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danarm
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London Open Notes - Tuesday 17th March
Good morning London
I trust you are all well…Early notes as couldn’t sleep last night.
Well traded yesterday and a very controlled afternoon session, with many of you trading CABLE and GBPJPY on the pullback to the 60min 20ma. Let’s look to build from that session and make a few pips this morning.
Interesting how USDJPY has flat lined since yesterday. The 4hr 20ma is trying to hold as support but we really need that Golden Cross for some strength back into the market and a break back above the 65 level. It is very minimal risk for a long play with a tight stop below 98.10.
CABLE
• Sitting on the Daily 20ma with the 4hr 20ma as true support on the 60min chart.
• The Golden Cross happened overnight on the 60min chart so lets look for support off this cross if it can hold.
• Look for the DP at 1.4075 to hold as immediate support.
• 1st resistance is 1.4135 and then 1.4240.
• Will be looking for buying opportunities above the DP to the resistance levels with stops below the DP.
EURUSD
• The trend is moving up and we should be looking for buying opportunities above the DP.
• Do remember how far the EUR has come from the 1.2450 low, so be aware of any pullbacks. As long as we stay above the DP then remain looking for long plays.
• Any stop needs to be behind the DP at 1.2970 level.
EURGBP
• Support on the DP at 0.9200.
• Any break below here would see a move to the WP at 0.9164.
• Resistance on the 60min 50ma so any break back above 0.9225/30 would see strength back in the EUR.
• Wait for break of DP or 0.9225
Good morning London
I trust you are all well…Early notes as couldn’t sleep last night.
Well traded yesterday and a very controlled afternoon session, with many of you trading CABLE and GBPJPY on the pullback to the 60min 20ma. Let’s look to build from that session and make a few pips this morning.
Interesting how USDJPY has flat lined since yesterday. The 4hr 20ma is trying to hold as support but we really need that Golden Cross for some strength back into the market and a break back above the 65 level. It is very minimal risk for a long play with a tight stop below 98.10.
CABLE
• Sitting on the Daily 20ma with the 4hr 20ma as true support on the 60min chart.
• The Golden Cross happened overnight on the 60min chart so lets look for support off this cross if it can hold.
• Look for the DP at 1.4075 to hold as immediate support.
• 1st resistance is 1.4135 and then 1.4240.
• Will be looking for buying opportunities above the DP to the resistance levels with stops below the DP.
EURUSD
• The trend is moving up and we should be looking for buying opportunities above the DP.
• Do remember how far the EUR has come from the 1.2450 low, so be aware of any pullbacks. As long as we stay above the DP then remain looking for long plays.
• Any stop needs to be behind the DP at 1.2970 level.
EURGBP
• Support on the DP at 0.9200.
• Any break below here would see a move to the WP at 0.9164.
• Resistance on the 60min 50ma so any break back above 0.9225/30 would see strength back in the EUR.
• Wait for break of DP or 0.9225
danarm
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New York Open Notes - Tuesday 17th March
Good afternoon all….
Building Permits and PPI out shortly so best to close trades prior to that.
USDJPY-
•I am a little undecided about this pair at the minute and although it looks quite good to move up again it’s a matter of timing
•Possible double top on 15m so not looking for position here just yet
GBPJPY-
•Looks weak again so slightly confused with USDJPY holding up
•A break below 137.80 should see this lower IF USDJPY fails to hold along with CableEURJPY
•Also looking weak below 127.80
•Watch for EURUSD to fall as well
Verdict….
EURCHF looks like it’s finally going to fall down a bit having had a big run which has slowed waiting for 123 on 15m chart.Yens are confusing at the moment so leaving them alone
Good afternoon all….
Building Permits and PPI out shortly so best to close trades prior to that.
USDJPY-
•I am a little undecided about this pair at the minute and although it looks quite good to move up again it’s a matter of timing
•Possible double top on 15m so not looking for position here just yet
GBPJPY-
•Looks weak again so slightly confused with USDJPY holding up
•A break below 137.80 should see this lower IF USDJPY fails to hold along with CableEURJPY
•Also looking weak below 127.80
•Watch for EURUSD to fall as well
Verdict….
EURCHF looks like it’s finally going to fall down a bit having had a big run which has slowed waiting for 123 on 15m chart.Yens are confusing at the moment so leaving them alone
danarm
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Afternoon all
Not a bad day here and been long of USDJPY and EURGBP.
Nothing flash but 2 nice breakouts.
Some good pips today by you all so well done.
See u tom am. Remember i will be in by 6.30am GMT each morning and will do the live analysis for you all then.
Cheers
Dan
Not a bad day here and been long of USDJPY and EURGBP.
Nothing flash but 2 nice breakouts.
Some good pips today by you all so well done.
See u tom am. Remember i will be in by 6.30am GMT each morning and will do the live analysis for you all then.
