear to be strongly moving right now though Oil is moving higher and Gold is moving lower. I'm still interested to see what the outcome of this divergence is.

With the G7 meeting not having much confidence in the economies it has caused a bit of a shake up. Possibly the one that has encouraged us to decline making a break out of the recent range. The question now is how far do we fall? Have we seen the worst of it or are we going to the bottom of the range? Possibly below it? As usual this is just an analysis of what my tools are indicating to me. The market could just as likely burst through the range tomorrow. I just like to have a game plan going in to the day but if the market changes, so do I.

My Focus

My focus remains on consistency this week. Sticking with the 5 and 2 minute charts with close watch on the Tick. I'm prepared for a possible increase in volatility this week as well. I'm sticking with my risk and money management rules as they appear to be working for me now. I am still aware of the possible issue of closing trades in profit before they hit my profit target. I'm not changing anything right now but will monitor it this week.

 

[firewalker99]

Interesting that you felt similar on Friday. You mentioned that you felt a bit sorry for missing on a short, are you talking about shorting overnight or shorting just after we hit the possible 1352 Support turned Resistance? I know what you mean about Fridays turning into drift days. Some times the market looks as though people aren't willing to take major positions into the weekend, especially towards the end of the day. Thanks for the support FW.

Basically the plan was to short near the previous days highs but, due to news, we found ourselves open considerably lower. I don't really like trading pre-market because of thin volume, although sometimes there are decent (early) entries.

Also the S turned into R would've provided a nice entry but it didn't present the necessary signals for me to take it straight away. And waiting for more confirmation comes at a worse price. I didn't watch the rest of the day but it looks like price still went quite a bit lower. Anyway, I hope we can open above rather than below Friday's lows today. There's still enough potential to the downside imo.

 

[jasont]

Hey FW,

I too avoid the pre market. However for me it's not the liquidity issues as I don't think my small lots would have much trouble being filled, for me it's the lack of Tick Data. I like to have the underlying stocks helping to give me the overall picture. It is probably a hindrance on my part but it's what helps me with my trade ideas.

I know what you mean about more confirmation comes at a worse price. Strange how it becomes a balance between reducing price risk but increasing trade idea risk, or increasing price risk and reducing trade idea risk. The open above Fridays lows today was good but I had a hard time trading it.

 

[jasont]

Trading for 14th April

Here is the journal for 14th April:

Market has stayed reasonably flat in after market hours. There has been a small decline but it looks as though the Core Retail Sales report has provided a small ascent. Nothing major though and if its going to turn this delining market around it hasn't done a very good job to show it thus far. Not sure exactly what to expect at the open today so will look for the market to give some hints as always.

9:33 Market opened with a small gap down and found a little bit of support at 1332.25. Not sure if it will hold though as we have the stocks looking pretty negative right now. For the moment it appears that we are continuing the downtrend from Friday beneath the EMA on the 5 minute chart. Will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next half an hour or so.

9:43 I saw a nice double top form on the 2 minute chart as we are seeing the Tick struggling to stay above the zero line. The action so far looks pretty negative so it could turn into trend down mode. I didn't trade the souble top as I don't like trading so early in the day without further evidence of what the market is telling me. I'll stay out until I get a good idea of what the general feel is like.

9:53 odd, I'm not sure what to make of this market. Tick is pretty neutral, NQ has made lower lows but it appears as though we are basing. Orders are stacked in the Bids. In this instance a trade would be a guess right now as opposed to placing probability on my side. Best staying out until I see a solid sign of either direction. Easy to get caught up thinking any small move is the direction we are taking.

10:03 Right now the market has switched with the Tick. It appears as though stocks are building up strength. A bit of accumulation has been going on, I am beginning to think it's for the long side right now. Unless we have a drastic turn by the stocks we appear to be going for an upward run. How long it possibly goes for is anyones guess. By the looks of the buy up in the range though we could see a decent move.

10:13 Well there was the drastic move by stocks to thwart a possible upward run. I didn't think it would be that short. Looks like a bit of a suckers run to get better prices right now. Still, the Tick doesn't seem to show stocks are convinced of either direction right now. Will keep an eye out for anything that attracts my attention. Otherwise it could be a quiet day of trading.

10:19 Second guessed myself on a short trade at 1332.25. Placed the order but then removed it before being taken. Idea was against the SMA on 2 minute chart and teh zero line on the Tick with downward stair step pattern. Both are pretty flimsy right now. I think I'm better off giving it some more time.

10:23 Turns out it was a good trade idea. A bit disappointing but something to learn from. We seem to be moving down pretty hard now, Tick is struggling to stay above the zero line now. Orders are slimming down on the buying side.

10:33 The support at 1329.25 has been tested and we bounced pretty well. Right now the stocks are testing higher bids but not convincingly. Hitting the EMA on the 5 minute chart as well.

10:41 Shorted the market at 1332.50 with a stop at 1334.50. Looking for the rollover at the EMA on the 5 minute. Market paused around that area and gave me an opportunity to get out for a scratch but I didn't take it. I moved my stop down instead to 1333.75 and it was taken after a while. Tick has been gaining strength however I seemed to be stuck on my bearish bias toward the market. Was a good trade idea, was happy I moved my stop down, took a small loss for 1.25 points. Tick no appears to be bouncing off the zero line to the positive side.

10:54 It appears that I had the right idea with my trade but just a touch early. This seems to be a common occurrence lately. I get on a little while before the market moves in the desired direction. Sometimes it's too long to wait for the move, other times it's a touch early on the price. I did have my profit target set at 1330 earlier so it will be interesting to see if that is hit. Just as I was writing this I realised we could be making a possible 1-2-3 bottom. Tick was showing divergence to buying and I put my order in at 1332.25 only to pull it. Second guessing myself again. Hmm, time for a ten minute break to get myself together.

11:09 Market has been making a feeble move higher at the moment. Doesn't appear strong and it looks as though I may have missed a good shorting opportunity whilst I was taking a break. Not to worry there are plenty more opportunities in the market. The Tick has been weakening recently and the move higher in the ES is contracting. I feel like my trades are being tainted by thoughts of the P&L. If I can't get my act together I won't be placing anymore trades today.

11:26 Market is hitting the 1329.25 support for the second time now. At first it looked as though it may double bottom but I'm not so sure now. Tick still has overriding negative feel and the overall downtrend looks pretty strong. Right now I'm staying on the sidelines to see what happens.

12:04 Entered a short at 1331 against the EMA on the 5 minute with the resistance just above it. Market came up to 1331.75 with a big Tick move which was a concern. Thought a bounce from the zero on the Tick could have been problematic so I closed out the trade for break even. Don't think tonight is my night. Thats it for me, getting some rest. Not a bad days trading, took a trade that didn't turn out profitable but it was a good trade. Market just didn't seem to be easy for me to find my edge. Put it down as a learning day.

Daily Wrap Up

I had difficulty with my trading today. The market moved a lot today but moved nowhere. If that actually makes sense. 10 point range but with lots of up and down moves. I had a few good trading opportunities but I was second guessing myself which was disappointing. Now I look back at the day I can understand that it was challenging with the Tick chart and mixed signals were occurring.

