IS this Karen Supertrader story legit?

[fxmade2trade]

Another lost .. very lost FX trader.. can't make any money trading, and you won't make any $ trying to scam the more intelligent Options traders.

Instant Karma

happy pip hunting

First off let me say FX traders are just as intelligent as option traders you sound very ignorant with that statement, and offensive to the many FX traders on this site. I do both however and am very successful! So if the Karma I have is instant keep it coming!MY TRADES ARE UP!
Why don't you do me a favor you Exceptional trader, and make five calls for me and all the other peons of the FX world.

 

[ACstudio]

First off let me say FX traders are just as intelligent as option traders you sound very ignorant with that statement, and offensive to the many FX traders on this site. I do both however and am very successful! So if the Karma I have is instant keep it coming!MY TRADES ARE UP!
Why don't you do me a favor you Exceptional trader, and make five calls for me and all the other peons of the FX world.

Ohoh me first....
1. SPY NOV14 195 calls will expire worthless.
2. UNG NOV14 23 calls will expire worthless
3. TLT NOV14 128 calls will expire worthless
4. EWZ NOV14 52 calls will expire worthless.
5. USO NOV14 34 calls will expire worthless.

And here is a freebee
6. There is a 16% chance that one of those will be wrong enough to roll or sell puts against to reduce risk or extend duration... And at least 4 of those will be manageable for 50% max profit before expiration.

PS I don't think it's really an intelligence thing.... just different styles. But this was a discussion about an options trader an had nothing to do with the blog posted that I could tell in the 5 seconds I looked at it.

 

[lloydbee]

Instead if hi-jacking this thread with useless FX talk and ego verifications why don't we get it back to what it is here for... Talk of Karen.

Nice one AC I'll do my list before opening )

 

[fxmade2trade]

Ohoh me first....
1. SPY NOV14 195 calls will expire worthless.
2. UNG NOV14 23 calls will expire worthless
3. TLT NOV14 128 calls will expire worthless
4. EWZ NOV14 52 calls will expire worthless.
5. USO NOV14 34 calls will expire worthless.

And here is a freebee
6. There is a 16% chance that one of those will be wrong enough to roll or sell puts against to reduce risk or extend duration... And at least 4 of those will be manageable for 50% max profit before expiration.

PS I don't think it's really an intelligence thing.... just different styles. But this was a discussion about an options trader an had nothing to do with the blog posted that I could tell in the 5 seconds I looked at it.

No the blog was about Traders and gold options, and how CB, FED etc manipulate the market or are just lucky ie: Karen
Personally I see your calls are kinda weak, your UNG position for example: the bid is 5 cents the ask price is 22 cents, if you have to immediately cover the position for any reason, you will take a massive hit. And there is no volume, you will get burned if you have to cover that, your risk to gain ratio is 5:1 you have no real clue on the direction of it... Your calls are like saying maybe gold wont be at 1600 by November .
P.S He did speak on intellect But I agree back on topic...

 

[ACstudio]

No the blog was about Traders and gold options, and how CB, FED etc manipulate the market or are just lucky ie: Karen
Personally I see your calls are kinda weak, your UNG position for example: the bid is 5 cents the ask price is 22 cents, if you have to immediately cover the position for any reason, you will take a massive hit. And there is no volume, you will get burned if you have to cover that, your risk to gain ratio is 5:1 you have no real clue on the direction of it... Your calls are like saying maybe gold wont be at 1600 by November .
P.S He did speak on intellect But I agree back on topic...

a: The mid price is .10 and last was .10 I would probably give up 1-2 cents getting filled.
b: why would I want to cover it immediately, selling options puts time on your side. I don't cover losers...I manage winners and risk.
c: Open interest is over 700...should be no problem getting a 1 lot filled. And again I don't cover losers...I reduce deltas...and if it was being tested there would be tons of volume and open interest and tighter market.
d: I don't play directionally...I play probabilities. I don't care which way it goes and I'll be right 84% or more of the time. This is the magic of options that is lost on many.

