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danarm
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Good morning all
Well a very quiet London Open...The good news is we made between 20 and 25 pips in USDJPY.
Looking for break of majopr resistance now in USDJPY. The JPY weakness is helping EURJPY and GBPJPY but until we get the otherside of retail sales i wont be looking to trade GBP.
Cheers all
D
Most of you are building very well to our 250 pip target on the London Open
Well a very quiet London Open...The good news is we made between 20 and 25 pips in USDJPY.
Looking for break of majopr resistance now in USDJPY. The JPY weakness is helping EURJPY and GBPJPY but until we get the otherside of retail sales i wont be looking to trade GBP.
Cheers all
D
Most of you are building very well to our 250 pip target on the London Open
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danarm
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The whole currency market is lost in my opinion...
Geithner, Brown etc could be a little lost me thinks???
I feel like a lost puppy chasing my tail!!!
Yes we can pick up my 25 - 50 pips each day but trying to make sense of the market is another challenge completely...
Do any of these so called financiers have a clue? Have we learnt anything from history?
Mmmmm dont think so!!!
Geithner, Brown etc could be a little lost me thinks???
I feel like a lost puppy chasing my tail!!!
Yes we can pick up my 25 - 50 pips each day but trying to make sense of the market is another challenge completely...
Do any of these so called financiers have a clue? Have we learnt anything from history?
Mmmmm dont think so!!!
danarm
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I have seen a few rallies in my time on this desk over the past 7 yearshowever today's takes some beating. A liftathon, a grabathon a rampingsession whatever you want to call it. Short story most Russiancorporates were anything between 50 and 150bp tighter on the day, withevery man and his dog looking for bonds. Liquidity is an embarrassmentand the constant tutting from sales people is getting slightly annoying(for them and me). We have now rallied so hard that we are nowapproaching levels where new issuance is a distinct possibility.Opening the new issue floodgates will soon stop this madness and willcheer up sales people not to mention bringing EM syndicate desks backfrom their sabbaticals. For me the market can rally further but as adealer who's pretty flat crossing the Amazon like bid offer spread doesnot make much sense to me so I will attempt to sell what I have leftinto this madness and then disappear on my Easter break. If yourbelieve in the rally then you need to look at underperformers and todayTurkey (new issue perhaps?) was unchanged despite the corporate bid.The big wide world is apparently fine, Gordon and Barack are going toinflate their way out of this mess and therefore EM will benefit. Iobviously don't agree with this however clearly I am not alone. Thestreet (including myself) did not see this rally coming and there is alot of serious pain out there. I would imagine this is the same indeveloped credit markets and equity markets. My point is, that shortsare in pain and either have or will be capitulating very soon. Notonly that, but some people are getting seriously bulled up and arecalling that we have seen the worst and the lows. Once the shorts haveclosed and the longs have been sucked in, the technicals will not lookso pretty. We are not there yet, this rally can continue until afterEaster however we all know the old adage for May and I do not think thisyear will be any different.
Mr P.....
Mr P.....
danarm
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Good morning all
Well days like this i wish i had lived in Asia. The perfect setups moved at 5.30am to 6.00am GMT and by the time i came in at 6.20am they had already gone. Huff!!!!
Thats the way it goes and the important lesson is not to jump in and chase trades.
My week started off to be a cracker with Monday and Tuesday up over 100 pips in both. Then Wednesday 50 pips and Thursday only 20 pips in the london open. Today was even worse at 0 pips but happy not to have traded. Yes i could have taken CABLE for 30 to 40 pips as others did but the GOLDEN CROSS on my 4hr chart has got me thinking. Is it a fake out or is CABLE really going to find that needed support? Last one we saw was in July 2008!!!
Looking to get back into GBPJPY and add to my 50% stake as well EURGBP...(Longer Term Book)
Might have this GBP game totally wrong, especially how No 10 and the Bank of England arent exactly helping my cause. Technicals suggest a little strength against the JPY but i need USDJPY to make that challenge back up to the 99.65 level.
See you later.
Dan
Well days like this i wish i had lived in Asia. The perfect setups moved at 5.30am to 6.00am GMT and by the time i came in at 6.20am they had already gone. Huff!!!!
Thats the way it goes and the important lesson is not to jump in and chase trades.