The first trade was a good trade idea but just a touch too early. I got out a bit differently to how I normally would which was a bit frustrating but I only learn by going beyond the boundaries. Instead of closing the trade out for a 1-2 tick loss before it took off, which I saw the opportunity at the time, I left it to hit my stop that I moved down. I'm not a big fan of trading that way but I didn't want to close out the trade too early.

The second trade was a good trade idea as well but I had an underlying feeling that the market wasn't looking to sell off. The Tick held the zero line on the rejection which can often result in a second push higher. I wasn't feeling right in the market and took my trade off for a scratch. I could have made a scalp if I left it a bit longer but the bigger move turned out to be to the upside.

For following my focus I am giving myself a 'C'. I was spending too much time watching the 2 minute chart today which didn't allow my to focus on the 5 minute chart. My trade management deviated from my normal plan which resulted in a bigger loss than it should have been. Also my trade management in the form of pulling orders on good trade ideas has me a little concerned. I'm going to note it as a tough day in terms of interpreting the market but monitor it in case it develops into a longer term issue.

Overall I'm pleased that the day didn't result in a bigger loss than it did. I am happy that I did trade and experiment with the trade management but it is a lesson for the future. Stick to the plan as it is what has been proven over time. I am possibly getting a little bit impatient to make bigger gains because I am only using the one lot trading system. This is a long journey not a quick sprint. Time will give me the consistency and with the consistency the rewards will come. Funny how I am now shooting for a point gain score instead of a money gain score.

Trade 1: 1.25 Loss
Trade 2: Break Even

Daily Result: 1.25 Loss

 

[jasont]

Trade Setup For 15th April

Here are the zones for 15th April I am watching:

Resistance

1331.50-1332
1336.50-1337.25
1339-1339.75
1344.75-1345.50

Support

1327.75-1327.25
1319.50-1319
1317-1316.50
1313.75

My Outlook

We are at an interesting point right now. Technically an uptrend is defined by higher troughs and peaks. If we see a drop below the 12026 area on the DJIA we have a break of the recent uptrend from the March lows. The DJIA, SP and NDX all had a reasonably quiet day today which is either a sign of a breather before the continuation to the downside or a sign that we are preparing to bounce. The question right now is which one has more weight behind it?

The VIX bounced from its recent overbought area however it hasn't been showing the volatility that has been apparent in the market pre mid March. If I was to go by the VIX I'd say we are going to see further decline. That would also be supported by the current Oil prices and what looks like may be an increase in Gold. Gold is currently flat lining across the 57 EMA so it could go either way. I think Oil may drag it up with it right now.

The USD is still stalling where it is right now. The longer this happens the more worrisome it becomes. The EUR looks like it is being stubborn towards a drop and the JPY is looking like it may drop below the 100.00 area again. The talk about further interest rate cuts isn't doing much to helps its case either.

Right now I'm not strong on either direction but steering towards a decline. Purely based on what the VIX is telling me right now so it's not a solid directional bias. As usual I'm willing to see what happens on the day and go with the flow.

My Focus

I had trouble with my focus today so tomorrow I am going to work on it a bit. I am going to watch the 5 minute chart and switch to the 2 minute chart only when I see us bouncing from the SMA in a slow trending market. The Tick is a big focus for me and I am going to continue to note it in my journal with my ten minute interval entries. I am going to stress my trade management with my time stop. I shouldn't be reverting to anything different unless it has been specified in my plan. I will get better gains in my trading when I bring back the 2 lot trading so for now I just stick with making sure my one lot works.

 

[jasont]

Thankyou

I only just discovered the section where you can see reputation and comments people have given. I was just about flattened when I saw how many people had made supportive comments. Folks I want to say a big thank you to everyone who has posted comments in those as they mean a lot to me.

Reading through I can see many people offering support and quite a few people learning something. I'm pretty youthful in the trading arena, only two years, but I am extremely happy that others are able to learn from this journal. It truly did have me amazed at all the comments so thank you, it does give the extra push to keep going and stick to the plan.

 

[jasont]

Trading For 15th April

Here is the details of my trading for 15th April:

So far the pre market has been soaring from about 7am. There was a quick decline at 8.30am which was when we got the PPI report however the market bounced back straight away and has stayed solid. Creeping up the SMA on the 2 minute chart right now so will be interesting to see if it continues during market hours. There are no more important reports due out for the rest of the day so the market is left to itself. All the news right now seems to be about the higher Oil prices. I'd be surprised if we can hold the optomism in the face of higher energy costs.

9:32 Well we have a big gap open and it appears to be supported by the stocks thus far. The Tick is in positive territory although it is only early just yet. We haven't stalled at the gap up which might be a clue to how we are likely to trade the morning.

10:57 Damn, my PC froze on me and I hadn't saved the rest of this journal. Anyway, we have had a strong move down and now we look as though we may be forming a base here. I missed a couple of short trades earlier due to being a touch slow. Still am yet to see a decent upward move yet so I am sitting on the sidelines mainly, especially for any possible long trades. We may be seeing a bounce just now though.

11:07 Saw a possible opportunity to short the market at 1331.50 with the stall we were having and the Tick extremes on the long side. Didn't take the trade though as I wasn't confident in the move. I couldn't work out if that sideways move was a build up of strength or a pause before further decline. Now I see it was a pause.

11:26 We have had a decent sized drop and now seeing a bounce. Tick looks weary above the zero line and not very strong. Big rejection from lower prices right now so not very keen to get short just yet. Will give it some more time to play out for the moment. Feeling a bit out of sync after my PC froze on me.

11:29 Bah, I'm actually gonna call it a night. I've lost my focus and not concentrating 100%. Irritating about the PC freeze but crap happens. Unfortunately I have let it disrupt my trading.

Daily Wrap Up

I think to become a consistently profitable trader, you need to be able to deal with small inconveniences and things suddenly changing. The day was going pretty well until my PC froze. I was patient during the big initial drop and missed a couple of short trades during it but that happens. However once my PC froze and I realized I lost my journal since I last saved it, it threw me. After that occurred I just couldn't get my rhythm back and any trade would have been made in frustration. There was a good opportunity I saw at 11:07 to short the market but I wasn't confident on the move due to missing most of the prior action before it.

Apart from the freezing of my PC I did well. I was keeping an eye on the 2 minute chart as we had the initial drop and was trying to place a couple of trades from bounces off the SMA. Once we broke that I switched back to the 5 minute chart. I was keeping focus on the Tick and picked up on quite a few possible trades from it. For following my focus I give myself an 'A' but if dealing with minor problems was a part of it I probably would score myself less.

Right now I need to be aware of second guessing myself. Sometimes I pull trade orders because of minor fluctuations only to have them move in my direction shortly after. It is important that I don't regress to my earlier stages of being fearful of having a position in the market.

 

[jasont]

Trade Setup For 16th April

Here are the zones I'm watching for the 16th April:

Resistance

1337.25-1337.75
1339-1339.75
1344.75-1345.50
1351-1351.75

Support

1332-1331.50
1328.75-1328
1325.50-1325
1319.50-1319

My Outlook

Ok right now the market seems to have made a turn for the better. After yesterday's rejection of breaking the current uptrend it looks as though we might travel higher. I'm not sure how long it will last though. The VIX continued lower which could mark the continuation of a decline on the VIX even though it is idling around the overbought region.

