It's All About The Pips...

[danarm]

London Open - Wednesday 18th February

Good morning pip hunters

Watch out for 9.30am minutes in the UK.

CABLE
• Sideways movement and triangle forming on 15min chart.
• Any break back above the 4hr 20ma (1.4300 level) would signal a break.
• DP support now at 1.4220 would signal a break down in GBP.
• Watch GBPJPY closely for GBP trend this am.

GBPJPY
• Been a difficult 48 hours for this currency.
• Still feel USDJPY will make a move higher so GBPJPY will be dragged higher with JPY weakness.
• Use the 60min 20ma to your advantage here with any stop below.
• The 4hr 50ma and Daily 50ma is just ahead around the 132.10 level. A break above here is clear air…
• Watch USDJPY for assistance with JPY direction.

GBPCHF
• Price is below the DP around the 1.6670 level. Any break above would see strength back into GBP this am.
• Keep an eye on USDCHF as this is below the 60min 20ma and could see weakness in the USD here which should drag GBPCHF lower. Any break back above the 60min 20ma at 1.1710 would help GBPCHF higher and break its respective level.

EURGBP
• Still short and allowing the 4hr 20ma to catch up.
• Would like to see the 4hr 20ma cross the 4hr 50ma for a further push lower.
• I still see further weakness in the EUR but understand this morning that the EURUSD needs to retrace after big falls 24 to 48 hours ago.
• 0.8800 is the level to break on the 60min chart and then 0.8700 should be met.


EURUSD
• Breaking 60min 20ma as we speak.
• The EUR was oversold yesterday and is now pulling back. Use the 60min 20ma to your advantage. WS1 and DP needs to be broken to close the gap to the 60min 50ma.
• If you don’t like retracements be patient and wait for next break back down through the 60min 20ma. This is what I will be doing as I still like EUR lower.
• Watch EURJPY for EUR direction.


EURJPY
• Breaking 60min 20ma and DP as we speak.
• Look for 123 with support off the 60min 20ma.
• Problem lies with 60min 50ma so close above at 116.75. A break here would signal a push higher.
• Keep an eye on EURUSD and USDJPY for direction.


USDJPY
• Potential triple top forming at 92.75 or resistance level before powering on!!!
• The trend is up and the USD is gaining momentum
• Use the 60min 20ma to your advantage and buy off it with stop below.
• If the triple top holds and USDJPY breaks down then look for break of the $92.00 level.


Have a great morning

Dan

 

[danarm]

USD & Gold - Wednesday 18th February

Morning all,

USDCAD

• Break of WR1 will signal move back towards 1.2550, this level is a major technical support so if you trade look to take 50% of your position off at this level and bring stop down.
• 38% Retracement of the swing up would bring us back to the 4 hourly 20 ma look for support on this level.

AUDUSD

• Broken back through the 60 Minute 20 MA and retracing back towards 4 hourly 20 MA
• Look for the downward sloping resistance level on the 1 hourly and 15 minute chart that tie in with the hourly 50 MA
• 0.6430 will act as a intermidiate support level before the 4 hourly 20 MA is tested.


GOLD

• 1 Hour 21 CCI is creating higher lows suggesting that the buying pressure is slowly weakening.
• A break of 975 would signal a further rally towards the 985 (previous high)
• A double top is forming on the 1 hour chart hitting 974.00
• Wait for a pull back to the hourly 20 MA if this is breached then look for a break of WR1 to the down side. 15 Minute charts will give us entries to Gold
Longer term I have banked 25% of my position.

James

 

[danarm]

Hi Ted

Hope you made that 100 pips...

Just got back and saw EURUSD lower.

Well done.

D

 

[Henryatkin]

I know fundamentals are not our thingy but just wanted to point out that USD index and Gold are both on a rising trend together. The first time since 1982. OK enough said... back to the charts.