My week started off to be a cracker with Monday and Tuesday up over 100 pips in both. Then Wednesday 50 pips and Thursday only 20 pips in the london open. Today was even worse at 0 pips but happy not to have traded. Yes i could have taken CABLE for 30 to 40 pips as others did but the GOLDEN CROSS on my 4hr chart has got me thinking. Is it a fake out or is CABLE really going to find that needed support? Last one we saw was in July 2008!!!
Looking to get back into GBPJPY and add to my 50% stake as well EURGBP...(Longer Term Book)
Might have this GBP game totally wrong, especially how No 10 and the Bank of England arent exactly helping my cause. Technicals suggest a little strength against the JPY but i need USDJPY to make that challenge back up to the 99.65 level.
See you later.
Dan
danarm
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London Open Notes - Friday 26th March
Good morning all
Interesting week… The London Open was great on Monday and Tuesday with around 200 to 250 pips in the bank. Since then I have hardly traded… We took 45 on the EURUSD on Wednesday and USDJPY yesterday for 20. That’s been it for me unfortunately. The main thing is we have hit target this week.
CABLE
EURGBP is grinding higher again so EURUSD could be a better play.
No long plays until we break and find support off the 4hr and 60min 20ma.
Boxed between the 4hr 50ma and 4hr 20ma so best to wait for break and clearer direction.
Use the 60min 20ma as support or resistance.
EURUSD
As mentioned from last week the market is keen to push EUR higher to the mid 1.4000s and many strike prices are up there…
Would like a small retracement onto the 60min 20ma and use the 60min trigger as the next major momentum.
EURGBP
Broken its 1st major resistance level on 60min chart and the EUR is looking strong again.
Wait for next pullback and use the 60min trigger.
The JPYs
USDJPY
Broke the major resistance yesterday on the 4hr chart but has lacked the momentum.
Boxed between the 60min MAs and we need to wait for a break.
If this breaks up above the 98.55 level then we should look for JPY weakness all round
GBPJPY
Looks weak at the moment with a lower high on the 4hr chart.
GBPCHF is weak as well so there is GBP weakness across the board
Look for gap back down to the 4hr 50ma.
Good morning all
Interesting week… The London Open was great on Monday and Tuesday with around 200 to 250 pips in the bank. Since then I have hardly traded… We took 45 on the EURUSD on Wednesday and USDJPY yesterday for 20. That’s been it for me unfortunately. The main thing is we have hit target this week.
CABLE
EURGBP is grinding higher again so EURUSD could be a better play.
No long plays until we break and find support off the 4hr and 60min 20ma.
Boxed between the 4hr 50ma and 4hr 20ma so best to wait for break and clearer direction.
Use the 60min 20ma as support or resistance.
EURUSD
As mentioned from last week the market is keen to push EUR higher to the mid 1.4000s and many strike prices are up there…
Would like a small retracement onto the 60min 20ma and use the 60min trigger as the next major momentum.
EURGBP
Broken its 1st major resistance level on 60min chart and the EUR is looking strong again.
Wait for next pullback and use the 60min trigger.
The JPYs
USDJPY
Broke the major resistance yesterday on the 4hr chart but has lacked the momentum.
Boxed between the 60min MAs and we need to wait for a break.
If this breaks up above the 98.55 level then we should look for JPY weakness all round
GBPJPY
Looks weak at the moment with a lower high on the 4hr chart.
GBPCHF is weak as well so there is GBP weakness across the board
Look for gap back down to the 4hr 50ma.
danarm
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Have a good weekend all...
Made targets this week but could have been so much more.
Going to be a very interesting next week. Know a few who have built longer term EUR and GBP positions. Is it too early, lets see!!! Bring on next week and will discuss on monday.
D
Made targets this week but could have been so much more.
Going to be a very interesting next week. Know a few who have built longer term EUR and GBP positions. Is it too early, lets see!!! Bring on next week and will discuss on monday.
D
Hi Dan
Thanks for the video link you sent to us all. I've just watched it and it really struck a cord.
I've mostly traded like a pillock this week!
Some really controlled, safe trades but far too many bad ones.
