Thanks for that Henry, Its good to find out what people can actually achieve via day trading. Would anyone else like to share their stats? (avg win:loss, avg risk:reward, avg daily pips).
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Thanks for that Henry, Its good to find out what people can actually achieve via day trading. Would anyone else like to share their stats? (avg win:loss, avg risk:reward, avg daily pips).
danarm
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Well unlike Usain Bolt at the 100metres today was more like a marathonin a diving suit in comparison. Painfully slow and despite better datathe green shooters have hit the wall and are suffering from a minorstitch. I still say that this is a blip and profit taking relatedhowever the signal that the taps are being switched off is definitelynot helping matters. I had to chuckle to myself at the Bloomberg surveyfrom just last week that had investors feeling more bullish on equitiesthan they had done the last time the market collapsed in 2007. Flow wasthe same as the past few sessions ie real money selling (but in smallervolume) and retail buying. Although I believe we will see buyingeventually into this weakness one thing I would say is that if this doesturn into a proper, "squeaky bum time" sell off EM technically speakingis in a pretty good place. As discussed previously bonds are in saferhands than before, unlike the HG world where we have seen recordissuance. The reason I mention this is that despite the record issuanceof HG debt there are less dealers than there used to be plus limits areat best unchanged to what they were a year or 2 ago. My point being, ifwe see some decent selling of HG new issues, dealers (most of whom havemade budget for the year) will be less inclined to put their ars*s onthe line and buy paper. The result will be a repeat of what we sawlast year, ie a liquidity driven sell off not necessarily related tofundamentals. If HG sells off it will have a knock on effect on EMwhich initially in my view will outperform. This evening for the firsttime in a while I'll be watching channel 505 to get a sense for where weopen tomorrow, a continuation of this will at least make the day becomemore like the 10,000 metres than a marathon!
Rollingstone
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Hey Dan
It's good to have you back, hope you had a lovely holiday.
RS
It's good to have you back, hope you had a lovely holiday.
RS
danarm
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Hi
Reuben did u get on that USDCAD from last week?
If so stay with it as long as it remains above the WP.
D
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henkvanhirtum
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danarm
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Good morning
Weak US PPI figure out yesterday has kept the stock market alive for the time being.
USDX is boxed between the WP and DP. Any break below WP at 78.79 will confirm further USD weakness. From this range I would stay away from buying USDX until we see a solid move back above MP at 79.15. Need confirmation of breaks this am for direction in USD.
CABLE
• A solid retracement from 1.6260 back to 1.6550.
• 4hr chart suggests if this 1.6500 region can hold the 4hr Golden Cross will come into play for a potential long play back up to test the 1.6800 region.
• The 60min chart suggests CABLE could be a little beast this am, as the range is 1.6507 to 1.6588 but it is hard to sell on the break into the DP and MP on the downside.
• Therefore I will only look to sell CABLE today either at the highs of yesterday, with a very tight risk play or wait for a 123 back down through the MP at 1.6475.
• Only buy option I have (at this level) is a very tight play at 1.6510/15 region with a very tight risk play below DP, for a bounce back up to yesterday’s highs.
EURUSD
• 4 Hour chart suggests lower highs and lower lows for a downward trend.
• Only support ahead is the MP and 60min 50ma.
• For short plays I would like to see a break of the MP for a 123 south and a Golden Cross of the 60min MA´s.
• On the upside I won’t be looking for any long plays until we see a 123 off the WP at 1.4192 for confirmation of support.
USDCAD
• It seems all charts are boxed between the MP and WP suggesting a boxed market with difficult trends to read.
• If CABLE tests the low side we would expect USDCAD to rally but I can’t look at any long plays until we break back above the MP or at least have a 123 above the DP and 60min 20ma.
• On the downside I have the WP at 1.0956 which will offer solid support.
• Potentially I could play the break to the WP from 1.1000 down to 56 but again a very risky trade.
Verdict
• See both ways this am so risk is high.
Weak US PPI figure out yesterday has kept the stock market alive for the time being.
USDX is boxed between the WP and DP. Any break below WP at 78.79 will confirm further USD weakness. From this range I would stay away from buying USDX until we see a solid move back above MP at 79.15. Need confirmation of breaks this am for direction in USD.
CABLE
• A solid retracement from 1.6260 back to 1.6550.
• 4hr chart suggests if this 1.6500 region can hold the 4hr Golden Cross will come into play for a potential long play back up to test the 1.6800 region.
• The 60min chart suggests CABLE could be a little beast this am, as the range is 1.6507 to 1.6588 but it is hard to sell on the break into the DP and MP on the downside.
• Therefore I will only look to sell CABLE today either at the highs of yesterday, with a very tight risk play or wait for a 123 back down through the MP at 1.6475.
• Only buy option I have (at this level) is a very tight play at 1.6510/15 region with a very tight risk play below DP, for a bounce back up to yesterday’s highs.
EURUSD
• 4 Hour chart suggests lower highs and lower lows for a downward trend.