 

[danarm]

London Open - Thursday 19th February

Good morning all

CABLE
• Trying to push above the 4hr 20ma again this am.
• 1.4280 is immediate resistance.
• 1.4300 was yesterdays resistance
• Any break back below the 60min 50ma and DP at 1.4220 areas would signal weakness in GBP.
• Lets be careful at 8.00am again as yesterday kicked off at this time.
• My view remains the same. With USDJPY powering up, GBPJPY will remain supported with too many traders long of JPY. This will hold GBPUSD up for the time being.

GBPJPY
• 133.90 is old resistance. A break above 134.00 would see a move to the WR1 level at 136.00
• Look for GBP strength across the board for a break above 133.90.
• If USDJPY breaks down below the DP then watch any weakness in GBPJPY but at the moment I like GBP strength as long as CABLE can break this resistance.

GBPCHF
• Boxed between the 4hr 20ma and 50ma.
• Looks supported on the 15min chart with 60min 20ma just below.
• Watch USDCHF here as if this breaks back above the 60min 20ma some weakness will come to the CHF and GBPCHF would strengthen.

EURGBP
• Looks weak again after yesterdays 8.00am fiasco on the 60min chart.
• You know my thoughts that I like this lower.
• 0.8800 seems to be well supported now
• Watch CABLE and EURUSD for their respective breaks for direction in EURGBP this am as we need EUR weakness for this to fall further.

EURUSD
• 15min chart suggests a box play and we wait for break.
• 1.2600 is resistance and support below the DP around 1.2560 would see EUR weakness.
• With the 60min 20ma just below I am looking for this to gather momentum. Lets see if it can hold. Wait for break…






EURJPY
• 60min triangle…
• Look for support off the WP and DP at 117.20 level.
• A break back above the 118.00 would signal a move higher with a break of previous high.
• Look for EURUSD to break to help with EUR direction and USDJPY for JPY direction.

USDJPY
• This is a tricky one this morning.
• You know I like this higher but small chance of a pullback.
• Look for DP at 93.20 to hold support. Any break here would signal GBPJPY and EURJPY to weaken a little.
• MR1 is main resistance now and will be attacked at some point this week.
• Look for a small break back above the WR2 around 93.65 for strength in the USD today.

USDCHF
• Boxed between the 60min 20ma and 50ma.
• Look for break.
• The 60min 20ma needs to break for signs of CHF weakness. Look for a break above the 1.1755 level.


Dan

 

[danarm]

GOLD, AUDUSD, USDCAD - Thursday 19th February

Morning All,

Well done to those who traded the USDJPY and EURUSD last night great trades.
Gold
• We must be aware that buying seems to be happening during the Asian session ATM
• Break out of the 975.00 level happen at the beginning of the Asian session hope you had orders.
• New level today would be above the 980/982 levels. Limit around the 990 Level
• Risk is with stop below 60 Min 20 MA
AUDUSD
• Support has been found on the WS1 level and we have re – approached the 4H 20MA.
• If a break to the Up through the 4H 20 MA and 0.6430 we have a gap to the previous high of 0.6525 and then the 4H 50 MA
• To the downside if we break the 1H 20MA and 0.6390 we are likely to see this move back to the WS1 level at 0.6350.
USDCAD
• Has had a great play back into the 4H 20MA as per yesterdays notes.
• To the Upside if we find support off this level I will be looking for the break of 1.2600
• If we see a break down through the 4H 20 MA I will drop to the 15 min chart to find a 123 play with a potential run towards the 4H 5


James

 

[danarm]

New York Open - Thursday 19th February

Good afternoon all.

A fantastic morning had by all except Nicola, who seemed to be having a little well-deserved cat nap.
Pips galore on all GBP pairs and a few cheeky ones elsewhere including Ozzie & CAD.

A couple of big numbers out of States today so potentially another big day for USDJPY, who we’ve been touting higher for some time now.

Anyway, into the action…….

GBPUSD
• A nice run north today sees this quite possibly overbought at the moment
• Stuck beneath monthly and weekly pivots so need to see a pullback before going long again off 4hr 20 region
• Long-term daily 20 is still beneath the 50 so caution is required
• Not looking for position this afternoon here.