The DJIA, SP and NDX have formed a common pattern which occurs in good trends. The major concern for a decent bull run right now is the increase in Oil prices and Gold appears as though it may take another shot at moving higher. This tends to signal money flowing back into the commodities and energy sectors which previously appeared to be slowing down. The USD is beginning to lose ground again which is not a good sign. If the Fed cut interest rates again it is likely we will see further decline of the USD.

My Focus

I'm going to keep my focus the same as yesterday with the charts. Risk and money management are staying the same. I am focusing on keeping my trade management the same with the normal time and price stops. I am going to take note of times I put trade orders in and then remove them as well as noting the outcome if I do so. This should help me clarify whether removing my orders is a good idea or not. At first glance I don't believe it is because I commonly have the right trade idea.

 

[jasont]

Trading For 16th April

Ok here is what happened for me on the 16th April:

We have some pretty interesting pre market action because it is very similar to yesterday. We have been trending upwards since about 6am today and had a decent drop at 8.30am which bounced back straight away. There was the Core CPI and housing starts at that time which no doubt caused the momentary volatility. We look as though we are going to open just over ten points above yesterdays close.

9:33 We had the open with a fair sized gap. We have stalled at a possible double top area with the pre market action so it will be interesting to see if the market pulls through this. The Tick is showing stocks are opening in the positive by buying up the bids. Still it's too early to get a good indication from that.

9:45 Ok I took a short trade at 1348 looking for a fade of the opening gap. Out of character to what I ordinarily trade but I just saw the market struggling up here and some decline looks imminent. I got out for a half point loss when I saw the market bounce from the SMA on the 2 minute chart. Fading the opening gap is part of my plan but it's not my strongest aspect of my trading so I rarely look to trade it. I am glad I took the trade, it has helped cement why I have stayed away from doing it. i didn't feel right in the trade even though the pause looked good for a shorting opportunity.

9:49 Currently the market is soldiering higher with the Tick supporting the rise. I'm going to stay on the sidelines now until we see what this market is doing. It is continuing the bounces off the SMA on the 2 minute chart that it was doing during pre market.

9:58 Took a long trade at 1348.75 for a bounce off the SMA on the 2 minute chart and the Tick hitting the zero line. Market hit the profit target of 1350 but didn't take my order, I gave it more time to reach there again and take me but it hung around the 1349.25 area. I got caught up in the quick moves of the 2 minute chart and got out for a 1 tick gain. Lost my cool a bit.

10:09 I'm a bit puzzled on this market right now. It is sliding sideways and the Tick is remaining positive yet not strongly. I'm cautious about this big gap up we have had and have a feeling part of it is likely to be filled. We may not get the whole way down but some of it. The Tick is showing a decrease in buying from the stocks. The YM looks about the same as the ES but the NQ appears dead flat. Why have a market at all?

10:20 Ok so we have just had a strong move into new highs for the day. I'm going to put my thoughts that we are likely to fill the gap to the side for the moment and work on this uptrend which has developed. The Tick shows the stocks have gained a second wind so I'll go with the flow.

10:32 Not much going on really. This upward move has continued without as much as a whimper. I'll just hang out here on the sidelines and wait for it to offer some opportunity. Right now its not my kind of market. The Tick is remaining above the zero line pretty well.

10:43 Ok I had a buy order in at 1353.75 but I pulled it. Wanted to wait a little bit longer on the move.

10:49 There we go. After typing what I just did above I kept a close eye on the market idea I had. It was a bounce from the SMA on the 2 minute chart and the hitting of the zero line on the Tick. I put in another buy order at 1353.75 and was taken. It took a bit of time to show some promise and I was almost about to get out according to my time stop when it kicked up a bit. A little longer and it took my profit target at 1355.25. It was a bit of a struggle to get going but I am happy I held my ground on it and noted the pulling of my order at 10:43.

10:52 We are still seeing the uptrend going strongly. We have only had one pullback since this thing took off and the Tick is still yet to move far below the zero line. So far the most stocks selling at the bids at any one time has been 243. The ranges of the candles up here are getting smaller but I'm not sure if this uptrend is over just yet. Granted I wouldn't mind a decent pullback so I wouldn't be as nervous trading long after such a big gap open. For some reason I am just waiting for this thing to fall from the sky. Something odd to note is that the bids and asks have been maintaining 1000 lots most of the time. Usually you see them appear and then disappear but today they seem to be sticking around the entire time. Usually in a strong uptrend you see the orders stay in the bids the entire time and vice versa. Today they are staying in both. It makes it hard to get a good idea of solid orders.

11:05 Things are starting to think out towards this 1358 resistance. The moves are smaller and the Tick has been declining. I'm not willing to jump on the short side until I get a solid indication we are changing direction. For that I'm looking for a big and quick rejection or some drawn out decline in acceleration. Similar to what we have seen but it doesn't look week enough just yet.

11:15 There is another possible long trade to take advantage of the SMA but we have gone a touch below it and I just don't trust the long side right now. I probably have more faith in a short trade right now. I could be way off here but things look as though they will travel lower before higher for the moment. The Tick is now playing around the zero line after its decline. (File- Save 😛)

11:24 The Devil made me do it. I got in on a short position at 1354.50 with a stop at 1356.50 with my profit target at 1353.25. The market sat there and wasn't pushing higher or lower, even as the Tick went below the zero line. Too much of a 50/50 trade for my liking so I got out at break even. Wasn't the best trade idea but I felt I had to test it. It still looks more likely to go down than up but the edge isn't that greatly in my favor. The idea was a rollover from the 1358 high. The Tick weakness and the SMA resistance that seems to have built up on the 2 minute chart.

11:34 This sideways move has really turned into a neutral zone. I haven't seen anything like this before. I have seen a few slow moving trends but never a slow sideways range no greater than 2 points. This is a great learning opportunity. What ever edge was present before has now become what is likely to be a "who has accumulated more contracts" battle between the big guys. I'm almost thinking this is the big guys unloading their long positions they have held. Market demand is possibly buying up the contracts the big guys no longer want to hold and they are doing it without setting off the alarm bells. Definitely a left field theory but we'll see what happens. Could be why I was seeing so many 1000 lot orders on both sides.

11:45 Still going. The Tick is not having the same effect it was having around the zero line so I'm presuming the buying excitement has diminished at least momentarily. There are big orders still on the bids side though I wonder if they are soon to disappear to accommodate a big drop. Whichever way we go from here, it has taken a while to get it going.

12:01 Ok time to call it a night for me. I have been bored stiff watching this past hour of market action go by. At first it was interesting, now I'm just over it. I made quite a few trades today and possibly over traded. The first two trades were a bit unnecessary however I am glad I made them. It just helps me clarify that patience is much better in the market than constant action. No point trying to squeeze more from the market than it's willing to give. The last trade was the right idea but we turned into this long drawn out mess. All in all I was happy with what I learnt from my trading today.