These are all 1 standard deviation picks that are the bread and butter of option traders and are in highly liquid ETF's.

Anytime you are risking 5 to make 1 in options your probability of profit is going to be wrapped around 80%. Anytime you risk 1 to make 5 your probability of profit will be the inverse...20%. Again this is the bread and butter of options traders. Example...A vertical credit spread out of the money with the short strike at about 30 deltas that is 1$ wide you will be risking about .70 to make .30 and be profitable over 70% of the time in derivatives with Implied Volatility ranking at or above 50%. If you take profits at 50% max profit you increase your probabilities to around 85% and can move on to the next trade.

I can manage my risk at entry any number of ways by off setting risk or capital requirements with offsetting positions...for example....a vertical spread, iron condor, strangle, etc.

Saying gold would be below 1600 by NOV expiration is not a relevant comparison as that would be like 9 standard deviations and there is NO market there.
But I can tell you that a 1 standard deviation in gold futures (/GC) by NOV would be 1275....and that is actionable information that can make you money consistently.

If you were going to set parameters for your little challenge you should have set them forth from the getgo.

I couldn't give a rat about direction, fundamentals, price action, technicals, support levels, magic 8 balls, reading of entrails, abandoned dojis, hanging babies, famous guru picks, etc..... unless something looks beat down or over extended I might look twice. All I care about is volatility, liquidity, duration, probabilities...you know...option stuff.

You or anyone else can make any pick you want and if it fits my criteria I'll fade it with an option strategy...And manage winners early 80% of the time and neutralize losers or roll them until they are winners.

woooo I'm wild.

Probability based option trading is not about being right. It's about getting paid....even when your not right.

 

[lloydbee]

make five calls for me and all the other peons of the FX world.

I'll be happy to weigh in with my 5...
SELL VERTICAL SPX OCT4 1745/1740 PUT
SELL VERTICAL SPX OCT5 1695/1690 PUT
SELL VERTICAL SPX NOV2 1645/1640 PUT
SELL VERTICAL SPX NOV 1600/1595 PUT
SELL VERTICAL NFLX OCT4 325/320 PUT
and just to add an extra couple for good measure...
SELL VERTICAL AA OCT4 14/13 PUT
BUY BUTTERFLY AA DEC 13/15/17 CAL

 

[BurtsDog]

I don't think her story is hearsay, simply because it is her broker who is interviewing her and he knows the detail of her performance and wouldn't ruin his reputation by falsifying the content of the 3 interviews.

TastyTrade is not Karen's broker. TastyTrade is not even a broker. TT only provides a trading GUI called 'Dough' that connects to Ameritrade and Karen does not use Dough. So there is no way TT knows Karen's track record unless she gave them audited returns. The whole thing sounds fishy to me. Maybe she is that 1 in a million. It's possible but I remain skeptical if she is not going to show us all proof.

 

[ACstudio]

TastyTrade is not Karen's broker. TastyTrade is not even a broker. TT only provides a trading GUI called 'Dough' that connects to Ameritrade and Karen does not use Dough. So there is no way TT knows Karen's track record unless she gave them audited returns. The whole thing sounds fishy to me. Maybe she is that 1 in a million. It's possible but I remain skeptical if she is not going to show us all proof.

Ye I think most of know her brokerage is TDA and she uses the TOS platform. Her affiliation with Tasty is that she was a "Rising Star". Pretty sure she is legit...her office is about 70 miles from where I sit and her filings were posted a page or two back. I don't know if her numbers are public but I'll bet her charity numbers are.

If you just look at the strategy she plays you can see that ...ye it's probably done 20-30%+ a year for the last 5 years. But I'll bet they have had to scramble a bit to make delta adjustments in the last week or so.

