It's All About The Pips...

[danarm]

So a little action in EM to report. It appears that all the ratingagencies have recently returned from a 6 month sabbatical as they havebeen downgrading every man and his dog these past few days. Whatstaggers me is that rating agency moves still have an effect on themarket. Ukraine a country that has been on its knees for nearly 6months, its bonds trading at 35, its CDS trading up front, and yetfollowing a downgrade there are sellers out there!! Turkey is back onstock watch again tracking the S&P although interestingly the cash seemsto be in demand about as much as a Kazakh bank. I really don't have a clue where stocks are going near term, longer termlooking at the charts I fear much lower. People are banging on about USCDS trading at 100 over etc what if they default? Well bottom line itsnot happening, if you don't like the dollar what do you want to buy theEuro or Pound instead? For those of you who have seen Die Hard with aVengeance will know that thanks to Bruce Willis and Samuel L Jackson(it's a true story!) the US have got plenty of gold reserves (at leastGW didn't sell a chunk of reserves at the lows unlike some one else Iknow!) and the way all the economies are going Gold is going to be theonly commodity that the world cares about in the future and therefore ifyou have a lot of it your in better shape than your neighbours who soldtheirs. Bottom line this whole thing is all about the dollar, and theUS economy until we do see some green shoots in the US the outlook isstill extremely uncertain.

Mr P.....

 

[PaulKing]

Can audio alarms be set to ma's?

Hello Dan

Do you (or anyone else who contributes to your thread, such as Rolling Stone / Scorpion) know if it is possible to link alarms to moving averages rather than pure price levels?

If anyone has found how to do this, could they possibly post some instructions on this thread?

Not surprisingly Dan, I want to know when price action hits 'your best buddy' (the 60m 20sma) outside of core trading times when I am not actively monitoring all the charts

with thanks in advance
keep topping up those pip tins :clap:
Paul

 

[Rollingstone]

MA crossover indicator

Hello Dan

Do you (or anyone else who contributes to your thread, such as Rolling Stone / Scorpion) know if it is possible to link alarms to moving averages rather than pure price levels?

If anyone has found how to do this, could they possibly post some instructions on this thread?

Not surprisingly Dan, I want to know when price action hits 'your best buddy' (the 60m 20sma) outside of core trading times when I am not actively monitoring all the charts

with thanks in advance
keep topping up those pip tins :clap:
Paul

Morning Paul

I've got an indicator (somewhere) that gives an arrow on the chart and gives an audio alers (I think) for moving average cross-overs.

I must admit I don't use it now but you are welcome to it if it is of interest, let me know I will see if I can find it.

I've got Ivor Chestycoff staying at the moment (ha ha) so a bit bleary eyed this morning.

Have a good day,

RS/Scorpion

 

[mauzj]

I was thinking of writing an indicator to do this the other day, but have not got round to doing it. Is there anything out there already?

Hello Dan

Do you (or anyone else who contributes to your thread, such as Rolling Stone / Scorpion) know if it is possible to link alarms to moving averages rather than pure price levels?

If anyone has found how to do this, could they possibly post some instructions on this thread?

Not surprisingly Dan, I want to know when price action hits 'your best buddy' (the 60m 20sma) outside of core trading times when I am not actively monitoring all the charts

with thanks in advance
keep topping up those pip tins :clap:
Paul

 

[danarm]

London Open Notes - Thursday 26th February


Good morning London and the rest of the world…

I am packing my house and I have to say I hate every minute. Bring on Saturday when I can sit back and relax!!!

GBP Figs at 7.00am – Nationwide HPI
10.30am – BOE Gov King

CABLE
• GBP looks weak again with yesterdays low at 1.4160.
• There is a lot of support around the 1.4000/1.4150 area
• I would be very careful with CABLE around these levels until we break this support from early FEB.
• If you are going to trade short, keep tight stops.
• 5.00am was the time to enter and same with EURUSD.