It seems to me that if I get a couple of losing trades, my reaction to my knocked confidence is to take profit early and to tighten my stops for each subsequent trade. I then find myself looking at shorter and shorter TFs.
The points you made in you video i.e. sticking with the 1hr chart mostly and using sensible stops, is going to be written in big letters above my monitor next week. I'm going to repeat it to myself 100 times every morning before switching the computer on.
This morning's CABLE is a classic example of getting stopped out on the 5' and 15' charts, but being a beautiful relaxed trade on the 1hr.
I must be the class thicky this week but don't give up on me, I'm sooo determined to become a great trader!
This psychology malarky is a whopper of a hurdle, isn't it?
Cheers Dan, have a great weekend (I'm going to fit in some intensive revision...) and see you Monday morning.
Julie
Thanks for the video link you sent to us all. I've just watched it and it really struck a cord.
I've mostly traded like a pillock this week!
Some really controlled, safe trades but far too many bad ones.It seems to me that if I get a couple of losing trades, my reaction to my knocked confidence is to take profit early and to tighten my stops for each subsequent trade. I then find myself looking at shorter and shorter TFs.
The points you made in you video i.e. sticking with the 1hr chart mostly and using sensible stops, is going to be written in big letters above my monitor next week. I'm going to repeat it to myself 100 times every morning before switching the computer on.
This morning's CABLE is a classic example of getting stopped out on the 5' and 15' charts, but being a beautiful relaxed trade on the 1hr.
I must be the class thicky this week but don't give up on me, I'm sooo determined to become a great trader!
This psychology malarky is a whopper of a hurdle, isn't it?
Cheers Dan, have a great weekend (I'm going to fit in some intensive revision...) and see you Monday morning.
Julie
danarm
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Hi Dan
Thanks for the video link you sent to us all. I've just watched it and it really struck a cord.
I've mostly traded like a pillock this week!
It seems to me that if I get a couple of losing trades, my reaction to my knocked confidence is to take profit early and to tighten my stops for each subsequent trade. I then find myself looking at shorter and shorter TFs.
The points you made in you video i.e. sticking with the 1hr chart mostly and using sensible stops, is going to be written in big letters above my monitor next week. I'm going to repeat it to myself 100 times every morning before switching the computer on.
This morning's CABLE is a classic example of getting stopped out on the 5' and 15' charts, but being a beautiful relaxed trade on the 1hr.
I must be the class thicky this week but don't give up on me, I'm sooo determined to become a great trader!
This psychology malarky is a whopper of a hurdle, isn't it?
Cheers Dan, have a great weekend (I'm going to fit in some intensive revision...) and see you Monday morning.
Julie
Hi Julie
Glad the video helped a little..
Don't worry we have all dropped down a time frame when we are have lost on a trade and feel under pressure... I guess its like taking a penalty...So easy in practice but during a world cup why does it seem so difficult.
I know the 5min charts seem attractive and believe me the 1minute can look attractive but its not the way forward long term!!! Trust me!!.
Use that 60min chart to your best ability and use the trigger and use a slightly wider stop.
I will show you these trades but they will have wider stops...
Good plan Julie and looking forward to Monday already.
D
PS Am i off the rocks with liking EUR and GBP higher? Surely there is someone else out there and can see through all this negativity??? Maybe i have gone crazy!!!
Last edited:
Pschycology & Stop losses
Hi Dan & all,
Well pretty good week for me, i doulbled my pip count from last week but have a long way to go still.
Pleased that i took 2 trades out of the live sessions and pretty pleased with that, showing i can read the charts after all.
just watched your video Dan and really enjoyed it, again full of the right information for us inexperienced traders.
I have now done a plan based on a 2% & a 3% risk and fully agree taht we need to look at bigger stops, the biggest thing about this trading game is that you can have all the money in the world but if you have not got the B***ls to hit that trigger then you will not go forward.
My plan going forward is to:-
1. work to a maximum 3% of my account if i need bigger stop losses and a minimum of 2% if my money management falls within that criteria
2. Look at charts, 15 min first, and if a trade looks good, i am going to take that trade as long as its within my management rules
3. No more emotions, i am going to hit the trigger knowing what my risk is and be prepared to lose that amount knowing that the chart set up is correct
4. I will then move my chart to a 1 hour and relax into that trade, if still in profit i will bank at a good level and then move my chart to a 4 hour
5. I am going to go into every trade with a positiuve attitude
The money i have in my account is there to be invested and i have to understand that for every risk there is a reward and that if i ahve a positive attitude and my personal strategy is 100% correct then i cannot balme myself and i won't.