 

[lloydbee]

The whole thing sounds fishy to me. Maybe she is that 1 in a million. It's possible but I remain skeptical if she is not going to show us all proof.

You clearly know very little if anything about probability trading, don't be such a sceptic there is money to be made from trading options. Not only is it possible what she does, but it's absolutely nothing special as well...

(*yawn* - bored of the 1 post wonder sceptics)

 

[ACstudio]

Thanks Lloyd. That clears up some things for me. I guess everyone just have their own ways. From what I know, people really don't share on things that has been working for them.

She has shared her strategy freely. She sells premium in big liquid products like SPX and a couple of others...whatever is big enough to handle her order flow. She starts a position out at around 55 days to expiration and manages the deltas and collects premium.

When volatility expands she ramps up positions and when it contracts she dials them back. That's about it.

 

[BurtsDog]

You clearly know very little if anything about probability trading, don't be such a sceptic there is money to be made from trading options. Not only is it possible what she does, but it's absolutely nothing special as well...

(*yawn* - bored of the 1 post wonder sceptics)

You have an 80% chance of making a little money and a 20% chance of destroying your trading account if you are caught overweight during a gappy runaway market. I think I understand just fine. However, I will take back what I said about Karen's results being 'fishy'. 20% to 30% per year is not that big of a deal for the risks she is taking, which are substantial.

 

[BurtsDog]

She has shared her strategy freely.

AC, are you selling options on futures to avoid daily gap threat or just options on equities?

 

[CostaKapo]

TastyTrade is not Karen's broker. TastyTrade is not even a broker. TT only provides a trading GUI called 'Dough' that connects to Ameritrade and Karen does not use Dough. So there is no way TT knows Karen's track record unless she gave them audited returns. The whole thing sounds fishy to me. Maybe she is that 1 in a million. It's possible but I remain skeptical if she is not going to show us all proof.

I posted her SEC Form D filing earlier in the post. Everything she does is pretty well documented. She does use ToS via TDA as a broker and everyone knows Tom Sosnoffs background with TOS.

She sells naked puts and calls on two indices OTM and manages the risk from there. No one position of hers is going to blow up her account as she accounts for multi SD moves. I think too many people get scared away from verticals and naked selling because it has been implanted in their mind that YOU WILL BLOW UP.

 

[CostaKapo]

a: The mid price is .10 and last was .10 I would probably give up 1-2 cents getting filled.
b: why would I want to cover it immediately, selling options puts time on your side. I don't cover losers...I manage winners and risk.
c: Open interest is over 700...should be no problem getting a 1 lot filled. And again I don't cover losers...I reduce deltas...and if it was being tested there would be tons of volume and open interest and tighter market.
d: I don't play directionally...I play probabilities. I don't care which way it goes and I'll be right 84% or more of the time. This is the magic of options that is lost on many.

These are all 1 standard deviation picks that are the bread and butter of option traders and are in highly liquid ETF's.

Anytime you are risking 5 to make 1 in options your probability of profit is going to be wrapped around 80%. Anytime you risk 1 to make 5 your probability of profit will be the inverse...20%. Again this is the bread and butter of options traders. Example...A vertical credit spread out of the money with the short strike at about 30 deltas that is 1$ wide you will be risking about .70 to make .30 and be profitable over 70% of the time in derivatives with Implied Volatility ranking at or above 50%. If you take profits at 50% max profit you increase your probabilities to around 85% and can move on to the next trade.

I can manage my risk at entry any number of ways by off setting risk or capital requirements with offsetting positions...for example....a vertical spread, iron condor, strangle, etc.

Saying gold would be below 1600 by NOV expiration is not a relevant comparison as that would be like 9 standard deviations and there is NO market there.
But I can tell you that a 1 standard deviation in gold futures (/GC) by NOV would be 1275....and that is actionable information that can make you money consistently.

If you were going to set parameters for your little challenge you should have set them forth from the getgo.