EURUSD
• Broken 4hr 20 and headed for 50 up at 12800
• Had a big run so can’t go long here
• Waiting for pullback
• Not looking for long position this afternoon

USDCHF
• Tired and looking likely to drag the other Swiss pairs down this afternoon.
• Waiting for break of 11725 targeting the 4hr 20 1st

USDJPY
• Big numbers will stimulate either buying or selling of Yen
• Favouring the upside on break of 93.85

GBPJPY
• As with cable, this pair has had a big run
• 4hr 20 just crossed 50 so positive for longer-term with USDJPY looking bid
• Awaiting 60m pullback before looking again

GBPCHF
• Looks tired having had a big one with GBP
• Looking for little reversal through 16900 to weekly pivot at 16830 region.

EURCHF
• Has had a good move up and now, along with GBPCHF and USDCHF looks a bit tired.
• A break of 14900 might see a play to 60m 20ema at 14800

Verdict…….

Eyeing up the CHF pairs for reversals. Watch the important levels
EURCHF – 14900
GBPCHF – 16900
USDCHF – 11725

Have a good afternoon………Ozzie and Cad to follow…..

 

[danarm]

A city trader...

The market sold off on no news on Tuesday and its rallied today onbasically no news. Some people may point to Obama's latest bail outplan. As far as I read it the nuts and bolts of it are that if you werestupid, if you borrowed too much money vs your income and assets, youget bailed out. This applies to banks or homeowners in the US. One ofthe guys on CNBC made a good point, if these homeowners who get bailedout see their houses go back up in value significantly from here whogets the p&l, the homeowner or the tax payer? I hate to say this but at the moment EM feels a like bit of an orphanedasset class, I feel like the man who got stuck with a load of Betamaxrecorders whilst his next door neighbour was selling VHS recorders likehot cakes (I'm sure the teenagers of today will liken this to DVD vs BluRay). The reasons for us feeling like Annie is that we are no longer acheap one way bet asset class and that in my view remains the case untilwe either widen out vs comparable credits or the G7 governments printingpresses actually start re-inflating the economies and therefore benefitcountries long of commodities. For the record Fitch downgraded a loadof Kazakh banks today, bearing in mind they are trading between 25 and45 I would argue this bad news is easily priced in. Friday tomorrow Iexpect even less activity.

Mr P...

 

[danarm]

Evening all

What a day and what perfect trades taken by you today.

GBP was the main driver this am and USDJPY this afternoon. Look at fx500clubblog.com for the video analysis...

Hundreds on offer and about time we nailed most of them...

Great to see those who have never made 100 pips in one day make that break..>Well done.

Congrats and see you tom.

D

 

[danarm]

London Open - Friday 20th February

Good morning all

CABLE
• GBP powered up and hit the WP at 1.4450 yesterday but has since broken down below the 4hr 20ma, showing signs of GBP weakness again.
• The 15min chart is showing further signs of weakness with the 60min 20ma just above at the 1.4280 level.
• Look for GBP strength or weakness across the board for direction this am.
• CABLE alone looks weak again but I want this confirmed in GBPJPY.


GBPJPY
• Boxed between the 60min 20ma and 50ma.
• Wait for break and look at USDJPY for direction in JPY this am.


GBPCHF
• GBP is trying to hold up above the 4hr 20ma at 1.6750.
• The DP will be 1st resistance level on 15min chart at 1.6805.
• Look for break and strength in GBP above the DP for a move higher.
• Tight stop below the 60min 20ma at 80.
• If GBP across the board weakens this am look for a break below the 4hr 20ma.


USDJPY
• We have read this like a dream and the USD is powering up well.
• Resistance at 94.50 at previous high on 60min chart.
• 15 min chart is channeling with support at DP 93.91 level and resistance at 94.22.
• Watch break of these levels. Give yourself a few pips either side.