We all ahve to learn and i think most of us are now at apoint where we understand the charts, look at other time frames to confirm, understand correlation etc etc, so nothing should stop us from making these decisions, the fear of losing is no more, only the joys of winning and i will report back here next week, same time, same place and i will have doubled my account at the very least.
We have to increase our chances of winiing and we can only do that by allowing the markets to throw curve balls at us and come out smiling.
Good luck everyone for next week and happy pipping and keep it smart
Paul :cheesy:
Hi Dan & all,
Well pretty good week for me, i doulbled my pip count from last week but have a long way to go still.
Pleased that i took 2 trades out of the live sessions and pretty pleased with that, showing i can read the charts after all.
just watched your video Dan and really enjoyed it, again full of the right information for us inexperienced traders.
I have now done a plan based on a 2% & a 3% risk and fully agree taht we need to look at bigger stops, the biggest thing about this trading game is that you can have all the money in the world but if you have not got the B***ls to hit that trigger then you will not go forward.
My plan going forward is to:-
1. work to a maximum 3% of my account if i need bigger stop losses and a minimum of 2% if my money management falls within that criteria
2. Look at charts, 15 min first, and if a trade looks good, i am going to take that trade as long as its within my management rules
3. No more emotions, i am going to hit the trigger knowing what my risk is and be prepared to lose that amount knowing that the chart set up is correct
4. I will then move my chart to a 1 hour and relax into that trade, if still in profit i will bank at a good level and then move my chart to a 4 hour
5. I am going to go into every trade with a positiuve attitude
The money i have in my account is there to be invested and i have to understand that for every risk there is a reward and that if i ahve a positive attitude and my personal strategy is 100% correct then i cannot balme myself and i won't.
We all ahve to learn and i think most of us are now at apoint where we understand the charts, look at other time frames to confirm, understand correlation etc etc, so nothing should stop us from making these decisions, the fear of losing is no more, only the joys of winning and i will report back here next week, same time, same place and i will have doubled my account at the very least.
We have to increase our chances of winiing and we can only do that by allowing the markets to throw curve balls at us and come out smiling.
Good luck everyone for next week and happy pipping and keep it smart
Paul :cheesy:
sorry guys,
just one more thing, i was thinking today that this must be the first time in my life that i look forward to Mondays and waking up every morning at 5-30am
Dan what have you done to me !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
:clap:
Paul
Ha ha Paul, that's so true!
danarm
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Good morning...
Button 1st and Lewis 3rd!!! Not a bad weekend for British drivers.
The more i read the more i worry for Europe. Yes the USD will weaken but buying GBP and EUR against the USD is very difficult at the moment, however tempting.
Looking for USDJPY to remain bid which could hold GBPJPY and EURJPY up but we need to see more evidence of this next week and for USDJPY to retest previous high.
Overall its very hard to predict where the strength is coming from in any market. We'll have to take it day by day and hopefully start seeing some improved figures from the UK.
Hope you are all having a good weekend!!
Read a lot this morning and now i'm more confused. Who do we believe???
See ya tom.
D
Button 1st and Lewis 3rd!!! Not a bad weekend for British drivers.
The more i read the more i worry for Europe. Yes the USD will weaken but buying GBP and EUR against the USD is very difficult at the moment, however tempting.
Looking for USDJPY to remain bid which could hold GBPJPY and EURJPY up but we need to see more evidence of this next week and for USDJPY to retest previous high.
Overall its very hard to predict where the strength is coming from in any market. We'll have to take it day by day and hopefully start seeing some improved figures from the UK.
Hope you are all having a good weekend!!
Read a lot this morning and now i'm more confused. Who do we believe???
See ya tom.
D
elitejets
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Hello Dan!
I remember what you always told me when I read too much ... LOL
Somehow I know you will find those pips anyway ...
Have a great week
Nicola
I remember what you always told me when I read too much ... LOL
Somehow I know you will find those pips anyway ...
Have a great week
Nicola
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