• Only support ahead is the MP and 60min 50ma.
• For short plays I would like to see a break of the MP for a 123 south and a Golden Cross of the 60min MA´s.
• On the upside I won’t be looking for any long plays until we see a 123 off the WP at 1.4192 for confirmation of support.
USDCAD
• It seems all charts are boxed between the MP and WP suggesting a boxed market with difficult trends to read.
• If CABLE tests the low side we would expect USDCAD to rally but I can’t look at any long plays until we break back above the MP or at least have a 123 above the DP and 60min 20ma.
• On the downside I have the WP at 1.0956 which will offer solid support.
• Potentially I could play the break to the WP from 1.1000 down to 56 but again a very risky trade.
Verdict
• See both ways this am so risk is high.
Cable:
A lot of detail could be placed here to support the following projection for next week (as always in forex, speculative in nature and based on many observations - resulting in a thumping headache after trying to make sense of too many fundamentals and technicals, economic reports, candle formation patterns in too many timeframes...
; and then giving up and going back to basic interpretation of basic charts... :smart, but if we stick with the pivots, I think that once Cable drops below the MP, we could see a drop that may even reach a fib I have at approximately 1.6092. I draw fibs on 4hr charts for mid-term bias. I will be looking for an initial fight against this drop back up to a 61.8 fib at approximately 1.6567. On a 4hr, we have a nice H&S forming, with a neckline running the 1.6180 region. Who knows, come next weekend, we could be in the 1.6092 region, or even lower if recent momentum and herd panic are anything to go by . The Nationwide HPI should be interesting, and as the week's news unfurls, fortune may be in our favour for the aforementioned expectation.
It is interesting to look at the lower resistance region on the USINDX/USDCHF 4hr charts.
GBPJPY/EURJPY:
Triple bottoms abound. If market makers abstain from messing around, I expect both of these to have pull downs from Friday's close - corresponding to an initial move up for Cable, and then long for both. GBPJPY had a silver cross on the 4hr on the 14th (4hr20 crossing the D20) and then hit the triple bottom formation we now see. I expect another cross to occur in the next few days. A lot of good traders talk of hitting the 153 region again this week (I have a fib at 153.44, but under a manual trendline, so am cautious of reaching exactly this figure), as the chart formation evolves, before a move up to the 170 region.
Make what you will of the above, and I state now that I am a newbie trying to move away from small timeframe trading: in order to plan for entries and exits on longer timeframes.
Dan/Zak, how is your physical instructor treating you? Gone on any nine milers yet?
A lot of detail could be placed here to support the following projection for next week (as always in forex, speculative in nature and based on many observations - resulting in a thumping headache after trying to make sense of too many fundamentals and technicals, economic reports, candle formation patterns in too many timeframes...
; and then giving up and going back to basic interpretation of basic charts... :smart, but if we stick with the pivots, I think that once Cable drops below the MP, we could see a drop that may even reach a fib I have at approximately 1.6092. I draw fibs on 4hr charts for mid-term bias. I will be looking for an initial fight against this drop back up to a 61.8 fib at approximately 1.6567. On a 4hr, we have a nice H&S forming, with a neckline running the 1.6180 region. Who knows, come next weekend, we could be in the 1.6092 region, or even lower if recent momentum and herd panic are anything to go by . The Nationwide HPI should be interesting, and as the week's news unfurls, fortune may be in our favour for the aforementioned expectation.It is interesting to look at the lower resistance region on the USINDX/USDCHF 4hr charts.
GBPJPY/EURJPY:
Triple bottoms abound. If market makers abstain from messing around, I expect both of these to have pull downs from Friday's close - corresponding to an initial move up for Cable, and then long for both. GBPJPY had a silver cross on the 4hr on the 14th (4hr20 crossing the D20) and then hit the triple bottom formation we now see. I expect another cross to occur in the next few days. A lot of good traders talk of hitting the 153 region again this week (I have a fib at 153.44, but under a manual trendline, so am cautious of reaching exactly this figure), as the chart formation evolves, before a move up to the 170 region.
Make what you will of the above, and I state now that I am a newbie trying to move away from small timeframe trading: in order to plan for entries and exits on longer timeframes.
Dan/Zak, how is your physical instructor treating you? Gone on any nine milers yet?
Just having a look at this thread, and thought I would reread my last reply. Opps, I apologize, I meant to state 1.6480 region for neckline in Cable...
Interesting to see that at time of writing this, Cable is now dancing on a 38.2 fib at 1.6407... still looks to be inside what could be termed the neckline range on a 4hr, so not tempted to short just yet, but we have now busted through the MP. Hope we see a little retrace back up, before another fall down.
GBPJPY - hmm, very small range so far - possible because of weekly opening, and the holidays, but nonetheless, difficult to decide upon.
