It's All About The Pips...

[danarm]

Good morning all

Dow is being extremely stubborn below 9,000. Will it rally from here? Who knows…Previous high at 9,111 so again I will be looking for a cheeky short ahead of this previous high incase we see a convincing double top on the 4 hr chart.

USD X had a good run yesterday making our EURUSD & USDCAD position work out very well. Look for USDX to hold support above its DP at 79.30 region. The 15min 50ma is just ahead and can be a stubborn MA to get passed. We really need to see a break of 79.55 for USD to have another good move higher.

CABLE

• We spoke at length about the MP yesterday and this is our major support we need to sidestep.
• Probably best we wait for a break here at 1.6335 for any short plays.
• We can always add on a 123 below if the CCI´s are too oversold at point of entry.
• We also need to be aware of any double bottom on the MP on 4hr chart. As soon as this trend reversal finishes on the 4hr chart we will have our neckline incase USD decides to play games with us and weaken again.
• Wont be looking at any long plays unless it gathers momentum back above the WP at 1.6440 region.

USDCAD

• Building nicely and still long with stop below 4hr 20ma.
• WP is offering 1st major resistance at 1.0940 and would like to see a break out here for a real move higher.
• Let’s play the break but make sure the CCI´s aren’t too overbought at point of entry.
• The WP break would then clear the 4hr 50ma suggesting further USD strength across the board.
• Any move back below the 60min 50ma would suggest USD is weak again.


EURGBP

• Looks good with a potential golden cross looming on the 15min chart.
• At present we have a higher high and need this to change with a lower high and lower low to suggest a change in direction.
• 0.8560 will be the key area of support so lets wait for a 123 for any south play.


Verdict
• As it stands it’s a patient morning.
• Can’t touch CABLE, maybe EURUSD on the 123 back below the MP 1.4040 region.
• I like USDCAD through the WP but other than that patience for now.

 

[danarm]

Hi

Just got back in after our powercut...

D

 

[ekanters]

The worst has yet to come in this economic crisis. Expectations are that the deep will be reached somewhere in 2010 but by then they will probebly say 2011. So why are the stock markets going up when Banks fail to give more credit. Well maybe because they need it to buy stocks and make profits over the back of the tax payer.

So consumer confidence wil take another big hit in the months to come and unemployement will start rising again. The better than expected housing numbers in the US were all over the news but they forgot to mention that prices declined 13000 dollar on average.

Oil prices took a hit because of low demand and is another indication the economy is still sick. So the CFTC report was not far of the truth where it said the prices of oil went up because of speculators and not because of demand.

Expect volatility to increase soon again and that is what we like no matter what is going on in the economy.

But like always watch your pocket money and don't spend it you will be needing it soon enough.

Erik

Forever Bear

 

[henkvanhirtum]

Unemployment claims are worse than expected and indices are powering up???

 

[bangkokgee]

pump and dump

hi henk thats all it is nothing more nothing less.

 

[jel31]

cable-less day

Julie & Fran- I hope you both did well with the cable BO north this morning?

Hi Paul

Nah, didn't like the look of it first thing. More's the pity but then "them's my rules" so gotta stick to them. Only trade for me today was a little jump on the back of the usdjpy upward surge through resistance this avo.

You had a good day?

See you tomorrow

 

[danarm]

The express train to spread zero marches on at a scary pace. Marketcontinues to grind tighter on an almost daily basis and the percy panicregarding Chinese stocks is but a distant memory already. Liquiditycontinues to prevail over everything and the market really is a rewindback to 2006, ie if it has yield ship it in and surf the carry wave.One thing we are seeing more and more now is that the basis in places isgoing the other way ie from massively negative to positive. Cash bondslike Soaf, Abu Dhabi, new Gaz Euro are trading at or through the CDS andlook very expensive or the CDS is very cheap. If we assume the CDS ischeap it means that any CDS longs will suffer even more pain over thecoming weeks. Its always difficult to back against a mad exuberant market but a wordof caution. Here's something that was doing the rounds earlier in theday. "1929-1930 equity rally lasted 147 days +46%. The rally off theMarch 6th low this year has been 145 days and we're up 46%." I am surea coincidence but I wonder how the market felt back then on day 145?Amazingly its yet another month end tomorrow, before we know it Summerwill be gone and the EM pipeline will be gushing. More of the sametomorrow!