EURJPY
• Boxed between the 60min 20ma and 50ma.
• Watch break of USDJPY and EURUSD for direction


EURUSD
• EUR as well as CABLE fell off heavily yesterday with USD strength coming into play.
• 60min trigger is down but the 15min chart shows signs of weakness below the 60min 20ma and 50ma.




EURGBP
• With GBP weakening last night against the USD EURGBP had a pop after testing the 0.8750 level.
• Boxed between the 60min 20ma and 50ma.
• Look for break of 35 level on downside and 65 on upside.


Its Friday…Lets keep the pips safe today after an excellent day yesterday.

Tight stops and less risk on your plays.

Dan

 

[danarm]

New York Open – Friday 20th February


Good afternoon all. I hope you’re feeling in the mood. I certainly am looking forward to a few more pips in the tin prior to the weekend.

Core CPI month on month numbers out this afternoon with expectations of a positive number after -0.1 last month.
The current trend over the last 5 months suggests that numbers could actually fall below expectations, which would prompt some selling of USD and if this is the case I’d expect USDJPY to fall off a little.
However, I am ‘hopeful’ that the forecasters are better at their jobs than I and that the numbers come in better than expected to see our longer-term USDJPY moving up.

GBPUSD-
• Looks pretty bid but no golden cross yet.
• Needs to break above WP & MP at 14400 level for push higher.
• Bounced off daily 20ema this a.m so not looking for position in this pair unless it breaks below 15m 50 at 14240.

EURUSD
• Bounced perfectly off 4hr 20ema this a.m
• Now breaking back below averages so short term short position preferred
• Needs to break 12560 to confirm move down but with that level some 40pips away may be a play to there to see what happens
• Awaiting 123 south on 5m chart.

EURGBP
• Back below the averages and with EURUSD looking weaker than GBPUSD at the moment the downside is preferred.
• Needs to break 0.8800 to show this will move lower.
• Will keep you posted as the session goes on with this as GBP could weaken rapidly.

USDJPY
• Hoping for good US data out at 1:30 and will take a long position on the break of 9420 if that happens.

USDCHF
• Will break up further if EURUSD falls. A little overbought from this morning in my opinion and bounce off 60m 20ema preferred.

GBPJPY
• Can’t really touch this pair with USDJPY looking bid and GBPUSD looking offered.
• Break of 13500 might see it higher at some point but back bench material for this afternoon.

EURJPY
• Needing to break 11800 for a push lower but again, being tugged down by EURUSD and up by USDJPY.
• Needs to break 11900 for a move to 12000.
• Not one for this afternoon and will be looking elsewhere.

GBPCHF
• Not interested in playing this retracement unless breaks 16900.
• Only 80 pips to downside but may be worth a small one IF USDCHF fails to move up.

EURCHF
• Took a small short back through the weekly pivot targeting 14900.
• Making higher highs so long term suggests higher.
• Looking for 123 on 60m chart.

VERDICT:-

USDJPY is the one I am sticking with for the time-being. We made a few pips on the way down this morning and I am thinking a break of .20 might see a move to .50 and then beyond IF breaking session highs from yesterday.

More to follow as things develop.

Have a good afternoon.

zZzak

 

[danarm]

Hi all

I am knackered but really pleased with the week and how the team is progressing...

This week i have seen controlled, consistent and relaxed trading from the group.

Hundreds of pips available and emails coming through saying how happy they are.

Well done Team London. Great effort and bring on the pips next week.

I am addicted to pips, i love pips, i adore pips...Infact i cant get enough pips!!! Thats what its all about and lets make even more pips from monday.

Happy Dan...See u then.

D

 

[danarm]

Morning all

Rollingstone i received your card on friday..Thanks very much.

When did you send it? Wasn't that mid December?

I still owe you that dinner when i am back in London.

Speak soon

D

 

[danarm]

Evening Pipsters

Trust everyone had a good weekend.

I have packed all weekend ready for my big move next saturday. How boring can it get!!!

