It's All About The Pips...

[pbalfe08]

Hello Dan!
I remember what you always told me when I read too much ... LOL
Somehow I know you will find those pips anyway ...
Have a great week
Nicola

Hi Nicola, :clap:

Glad to see you around, have missed you on the live sessions.

Have you defected to a more stress free wat of trading, thats what i,ve heard, keep it up and good luck on the pips

Paul

 

[danarm]

Is cooking stress free???

My leg of lamb has been cooking for 3 hours and i still have no idea what i am doing. Looks good though, with rosemary, a little cranberry juice and a few red onions. Its a new method (Jamie O) so hopefully it tastes as good as it looks and falls off the bone...

D

 

[danarm]

London Open - Monday 30th March

Good morning all



Asia had all the fun again last night and only opportunities have been with the 5min chart as markets were oversold coming into the London Open.



We are close to critical levels in CABLE, GBPJPY, EURJPY & EURUSD and with G20 and Non Farm coming up later this week we are going to be in for one big ride!!!



You are all set up with the correct levels now for the week. Play off the support and resistance and wait for the breaks. The only reason you need to drop down a time frame is if the market is overbought or oversold. Concentrate on the bigger picture as this is where you will pick up the 300 – 500 pip trades.



Have a great day.

 

[danarm]

When I skipped into the office this morning I was wondering whether wewould be higher or lower on the open as their hadn't been anysignificant news over the weekend. Well I was wrong apparently theirhad been some news, automakers in the US are struggling to stay afloatand yet another bailout plan has hit the buffers! Well blow me down witha feather, tell me something we didn't know already! I will repeat whatI have said on countless occasions, these car companies equityvaluations are zero, and their debt isn't that far behind. The problemis simple, they have huge pension and medical deficits they make cr*pcars and they cant sell the thousands that they built in the good timeslet alone the new ones they are still insistent on constructing now.Securitisation has died a death which means the financial leasing modelis also dead and therefore demand for new cars will not/never return to2002-2007 levels. I will ask you this simple question, why would anyonebuy a new car right now when you can buy a second hand one at 50% (ormore) cheaper that the showroom price. Despite government measures suchas trade yur old banger in for 2k if you buy a new car, Gordon andBarack will not be able to force any of us buy an expensive new car andfor that reason I think the car companies are well and truly stuffed,and chucking more money at them is akin to having a big dollar billbonfire.As for EM as quickly as it gapped tighter last week it has done theopposite today. I remember the old days when 5 or 10bp was a decentmove in spreads, today I didn't even blink an eyelid when I widenedspreads by 50-100bp. Funnily enough we saw sellers across the desk.Month and Quarter end tomorrow, it looks like the windows have beendressed and further tightening is unlikely. Roll on April fools, Swampyriots and NFP, what a week to choose to go away on!!

Mr P.......

 

[indiana]

When I skipped into the office this morning I was wondering whether wewould be higher or lower on the open as their hadn't been anysignificant news over the weekend. Well I was wrong apparently theirhad been some news, automakers in the US are struggling to stay afloatand yet another bailout plan has hit the buffers! Well blow me down witha feather, tell me something we didn't know already! I will repeat whatI have said on countless occasions, these car companies equityvaluations are zero, and their debt isn't that far behind. The problemis simple, they have huge pension and medical deficits they make cr*pcars and they cant sell the thousands that they built in the good timeslet alone the new ones they are still insistent on constructing now.Securitisation has died a death which means the financial leasing modelis also dead and therefore demand for new cars will not/never return to2002-2007 levels. I will ask you this simple question, why would anyonebuy a new car right now when you can buy a second hand one at 50% (ormore) cheaper that the showroom price. Despite government measures suchas trade yur old banger in for 2k if you buy a new car, Gordon andBarack will not be able to force any of us buy an expensive new car andfor that reason I think the car companies are well and truly stuffed,and chucking more money at them is akin to having a big dollar billbonfire.As for EM as quickly as it gapped tighter last week it has done theopposite today. I remember the old days when 5 or 10bp was a decentmove in spreads, today I didn't even blink an eyelid when I widenedspreads by 50-100bp. Funnily enough we saw sellers across the desk.Month and Quarter end tomorrow, it looks like the windows have beendressed and further tightening is unlikely. Roll on April fools, Swampyriots and NFP, what a week to choose to go away on!!

Mr P.......

Hi Dan,

love your day end analysis but one word i have been working out what it means is "EM".