EURUSD*
• My longer term view is bearish as you know and 60min chart looks weak again and testing the support level.
• The trend hasn’t been clear over the last couple of weeks but with the 4hr 20ma at 1.2760 its worth looking at for a short play.
• Use the 4hr 20ma and 60min 20ma to your advantage.

USDCAD
• With CABLE looking weak again and USD strength coming into play USDCAD has found support.
• Resistance at 1.2600 on 60min chart.
• 15min chart shows break of resistance at 1.2545. If we see USD strength come into play look for small long but again with tight stop due to CABLE at large support levels.
• Use trigger here if possible.

EURGBP
• With GBP falling with EUR, EURGBP has gathered momentum and is now showing signs of support off the Daily 20ma.
• Watch any break back above the 0.8940/50 level.
• Likewise watch EURUSD and CABLE for help with direction.
• Any break below the 60min 20ma could see a few pips down to the 4hr 20ma.

AUDUSD
• USD strength coming back into play and if EURUSD falls watch AUDUSD weaken to its WP and support on the 60min chart.
• Any break below the 0.6400 level would see larger moves south.
• Daily 20ma at 0.6500 is previous high and immediate resistance.
• If USD weakens then look for break here up to the WR1 for 50 pips.
GOLD
• $1000 was a great place to bank the long trades ahead of previous highs.
• The Golden Cross is coming back into pay on the south side but believe this is only a small retracement before taking off again.
• Yesterdays low at $944.00.
• Yes downward trend but too far away from the 60min 20ma this morning to trade.
• Wait for better entry or play bounce off the $944.00 with tight stop below.

Dan

 

[danarm]

JPY & CHF Desk Notes - Thursday 26th February

Good morning all….

A very nice day yesterday overall, which was good after a slowish start to the week.

This morning sees a slightly conflicting opinion in my eyes with USDJPY looking pretty strong still but EURUSD and GBPUSD looking weak.
This is tough to gauge when trying to trade Yen crosses so we’ll take a good look at the Swiss pairs too.

USDJPY-
• Getting close to the all important 100.00. can we get it this week?
• Looks a little bit tired up here but not looking for short positions as there’s no gaps big enough

EURJPY-
• Potential double top at 12500 might be indicative of a little reversal
• Trying to break 60m 20ema but with pivot directly below there’s no potential of a short above 12400
• Look for break of that region then target 60m 50sma then WR2 then 4hr 20ema

GBPJPY-
• Potential 200 pips yesterday in all on this one from 14000 down to 4hr 20ema. Shame it didn’t fall to T3 & T4 but not bad all the same
• Need to see USDJPY fall off to get break of 15m 50sma to the south so watch that and GBPUSD, then look for break of 13880 and target 4hr 20ema at 13825, previous low of 13800 then WR1 at 13700

USDCHF-
• Looks quite good to move up even with resistance at 11750.
• A break of that area could see 11900 being hit
• Keep an eye on EURUSD moving in the opposite direction
• Only 25 pip stop required so small risk

GBPCHF-
• Fallen a long long way yesterday once through the 4hr 20ema. 4hr 50sma was also key here.
• Looks like a move lower imminent but with USDCHF moving up I am not interested in this pair for a push lower

EURCHF-
• Look for break of DP at 14865 targeting firstly the WP at .35 then 14800

VERDICT……..

Long position on USDCHF IF EURUSD holds below 12700
Short position on GBPCHF IF EURUSD moves up as USDCHF would then fall with a weak cable (if holding below 14200) forcing this pair lower

Have a great morning

Zak

 

[danarm]

What a morning and controlled trading again...

We concentrated on shorting GBPCHF, GBPUSD & GBPJPY (manily) but pips were made by Team London in GOLD & EURGBP as well...

Over 100 pips again this am and the end of the month is looking good on the pip count again. Thats 3 sessions with over 100+ pips in each.

Well traded...

D

 

[PaulKing]

alarms!

