darkness123
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i'm thinking of shorting it today, what goes up most times must come down.
way too far from 60min20 and practically no pullback,right?
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i'm thinking of shorting it today, what goes up most times must come down.
way too far from 60min20 and practically no pullback,right?
c_c405
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Longs against CHF- downside limited - upside 2000 pips
I'm long against the CHF simply because there is very little downside left with the exception of USD/CHF which may fall a bit more (closer to 1.10 and I'll be long for a 200 pip test)
The frank is strong at the moment since much money is getting pulled form the market to the security of the frank when risk appetite resumes we are likely to see the CHF tumble a bit
Nice spik up today on the longs GBP/CHF & EUR/CHF
CAD/CHF is a good long but not an optimized entry at this time so one would be better off to wait for a better entry price
Price action will reveal an entry to you
Cheers
Here a look at today's balance and trades that I have not yet closed
GBP/USD is a no trade at the moment considering it's mid level price action
Happy pip hunting folks!
I'm long against the CHF simply because there is very little downside left with the exception of USD/CHF which may fall a bit more (closer to 1.10 and I'll be long for a 200 pip test)
The frank is strong at the moment since much money is getting pulled form the market to the security of the frank when risk appetite resumes we are likely to see the CHF tumble a bit
Nice spik up today on the longs GBP/CHF & EUR/CHF
CAD/CHF is a good long but not an optimized entry at this time so one would be better off to wait for a better entry price
Price action will reveal an entry to you
Cheers
Here a look at today's balance and trades that I have not yet closed
GBP/USD is a no trade at the moment considering it's mid level price action
Happy pip hunting folks!
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danarm
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Good morning all
I am back after losing my touch on Tue, Wed and Thurs...
It has been a great day today and lots of pips on offer.
We zoned in on USDJPY, GBPJPY & GBPUSD today. Many making well over 100 pips today which is great to see.
My confidence is coming back after a hard week and we are def going to zone in on just 2 to 3 trades per session.
Boy i am happy...Bring on the weekend.
D
I am back after losing my touch on Tue, Wed and Thurs...
It has been a great day today and lots of pips on offer.
We zoned in on USDJPY, GBPJPY & GBPUSD today. Many making well over 100 pips today which is great to see.
My confidence is coming back after a hard week and we are def going to zone in on just 2 to 3 trades per session.
Boy i am happy...Bring on the weekend.
D
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danarm
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The London Open Notes - Friday 13th March
Good morning all
I personally feel it’s been a tough week and again it reminds me not to trade when I don’t feel comfortable in the setup. Some have higher risk profiles than others, so do not feel obliged to trade if the risks are too high on a trade.
Zak and I are going to bring our best 1, 2 or 3 setups each am and concentrate on those rather than look for endless possibilities on the various currencies. I feel this will be the best way forward for everyone.
It’s Friday and I am hungry for pips… Make sure you remind yourself not need to trade if the setups aren’t there.
CABLE
• Signs of support in GBPUSD this am with price above the 60min 20ma.
• 4hr 20ma has been broken on upside
• Boxed between the 4hr 20ma (1.3865) and 4hr 50ma (1.3980)
• Look for support off the 60min 20ma and DP for the moment.
• Remember to look at GBPJPY for assistance with GBPUSD.
• Watch double top anywhere near the resistance at 1.3865 and if GBPJPY breaks the 60min 20ma on the downside, CABLE will likely follow.
EURUSD
• EUR has had a great run and is now testing the Daily 50ma at 1.2950 level.
• The 60min chart suggests no trade as risk of pullback is too high ahead of 1.3000.
• 15min chart shows resistance at 1.2935 but you would be buying on break into a Daily 50ma and psychological 1.3000 level? Difficult.
EURGBP
• 60min chart suggests the EUR is getting a little tired but I am personally tired of saying this as its not pulling back as yet.
• Hard to go long and tired of looking for its pullback so I will stay out until GBPUSD can look to break the 4hr 50ma and we have some life in GBP.
• The high is 0.9315 so it’s not exactly a huge risk but lets see how GBP performs this am.
• Watch any break below the DP and 60min 50ma.
Verdict
CABLE & GBPJPY boxed. Play box off support and resistance or simply wait for break.
Good morning all
I personally feel it’s been a tough week and again it reminds me not to trade when I don’t feel comfortable in the setup. Some have higher risk profiles than others, so do not feel obliged to trade if the risks are too high on a trade.
Zak and I are going to bring our best 1, 2 or 3 setups each am and concentrate on those rather than look for endless possibilities on the various currencies. I feel this will be the best way forward for everyone.