Cheers
Dan
danarm
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Well the good news is that the buyers have returned and dipped theirtoes in a few Russian corporates today pushing spreads a tad tighter vsthe sovereign. One thing that is evident over the past 10 days priceaction is that CDS was mispriced and not the cash as the bid in CDS(particularly in the front end) is disappearing pretty quickly. Jump todefault guys have bought what they needed, loan guys have hedged,correlation desks the same and prop desks (the ones still alive) arelong already. The obvious question is, who is going to buy it to pu**** wider from current levels?The general market still feels ok and everyone is calling the end of thecrisis, the return of inflation etc. Well all I can say is I hope theyare right and I am wrong. Lots of rhetoric on credit card companiesthese past 24 hours. In my view these guys have been nearly asirresponsible as the banks. Literally throwing money at the guys on lowincomes to fund their Hello magazine lifestyles. Well how else didpeople afford to drive a nice car, buy a Gucci handbag for their missus,have a holiday in Dubai and go out to eat 3 times a week at Nobu.Unfortunately the party has stopped Paris Hilton's mates have lost theirjobs and obviously with no savings, car loans, credit cards and themortgage are now prime for a default. This phenomenon is not going togo away anytime soon and with that backdrop I can't join the greenshoots club just yet. This time last year Bear Stearns had blown up and we all thought it wasthe end of the world. We then had a pretty impressive 6 week head fakerally. I really hope lightning strikes twice and we can enjoy a Springrally, sell when you can not when you have to!
Mr P.....
Mr P.....
danarm
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London Open Notes - Wednesday 18th March
USDJPY – Bought off support with many taking 50% out at top of triangle. Waiting for break of 70 level.
EURUSD – Many were short from 1.3060 level early this morning with stop at 75. A solid way to start the day with 40 pips plus.
GBPJPY – Descending triangle with support at 137.85. Had to wait for break at 85 before shorting. Many banking 50% after 40 pips profit and holding balance.
CABLE – Resistance at 1.4075 and support at 1.4025. Remember the 4hr 20ma was at 1.4019. Many went short at 18 or around there for a great 50 pip trade.
Overall a fantastic morning and I am very impressed with you all.
See you tomorrow for Thursdays London Open.
Dan
USDJPY – Bought off support with many taking 50% out at top of triangle. Waiting for break of 70 level.
EURUSD – Many were short from 1.3060 level early this morning with stop at 75. A solid way to start the day with 40 pips plus.
GBPJPY – Descending triangle with support at 137.85. Had to wait for break at 85 before shorting. Many banking 50% after 40 pips profit and holding balance.
CABLE – Resistance at 1.4075 and support at 1.4025. Remember the 4hr 20ma was at 1.4019. Many went short at 18 or around there for a great 50 pip trade.
Overall a fantastic morning and I am very impressed with you all.
See you tomorrow for Thursdays London Open.
Dan
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danarm
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The New York Open Notes - Wednesday 18th March
Good afternoon all
It’s been a great day so far with GBP falling through key support levels.
CABLE
• GBP is very weak today after weak figures this am.
• I won’t be standing in its way and will probably have to sit out of CABLE this afternoon.
• The only way you to trade GBP would be with the short term charts with very tight stops.
• Hard to sell after falling 300 pips, hard to buy with such a weak GBP.
• Verdict be very careful and stay out unless an obvious trade appears.
EURUSD
• 1.3070 is still major resistance and has been tested twice today.
• The EUR is remaining strong with EURJPY holding firm above the DP.
• Difficult one to call with heavy resistance above. Be patient and wait for break or keep selling with tight stop above the 75 level.
EURGBP
• Broken resistance from this morning and is now overbought on the 60min chart.
• Yes could look for a pullback here with stop above the figure.
• It’s a tight play targeting the 60 level.
• Remember its against the trend so keep the stop rolling.
Verdict
EUR remains strong and play off the 1.3070 level.
CABLE remains weak but only option is a pullback so high risk
EURGBP remains strong but only option is a pullback so high risk
Charts not setup well for safe trades
Good afternoon all
It’s been a great day so far with GBP falling through key support levels.
CABLE
• GBP is very weak today after weak figures this am.
• I won’t be standing in its way and will probably have to sit out of CABLE this afternoon.
• The only way you to trade GBP would be with the short term charts with very tight stops.
• Hard to sell after falling 300 pips, hard to buy with such a weak GBP.
• Verdict be very careful and stay out unless an obvious trade appears.
EURUSD
• 1.3070 is still major resistance and has been tested twice today.
• The EUR is remaining strong with EURJPY holding firm above the DP.
• Difficult one to call with heavy resistance above. Be patient and wait for break or keep selling with tight stop above the 75 level.
EURGBP
• Broken resistance from this morning and is now overbought on the 60min chart.
• Yes could look for a pullback here with stop above the figure.
• It’s a tight play targeting the 60 level.