Interesting to see that at time of writing this, Cable is now dancing on a 38.2 fib at 1.6407... still looks to be inside what could be termed the neckline range on a 4hr, so not tempted to short just yet, but we have now busted through the MP. Hope we see a little retrace back up, before another fall down.
GBPJPY - hmm, very small range so far - possible because of weekly opening, and the holidays, but nonetheless, difficult to decide upon.
Thanks Gamma; yeah, I know, and I'm trying to adjust myself accordingly. Would not have been brave enough to have entered at the level you mention... Friday afternoon etcetera. MM or not, not too comfortable with leaving positions open over the weekend. Almost went short around the 1.6500 level today, but thought the safer option was to wait for a clear break of the MP, a pull back, before a move lower. Still like using a 1,2,3 method.
gamma
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I cannnot blame you for being cautious
its a good strategy
come on the gb/usd thread would appreciate your input.
Cautious... ha, the more I read the threads with those senior traders that know what they are talking about, the more I fear to tread the pip plank this week. Scaring me to bloody death, and hence not looking to get in early on any trades.
Yes, this thread is a little quite at the moment, but think it is sunshine related...
Yes, this thread is a little quite at the moment, but think it is sunshine related...
bangkokgee
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sun-light
great to see you have seen the light and using 4hour to see the big picture,look at the daily too to confirm the trend,dont be scard to enter trades,use 2% on your trade,follow your mm,.no emotion
Cautious... ha, the more I read the threads with those senior traders that know what they are talking about, the more I fear to tread the pip plank this week. Scaring me to bloody death, and hence not looking to get in early on any trades.
Yes, this thread is a little quite at the moment, but think it is sunshine related...
great to see you have seen the light and using 4hour to see the big picture,look at the daily too to confirm the trend,dont be scard to enter trades,use 2% on your trade,follow your mm,.no emotion
gamma
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Cautious... ha, the more I read the threads with those senior traders that know what they are talking about, the more I fear to tread the pip plank this week. Scaring me to bloody death, and hence not looking to get in early on any trades.
Yes, this thread is a little quite at the moment, but think it is sunshine related...
senior traders
I'm sorry that just makes me laugh,
You are probably more senior in your analysis than any Legendary trader let alone senior
Hi guys and girls,
Just popped to say hello. I hope you're all well and had a good week and I'm glad to see most of you in triple numbers for the week.
Sterling is hard to trade at these levels but it is still in a strong down trend against the USD and JPY. It is currently boxed in. Look to remain short until and unless the 60 minute and 4hr 20 crosses.
Have a good day and speak to you soon.
Regards,
Hemal
Just popped to say hello. I hope you're all well and had a good week and I'm glad to see most of you in triple numbers for the week.
Sterling is hard to trade at these levels but it is still in a strong down trend against the USD and JPY. It is currently boxed in. Look to remain short until and unless the 60 minute and 4hr 20 crosses.
Have a good day and speak to you soon.
Regards,
Hemal
danarm
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Good morning
9.30am - Revised GDP for GBP Expect -0.8%
Better than expected Prelim GDP for States yesterday. Indices remain supported (for now) so USD still remains under pressure.
USD X
• Struggled to remain in its new range above the WP and is now back down close to Mondays lows around the 78.00 level.
• USD X not helping us too much to be honest and after yesterdays dramatic fall we should be wary of buying USD for the immediate term.
CABLE
• Large retracement off yesterdays lows at 1.6150
• Boxed between the 60min 20ma and 4hr 20ma
• Looking for break of either the high at 1.6303, or the DP (61.8 Fib) at 1.6245.
EURUSD
• As mentioned on the videos over the last week there is no need to short this fella.
• EUR is bid and any sign of a weak USD and EURUSD rallies.
• Would like to see a pullback to 1.4300 for a potential long play.
GBPJPY
• Would like to see USDJPY remain below its DP but if CABLE breaks its DP watch GBPJPY break lower as well.
• Will look to short through the DP (61.8 Fib) to test yesterdays lows.
Have fun
Dan
9.30am - Revised GDP for GBP Expect -0.8%
Better than expected Prelim GDP for States yesterday. Indices remain supported (for now) so USD still remains under pressure.
USD X
• Struggled to remain in its new range above the WP and is now back down close to Mondays lows around the 78.00 level.
• USD X not helping us too much to be honest and after yesterdays dramatic fall we should be wary of buying USD for the immediate term.
CABLE
• Large retracement off yesterdays lows at 1.6150
• Boxed between the 60min 20ma and 4hr 20ma
• Looking for break of either the high at 1.6303, or the DP (61.8 Fib) at 1.6245.
EURUSD
• As mentioned on the videos over the last week there is no need to short this fella.
• EUR is bid and any sign of a weak USD and EURUSD rallies.
• Would like to see a pullback to 1.4300 for a potential long play.
GBPJPY
• Would like to see USDJPY remain below its DP but if CABLE breaks its DP watch GBPJPY break lower as well.
• Will look to short through the DP (61.8 Fib) to test yesterdays lows.
Have fun
Dan
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