Daily Wrap Up

Well what a day it turned out to be. Where we had that major pause I thought we would take a dive but instead we spent another 2 hours idling about before taking off again. Definitely new type of market action compared to what I am accustomed to.

After further thought, the first trade is the only one which I can honestly say was not a good trade. I am much better at trading according to the pieces of the puzzle rather than trying to anticipate them before they occur. Some people are quite good at doing that but it's not one of my strengths. I am glad I took the trade as it has helped reinforce the reasons why I don't trade that early into the day. For me it feels more like a gamble simply because I don't interpret the open so well.

The rest of the day's trading I was happy with. My second trade was aimed at a continuation of what we had been seeing during the pre market hours and it was the right idea, I was just a bit early on it. My profit target I set was hit but my order wasn't taken. I gave it a little bit more time to get back there but it took too long so I scrapped the trade for a small gain.

The third trade was good and it showed that my daily focus helps me when I set goals. I made a point of noting the order I had in the market and then removed. Once I typed it I realized that the trade idea was still good and I put my order back in and was taken. There was some initial hesitation on the move but after some time it kicked up and took my target.

The last trade was an attempt to capitalize on a rollover from these highs but the market just didn't want to budge. The extended flattened trading range wiped the edge I had and it became a 50/50 market. At that point I was happy that I cut the trade for break even and stayed out of the market for the rest of the day.

I mentioned that I possibly over traded the day in my journal. In a fresh view on the day I think only the first trade was one that I would say was unnecessary. The other three were good trade ideas. In fact I am quite happy with the number of trades bar the first one that I made. I have learnt a lot from the trading day and it has reinforced my trading plan to me. I am growing more confidence in the way I trade and I think it was seen in my trading.

For following my focus today I give myself a 'B'. I made a trade in the first 20 minutes which was something I was keeping in my focus. Apart from that I followed my set focus well. I switched to the 2 minute chart when I recognized we were creeping up it from the pre market action. I also was keeping a stern eye on the Tick chart and staying up to date with it. When I placed an order and pulled it before it was taken I noted it in my journal. It actually helped me assess why I pulled it and I could see that it was a valid trade idea and deserved to be taken.

I followed my risk and money management well. My trade management was good and I utilized my time stops well.

 

[jasont]

Trade Setup For 17th April

Here are the zones I'm watching for 17th April:

Resistance

1370.75-1371.50
1374.75-1375.50
1377.50-1378.25
1383-1383.50

Support

1364.75-1364.25
1359.75-1359
1353.50-1352.75
1347-1346.50

My Outlook

Things appear a bit odd to me right now. The DJIA, SP and NDX charts are telling me we look likely to attempt to break out of the range we have been in. Yet Gold and Oil continue their strength and the USD continues it's decline. The VIX took another decent move lower yesterday which could be a signaling a change in the recent upward trend it had been following. It is bizarre because the news we have had recently hasn't exactly been fantastic but the market seems to be taking it in its stride.

I have mentioned before that we have possibly already factored in a recession and are looking ahead. Although if that is the case it does still seem odd that we would be optimistic in the face of higher energy prices and commodity prices for business. It's not just metals either, it is Cotton, Soybeans, Corn, and Sugar as well. Most showed a decline after the March lows but now are rebounding pretty strongly. Short term I think the outlook is up but longer term may be not so glossy if higher energy and commodity prices remain.

My Focus

I was pleased with how I worked my focus today so I am going to continue it into tomorrow. I am also going to reinforce the no trading in the first 20 minutes rule again because it is not one of my strengths. I will continue to make notes on orders I place and then pull so I can assess them. It worked well for me yesterday so I will keep it up. The focus switch to the 2 minute chart in the trending market worked well yesterday so I'll continue that should we see that type of market. Otherwise I am sticking to the 5 minute chart and always watching the Tick. Money and Risk management remain the same as they are working well for me. So are the trade management rules with the time stop.

 

[jasont]

Trading For 17th April

Here is the journal for 17th April:

After market trading has been declining so we are likely to open with a fair sized gap down. There was the unemployment claims which didn't seem to make much of an impact. No other major news will be released for the rest of teh day.

9:37 Market has opened about 8 points lower and has been steady since. The Tick opened in the negative and the stocks appear as though they aren't opening in a positive fashion. Right now it's a matter of sit and wait to see what happens. Recently the days have seen consistent moves in the Tick stay either under or over the zero line which is happening so far.

9:47 We are currently hitting the 1364 resistance and the Tick so far has shown rejection from the stocks for higher prices. Still too early for me to attempt a trade at this point but it does look like some strength will need to come in from the stocks pretty soon. Big orders are sitting in the ask column which is having downward pressure.

9:57 We have pushed a bit lower now but not made new lows. Stocks seem to be still working out the kinks just after opening. Nothing solid is standing out just yet, I was tempted to short the move from 1363.50 but decided to wait for something with a bigger edge.

10:07 Tick is pretty indecisive at this point. We are having trouble pushing higher and we are having trouble maintaining selling. 2 minute chart isn't providing much guidance in the slow market so will take a back seat until things unfold. Will wait for the market to show me its intentions. Have hit the 1359 support and stopped currently. Stuck in between the S&R zones right now.

10:25 Ok now we have opened up a bit and taken a run higher. The Tick is sticking above the zero line now and we have made new highs for the day. NQ doesn't look as healthy as the ES and YM at this point. A small rejection has occurred so I'll keep a close eye on any long trades.

10:37 Missed a long trade at 1365.50. Looking for a bounce off the SMA on the 2 minute as well as using the R turned S as a safe haven for the stop with the EMA. Not sure if we'll make a new high for the day or turn into a 1-2-3 top right now but either way it would have been a nice scalp trade. Not to worry.

10:47 My order bar was running behind a bit so I disconnected and reconnected to my trading platform and now the Tick chart isn't working properly. Will hopefully get it going again soon.

10:58 Bugger, just missed a trade entry for a long position at 1364. Order was in and market came down to 1364 but left without my order on board. The previous R was acting as decent S and the Tick rejected the recent selling pressure. Market made it to my profit target area at 1365.75 too. Doesn't mean it would have been filled though.

11:14 Hmm, got in a long trade at 1362.75 for a bounce near the EMA and the Tick rejection being shown. Market was stuck around 1362.50 and wasn't moving up like I'd like to see on a bounce. Took too long to move so I got out for break even. I didn't like what I was seeing with the SMA and had a fair bit of resistance just above. Probably entered a touch too early on this one. I think we may be turning the tables on this upward move as well.

11:30 Market rolled down after a small sideways move. I was torn between a longer term bounce and a momentum short trade so I stayed out of any trades. The market looks as though it has one last chance here to save its uptrend but the Tick is showing stocks are slowly losing strength. Will be interesting to see how the rest of the day plays out.

11:53 Ok I'm calling it a night. Things have slowed down now and I am losing a bit of my concentration. I tried to get in on a few trades today but they just kept escaping me. The one trade I did get was the right idea but a touch too early. It did end up hitting my profit target but didn't get any further than that. I'm happy I was making attempts for the trades, just some days I am a bit behind the eight ball. Not to worry.

