Is technical analysis the easy option?

Why were you trying to ramp up Shakespeare?

That is off topic for this thread, however, suffice to say so many people here draw faulty conclusions based on someone else's homework. Read post #82 on that thread, do some of your own homework and draw your conclusions.

Peter
 
I think some (basic, robust) TA is valid, but only as part of a broader cognisance of what's going on in the market (one pillar out of three, the others being fundamentals and what I've always liked to call 'context', which is a kind of catch all for positioning, sentiment, structural oddities etc).

The problem, going back to the OP, is that for the non institutional trader, TA is the one pillar that sees them on something better approaching (but not, it must be said, necessarily truly replicating) a level playing field with the large institutions.

Anyone can find a chart and conduct some half assed, lazy T.A. but to me thats like saying you're doing the same thing as David Beckham if you run around Hackney Marshes on a sunday wheezing and booting a football twenty feet up in the air shouting 'Ave It!!!' and on a wednesday evening once a week you turn up for 'training' which consists of an hour in a sports hall dribbling round some cones followed by a quick pint in the local talking 'tactics' with your mates. Doesn't mean you're doing the other things that he does - i.e. methodically researched, minutely planned training, and scientifically based, personally tailored health, rehabilitation and nutrition, it's just that the bit where you boot the football around is the accessible bit that anyone with a football, some mates and a couple of jumpers can replicate. The rest takes infrastructure and time / resources commitment, so most people don't engage in it.

That said even at the top level, where there are people in investment banks paid serious sums just to specialise in TA research etc, there is some proper rubbish written.

Someone recently sent me something talking about a 'Hindenburg Omen'. I'd never heard of it so I looked it up. The Wikipedia entry on it made me laugh out loud. Insane stuff for a well respected firm to be putting out. Thought I'd share with the group.....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindenburg_Omen
 
GJ gets my vote for analogy stretcher of the month.

I like the Hinenburg stuff. I wonder if they need another creative mind....
 
I think some (basic, robust) TA is valid, but only as part of a broader cognisance of what's going on in the market (one pillar out of three, the others being fundamentals and what I've always liked to call 'context', which is a kind of catch all for positioning, sentiment, structural oddities etc).

The problem, going back to the OP, is that for the non institutional trader, TA is the one pillar that sees them on something better approaching (but not, it must be said, necessarily truly replicating) a level playing field with the large institutions.

Anyone can find a chart and conduct some half assed, lazy T.A. but to me thats like saying you're doing the same thing as David Beckham if you run around Hackney Marshes on a sunday wheezing and booting a football twenty feet up in the air shouting 'Ave It!!!' and on a wednesday evening once a week you turn up for 'training' which consists of an hour in a sports hall dribbling round some cones followed by a quick pint in the local talking 'tactics' with your mates. Doesn't mean you're doing the other things that he does - i.e. methodically researched, minutely planned training, and scientifically based, personally tailored health, rehabilitation and nutrition, it's just that the bit where you boot the football around is the accessible bit that anyone with a football, some mates and a couple of jumpers can replicate. The rest takes infrastructure and time / resources commitment, so most people don't engage in it.

That said even at the top level, where there are people in investment banks paid serious sums just to specialise in TA research etc, there is some proper rubbish written.

Someone recently sent me something talking about a 'Hindenburg Omen'. I'd never heard of it so I looked it up. The Wikipedia entry on it made me laugh out loud. Insane stuff for a well respected firm to be putting out. Thought I'd share with the group.....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindenburg_Omen

What part were you laughing at? (With the exception of maybe the term "fortnight.") The most important criteria for this is that new highs and new lows become prominent simultaneously. Though in this case I believe that it just means increased volatility (mkt may move up or down).
 
I was laughing at how long winded and arcane the definition was, and, once one delves deeper, how arbitary some of the parameters are, not to mention the fact that they were calculated (backtested!!!!!!!!) so long ago I wasn't even alive (and I'm OLD, man).

How can I laugh at people who take the bible, written 2000 years ago, literally, holding up it's every word as fresh and relevant in today's digital world, and NOT laugh at this stuff?

I try so hard not to be a hypocrite. I would wholeheartedly endorse the old adage that hell's fires burn hottest for such people if I weren't an atheist (as that, in and of itself would make me one right?). Hey, wait, that means there's no hell, so I can be a hypocrite, so I can endosrse something that talks about hell and, er, is, er, anti hypocrite.

I'll shut up now.
 
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I was laughing at how long winded and arcane the definition was, and, once one delves deeper, how arbitary some of the parameters are, not to mention the fact that they were calculated (backtested!!!!!!!!) so long ago I wasn't even alive (and I'm OLD, man).

How can I laugh at people who take the bible, written 2000 years ago, literally, holding up it's every word as fresh and relevant in today's digital world, and NOT laugh at this stuff?

I try so hard not to be a hypocrite. I would wholeheartedly endorse the old adage that hell's fires burn hottest for such people if I weren't an atheist (as that, in and of itself would make me one right?). Hey, wait, that means there's no hell, so I can be a hypocrite, so I can endosrse something that talks about hell and, er, is, er, anti hypocrite.

I'll shut up now.

1.The daily number of NYSE new 52 Week Highs and the daily number of new 52 Week Lows are both greater than 2.2 percent of total NYSE issues traded that day. Based on approximately 3100 NYSE issues, the 2.2% threshold is 69.

My favourite number and completely arbitrary. I still can't help but chuckle when this number comes up in a day. Ah to be 14 again :)
 
Isnt one of the arguments for TA that all the fundamentals are in the charts?

Think you can make TA or fundies as complicated or simple as you like. The simpler the better....

Green arrows are an obv buy
 

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Hello,
Yes i think Technical analysis is the easy option.analysts believe that the historical performance of stocks and markets are indications of future performance.

In a shopping mall, a fundamental analyst would go to each store, study the product that was being sold, and then decide whether to buy it or not. By contrast, a technical analyst would sit on a bench in the mall and watch people go into the stores. Disregarding the intrinsic value of the products in the store, the technical analyst's decision would be based on the patterns or activity of people going into each store.

thanks!!
 
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Shopping mall is a fair analogy. Why research 100 different products when you can just watch 1000 people who have done the research and see what they buy?

Of course, I don't know why it's a good product but who cares as long as it's a good price, I'm going to sell it on anyway, not marry it.
 
TA is not an easy. it takes time to learn and high discipline to trade. Before making a choice between TA and FA you have to ask what time-frame you trade.

As an example, if you trade intraday 1-minute bars FA will not help you at all and the only way to g is TA.

FA may help you on higher time-frames when you you are betting on the longer-term trend.

Both TA and FA will not help you on longer-term time frames if you apply the to a single stock and do not analyse the whole market. You should see when the stock market crashes and when it is pumped as it is affect your stock.
 
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