It’s Friday and I am hungry for pips… Make sure you remind yourself not need to trade if the setups aren’t there.
CABLE
• Signs of support in GBPUSD this am with price above the 60min 20ma.
• 4hr 20ma has been broken on upside
• Boxed between the 4hr 20ma (1.3865) and 4hr 50ma (1.3980)
• Look for support off the 60min 20ma and DP for the moment.
• Remember to look at GBPJPY for assistance with GBPUSD.
• Watch double top anywhere near the resistance at 1.3865 and if GBPJPY breaks the 60min 20ma on the downside, CABLE will likely follow.
EURUSD
• EUR has had a great run and is now testing the Daily 50ma at 1.2950 level.
• The 60min chart suggests no trade as risk of pullback is too high ahead of 1.3000.
• 15min chart shows resistance at 1.2935 but you would be buying on break into a Daily 50ma and psychological 1.3000 level? Difficult.
EURGBP
• 60min chart suggests the EUR is getting a little tired but I am personally tired of saying this as its not pulling back as yet.
• Hard to go long and tired of looking for its pullback so I will stay out until GBPUSD can look to break the 4hr 50ma and we have some life in GBP.
• The high is 0.9315 so it’s not exactly a huge risk but lets see how GBP performs this am.
• Watch any break below the DP and 60min 50ma.
Verdict
CABLE & GBPJPY boxed. Play box off support and resistance or simply wait for break.
danarm
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JPY Notes - Friday 13th March
Good morning all.
USDJPY-
• Good strong run yesterday during NYC and bounced almost perfectly off the resistance line at 98.65
• Needs to break that area again to see another push higher although a break of WP at 98.00 might be a small play north to that area.
• Would need to break down through 60m 50sma for a drop to daily pivot at 97.15 and maybe beyond
EURJPY-
• Another big run with EU finding support but now very tough to go long at these levels
• Can not go short into the averages
• Might be worth a punt IF EU pops up and EURJPY bangs above 126.50
GBPJPY-
• A nice recovery yesterday sees this having had a nice little breather and possibly ready to advance
• Needs Cable and USDJPY to advance north
• Best of the 3 and waiting for break of 136.50
Verdict……….
Looking for a long position on GBPJPY should cable and UJ remain supported above the averages.
Targeting 4hr 50sma at 137.30 then WP at 138.50
Alternatively a small position on USDJPY if it breaks up through WP
Have a good morning.
Good morning all.
USDJPY-
• Good strong run yesterday during NYC and bounced almost perfectly off the resistance line at 98.65
• Needs to break that area again to see another push higher although a break of WP at 98.00 might be a small play north to that area.
• Would need to break down through 60m 50sma for a drop to daily pivot at 97.15 and maybe beyond
EURJPY-
• Another big run with EU finding support but now very tough to go long at these levels
• Can not go short into the averages
• Might be worth a punt IF EU pops up and EURJPY bangs above 126.50
GBPJPY-
• A nice recovery yesterday sees this having had a nice little breather and possibly ready to advance
• Needs Cable and USDJPY to advance north
• Best of the 3 and waiting for break of 136.50
Verdict……….
Looking for a long position on GBPJPY should cable and UJ remain supported above the averages.
Targeting 4hr 50sma at 137.30 then WP at 138.50
Alternatively a small position on USDJPY if it breaks up through WP
Have a good morning.
Wow, what a rollercoaster of a week! Today's been a great end to the week though, seeing some fab trades
I went for a super-safe 25 pips on usdjpy (liking usdjpy this week, he's been good to me).Thanks for all your hard work Dan. The Club is brilliant, I'm in it for the long haul!
Have a great weekend. See you next week for some nice longs on cable (maybe...)
Julie
danarm
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Hi all
Danny Boy has a smile on his face!!!
Well done to those who traded Gold.
I am done for the week. After struggling big time on Tue, Wed & Thurs. I have made back any losses with more than enough pips to buy those shoes for the misses.
Trading can bash u round like a squash ball but it will never beat me!!!
Apologies for being grumpy mid week but at least we all finish happy for the weekend.
Well done team and see u on monday.
D
Danny Boy has a smile on his face!!!
Well done to those who traded Gold.
I am done for the week. After struggling big time on Tue, Wed & Thurs. I have made back any losses with more than enough pips to buy those shoes for the misses.
Trading can bash u round like a squash ball but it will never beat me!!!
Apologies for being grumpy mid week but at least we all finish happy for the weekend.
Well done team and see u on monday.
D
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danarm
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Wow, what a rollercoaster of a week! Today's been a great end to the week though, seeing some fab trades
Thanks for all your hard work Dan. The Club is brilliant, I'm in it for the long haul!