Daily Wrap Up

Today I felt like a kid who sees the bus pull up to the bus stop but I'm 400 meters away and have to run like hell to get on board. Only to be 50 meters away and the bus pulls off without me. I guess there is no other way to describe it.

I was doing well with my focus on the 5 minute chart and the Tick chart. I didn't place any orders and remove them before they could be taken, the only orders I removed were the ones that the market left without me on board. The one trade I was in was a good trade idea but just didn't get going as quickly as I'd like to see. I was happy I put my time stop in place and got out.

I am happy with the trading day and will take the missing of opportunities on the chin. I have only been watching this market for 7 months so it is still relatively new to me. As time goes by I will get better at catching the moves and won't miss so many.

There isn't really much more I can say. For following my focus I am giving myself an 'A'. I was switching between the 2 minute and 5 minute charts as necessary and keeping a close eye on the Tick. The one trade I was in had good trade management with the execution of my time stop when it wasn't moving. Right now I'll just focus on tomorrow and see what happens.

 

[jasont]

Trade Setup For 18th April

Here are the areas I'm keeping an eye on for 18th April:

Resistance

1374-1374.50
1377.50-1378.25
1383-1383.50
1389

Support

1366.75-1366
1362.50-1362
1359.25-1358.50
1353.50-1352.75

My Outlook

The next few days are going to be interesting. At first glance the charts of the DJIA, NDX and SP look as though we are getting ready to break out of this range. However the moves up are not lasting which has me question the current upside moves. I find myself wanting to say we look like moving higher yet things aren't exactly supporting that idea. The VIX is struggling at an overbought area and could possibly whipsaw any moment.

With Gold and Oil steadily rising right now it could be a situation where the straw breaks the camel's back. I wouldn't trust the upside moves right now if I was trading overnight time frames. Something just doesn't seem to be in sync and the USD is also showing that. It isn't plummeting right now but it is declining. So I'm sitting on the fence right now with a slight bearish bias, at least until things start looking more harmonious.

My Focus

My focus is staying the same again. I am doing well with the focus on the charts and will aim to keep that going consistently. The journal is still going to be used to document orders I place and then remove so I can see any possibly patterns arise. My risk, money and trade management has been going well so it will remain the same and strive for consistency.

 

[jasont]

Trading for the 18th April

Here is my journal for the 18th April:

There are no major reports out today so it may be pretty quiet. The after market hours action has seen a strong upward move. It began at roughly 6am so I am suspecting some good news came out. I'm not too fussed over what it was exactly, the result is important though. We have been following the SMA on the 2 minute chart during pre market so it will be interesting to see if that travels over into market hours.

9:33 We have opened about 20 points higher than yesterdays close so it is a big one. We have come down a little bit and I'd suspect a decline is likely into the first half an hour or so to get rid of some of the over excitement. We could also see a steady uptrending day as well if we looked at the recent types of market days we have been seeing. The Tick has opened with enthusiasm indicating strong open prices from stocks. Early still so will see how the day pans out.

9:45 Alright we are seeing a decline currently which isn't strongly supported by the stocks as seen in the Tick. I am a bit bored with the market at the moment. The Gap up is hard on my eyes because the candles are smaller on my screen due to the big difference of the lows of yesterday and highs of today. Usually after an hour or so it's ok. So far we have been holding off a move below the zero line on the Tick which has been quite common recently. Late last year and very early this year it didn't seem to be as common, maybe it has something to do with me trading the open instead of the close now. Either way it does appear that we are getting more directional days as opposed to back and forth action.

9:59 Well I guess something good did come out of this slow market. I found a tool to zoom in on sections of the chart. How handy. Ok this decline is still continuing and the SMA was rejected on the 2 minute. It might serve as a good roof on this market. The Tick still isn't appearing as though the stocks are wanting to decline strongly though.

10:19 I'm still waiting on this market. Nothing much has happened, further decline and also some decline from the Tick. We have flattened a bit over the past ten minutes so we may see a bounce. Need to get a good idea of what this market is about.

10:31 This market is pretty tiring. I had an order in at 1386.25 but the market moved away from it without taking it. May have been a good thing as the market isn't dropping like you would expect. The Tick did look as though it may have been switching to trading beneath the zero line. It has now just kicked back up and so has the market. A possible 1-2-3 bottom could be in place. This is a very slow market and what is worse is that it's not trending strongly either. One of those hit and hope type markets for the way I trade. Not my idea of good trading. Hopefully it can pick up a bit.

10:50 There is a potential double top up here. I'm not 100% mentally in the game right now. I'm tired and seem to be looking at the market without good clarity. We are right near the day's highs but we keep bouncing back from any moves beneath the zero line on the Tick. Right now I'm best staying out of the market and keeping today as a watching day unless my mood improves.

11:00 Thats it for me. This market is not one I like to trade and I am not in a great frame of mind to trade it. I'm tired and lacking concentration. I will call it a week and work towards next week.

Daily Wrap Up

Right from the beginning I didn't really have my head in the game. For some reason I was a bit lethargic and lacking concentration. It didn't help that the market was pretty slow moving either. I tend to lose my concentration quite easily in slow moving markets. For following my focus I give myself an 'A' because I wasn't going to trade when I didn't feel 100%. I was keeping a close eye on the 5 minute chart but also tracking the 2 minute chart in the slow market. The Tick was closely monitored as is required. There was no trade, money or risk management needed because I didn't enter any trades. I mentioned an order I put in but removed however it was due to the market running from the price not pulling it for no good reason.

Weekly Update

I call this week "My Broker Has To Eat Too". The reason being is that I seemed to make quite a few trades this week but my account never went anywhere. I have just paid brokerage and learnt a lot.

I must say that I had a bit of difficulty trading the market this week. I'm not sure if the reason was me or if it was the nature of the market. Monday I found it difficult to find footing in the market as it wasn't providing much in the way of clear movement to me. Tuesday threw me when my PC froze and I lost my journal. Wednesday provided some good opportunities and was probably the only real solid day I had. Thursday I found myself behind the market trying to catch up. Then Friday I was just mentally exhausted and lacking concentration.

Wow I can certainly come up with some good excuses when I want to. Either way I am willing to put this week behind me and focus on the week to come. The plus for last week was that I came up even points wise and down on capital brokerage wise. Considering how difficult I found it I think I did ok. A great quote from Thomas Wayne (yes Bruce Wayne's dad in Batman" is "Bruce, why do we fall? So we can learn to pick ourselves back up".

 

[jasont]

Trade Setup For 21st April

Here are the zones I'm looking for on the 21st April:

Resistance

1393-1393.50
1397.75-1398.25
1400.5

Support

1385.75-1385
1378.25-1377.50
1374.50-1374
1366.75-1366

My Outlook

Well I was way off for Friday's outlook. That doesn't bother me though because I am no fortune teller nor am I too strong headed to admit when I'm wrong. We had an interesting day on Friday as we hit pretty much right on the recent range high.