Looking forward to monday already. See you in the room at 6.45am and notes will be out by 6.50am.

Off to cook a curry. Lets spice it up!!!

D

 

[Rollingstone]

Hunger pains

Morning all

Rollingstone i received your card on friday..Thanks very much.

When did you send it? Wasn't that mid December?

I still owe you that dinner when i am back in London.

Speak soon

D

Hi Dan

I've got the lurgy.

Glad you got the card, can't remember it was so long ago!

Hurry up with that dinner, I'm wasting away here, I'm still looking forward to it. Rugby and curry with you and Rock would be mighty fine!

Good luck with the move and take care of Mrs Dan and baby Dan.

RS

 

[Black Swan]

In terms of UK time when's best to check in for the heads up/advice/notes on this thread? TIA

 

[danarm]

JPY AM London Open - Monday 23rd February

Good morning all.

I am doing Dan’s JPY notes today.

USDJPY
• Had a big run last week and possibly just pulling back to 4hr 50sma at 92.00
• Below 92.80 could see an opportunity for a short position to that 4hr 50.
• 4hr CCI now in negative, so not really a long prior to break up of 60m 50 at 93.70 although we could play a little bounce off the 4hr 50 with a tight stop below and see how it goes.

GBPJPY
• Still looking strong with cable trying to move up but concerned that USDJPY falling will hinder any possible gains on this pair.
• 135.40 is the level to look for should UJ make it back above the pivot.
• Tread with caution on this pair. Cable has the daily 50 up ahead so with UJ looking a little weak at the moment the most likely direction would be down IF cable fails to break up with aggression.

EURJPY
• Trapped at the top end of the daily 20/50 box
• With EURUSD having moved so far up in a straight line, how much more can this go before it tires.
• In my opinion these Yen pairs should all fall back to support.

VERDICT…………

Although GBPJPY and EURJPY are above the averages, with EURUSD and GBPUSD looking a little tired I would not be buying the former 2 pairs at the moment.
I would prefer to trade USDJPY short as it’s below the averages, so looking for a break of 92.70

Have a good morning.

Zak

 

[danarm]

London Open Review - Monday 23rd February


Good morning Team London

Mr Trichet is speaking at 8.10am today.

CABLE
• GBP has re gathered its momentum and MP at 1.4470 is immediate support and look for long plays if this level can hold.
• The Golden Cross (4hr 20ma and 50ma) is positive for GBP.
• Daily 50ma will be resistance at 1.4575 level, however immediate resistance is at previous high at 1.4550.
• Look to buy close to the 60min 20ma and watch GBPJPY for strength.
• USDJPY is telling me this is a weak USD play so EUR and GBP are supported for now.
• Yes watch GBPJPY but USDJPY looks weak so wondering how much momentum GBPJPY will have this am.

EURUSD
• Broken Daily 20ma at 1.2865
• 15min support line and resistance at 1.2950.
• Watch break of either level for EUR play and watch EURJPY for help with EUR direction.

EURGBP
• This is a USD move and EUR and GBP are both gathering momentum.
• Ascending triangle forming on 60min chart.
• 0.8925 resistance and support around the 0.8800 level.
• Boxed between the 4hr 20ma and 50ma and look for immediate break for strength or weakness over GBP.

USDCAD
• USD weakness as mentioned is coming into play and USDCAD is now testing the Daily 20ma at the 1.2415 level.
• Look for further USD weakness and CABLE to power up and USDCAD to break through this level.

AUDUSD
• Again with USD weakness AUD has powered up to the Daily 20ma and WR1 at 0.6530 level.
• Look for break and look to buy so you are protected behind the 60min 20ma.

USDCHF
• Big moves came into play on the CHFs on Friday.
• Looks weak again but wont be trading unless the 60min 20ma comes into play so I can protect any short play.



GBPCHF
• Will get pulled around with GBP powering up and USDCHF looking weak.
• Look fort break back above the 60min 50ma at 1.6800 for GBP strength and a long play.
• Or wait for USDCHF to break lower and see break back below the 4he 50ma around the 1.6670 level.