Have a great weekend. See you next week for some nice longs on cable (maybe...)
Julie
Hi Julie
USDJPY is a good one...Good thinking.
Its controlled and safe and i am starting to love picking up the odd 10 to 20 pips on this currency. You can have very tight stops and increased risk on this one.
Ok well done and see you monday am.
D
danarm
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CABLE EURUSD EURGBP - Friday 13th March
Good afternoon
What a morning and what a day! Well traded to you all…
GBP is supported above this 4hr 20ma so we should look to keep buying on any dips until it breaks back down.
CABLE
• The 4hr 20ma has broken and GBP looks supported above it.
• Need to be patient and wait to see if we get another push up this afternoon.
• A break back above the 1.4050 level should see 1.4090 met as a profit target.
• Watch GBPJPY for break up as well for GBP strength.
• Patience needed.
EURUSD
• The Daily 50ma is holding as resistance.
• Yes the EUR is supported at the moment but wondering what my upside would be.
• A break back above 1.2915 or break of 15min 50ma would signal further EUR strength.
• Not one for me at the moment.
EURGBP
• The break is on and EUR has weakened.
• Need to see CABLE break back above the 1.4050 level for EURGBP to move lower.
• Look for pullback towards the 60min 20ma and then a further short might be possible.
• Watch CABLE for direction and at the moment GBP is weakening.
Good afternoon
What a morning and what a day! Well traded to you all…
GBP is supported above this 4hr 20ma so we should look to keep buying on any dips until it breaks back down.
CABLE
• The 4hr 20ma has broken and GBP looks supported above it.
• Need to be patient and wait to see if we get another push up this afternoon.
• A break back above the 1.4050 level should see 1.4090 met as a profit target.
• Watch GBPJPY for break up as well for GBP strength.
• Patience needed.
EURUSD
• The Daily 50ma is holding as resistance.
• Yes the EUR is supported at the moment but wondering what my upside would be.
• A break back above 1.2915 or break of 15min 50ma would signal further EUR strength.
• Not one for me at the moment.
EURGBP
• The break is on and EUR has weakened.
• Need to see CABLE break back above the 1.4050 level for EURGBP to move lower.
• Look for pullback towards the 60min 20ma and then a further short might be possible.
• Watch CABLE for direction and at the moment GBP is weakening.
danarm
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New York Open - Friday 13th March
Good afternoon all…..
Well well well, another day in pip-paradise but what’s left for us this afternoon??
US trade balance in 15m so be careful but Swiss weakness back on the cards at the moment.
USDJPY-
• Looks like a 15m 123 here with a tight stop below the figure
• Looks sure to test the .65 level but may fall back from there so short opportunity up there as and when it arrives at this destination
GBPJPY-
• Needs to break WP at 138.50 for another push but break of 138.00 might see it push to that level
EURJPY-
• Needs EURUSD to break above 12900 but looks good to go
Verdict……
Waiting for news but only interested in long positions
No levels to watch as such but 15m 123’s look to be on the cards.
Also look out for 123’s on all swiss pairs long.
Will keep you posted
Have a good session.
Good afternoon all…..
Well well well, another day in pip-paradise but what’s left for us this afternoon??
US trade balance in 15m so be careful but Swiss weakness back on the cards at the moment.
USDJPY-
• Looks like a 15m 123 here with a tight stop below the figure
• Looks sure to test the .65 level but may fall back from there so short opportunity up there as and when it arrives at this destination
GBPJPY-
• Needs to break WP at 138.50 for another push but break of 138.00 might see it push to that level
EURJPY-
• Needs EURUSD to break above 12900 but looks good to go
Verdict……
Waiting for news but only interested in long positions
No levels to watch as such but 15m 123’s look to be on the cards.
Also look out for 123’s on all swiss pairs long.
Will keep you posted
Have a good session.