The DJIA has broken the range and so has the NDX. The SP looks to be the last one to make the move but things look promising on the charts right now. It could be that we have made the market lows in January and found support in March to back it up. The NYA is right at the EMA 50 on the weekly chart and historically since 2003 it has bounced after reaching below it. It will be interesting to see if we break up through it to continue the historical pattern.

The VIX has broken its trending move and is continuing to decline in the face of being considered overbought. It seems there is a decline in traders willing to hold on to bought put options for the moment which is a good sign. Gold has rolled over which is a good as it usually implies money is being placed in more lucrative investments.

Oil continues to soar right now and there is a bit of news about it recently. Apparently OPEC claim Oil isn't controlled by supply and demand. Funny, I guess they just want to keep supply low whilst they offset the USD's recent decline. If Oil stays at $70 but the USD value is less, that equates to massive losses in revenue for them. I am guessing that once the USD gets it's strength back we will see a decline in the cost of Oil and an increase in supply or decrease in demand.

No wonder Oil is in such high demand right now, it is cheaper for Oil companies to buy it with the USD being so low and then claiming the high costs for fuel is due to the high Oil prices. Yet, though I haven't done the calculations right now, I'm guessing they are getting the Oil for roughly a similar price they did a year ago with the exchange rate.

The USD is looking like it is gaining a bit of strength and stability after last weeks small decline. Against the YEN it has begun another push higher. Possibly in the face of recent news announcements it has been shown that the economy is picking up pace again. Indicating less need for continued efforts from the Fed to increase activity in the economy. It is likely that we will see further cuts from the Fed next week but I'm guessing they will be less aggressive in the future.

So after all that waffling on by me, my bias is to the upside. We may have some pausing going on over the next few days but things appear to be looking pretty strong right now. The action down at the Jan and March lows is evidence of a strengthening, how long it will last is anyones guess. Will we see 14,000 on the Dow before the end of the year is on a few peoples minds right now. For me I look at each trading day and try not to get caught up in the speculation.

My Focus

This week the focus is on having fun. Last week was a trying week so I'm getting back to basics and enjoying watching the market action. I truly do enjoy the battles that go on each day between buyers and sellers however last week I forgot a bit why I trade. So the focus on the charts, trade, money and risk management stays the same. I'm keeping up the journal and I think I'll go back to posting the charts up again. However I'll just put the times in and note the trades. I will make it a bit easier and quicker to get done.

 

[jasont]

Trading For 21st April

Here is my journal for 21st April:

Today we don't have any major news reports that will largely affect the market. The weekend market was pretty stable until about 7am today which has seen a bit of a decline. Currently we look to be opening pretty flat with a small downward gap.

9:36 We have opened with a small gap down and hit the 1384.75 support area and traveled up since. The Tick is still below the zero line where it opened so stocks may not be supporting the move higher as they open. It is still early so once the stocks are opened and trading well I can get a better idea of where we are headed. There could be some interesting resistance around 1388.

9:50 Market reached just over 1388 and has paused. The Tick moved into the positive but cooled off a bit. Hasn't shown much of a rollover just yet but we are heading into some EMA's that held their ground on Friday.

10:01 We have had a break to the downside of the small pause we had. The Tick is sticking around the zero line even though there appears to be selling pressure it is quickly bought back. How far this decline goes will be able to give me a point of reference for the day. There is a lot of orders stacked on the ask column right now.

10:12 I put a long order in at 1385.75 for a long trade with the double bottom but pulled it before it was taken. The reason was that the Tick isn't showing good buying strength right now and the SMA on the 2 minute looks like it is holding. Could be a bad decision to pull it but for now I'm not comfortable being in the move. It just doesn't seem right.

10:14 Just wanted to note that it was a good idea to pull the order. We broke the double bottom and are now traveling lower.

10:23 Ok I took a bit of a risky trade just here. I saw the rejection of low prices come in and the rise in the Tick over the past few candles. I was taken for a long trade at 1383 and put my profit target at an easy to reach place just in case it was only a test at 1383.50. My stop was at 1382 as a move below the previous candle's low negates the pattern. I was taken after a short pause and the move looks good for something possibly bigger. Only problem is that it's going against the grain so early in the day.

10:26 The Tick has shown rejection to buying by the stocks again. It was on the rise but couldn't hold the move. The rejection shown just earlier looks to be in trouble as we have another dip from the SMA on the 2 minute chart. Right now I think buying in this market may not be the best of ideas. Things seem to be pretty gloomy.

10:36 Nothing much has been happening. We continued the decline and the Tick is still hitting the zero line like a brick wall. I am waiting for a solid move higher to possibly short if it occurs. From the look of the recent move a decent bounce could be likely.

10:50 I love when my patience kicks in. I was looking at shorting the small pause just earlier for a downward stair step pattern but held off because I suspected another push higher was coming. Thankfully I listened to myself and held back on the trade.

10:55 Bugger I had an order in at 1384 but pulled it to wait a bit longer. Unfortunately it rolled over pretty quickly and escaped me before I could get my order in again. Would have been a nice trade as well. Bad idea pulling the order on that one. I can't allow myself to get frustrated on that though. The market will be here long after I am dead and buried so many more opportunities will present themselves. Just time to enjoy the market action and the psychology.

11:05 The market is currently showing signs of a double bottom but the action isn't supported by the stocks it would seem. Although we have had a decent move lower on the Tick it is not an extreme oversold indication.

11:17 I had a short order in at 1384 but pulled it because I think we may see the tables turn after this double bottom. The Tick is now bouncing up from the zero line and the SMA on the 2 minute chart seems to be less of a resistance now for the momentum. I could be way off here but my thoughts are that we could see some buying come into this market. There is a fair bit of resistance against it though.

11:25 I'm still an amateur. I shorted the market at 1384.50 and put my profit target in at 1383.50. Only I hit the sell instead of buy as my profit target so instead of getting out for a point gain I get in for a second position. I immediately hit the buy at market on both contracts to get out and it wiped my half a point gain I already had on the day. A bit irritating however I am pleased that I dealt with the situation straight away instead of trying to ride it. Anyhow the trade idea was against the EMA on the 5 minute chartm the resistance at 1385 and the Tick Divergence. You know what, even though the silly mistake cost me, I am happy to see the trade idea work out.

11:34 I was able to regroup, recognise the prevailing uptrend that has occurred and traded a long position. There was a bounce off the SMA on the 2 minute chart and a bounce off the zero line on the Tick so I entered at 1384 with a stop at 1382.75 and profit target at 1385 with the recent high. Market pretty much went straight to my profit target. A good trade and I am happy I was able to forget the mistake just made and look at the market without frustration or revenge on the mind.

11:40 I'm actually going to call it a night here. I'm happy with how I recovered from a silly mistake and think it's best to leave the market on a high note. Kind of like a comedian leaving on a joke that gets a good response. I'm happy with my trading efforts and how I was able to interpret the market today. I am disappointed in my silly mistake with the orders but I'll take it on the chin. No one else is to blame for something like that and I am willing to take responsibility. I'll just keep plugging along and keep it locked in the memory vault as a reminder to be careful with my orders.