Waht does it stand for

Paul

 

[Tenapenny]

Hi Dan,

love your day end analysis but one word i have been working out what it means is "EM".

Waht does it stand for

Paul

Try this. Effective margin (EM) - Financial Definition

 

[danarm]

London Open Notes - Monday 31st March

Good morning all

Trust you all had a good weekend.

I get the feeling that all FX traders are lost at the moment. Last week everyone was telling me EURUSD was going to 1.5000 and now the reality of EUR weakness has hit home.

Some very experienced banks and traders are changing their views by the day, so best thing for us is to keep our risk limited and play off the major support and resistance levels from the longer term charts. It’s a choppy market so we will have to have wider stops as per the video from Friday.

CABLE
• Yes the Daily Golden Cross has happened and the market will be looking for support.
• Trend support suggests around the 1.4100/50 level.
• Lets wait for a double bottom around here for a potential move higher.
• Personally I see very weak currencies all round and I don’t want to buy anything. The question is which one is the weakest.
• Look for this level to hold for support.

EURUSD
• The EUR is very confused at present and views change daily.
• Will the print money like the rest of us in GBP and USD or wont they? If they do EUR must fall dramatically.
• Major support around the 1.2950/1.3000 level.
• Looking for double bottom around this level for confirmation of support and potential retest higher.

EURGBP
• 0.9520 is still major resistance.
• Looking for EUR weakness here but I need to see if CABLE and EURUSD hold their respective support levels.

Verdict

What an Asian session…
Critical level in CABLE ahead… If it holds then I can have a view on where the rest of the currencies will move.
If you enter any trade make sure you have the 60min 20ma close to you position…

 

[danarm]

London Open - Monday 31st March

Good morning all



Well, well, well!!! We are at major support levels in CABLE.



You are all setup now for the day and your levels should be in the system with your stops behind the relevant support and resistance levels.



CABLE will be the driver here. As mentioned over the weekend I need USDJPY to hold up for any chance of GBPJPY and EURJPY to hold up. I am looking for CABLE to hold and double bottom and many of you are looking to build above the support line at 1.4100.



There were some great trades from 1.4330 in CABLE (this am) with a stop above the 50, for only a 20 pip risk. Infact as you know there are scalping opportunities every second of the day. The main thing is you don’t lose perspective of the slightly bigger picture and bigger levels. I am zoning in on the 60min charts as we are at critical levels…



Helena and a few others were short GBPJPY from resistance at 141.00 with stop above. Some excellent pips taken there!!!



So lets concentrate on these support and resistance levels and play off them. Zone in on your chosen 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6 charts and focus and nail the little trades inside the channels. Baz traded CABLE like a pro today for 80 pips with one trade. All he did was short from resistance line with 20 pip risk.



Ok so looking for GBP to hold these levels, if it doesn’t then all long bets are off in my chosen GBP currencies!!! At the moment I am looking to build and add to my long positions or until the supports are broken.



Cheers



Dan

 

[danarm]

Good evening all

Well my craziness of long GBP is paying off...USDJPY up, GBPJPY up, EURGBP down and CABLE creeping...

Remember that Golden cross we talked about this am in CABLE...Its coming

Lovely jubbly.

D

 

[danarm]

End of the quarter, end of the month ended up a bit of a non event. Thebias was to the right hand side, and there were decent bids in theRussian corp space regaining some of yesterdays losses (10-30bptighter). For once I haven't got a whole heap to say aside from theobvious, good riddance to another awful quarter. So what's in store forQ2 of 09? Well I have talked about banks Q1 numbers on numerousoccasions and I fully expect their releases to be good. Aside from theupward sloping yield curve, wide bid offers, record sovereign and hgissuance, you also have the AIG bailout that has allegedly greatlybenefitted many of their counterparties on the back of unwindingilliquid underwater derivative positions and I am sure this story wasonly the tip of the iceberg. As for the rest of the quarter, the bullswill continue to look for further evidence of green shoots and thegovernments will continue to try and print their way out of this mess.My view remains the same, this bubble took 7 years to inflate and willnot be fixed in 18 months by borrowing yet more money. Anyway roll onQ2 and lets hope I am wrong.Tomorrow for once is not about indentifying the April fools in thenational press but it will be the attack of the swampies. All sorts ofwhispers doing the rounds, all I can say is that half of the city willbe too busy listening to ridiculous rumours or looking out the windowtherefore from a trading standpoint I expect tomorrow to be a non event.

Mr P......

 

[danarm]

London Open - Wednesday 1st April

Good morning all



This week isn’t about breakouts but about the major support levels in GBP.