Morning Paul

I've got an indicator (somewhere) that gives an arrow on the chart and gives an audio alers (I think) for moving average cross-overs.

I must admit I don't use it now but you are welcome to it if it is of interest, let me know I will see if I can find it.

I've got Ivor Chestycoff staying at the moment (ha ha) so a bit bleary eyed this morning.

Have a good day,

RS/Scorpion

Hey RS/Scorpion

Very sorry to hear about your visitor, I hope his departure is imminent and that you are drinking plenty and keeping nice & warm?

As to the indicator, (had a feeling you would be the right person to ask) I would be grateful for what ever you have hidden away in the archives!

Don't worry about hunting around until you are feeling better though

thanks again
best
Paul

 

[danarm]

New York Open Notes - Thursday 26th February

Good afternoon all…..

USDJPY is still moving up slowly. It’s sooo bid this market that contemplating anything short on Yen pairs is proving to be very difficult.

Unemployment claims and Durable goods numbers out this afternoon so best to be cautious until they pass.
Anything under -1.9 for durable goods and less than 610k on unemployment should see USDJPY move up rather rapidly but cannot buy at these levels.

For the record, the mentioned pair is controlling EURJPY and GBPJPY so these two have moved a lot so no notes are going to get us into either of these this session.

USDCHF- look for break below 11600 if EURUSD breaks north of 12810
GBPCHF-look for break above pivot at 16700 if USDCHF finds support at 11600 and EURUSD fails to hold above 12800. alternatively wait for little drop back to 60m 20 at 16635 then play bounce back up to the pivot to see what happens.

EURCHF needs to break WP at 14830 for continuation down.

I will be keeping you posted but Yens are out unless USDJPY can break below 97.60 on back of bad numbers. I’d be looking to target 97.00 if that’s the case.

Have a good afternoon.

 

[danarm]

Well for a nice change this closing commentary will be full of joy and good news (well the first few lines will). The market thanks to various bail out packages in the UK and the US plus RBS only losing £24bn last year equates to a market in a buoyant mood. In addition I am pleased to report that I even saw some buying in Kazakh banks. On the most part investors are steering well clear of Allibk and Bta however we are seeing buying of Halyk and KKB which were hit in the cross fire, an encouraging sign. Elsewhere despite the weaker govy market and better stock markets, it felt like there were plenty of Russian corporates for sale in the street as the local bid slowly disappears. As always I am very sceptical of crowded trades, if the sheep are running in one direction I tend to try and go the other way although as always timing is key as a flock of sheep can still do you some nasty damage. The one trade that seems to be all the rage at the moment are high grade corporate issuance. I am hearing record sized deals, superb secondary performance, its almost reminiscent of the Nasdaq IPO boom of 2000, anything with a .com on it is a no brainer you know the rest. My point is at some stage I guarantee this will all end in tears and when it does EM will get caught in the crossfire especially Russian Corps that continue to look fair value at best vs the rest of the world. Amazingly its month end tomorrow so further window dressing cannot be ruled out, January was a good month for most banks and funds February has not been so friendly.

Mr P......

 

[danarm]

Well traded today...

A good morning but quiet afternoon session. As you know, a good trader knows when to stay out of the market!

See you at 7.00am tom. Its friday and cant wait...

D

 

[Rollingstone]

Moving Average Crossover with sound/email alert

Hey RS/Scorpion

Very sorry to hear about your visitor, I hope his departure is imminent and that you are drinking plenty and keeping nice & warm?

As to the indicator, (had a feeling you would be the right person to ask) I would be grateful for what ever you have hidden away in the archives!

Don't worry about hunting around until you are feeling better though

thanks again
best
Paul

Hi Paul

Oh, aren't you lovely! Yes drinking loads and keeping toasty warm thanks. Old Ivor is still hanging around and very unwelcome!

Anyway, had a little rootle tootle and found the attached indicator which gives either a sound alert or email alert - BUT I have never used the email alert so not sure about that bit.