Daily Wrap Up

Well it was definitely a learning day today. The market action was good, it was moving in a way that best suits my style of trading. I did well with my trades apart from the lack of concentration which led to turning a profitable trade into a losing one. The trading ideas all had weight behind them and were good quick little trades.

I am giving myself a 'C' for following my daily focus. The reason being that my trade management wasn't up to scratch and resulted in a blunder. Otherwise my focus on the charts was good and my money and risk management was also well handled. I am proud of the way I responded to the mistake I made. I could have tried to worm my way out of the situation and waited but instead I took it on the chin and got out straight away. I put it down to experience and moved on. Another plus in the risk management column. Hopefully I can learn from this mistake and treat it as a once off problem.

Trade 1: 0.5 Win
Trade 2: 0.25 Win
Trade 3: 0.75 Loss
Trade 4: 1.0 Win

Daily Result: 1 Point Gain

 

[jasont]

Trade Setup For 22nd April

Here are the zones I'm watching for on 22nd April:

Resistance

1393-1393.50
1397.75-1398.25
1400.5

Support

1387.25-1386.75
1383.25-1382.75
1381.25-1380.75
1378.25-1377.50

Market Outlook

We have slowed down after breaking out of the range on the DJIA and the SP is yet to break it currently. The NDX pushed higher yesterday which is a good sign for the tech sector. A few days of slow down are common after making a large gain like we saw on Friday and it's common for the market to test the range it just broke out of. Things still seem to be looking ok for the market.

The VIX has certainly settled down quite a bit with the volatility during April. This is a good sign for investors as the swings in moves seem to be less violent. For traders it may mark a slow down. Oil still pursues it's crusade for higher prices and Gold is still showing reluctance to bounce higher. This divergence between Gold and Oil is not commonly seen and when it occurs they eventually line up again.

Will Gold rise or will Oil plummet? I think if the USD gains some strength we may see Oil drop from the highs. However the opposite is true for Gold usually. It seems the USD may play a big part in this situation. As it stands the USD isn't making any strong moves recently. Is this in anticipation of the Fed meeting next week on Interest Rates? For the moment it appears as though direction is stale.

I'm still thinking a few slow days of back and forth may eventuate before a possible push higher. The range has been broken on two of three indexes and hasn't reversed sharply. Things are mixed on other fronts so it's not a strong bias to the upside. I'll just keep my eye on things and work with what the market gives me. As normal I am always open to change my mind at the drop of a hat.

My Focus

My Focus is really helping me stay on track lately. I don't think anything needs to be changed right now. There was the issue with placing a sell stop order instead of a buy limit but I think that was a momentary lack of concentration. I am of the opinion it will be a once off mistake and something I will monitor in case it occurs again. The risk and money management is working well for me and doesn't need to be adjusted just yet. Once I am comfortable with my results I will look at incorporating the two lot system again but for the moment things will stay the same.

 

[jasont]

Trading For 22nd April

Here is my entries for 22nd April:

At 10am today we have the Existing Home Sales report which is likely going to make an impact. Right now the market looks like it will open 4-5 points lower. In the after market action it had a dip down to the low 1380's but kicked back up. It has been pretty mixed but the pre market has been in a steep sell. At the moment the Tech stocks seem to be producing good earnings reports whilst the financials are performing sadly. Hardly a surprise on the financial side of things. Currently we are riding down the SMA on the 2 minute chart which will be interesting to see if it continues into the market hours.

9:35 The market gapped down by about 4 points and initially moved lower but has momentarily stabilized at the 1382 area. Whether this will be good support or if it gets blown through is still yet to be seen. The Tick is showing stocks opening pretty negatively so far. Early in the day right now so things could easily change. Will wait for more information from the market. We still seem to be riding the SMA on the 2 minute chart.

9:47 The Tick is still staying below the zero line indicating trend down. The market has been slowly moving down although now it looks like it may be picking up some pace. I'm going to stay out of trades until we see what happens at 10am with the housing report. I don't want to get caught on any trades that get blown out due to volatility increase.

10:02 The housing report seems to have made a positive impact on the market so far. It will be interesting to see if it carries through or not. The Tick moved strongly into the positive for the first time today and the SMA on the 2 minute was broken through. Time will tell.

10:14 It appears we have carried through with the move and things are looking pretty positive. The Tick has made a decent move above the zero line and stocks have rejected the idea of selling back down. There is some substantial resistance ahead so longs will need to be cautious up here.

10:29 The move higher has been reversed and we just made new lows for the day. I was keeping an eye out for a possibly double bottom but it appears this thing didn't want a bar of it. The Tick after it's momentary rise to glory above the zero line has now gone back to struggling to get over the line. I am a bit tired tonight and finding it hard to see good entries. However there is nothing like sitting here in the stillness of watching the market with Pink Floyd burning in the background.

10:51 I had an order in at 1381 and the market moved down without me. I took my order out as we have bounced back above the zero line on the Tick right now. It may not be ready to roll over just yet. The SMA on the 13 minute seems to be broken through to the upside which is usually a good momentum indicator. It may be best looking for long trades in this market.

10:57 I got in a short trade at 1382 for a position against the EMA as resistance and Tick divergence. I had my order in and tried to pull it before it was taken because I didn't like the look of the market for the downside. I was too late and the order was taken. I let the position ride for a bit and then still convinced it wasn't looking good I put in an order to get out. Got out for a 1 tick loss. I don't mind that, was an attempt but not one which seemed to follow through.

11:02 Seems I should have listened to my own advice. We have traveled higher, will be cautious about any short trades here. Tick is bouncing from just below the Zero line and market is slowly moving up.

11:13 I think I'm going to refrain from placing any more trades today. My head doesn't seem to be in the game and I'm not picking up on the market signals as well as I could. I'll see how long I can keep watching for but I may call it a night soon.

11:27 Market has moved into a sideways range which isn't terribly interesting. Obviously some volume will be switching hands and it wouldn't surprise me if we saw a kick higher here. The retracement we have seen over the past half an hour has been quite week. The Tick has shown stocks are struggling to keep hitting orders at the ask though. It is a tough area we are in and I'm not at my peak so I am sitting on the sidelines. In fact I think it's best if I call it a night. I didn't find myself in a great state for trading and am happy the trade I did get in was just a small loss as I picked up on the market struggling to go my way. Will get some rest and move on to tomorrow.

Daily Wrap Up

I had a bit of an off day today. I was a bit tired and it resulted in me having a hard time assessing the market. Thankfully I recognized this and toned my trading attempts right down. I did get in one trade but was able to manage it well in the face of it not being a great position to hold. I am happy to accept the fact that occasionally these days occur when I am not feeling up to the game. It is a downfall of trading the way I do but there are many more days that I feel good about my trading than I feel not so good.

For following my focus I give myself a 'B'. I was struggling with watching the charts today. My eyes and concentration were wandering. I am happy I picked up on my physical state and it was good that I didn't try to trade heavily. I did well with my risk, money and trade management for the trade I did get in. My journal entries were maintained the way I like to keep them. It is a day that wasn't really hitting the right chords with me and I think I did well to sit back and just take in the market information instead.