 

[yellowlion]

Nice...

"1929-1930 equity rally lasted 147 days +46%. The rally off the March 6th low this year has been 145 days and we're up 46%."

Nice Danarm.

YL

 

[danarm]

Good morning

Nationwide HPI gave the market a lot of confidence yesterday and GBP seems to be back on the cards again after a few days of selling.

We are not going to fight the Wall St drive and appreciate its strength and remain with the trend. With this in mind the only option is for us to remain bearish for the USD, as we have been for many weeks.

We have had 2 or 3 days of hope for the USD but that was extremely short lived as you have seen.

British Airways are posting 2nd Qtr results today and they are not expected to be great so keep an eye on that FTSE.

USD Index looks very weak again so lets stay with the trend.


CABLE
• After a solid break of the Head & Shoulder neckline, GBP has found its needed strength again.
• The previous right shoulder resistance is just ahead now at 1.6555 (WR1) and the temptation is to look for a short here with a stop above.
• This however is against the trend so be aware it’s a risky trade and GBP has been the strongest currency out there over the last 24 hours.
• The safest play for us would be to wait for the pullback and use the 4hr trigger for the next move higher.
• Let’s look for a pullback towards the 1.6460 region and buy off support.

 

[Stewenson133]

cable, hard to break 1.66

 

[PaulKing]

FX500Club Afternoon Currency Desk Fri 31Jul09

Hi Dan

I received an e-mail this morning @11:10 linking to your pm video. Amongst your musings you suggested a long for cable off the 4 hour 20sma (1.6640area).

I looked at my chart, "can't see it that low" I thought to myself. "Its in an up-trend!"

Anyway the news reaction @1:30 sent it down and a nice 15m bullish outside candle put me in @ 1.6506 with about a 40 pip stop, quite big, but the actual draw down was only 10.

Taken profit off steadily @ +20, +50, +100...

I wanted to post this as a counter to some of the negative posts on this thread earlier in the week

Have a great weekend every one
best
Paul

 

[sc0rpian]

Hi Dan

I received an e-mail this morning @11:10 linking to your pm video. Amongst your musings you suggested a long for cable off the 4 hour 20sma (1.6640area).

I looked at my chart, "can't see it that low" I thought to myself. "Its in an up-trend!"

Anyway the news reaction @1:30 sent it down and a nice 15m bullish outside candle put me in @ 1.6506 with about a 40 pip stop, quite big, but the actual draw down was only 10.

Taken profit off steadily @ +20, +50, +100...

I wanted to post this as a counter to some of the negative posts on this thread earlier in the week

Have a great weekend every one
best
Paul

Theres only been one negative poster and that's me. Just come back from a ban. Where did you get this email from?

DOW is still on the up I see.

 

[indiana]

Theres only been one negative poster and that's me. Just come back from a ban. Where did you get this email from?

DOW is still on the up I see.

Hi,

This system is the best and now you have crawled out from beneath your rock you will see that no matter what you say people on this forum simply will not take any of your negative thoughts and will carry on regardless of your ramblings so please go back beneath your rock from whence you came and leave Dan,Zak & James and everybody else alone
I was once a member if the fx500 club and due to financial circumstances had to leave but i have carried on with this system and this month i have made over 2500 pips and that's with Zak giving out free templates and really bending over backwards

Anyway i am now tired of typing a response to you as you do not deserve a response but i have sat quietly and i need to defend the MIGHTY FX500 CLUB AND DAN'S THREAD

Paul Balfe

 

[allgood]

Hi,

This system is the best and now you have crawled out from beneath your rock you will see that no matter what you say people on this forum simply will not take any of your negative thoughts and will carry on regardless of your ramblings so please go back beneath your rock from whence you came and leave Dan,Zak & James and everybody else alone
I was once a member if the fx500 club and due to financial circumstances had to leave but i have carried on with this system and this month i have made over 2500 pips and that's with Zak giving out free templates and really bending over backwards

Anyway i am now tired of typing a response to you as you do not deserve a response but i have sat quietly and i need to defend the MIGHTY FX500 CLUB AND DAN'S THREAD

Paul Balfe

Well said!!!!!