danarm
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The second Friday the 13th in a row did not turn out to be unlucky (sofar) as the market feel good factor is still with us. Kazakh bankscontinue to rally with KKB approaching pre Bta and Allibknationalisation levels. Russian corps remain pretty dull with a betterbid bias. As I am writing the market is off its highs, Russia 30shaving rallied 6pts this week are suffering from a bout of profit takingwhich is hardly surprising given the rally these past few days. Its amazing what a rally does to the psyche of market participants asthey highlight the so called green shoots that are out there right now.I will give you a couple being mentioned, Banks having a fantasticquarter and start to the year. Well blow me down with a feather, anupward sloping yield curve, funding rates at zero, bid offer spreadswider than the Amazon and record high grade issuance. Well if bankscan't make money in that environment then we should all give up and goback to farming. My point is of course banks have had a good start tothe year (as I have mentioned already this year) and this is a positive.The negative is that they are still sitting on far too much toxic cr*pin an environment where default rates continue to rise to potentiallyhistorically high levels that will clearly hit the banks later on thisyear. Other green shoots are increased lending and commodity pricescreeping back up. Don't get me wrong I love a rallying market and I amnot saying this rally is over (and I hope its not) it just makes mechuckle how quickly all the sheep change their views from being suicidalto thinking about ordering a new 911! All eyes on the G20 financeministers meeting this weekend, can they get blood out of a stone, canthey avoid protectionism, we will find out by Monday. Enjoy the w/eall!
Mr P......
Mr P......
darkness123
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Good trading Friday!
danarm
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Evening all
Amazing how quickly the weekends go by...
It was a tough mid week last week but looking forward to the London Open tom am.
See you all at 6.45am and lets have a cracking week.
250 pips is our target and lets get there as a team.
D
Amazing how quickly the weekends go by...
It was a tough mid week last week but looking forward to the London Open tom am.
See you all at 6.45am and lets have a cracking week.
250 pips is our target and lets get there as a team.
D
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If you are unsure about the latest news...dont hessatate to look on the link below, all the latest news is updated daily, very helpful if you are looking into working with the markets to keep ontop of the latest headlines...
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danarm
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London Open Notes - Monday 16th March
Good morning
Trust you all had a good weekend.
CABLE
• GBP has recovered a little from its lows and we could see a Golden Cross on our 60min chart today signaling GBP strength.
• Heavy resistance with the Daily 20ma just above at 1.4105.
• Look for the cross to happen and then support off it before any long plays.
• If the Daily 20ma holds as resistance then we should look for the break back below the WP and MS1 at the 1.3900 level.
• Patience required and wait for a confirmed support.
EURUSD
• Keep an eye on the 4 hour chart. Look for the Golden Cross with the Daily 20ma and 50ma.
• Resistance with the Daily 50ma and DR2 at 1.2950.
• The 4hr 20ma is holding as support so any break through here would see weakness down to the MP.
• The 15min chart is showing small signs of support above the DP and 60min 20ma with stop behind.
• The EUR is in a period of support and if the 4hr chart gets that confirmed Golden Cross then look for continued EUR strength.
• It needs to break the 50ma but there is signs of strength here
EURGBP
• Needs a pullback but with EUR strength across the board the pullback isn’t really happening.
• If EUR strengthens this am I wont be looking at any long plays until we see a break back above the DP and 60min 50ma.
• Verdict – Stay away for now and until we get this break back above the resistance.
Verdict
CABLE – Boxed lets wait for break.
EURUSD – Daily 50ma is heavy resistance but signs of EUR strength
EURGBP – Patience here.
Good morning
Trust you all had a good weekend.
CABLE
• GBP has recovered a little from its lows and we could see a Golden Cross on our 60min chart today signaling GBP strength.
• Heavy resistance with the Daily 20ma just above at 1.4105.
• Look for the cross to happen and then support off it before any long plays.
• If the Daily 20ma holds as resistance then we should look for the break back below the WP and MS1 at the 1.3900 level.
• Patience required and wait for a confirmed support.
EURUSD
• Keep an eye on the 4 hour chart. Look for the Golden Cross with the Daily 20ma and 50ma.
• Resistance with the Daily 50ma and DR2 at 1.2950.
• The 4hr 20ma is holding as support so any break through here would see weakness down to the MP.
• The 15min chart is showing small signs of support above the DP and 60min 20ma with stop behind.
• The EUR is in a period of support and if the 4hr chart gets that confirmed Golden Cross then look for continued EUR strength.
• It needs to break the 50ma but there is signs of strength here
EURGBP
• Needs a pullback but with EUR strength across the board the pullback isn’t really happening.
• If EUR strengthens this am I wont be looking at any long plays until we see a break back above the DP and 60min 50ma.
• Verdict – Stay away for now and until we get this break back above the resistance.
Verdict
CABLE – Boxed lets wait for break.
EURUSD – Daily 50ma is heavy resistance but signs of EUR strength
EURGBP – Patience here.
danarm
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Good afternoon all
An interesting day..As expected CABLE and EUR were going to find strength but the question this morning was all about entry points.
Many missed the entry this am unless u went long at 6.15am or 6.30am. The usual suspects made 100 or so pips however as per usual by the time 7.00am came the currencies had just moved those extra few pips to make it more risky which means stops had to be widened.