Trade 1: 0.25 Loss

Daily Result: 0.25 Loss

 

[jasont]

Trade Setup For 23rd April

Here are my zones for 23rd April:

Resistance

1382.75-1383.25
1385.25
1386.75-1387.25
1393-1393.50

Support

1378.25-1377.50
1373.50-1372.75
1371-1370.75
1366.75-1366

My Outlook

Things seem to be getting interesting here. We have traveled down the past couple of days yet they haven't been very convincing just yet. In fact the DJIA and NDX are resting at the previous range high. If we are going to continue higher I think some signs will come out in the next couple of days. If we don't get those signs we could retrace back into the previous zone and things won't look so great from there for the bulls. The NYA is struggling at that EMA 50 on the weekly chart. It too looks like it will need to break above pretty soon otherwise things will look pretty dismal.

The VIX has changed it's tune from the big volatility uptrending it previously had shown. It now almost appears to be in a downtrend which indicates less desire for put options. It certainly has shown a decrease in volatility recently. Oil is an increasing concern for the bulls right now. It is making one of it's strongest legs yet. It may be due in part by the anticipation of the Fed lowering rates next week. Gold is still stabilizing around the $920 mark. The USD is losing ground again, similar to Oil I believe where the Fed rate decreasing is spurring the move.

I am still residing on the fence with a slight bullish bias. The recent couple of days is commonly expected after a breakout of a decent range. If we strongly move back into the range then I'd be switching from bullish to bearish in the short term. Oil is the one thing putting a lot of strain on the economy right now. I think the reduction of interest rates will be good for the stocks and will encourage further investment into the equities. However it's a double edged sword as it reduces the USD value which in turn has OPEC wanting to keep their hands in the cookie jar and refuse to increase supply.

My Focus

The focus is beginning to sound repetitive but I guess that is what is needed to develop consistency. Once I have some good consistency I will be able to adjust a few things to produce better results. I am happy with my progress thus far and feel I am trading fairly consistently. With some more time and stats under my belt I can start improving things in regards to risk and lot numbers.

Focus on the 5 minute chart and switching to the 2 minute chart is top priority. So is the Tick chart. Risk and money management are working well and so is my trade management. I'm continuing to enter into my journal when I pull orders that I place so I can see if there are any patterns forming.

 

[jasont]

Trading For 23rd April

Here is my journal for the 23rd April:

There are no major market reports out for today so the market will be left to trade. The open looks like it will be pretty flat, the pre market has been on a steady decline since about 7.20am. Will be interesting to see if it carries over into the market hours.

9:35 We opened a touch higher and rose to the 1383.25 resistance area. At that point we turned down and broke the SMA on the 2 minute chart. Tick is mixed at the open showing no clear direction from the stocks. Looks like it may be a good old fashioned battle.

9:46 The ES, YM and NQ have all declined pretty strongly so far but the Tick hasn't shown equal movement from the stocks at the open. Maybe it's because they aren't in full flight of their trading just yet. ES definitely looks like it's on a mission to move lower.

9:57 The Tick is still flat lining across the zero line. It went below for a short period and then bounced straight away. The market has found support just below the EMA but right now it still seems to be anyones game. The NQ looks as though it's leading the ES and YM right now. Damn, just as I was typing I missed a move off the SMA on the 2 minute chart.

10:12 I took a quick short trade off the SMA rejection on the 2 minute chart. I made it quick because the double bottom looks like it is causing a bit of trouble for the sellers and the Tick looked to be gaining a bit of strength. I got in at 1376.75 and had my profit target initially at 1376 but big orders were stacked in the bid column at my target and very few were stacked for the ask side of things. I moved my profit target up to 1376.25 instead and it was taken shortly after. The market has now moved higher which means I made a good decision to get in and out quickly. Right now the Tick has been testing the positive side of things a bit and has finally garnered some momentum. Not sure if it will be a decent buy up or just a small move to entice more sellers. Will see what happens.

10:25 The Tick is hovering above the zero line right now and the market is moving quite steadily higher. If we break 1383.50 we could see a nice upward move but right now it's an even game but with momentum on the side of the bulls.

10:36 We have made a new high for the day and just broken through the resistance. This has been a pretty strong move we have seen so it could be best sticking on the side of buying. The Tick is showing the stocks are hitting buy orders. Right now I just need some kind of pull back for an opportunity to get in.

10:47 Awesome I love when the market only moves one way for an extended period of time without any pullbacks hehe. Patience is definitely needed for me in times like these. After such a strong pullbacks are harder to judge because they can either be quite large or minute. The Tick is still looking pretty strong and we have slowed down neat the 1387 resistance.

11:05 I'm remaining cautious about being too quick to get on a long trade right now. We might be bouncing off the SMA on the 2 minute chart but I would rather see a bigger pullback before getting on board. The Tick has moved below the zero line and after a big move like we have seen, it's easy to get caught up in the buying euphoria.

11:19 I jumped on a long trade at 1385 for the upward stair step pattern. I had my stop at 1383 and my profit target originally at 1386. The Tick was starting to gain strength and it looked like a good trade. For some reason I lost my nerve though and got out for a 1 tick gain. I have no idea why I chose to get out. The trade was solid and things were going well. Pretty disappointed on that trade especially as it has now reached my profit target I originally had.

11:34 Maybe my head knew something I didn't on that trade because the market has since traveled sideways and is currently trying to push lower. The Tick is hitting resistance every time it tries to move into positive ground but I suspect it's only a matter of time before it can stick. I'm a bit jittery on my assessments where we are. There seems to be conflicting signals I am getting and the market is moving rather slow. It's best if I stick to the sidelines right now.

11:48 I'm going to call it a night. It was an average day of trading, the first trade was good but I would have been better looking for the possible double bottom trade. The second trade was a good entry and my original profit target was spot on but for some reason I pulled the trade. I think I may have panicked unnecessarily. Was limited opportunities for me in the market today with most of it taken up by the big push higher. Apart from the panicked exit the day was ok. Not my best but it's a positive result.

Daily Wrap Up

What an odd night I had. I was having trouble finding good opportunities. It appears as though I have a problem with bringing my profit targets in too early. I did it twice today and both times the market reached my profit targets. Had I left them where they originally were placed, I would have made 1.75 profit instead of 0.75 profit. It is something I will need to monitor because it is disrupting my risk/reward ratio and placing more pressure on my win/loss ratio.

There was a long period of time last night where the market was very one sided and didn't really provide obvious opportunities to me for getting in. The Tick was wavering between the positive and negative in bulk sections which usually is good for trading but I didn't manage to pick up on the finer points.

The first trade I saw reason for bringing my profit target closer, the second trade was just an impulse. The position didn't go into deficit the entire time I was in the trade, I think I just feared losing what I had already made which is a quick way to losing control of my trading. I quickly brought down my profit target and then straight after saw the market reach my original one. A bit disappointing really.

For my day's focus I give myself a 'C'. My trade management was not up to scratch and resulted in lost profits. If I get out of a trade I need to have a reason to do so. My chart focus was ok, but during the long run higher I lost a bit of interest and concentration. My risk and money management were good and my journal entries were also good.

Trade 1: 0.50 Win
Trade 2: 0.25 Win

Daily Result: 0.75 Gain