All you have to do is set the sound alert to true in the code, the moving average type (simple, exponential etc) and which two MA periods you want the alert on.

In my Danless days when I was looking at this I seem to remember it would cross and un-cross during the course of the candle building so it is only really reliable at the end of the candle of whatever timeframe you are using it on.

Hope this helps, if nothing else I guess it will give you a base to start and someone clever can add to it?

Bon chance!

RS

 

[PaulKing]

Alarm on MA's

Hi Paul

Oh, aren't you lovely! Yes drinking loads and keeping toasty warm thanks. Old Ivor is still hanging around and very unwelcome!

Anyway, had a little rootle tootle and found the attached indicator which gives either a sound alert or email alert - BUT I have never used the email alert so not sure about that bit.

All you have to do is set the sound alert to true in the code, the moving average type (simple, exponential etc) and which two MA periods you want the alert on.

In my Danless days when I was looking at this I seem to remember it would cross and un-cross during the course of the candle building so it is only really reliable at the end of the candle of whatever timeframe you are using it on.

Hope this helps, if nothing else I guess it will give you a base to start and someone clever can add to it?

Bon chance!

RS

RS you are an absolute star!

I've loaded it in thanks, so I'll see how it performs & then be asking around for help to modify I'm sure.

Many thanks for your 'started for ten' & get well soon (at least for the weekend, wouldn't go into work tomorrow, incase that makes you worse)

best et merci beaucoup
Paul

 

[danarm]

London Open Notes - Friday 27th February

Good morning all

It’s Friday and we have to have to happy on Fridays so no negative talk about the economy!! Let’s make a few cheeky pips and then enjoy the weekend…

CABLE
• Ok GBPJPY is boxed in so we need to wait for CABLE direction.
• The 60min chart looks bearish with eth 60min 20ma crossing the 50ma.
• 15min chart is being held by the 1.4250 level.
• Look for GBPJPY for direction with GBP.


EURUSD
• Support around the 1.2675 level
• Resistance at top of triangle around the 1.2775 level.
• Look for EUR direction with EURJPY to gauge which direction the break will go.
• My longer term thoughts are that the EUR falls off but aren’t exactly receiving good news from the States or the UK recently.

EURGBP
• Resistance at 0.8925 level
• Support at WP and 4hr 20ma at 0.8885 level.
• Look for EURUSD and GBPUSD for help with direction and wait for break.


USDCAD
• A difficult chart to trade at the moment.
• Will the WP hold support at 1.2525 and push up to break resistance at 1.2600?
• Well for this to happen you need GBPJPY to break 4hr 20ma and CABLE to break lower and test lows at 1.4150 again.

AUDUSD
• 60min support line and any break through the 0.6425 level would signal a break and a push lower.
• You need USD strength across the board for this to happen so get confirmation from USDCAD pushing higher and EURSD pushing lower.

GOLD
• This is a small retracement before pushing higher again I feel.
• Triangle formed and look for break or play inside triangle with a tight stop.

Enjoy

Dan

 

[danarm]

JPY Desk -Friday 27th February

Good morning all…..

End of the week and looking forward to relaxing in the sun for a couple of days.

It doesn’t look like our 100.00 will get hit on USDJPY today sadly so might have to wait a bit on that.
Look at the daily chart for GBPJPY too. In desperate need of a pullback!

So,

USDJPY
• Fell through the 60m 20ema eventually but has now bounced off the 60m 50sma so awaiting clear confirmation before getting excited.
• Might be worth a little short here with a tiny stake and 30 pip stop above the pivot
• Can’t go long below 98.50
• Prefer GBPJPY myself

GBPJPY
• Bounced off 4hr 20ema twice now so showing signs of fatigue
• Double top at 142.00
• Cannot go long below 140.50 and a 400 point pullback to 4hr 50sma preferred
• Looking for break below 139.00

EURJPY
• Had a nice run and looking for short here too
• A break of 4hr 20ema at 123.65 will show the way but as with all yen pairs this session tight stops beyond the pivots will be – in my humble opinion – quite lucrative plays

Swiss pairs are looking too messy to even contemplate so sticking with my guns and shorting all yen pairs only!