Yes there are a few pips to be made on each trend reversal but like I keep saying the next 24 to 48 hours is key.



The golden cross is building on the 60min chart and CABLE is getting very close to that perfect trade. Some are long already and averaged in well.



I am still long of GBPJPY and short EURGBP and waiting for my pullback in CABLE for a long trade with stop below 1.4100.



Exciting week ahead!!!



D

 

[tantra]

how far up do you see cable going, Danarm?

 

[danarm]

how far up do you see cable going, Danarm?

This will depend on USDJPY and GBPJPY...

Technicals suggest around the 1.6000 level but at the moment i am concentrating on buying off the support with stop loss below. If it is wrong then its wrong and i will go short below support!

Still long GBPJPY and short EURGBP and made good pips here. Looking for more here as GBPJPY could go to 160.00 but needs USDJPY to break major resistance at 99.70.

Cheers

D

 

[haircut]

Dan I am short Eur/GBP too, this 0.9150 area has been strong support for alot of March do you see it breaking that area this time?
Thanks
Martin H

 

[danarm]

Hi

I have entered GBPJPY (141.50) and CABLE (1.4350) again on bounce of DP this afternoon... All explained in the live room today.

My stops are below the support in GBPJPY at 140.50 and CABLE at 1.4250. GBPJPY is a re-entry after closing out my 50% at 144.50. CABLE annoyingly has the 4hr 50ma above but levels are there to be broken...

Lets see if USDJPY can hold strong and that GBP can hold this support. CABLE needs to break this WP which is immediate resistance. Hopefully i will be able to add to this tomorrow morning and also hoping i havent got in too early.

Need USDJPY to hold up and keep weak JPY across the board.

See you tomorrow morning at 6.30am.

Dan

 

[danarm]

Dan I am short Eur/GBP too, this 0.9150 area has been strong support for alot of March do you see it breaking that area this time?
Thanks
Martin H

Hi Martin

I like EURGBP lower and been shorting from 0.9450 with stop above 0.9550. Probably best to lower stop to 0.9410 now and lock in a few pips.

Yes 0.9150 is huge support but looking for this to break and target 0.9000 then 0.8000. (Now that would be nice!!!)

Remember to sell at 'sell zones'...

See ya tom.

Dan

 

[danarm]

Well no Aprils fools of note aside from Jimmy Randall's jeans! We basically sat and watched Sky News all day as the cost of this G20 protest and security operation escalates (and guess who pays for it!).The market on the most part continues to ignore what is going on outside including yet more cr*ppy data releases (ADP, Tankan and German retail sales) and Russian corporates in particular feels well anchored at current levels and has potential to tighten in further. I know relative value is a forgotten art however I would like to highlight something. If you were lucky enough to have bough the new Abu Dhabi 10 year you are only giving up 65 odd bp vs Turkey, that is a AA rated credit vs BB-! Best pals Gordon and Barack had a press conference this morning and our wonderful prime minster unwittingly highlighted how bad this recession really is. He talked about the record fiscal stimulus being implemented by most of the G20 nations. This is true, however if this record size global stimulus does not work and I except we have to give it time, what happens next? Don't bother sending me an answer on a postcard, all I will say is the civil unrest we have seen glimpses of today will be common practice and you will see me disappear down under quicker than you can say "which way to New Zealand?" Subject to me getting lynched on the way home because I am wearing a suit, I will see you all next week.

Mr P.....

 

[danarm]

Taken a little bit out (25%) of GBPJPY and CABLE and will hopefully be able to add to them again tom am, or overnight on breaks.

Lets see how Asia performs....Dont want to be too exposed as GBPUSD hasnt broken the resistance.

A break of 1.4500 and 143.00 will be key.

D

 

[haircut]

Hi Martin

I like EURGBP lower and been shorting from 0.9450 with stop above 0.9550. Probably best to lower stop to 0.9410 now and lock in a few pips.

Yes 0.9150 is huge support but looking for this to break and target 0.9000 then 0.8000. (Now that would be nice!!!)

Remember to sell at 'sell zones'...

See ya tom.

Dan

Thanks Dan!!!

 

[TWOHATS]

Hi Dan,
Well 1 day into trying the slightly longer term strategy(leaving it open all day lol) and up 160 odd pips in cable.:clap: Banked a good bit of it and now hoping for a bit of a drop overnight so i can get in again in the morning at a better price but if a couple of days a week work out like today ill be a happy chap:cheers:.
See you all in the morning.
Andy s