I couldn't give a rat about direction, fundamentals, price action, technicals, support levels, magic 8 balls, reading of entrails, abandoned dojis, hanging babies, famous guru picks, etc..... unless something looks beat down or over extended I might look twice. All I care about is volatility, liquidity, duration, probabilities...you know...option stuff.

You or anyone else can make any pick you want and if it fits my criteria I'll fade it with an option strategy...And manage winners early 80% of the time and neutralize losers or roll them until they are winners.

woooo I'm wild.

Probability based option trading is not about being right. It's about getting paid....even when your not right.

:smart: I am glad you joined this forum, I love reading your posts.

 

[ACstudio]

AC, are you selling options on futures to avoid daily gap threat or just options on equities?

I'm just little fish so no futures for me....but there are equities based off futures..ie USO that are tradeable.

I don't worry about gap risk as I manage risk at entry and keep it small. If I'm nervous or excited about a position then it's too big.

But I do get excited about the little things....like the short strikes I bought back for a nickle on a EBAY put butterfly that leaves one naked and in the money trading 1/1 with the stock...woo hooooo. wait lemme check...ye...wooohooo.

 

[BurtsDog]

I posted her SEC Form D filing earlier in the post. Everything she does is pretty well documented. She does use ToS via TDA as a broker and everyone knows Tom Sosnoffs background with TOS.

She sells naked puts and calls on two indices OTM and manages the risk from there. No one position of hers is going to blow up her account as she accounts for multi SD moves. I think too many people get scared away from verticals and naked selling because it has been implanted in their mind that YOU WILL BLOW UP.

Thanks. I guess I missed that post. I don't mess with options much anymore. Although a good methodology may never blow up there is always that specter lurking and I find it's too much trouble for the potential returns. IMO a quality, automated and back tested trend following system offers far more safety with potentially equal or better returns. A good trend trader's system can flip from buy to sell in the middle of the night and already be making a killing long before the options trader even begins his mad scramble to stem the bleeding.

 

[CostaKapo]

Thanks. I guess I missed that post. I don't mess with options much anymore. Although a good methodology may never blow up there is always that specter lurking and I find it's too much trouble for the potential returns. IMO a quality, automated and back tested trend following system offers far more safety with potentially equal or better returns. A good trend trader's system can flip from buy to sell in the middle of the night and already be making a killing long before the options trader even begins his mad scramble to stem the bleeding.

I take it you're an FX guy? E-Mini?

 

[ACstudio]

long before the options trader even begins his mad scramble to stem the bleeding.

I manage risk at entry with risk defined trades negating the need for stops or automation or scrambles. Those that do trade undefined risk can spread off risk in extended hours trading by buying or selling the underlying if there was a problem. Otherwise you can just do it with offsetting option positions.

Everybody has to find what they are comfortable with.

 

[BurtsDog]

I take it you're an FX guy? E-Mini?

I'm not quite there yet. Still coding. I intend to trade several futures markets and possibly FX later. Doubt I will ever trade equities again unless is it only intraday (due to gap risk).

 

[BurtsDog]

@;

I manage risk at entry with risk defined trades negating the need for stops or automation or scrambles. Those that do trade undefined risk can spread off risk in extended hours trading by buying or selling the underlying if there was a problem. Otherwise you can just do it with offsetting option positions.

Everybody has to find what they are comfortable with.

I wish you the best. I can't do what you do. IMO even risk defined trades only work in the long run if you gamble a small portion of your account at any given time, thereby handicapping your returns. Few people can maintain that kind of discipline over the years. Eventually the slog bores them and they overreach. Defined risk trades can wipe out an account in hours if you are overweight and THAT day comes when all equity markets gap hard and run away simultaneously. However, a good trend trader with a 24hr automated system could double his account that same day. Of course, there is a much steeper learning curve to coding your own trading system. It can take many months, even years before you might be ready to place your first reliable trade.