 

[indiana]

Hi Dan

I received an e-mail this morning @11:10 linking to your pm video. Amongst your musings you suggested a long for cable off the 4 hour 20sma (1.6640area).

I looked at my chart, "can't see it that low" I thought to myself. "Its in an up-trend!"

Anyway the news reaction @1:30 sent it down and a nice 15m bullish outside candle put me in @ 1.6506 with about a 40 pip stop, quite big, but the actual draw down was only 10.

Taken profit off steadily @ +20, +50, +100...

I wanted to post this as a counter to some of the negative posts on this thread earlier in the week

Have a great weekend every one
best
Paul

Hi Paul,

I didn't get the e mail but read the notes here this morning and i too watched that and got over 150 pips but closed out as it was going toooo high too quick but very happy with my 150 pips
Thanks Guys and have a great weekend and hers to a bumper August

Paul B

 

[sc0rpian]

On Wednesday, when the Chinese market was off 7% at one point, the contagion could easily have spread, but the market shrugged it off. It looks like the shorts are crying uncle and covering even though it seems improbable the market can stay up day after day. I still feel we're a bit over our skis and that a correction is overdue, but I am loving the upside even though the volume stinks.:clap:

 

[danarm]

Goodbye July and much like the rest of this month the grabathoncontinues. As I mentioned earlier this week CDS looked cheap to cashbut today the shorts capitulated and threw the towel in helping the CDSoutperform the cash by anywhere between 5 and 20bp in sovs and quasis.Cash was mixed today with the star performer being Gazprom (5-15better). Flow is still constructive with real money and retailcontinuing to add risk. People with memories should cast their mindback to March and how bearish everyone was back then. If you fastforward 4 months post one of the biggest rallies in history itsinteresting how bullish every one has become. I am feeling a tadsceptical here, I am seeing and hearing a lot of ex bears who have nowturned mega bullish post a 50% rally, is this surprising no, is thissound investment decision making you decide! August is upon us, theeasy call is that this crazy exuberance continues along with more rain,I hope the so called experts are wrong because I am calling for lots ofsunshine and volatility just to be different. Enjoy the sunny weekend!!

 

[ekanters]

So most of the investors are still bullish and one of the biggest bears I know and sometimes out performs me on that level is now adjusting its outlook to the upside becausee of so called cycles.

The word is that the US economy only shrunk with 1% compared with a lot more in previous days but again they forget to mention at what cost. But what is a trillion dollars these days. One more or less does not make a difference.

One thing is for sure and that is when you know the economy is a long way from getting healthy again that does not mean it brings you to wise investments. The market can go the wrong way much longer then your wallet can afford.

I have written in the past that in the near future (3-5 years) basic things will get more important and that does not include a swimming pool. Nope food and energy is what its all about. Not long a go prices of food, energy and all other commodities went through the roof and because of good harvests in 2008 it reversed back. But the time will come again that we shoot the other way. People like to forget and go back in to their fantasy world. Well the climate is changing rapidly and this could very well be disastrous for future harvests and also the need for more energy. Don't forget that demand will keep rising because of the fast growing countries like India, China and other emerging countries.


Hey someone has to keep the Bear alive.

Erik

 

[raulin]

Watching u/j closely , not only for jpy pairs direction but looking for equities direction. U/J stalled even before 97.20, before 96.15 even and stalled at wr1 pivot at 95.68. If you view JPY as number one risk aversion currency as I do , you should be selling JPY against everything, in risk appetite mode . You are not , not against USD/JPY and not against CAD/JPY

 

[henkvanhirtum]

Regarding usd/jpy, check this seasonality pdf.