• Remember its against the trend so keep the stop rolling.
Verdict
EUR remains strong and play off the 1.3070 level.
CABLE remains weak but only option is a pullback so high risk
EURGBP remains strong but only option is a pullback so high risk
Charts not setup well for safe trades
danarm
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Another pretty active session in my lovely world with locals continuingto have almost insatiable appetite for Russian Corporates. On the onehand I am asking myself when is this demand going to disappear, when dothey run out of ammo? On the other hand it kind of makes sense. TheKremlin has effectively said it will bail out all its quasis and all thematerially important private companies in Russia. Well while theRussians still have a decent amount of firepower (in terms of dollarreserves) we are effectively looking at one giant convergence trade tothe sovereign which will be the case until Russia run out of money andstop supporting their companies.I still haven't got a clue about the short term direction of marketshowever indicators like local currency weakness, govy bid and commodityand stock weakness is pointing towards a little wobble for generalmarkets. Whether this is just some profit taking or something moresinister is anyone's guess. More of the same tomorrow.
Mr P......
Mr P......
Rollingstone
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Holey Moley!
Hey Dan the Man, hi mega pipsters
I'm still here! Eating coco pops for breakfast as recommended by the Master Pip Guru - coco pips I think you call them.
HOLEY MOLEY look at those $$$$$$$$$$s go - yee haaaaa. US rates and those magic words that accompany them.
Puppy love n kisses
RS
Hey Dan the Man, hi mega pipsters
I'm still here! Eating coco pops for breakfast as recommended by the Master Pip Guru - coco pips I think you call them.
HOLEY MOLEY look at those $$$$$$$$$$s go - yee haaaaa. US rates and those magic words that accompany them.
Puppy love n kisses
RS
Rollingstone
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Dowlicious Dan
Oy Dan
Thanks for all your fab posts by the way - a girl couldn't get a word in edgeways!
Euro up to 1.5000 hey, hmmm, and who was it who said the Dow could drop mega pips a while ago? And what is it on now? (What IS it on now? Don't trade indices personally ha ha ha, but I know it's something crazy). Twas Meester Dan me remembers.
You're quite good at this FX charty trading stuff.
Gonna stick wit' u, (Pussycat Dolls)
RS
PS See, now I'm back you can't get rid of me
22:30 Ok, just looked up the Dow, it was over 10,000 when you said it was looking like it should fall big time, now it's around 7,500 - mmmm mmm, that's a lot of shoes.
Oy Dan
Thanks for all your fab posts by the way - a girl couldn't get a word in edgeways!
Euro up to 1.5000 hey, hmmm, and who was it who said the Dow could drop mega pips a while ago? And what is it on now? (What IS it on now? Don't trade indices personally ha ha ha, but I know it's something crazy). Twas Meester Dan me remembers.
You're quite good at this FX charty trading stuff.
Gonna stick wit' u, (Pussycat Dolls)
RS
PS See, now I'm back you can't get rid of me
22:30 Ok, just looked up the Dow, it was over 10,000 when you said it was looking like it should fall big time, now it's around 7,500 - mmmm mmm, that's a lot of shoes.
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Rollingstone
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Joey25
Hi Joey25
Sorry, meant to say thank you for your thank you!
RS
OK, I'm going now... tee ra a bit, as they say round here.
Hi Joey25
Sorry, meant to say thank you for your thank you!
RS
OK, I'm going now... tee ra a bit, as they say round here.
Rollingstone
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Extreme Charting
Yeuuuccchhhh
I hate these extreme moves, mess up the charts, mess up the indicators, you don't know where you are. Wandering around in limbo.
Moves like this remind me of Dan's favourite hobby - extreme ironing. He likes to take his socks to some far off white water rapid and iron them smooth on his portable ironing board. You must have seen him on the telly? :cheesy:
Anyway, I'm sitting on my hands just like he suggested.
Be safe!
RS
Yeuuuccchhhh
I hate these extreme moves, mess up the charts, mess up the indicators, you don't know where you are. Wandering around in limbo.
Moves like this remind me of Dan's favourite hobby - extreme ironing. He likes to take his socks to some far off white water rapid and iron them smooth on his portable ironing board. You must have seen him on the telly? :cheesy:
Anyway, I'm sitting on my hands just like he suggested.
Be safe!
RS
danarm
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Morning all
We made a decision as a group today not to trade after last nights aggressive moves.
The only potential setup we liked was CABLE (some took it) but many didn’t.
I am happy with my decision to have stayed out of the market this am and will be looking for better setups this afternoon.
As you all know its about discipline and once you make a decision be happy with it.
See you later.
We made a decision as a group today not to trade after last nights aggressive moves.
The only potential setup we liked was CABLE (some took it) but many didn’t.
I am happy with my decision to have stayed out of the market this am and will be looking for better setups this afternoon.
As you all know its about discipline and once you make a decision be happy with it.
See you later.
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