Verdict……..

Only looking to buck the longer term trends today.
Have taken small positions on all 3 off the 60m 20’s
Wait for averages to get broken before diving in head-first if uncomfortable with this method

 

[danarm]

Hi all

What a day....We had a plan, we attacked it and made cheeky little pips before breakfast.

GBPJPY, CABLE, EURJPY, EURUSD, AUDUSD for many.

Spread the risk, tight stops and the rest takes care of itself. Some made over 400, others 200 and most over a 100...

A perfect execution on this currency market...Well done Team London. Very impressed with how you are all trading.

Its weekend time for me.

See ya

D

 

[danarm]

New York Open Notes -Friday 27th February

Good afternoon all…..



Dan has left the building, James is back in UK so its just me myself and I this afternoon and when the cats are away the mice, they’re going to play!

1m charts anyone??



GDP out of States today so being careful. It’s Friday too so not going to go mad.



USDJPY

Cheeky little punt turned out OK here but needs to fall below 97.00 to continue
Fancying a bit of sideways action awaiting ma’s to catch up so quite tough to call.


GBPJPY

A solid 100 plus pips here this morning on the break of 4hr 20ema
Still liking it a bit lower and holding part position
Needs to break 137.65 to continue but not looking to go long


EURJPY

Still short and hoping for a bit more
Entry points proving difficult


CABLE

Fallen nicely and maybe a bit more to go yet although WS1 directly below
Needs to break that for push lower. Can’t jump in here


EURUSD

Looks weak below 12650 and with a tight stop above 12675 this could push lower
Only have 5m and 15m 20’s as resistance so not one to really get stuck into but a few pips possible






Verdict……..



Not looking overly appealing at the moment. Lets see what happens after the news…

EURUSD would have to be the pick at the moment though



Zak



Have a great weekend everyone!!!

 

[elitejets]

Thanks Guys

Went back to using very small stakes and it worked for my confidence big time.
2180 pips! .... Mostly on cable, GBPJPY and Crude.
Could have been a bunch more but my week was not without losers.
Big thanks to you all and to Wasp for your help on Sunday.
Nicola

PS no fat fingers either - Japanese trader makes £22 billion mistake - Telegraph

 

[danarm]

Some one had a go at me earlier about wishing my life away, they had apoint however good riddance to February. Pretty quiet end to atraumatic month with Kazakh bonds making a come back of sorts andRussian corps feeling weak without really trading. I am not sure if itis because its Friday but I feel smalls bullish here. My reasoning isthat clearly the problem banks in the UK and US are not to be let go andalthough I still think the equities of these names are worth zero, thesteps that the authorities have made should give some stability to thissector for now. As always my view is very short term and although wemay have stopped the bleeding in the banks for now I still believe thatmarket forces will prevail and that will mean further pain for equityand fixed income investors over the medium term. Enjoy the weekend all.

Mr P....

 

[danarm]

Went back to using very small stakes and it worked for my confidence big time.
2180 pips! .... Mostly on cable, GBPJPY and Crude.
Could have been a bunch more but my week was not without losers.
Big thanks to you all and to Wasp for your help on Sunday.
Nicola

PS no fat fingers either - Japanese trader makes £22 billion mistake - Telegraph

Nicola

That is great...How good does that feel.

What did i say about lowering the stakes and spreading the risk for you all...The game is simple when u make it simple.

There were fantastic results in the room and i am very proud that the strategy is starting to fall into place for so many of you.

Enjoy the weekend. We will continue to make a lot of pips as long as we keep the risk sensible and not get carried away.

Well done team and see you monday at 6.50am.

Dan