My lesson learnt today is dont be too hesitant with the newbies, place the trade and keep a tight stop below previous candle.
However the afternoon was awesome. Many went short CABLE and GBPJPY for between 50 - 100 pips so happy days. Zak mentored them like a true professional. Very controlled and a slow grind lower.
Well done team and excellent day overall.
See u tom.
Dan
An interesting day..As expected CABLE and EUR were going to find strength but the question this morning was all about entry points.
Many missed the entry this am unless u went long at 6.15am or 6.30am. The usual suspects made 100 or so pips however as per usual by the time 7.00am came the currencies had just moved those extra few pips to make it more risky which means stops had to be widened.
My lesson learnt today is dont be too hesitant with the newbies, place the trade and keep a tight stop below previous candle.
However the afternoon was awesome. Many went short CABLE and GBPJPY for between 50 - 100 pips so happy days. Zak mentored them like a true professional. Very controlled and a slow grind lower.
Well done team and excellent day overall.
See u tom.
Dan
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danarm
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New York Open Notes - Monday 16th March
Good afternoon all……..
All I see on these charts is green green green so looking for some potential pullbacks this afternoon.
1pm sees TIC long term purchasing numbers so a little time to squeeze some pippage in prior to that number.
USDJPY-
• Has attacked the high of last Friday but has been repelled
• Might be an opportunity to go long if we see 98.25 with a stop just below 60m 20ema at 98.10
GBPJPY-
• A nice break of the 138.00 level with me on the fence has seen this move 200 pips already
• A little tired now so possible shorting opportunity through 139.50 should cable and UJ fail to hold up
• Not looking to go long but 142.00 looks an interesting level to start building a long-term position with 2000-3000 pips of potential back up to weekly 50sma
EURJPY-
• Again, a bid market with no signs of slowing just yet
• Can’t go long at these levels and not a shorting opportunity with EURUSD looking very strong
Verdict….
Looking for a small long position on USDJPY if I can get .25 but failing that will look to play small reversal on GBPJPY through 139.50 which is far more risky
Good afternoon all……..
All I see on these charts is green green green so looking for some potential pullbacks this afternoon.
1pm sees TIC long term purchasing numbers so a little time to squeeze some pippage in prior to that number.
USDJPY-
• Has attacked the high of last Friday but has been repelled
• Might be an opportunity to go long if we see 98.25 with a stop just below 60m 20ema at 98.10
GBPJPY-
• A nice break of the 138.00 level with me on the fence has seen this move 200 pips already
• A little tired now so possible shorting opportunity through 139.50 should cable and UJ fail to hold up
• Not looking to go long but 142.00 looks an interesting level to start building a long-term position with 2000-3000 pips of potential back up to weekly 50sma
EURJPY-
• Again, a bid market with no signs of slowing just yet
• Can’t go long at these levels and not a shorting opportunity with EURUSD looking very strong
Verdict….
Looking for a small long position on USDJPY if I can get .25 but failing that will look to play small reversal on GBPJPY through 139.50 which is far more risky
danarm
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Nothing new came out over the weekend's summit aside from the fact weshould all work this out together and be one happy family. I had adream last night (I know I need to get a life!) about a British companyonly contracting out work to other British firms. What my dream wastrying to tell me is that everyone will smile and come out with somenice sound bites however when they go back home they are still going tolook after number 1! The more I think about the market the more I hate being consensus.Consensus at the moment is that this is a bear market rally that couldlast not just days but several weeks or months. The consensus positionswere long CDS and long some liquid cash bonds. Well funnily enough cashis underperforming the CDS that is gapping tighter. Turkey is a goodexample of the market psyche at the moment, locals were no where to beseen 10 days ago and cash buyers non existent however after a 10 ptrally I am now starting to see buyers of Turkey cash again plus the CDSis 100bp tighter in a week. Where were you 10 points ago I ask? I fearthis is a classic top and tail trade thus making the exposure to a selloff even worse as everyone has for one reason or another taken off theirTexas hedge trade and others actually gone long. The short story isthat if you are positioned and doing the same trade as everyone else atthe moment you should ask yourself has this strategy worked over thepast 18 months and why should this time be any different? Flow on the desk was pretty striking, ie 80% of flow was biased toselling cash, despite the feel good factor in stocks this has not beenpassed onto EM corps that remain fair value and illiquid (althoughbetter than 2 weeks ago) in my view. The consensus rally is here tostay until all the shorts have closed, accounts are long and theneveryone realises nothing has changed and we are still in a mighty deephole without a ladder.
Mr P.....
Mr P.....
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