Ok so USD looks weak…If USDJPY pushes lower and GBPUSD powers up then GBPJPY will get pulled around and lack momentum.

Lets be patient and wait for confirmation of direction this morning.

Dan

 

[danarm]

New York Open - Monday 23rd February

Good afternoon all.

Nothing doing this morning on my side with USDJPY looking pretty weak first thing. Had it been on the right side of the averages then I’d be going long on GBPJPY and EURJPY but that was not the case until late on so the moves on the latter two were not what I’d consider to be low-risk trades.

No U.S news to stimulate the market this PM looks like we’ll either have to get our bearing from what has already happened today.

GBPUSD-
• Not moved this morning as expected and some pullback or consolidation required.
• Can’t go long or short from here
• 4hr 20 has crossed up through 50 so long term bull run is intact
• Will leave this one on the bench for this session but a break down of 14600 could prompt a little reversal for 50pips or so

EURUSD-
• Looking weak and any move below 12800 might well see this lower
• 60m 20ema may hold price for a while so best to err on the side of caution with USDCHF looking held below weekly pivot at 11650
• Not really looking for anything here unless break of 12800

EURGBP-
• Break of support at 0.8800 this morning coupled with EURO weakness and GBP strength see this now looking likely to continue downward trend
• Way oversold now and need to wait for retracement back upto 60m 20ema
• Better opportunities elsewhere

USDJPY-
• Big run is on again with Friday’s highs being taken out
• Possible double top on 15m chart so need to wait for retracement back to 94.00 to see what happens

GBPJPY-
• big run and reversal play fancied.
• Look for break down through 138.00 targeting 15m 20 at 13750 then 60m 20ema at 13550.

EURJPY-
• Looking for break south of 121.00

USDCHF-
• Stuck below weekly pivot and not overly appealing at the moment.

EURCHF-
• Flat and boring
• Leaving it alone today

VERDICT…….

EURUSD below 12800. GBPJPY below 13800, EURJPY below 12100

 

[c_c405]

snapped up a few pips here

New York Open - Monday 23rd February

Good afternoon all.

Nothing doing this morning on my side with USDJPY looking pretty weak first thing. Had it been on the right side of the averages then I’d be going long on GBPJPY and EURJPY but that was not the case until late on so the moves on the latter two were not what I’d consider to be low-risk trades.

No U.S news to stimulate the market this PM looks like we’ll either have to get our bearing from what has already happened today.

GBPUSD-
• Not moved this morning as expected and some pullback or consolidation required.
• Can’t go long or short from here
• 4hr 20 has crossed up through 50 so long term bull run is intact
• Will leave this one on the bench for this session but a break down of 14600 could prompt a little reversal for 50pips or so

EURUSD-
• Looking weak and any move below 12800 might well see this lower
• 60m 20ema may hold price for a while so best to err on the side of caution with USDCHF looking held below weekly pivot at 11650
• Not really looking for anything here unless break of 12800

EURGBP-
• Break of support at 0.8800 this morning coupled with EURO weakness and GBP strength see this now looking likely to continue downward trend
• Way oversold now and need to wait for retracement back upto 60m 20ema
• Better opportunities elsewhere

USDJPY-
• Big run is on again with Friday’s highs being taken out
• Possible double top on 15m chart so need to wait for retracement back to 94.00 to see what happens

GBPJPY-
• big run and reversal play fancied.
• Look for break down through 138.00 targeting 15m 20 at 13750 then 60m 20ema at 13550.

EURJPY-
• Looking for break south of 121.00

USDCHF-
• Stuck below weekly pivot and not overly appealing at the moment.

EURCHF-
• Flat and boring
• Leaving it alone today

VERDICT…….

EURUSD below 12800. GBPJPY below 13800, EURJPY below 12100

Took some trades on these pairs
topping out at 13K
cheers